According to Strategic Forecasting, the US and Hugo Chavez’ Government have some sort of secret understanding such that the US Government will not interfere with internal politics if Chavez guarantees supplies of oil in case of a US-Iraq war:

“Venezuelan relations have shifted dramatically since President Hugo Chavez hinted in news interviews last April that the Bush administration supported the political violence that briefly toppled him. This new relationship is based on mutual self-interest. In return for guaranteed oil supplies and anti-terror cooperation, Chavez apparently believes the Bush administration will not interfere in his country’s domestic political crisis”

I find this hard to believe. First of all, it would imply trust in Hugo Chavez which he has done nothing to earn. Second, it would imply strengthening Chavez’ position at a time when he might be getting ready to purge the military and guarantee mantaining a stronghold in the country for a long time. I can’t believe the US would like a strong Chavez so close to home and is willing to go all the way to Iraq to get rid of Saddam. Third, US policy certainly does not seem to be unified when it comes to Chavez. There are reports of a CIA meeting on Venezuela to understand what may happen in the near future and Otto Reich’s comments on “nobody copying” the Venezuelan model are not exactly very friendly ones. While I could see why right now the US would like Venezuela to be quiet, they may have just sent the opposition a message to delay any coup attempt.

(Note added the next day: Now Stratfor says a local group is ready to stage a coup and the Chavez Government will declare a state of emergency to avert it…as ususal in Venezuela…stay tuned…)

One of the things that blogs can do is keep journalists honest. The ability to link text to solid reference is unique to the blogging process. We have to take advantage of this to erradicate lies, misconceptions and propaganda from the news. I had not posted in the last few days because I was so annoyed at an article about Venezuela in the San Francisco Bay View, that I did not know even where to start writing about it or how to go about it. In the end after my brother’s comment (I agree with every single word he said) on it, I think I will concentrate on the factual inaccuracies of the article, providing a link whenever possible (the process can be endless!!). I can’t help commenting on other statements in the article that I strongly disagree with.

As pointed out by Tyromaniac, the term African-Venezuelan simply does not exist. There is certainly discrimination in Venezuela, but is not based on the color of your skin (except for racism against Indians) but mostly against women and what I would call social discrimination, that is discrimination based on social status. The country has a mostly mixed population, with about 20% white, 8% black, 3% indian and the rest mestizo. In fact the most recent report by the UN Committe on the elimination of Racial Discrimination that is on the web, mentions women, indians and poor but fails to mention blacks even once.

To call President Chavez the first multi-racial President Venezuela has had, is absurd and I have certainly never hear people call him “negro”. In fact the term “negro” in Venezuela carries a friendly connotation. In fact, the Minister of Education who is mentioned in the article had a TV program until recently calle Blanco y Negro, referring to the last name of one host and the fact that Minister Isturiz is black. In fact the racial mix in the country is such that look at the picture of Chavez’ wife (He is divorcing her). In fact Mr. Chavez is the typical mestizo with some indian blood. But he is no black. He might be a little darker than former President Luis Herrera Campins, but not by much.

That blacks have taken control of the University is to me no big deal. Barlovento is indeed an area populated mostly by blacks that arrived in the XVIth. century from other Spanish colonies as slaves. They were freed in the XVIIIth. century. That a black got to be its President is natural. The University was not created by this Government, has been around for a while, so what’s new?

While it is true that the new Constitution gives the right for indian tribes to recover their lands, there is no equivalent for blacks. What there is, is a controversial Land reform bill, which would allow the Government to takeover unused lands from the private sector. Curiously this “revolutionary”  bill would never give ownership rights to the farmer!!!. Moreover, I always wonder why the Government has to go and expropriate private lands when it owns close to 60% of the land of the country. How come we never talk about giving that away?. Finally, land for what? As with all Latin American countries, Venezuela has become largely an Urban country where true agricultural activities which are sustainable and profitable require large tracts of lands and technology.

President Chavez never received 70% of the vote in the two Presidential elections. He got 56.2% in 1998 and 60.3% in 2000. Yes, people voted for him, they thought he would bring a Governemnt of law and order and prosperity. Instead, the economy has shrunk by 9.8% in the first half of 2002 despite the two years of extremely high oil prices (This is the largest contraction in history). The currency has devalued from Bs. 776 on Jan. 1 to Bs. 1463 this week. Unemployment has hit 19.5% the highest in 20 years, despite the fact that there is a decree which prohibits anybody from firing anyone. I would like to know how can “small bussinesses flourish”, as the article says, with an economic contraction of close to 10%.

The article states that when President Chavez became President 80% of the population lived below the poverty line, I will not argue about the number, University studies that I  know of say it is less than 70%, but what I do know is that since Hugo Chavez became President 1.5 million people have joined the ranks of the poor. He has now been in power for four years, he can longer blame the past. He is on an ego trip. While he claims to hurt for the poor he bought a $65 million Airbus with jacuzzi for his trips abroad. He has spent six months of the three and a half years he has been in power travelling. He says summits are useless, but doesn’t miss one.

In April, Chavez had 19 people killed as they demonstrated peacefully against him and he resigned. His own Chiefs of Staff announced his resignation and there is a video where he states it explicitly. But when he realized they would not let him leave  the country and had to stand trial for the deaths, he refused to sign his resignation. (There is even a tape of him asking for US$ 7 million to leave). His party has refused to approve the nomination of an independent “truth” commission to determine what happened. Yes, some people tried to take over aftwerward with a coup, but he did resign beforehand. No more than 2,000 people took to the streets and most of them were looting, not calling for his return. Yes, Hugo Chavez was elected, so was Hitler in 1933. But as time goes on, Hugo Chavez becomes more and more dictatorial (see my previous posts on the Supreme Court). If the Courts rule against him they are terrible, if people want to demonstrate against him he decrees “special secirity” zones to stop them. Is that a democracy?

The truth is that people voted for Hugo Chavez looking for law and order and economic growth. They got neither. They did not vote for a revolution. Recent polls give him 30% of popularity, but in an area of indigenous population where his support is even higher, Chavez’ MVR party got less than 5% of the vote in a recent mayoral election. So even his supporters are no longer willing to go out for him.

Finally I reply to the closing arguments of the article:

1) Hugo Chavez has had a tendency to visit mostly undemocratic leaders. Look at my Fable. I have pictures with him with all sorts of dictatorial leaders, but I was able to find only two pictures with democrats. He visits Fidel Castro regularly. He calls the Cuban system “a sea of happiness” while the US has “savage capitalism”. Is this friendly towards the US?. No way. When a 1999 flood destroyed a whole state Chavez refused the aid of the US Army Corp of Engineers which was going to rebuild for free a coastal highway in two months. Two years later the highway is unfinished. (Curiously, this highway leads to some of the coastal towns whose population is mostly black…)

2) He did not condemn the attacks of Sept. 11th. Period. That is a fact. In fact, his then Minister of Foreign Relations, today Vice-President, even explained why. Only later when the US expressed outrage did they condemn it.

3) President Chavez has indeed condemned Colombian guerillas. But this is a recent position.

4) President Chavez wrote a letter to famous Venezuelan terrorist Carlos The Jackal in which he oppenly supports “his Cause”. Is this consistent with being anti-terrorist?

Yes, we will get rid of Mr. Chavez before he destroys the country and will replace him with a true democratic system. We will do it within his Constitution that he now disrespects. In fact, it is within the Constitution for him to resign and leave, we will take care of the rest. Sorry for the length…I could have gone on, the article is so bad.  

One last comment: How come these articles never mention Mr. Chavez attempted to overthrow the Government in 1992 in a bloody coup attempt?

Havent posted for a while, the rally on Thursday took a lot of energy. I actually tried to upload some of the pictures I took, but I am not sure why it doesn’t work. I did it once before and it worked so its strange.

Anyway, extremely succesfull rally on Thursday. The area was packed and in defiance with the Governemnt’s pseudo-permit, it lasted until past 9:30 PM. Clearly, the Government backed out of its threats but it is unclear why. Some say it was the OAS that called the President, others say it was the military that told Chavez he could not do that. Hard to tell, I like the second explanation better.

The next step is to march on Oct. 10th. In some sense, Chavez’ decree has galvanized the opposition, making it realize that individual ambitions should not get in the way of the objective at hand. Let’s hope it lasts.

Perhaps the most significant political act of the week went laregly unnoticed. Enrique Mendoza, the Governor of Miranda State appears to have decided to increase his visibility. Up to now Mendoza has been extremely careful with not looking like a Presidential candidate, probably fearing that he might peak too early. But this week, he said on Tuesday night that he would give the rally a permit, which has no legal basis. Furthermore, Mendoza appeared repeatedly on TV on Wednesday and had a radio appearance on Thursday. I contend that Mendoza is the ideal person to lead Venezuela in a post-Chavez transition term. He is liked by both lower and middle classes, he is a pragmatist and has been extremely succesful as Governor. In some sense, he is the anti-Chavez, unassuming and always has a good word for everyone, including our President!!

Can’t put up my pictures but you can find some here or here, a very peaceful rally. You can also find pictures of the repression the Friday before.

Today was the fifth month anniversary of the march on April 11th. which led to the brief departure of President Cahvez from office due to the deaths of 18 people. To date, the Government has blocked all efforts to establish an independent “truth” commission which would establish what happened that tragic day.

While the opposition did not agree on the tactic, somebody suggested creating traffic jams today in the city as a way of commemorating and protesting the deaths on April 11th. Because people are quite mad, the idea took hold and even if there were threats and opposition to the idea by most political parties, numerous groups created serious disruptions of traffic.

Imagine how Kafka-like it feels then to have Government spokesmen saying all day that this demonstrated the illegal ways of the opposition, who have no respect for the law or rights of others, only to have these same Government supporters  block with an illegal demonstration a main avenue in downtown Caracas in the afternoon. Moreover, since the beginning of the year crowds have ilegally gathered repeatedly around the Presidential Palace without any attempt to remove them. Today however, the opposition protest was met by large presence of the National Guard, the intelligence police and even the Army in some places. Such is the way of this virtual reality created by Chavez and his supporters in which everything is twisted around, changed and reinterpreted to support the whims of the Chavez “revolution”. We all say it can’t last much longer, but it does and we continue immersed in this surrealistic virtual reality day after day……

On Sunday an OAS/PNUD/Carter Center commission arrived in Venezuela to attempt to establish a dialogue that will reduce tensions in the country. President Chavez himself came back on Saturday from the Johannesburg meeting. While one would think that things would be quiet prior to the arrival of such a commission. the opposite has been true. In fact, it appears as if the level of confrintation continues to go up:

-President Chavez announces that the Government will confiscate companies that participate in a General strike later in the month.

-President Chavez says he will create a new union Federation to make sure the will of the workers is represented.

-Venezuela resumes sending shipments of oil to Cuba under a treaty that has been questioned in the Supreme Court and has not been approved by the National Assembly as required by the Constitution.

-President Chavez presents a video purported to show that a video broadcast on April 11th., the day of the massacre against innocent civilians, was made before the deaths occurred, citing a CNN reporter. Within hours, the reporter says he has been used.

-An opposition group rejects the participation of the Carter Center in the mediation, arguing that the Center was invited by the Government, while the other two organizations were not.

-Union, a party created by a former Chavez friend says that Chavez is hiding the evidence of his responsability in the deaths on April 11th.

-AD leader: Chavez has to be kicked out democratically.

-A bomb is placed at the home of one of the leading Governemnt Deputies.

-General under possible trial says he is being threatened.

-Vice-President calls on the opposition to avoid “an explosion”.

-Socialist League: The 11 judges of the Supreme Court, who voted not to try the Generals for the events in April, should be tried for covering up the facts.

-The Commander of the Army gathers all military leaders and says he wants the Army out of politics.

You be the judge of which side induces more confrontation. What is clear is that tensions are building up very fast, boding badly for the short and medium term future of the country. 

The mood in Caracas was tense tonight as a retired official was jailed as he visited the military commisary. At the same time, an active General of the National Guard issued an open letter to its members calling for “a rescue of the principles and values” of the National Guard, in apparent reference to the events of the last week involving the Guard in which women demonstrators were physically hurt as well as insulted by a National Guard General. Meanwhile, leaders of AD and the workers union were expressing their concern of a possible coup or civilian movement to oust Chavez in the face of an increasing deterioration of the economy. A General strike seems to be a given, the only question is just when it will take place. After a day of demonstrations in front of a military facility, the Supreme Court has yet to grant an injunction to stop military courts from indicting the Generals that participated in the April events. Reportedly, some of these cases were postponed for one month, which will not only allow for the Supreme Court to be back but it will go against the President’s wish to have all these officials out by Sept. 15th. conspirators on both sides also met secretly around the city planning strategy. What a day!!!

Venezuela may be on a collision course similar to that that took place in April as President Hugo Chavez is clearly challenging the military to attempt to overthrow him by provoking them into action before there is consensus that he needs to go.

As detailed here the Venezuelan Supreme Court decided on August 14th. that there was no reason to try four Generals for their part on the events in April. According to Venezuelan law, the Court has to find evidence against any high ranking military in order for a military Court to  try the official. Well, reportedly, military courts are ready to try and find guilty as many as 300 officers in the next few days beginning with four Generals tomorrow. If found guilty all the officers would be discharged, essentially cleaning the military ranks of all officers who do not support the President.

The possibility that the President may do this is actually far-fetched in the sense that there would clearly be a reaction from those officers who are more institutional than pro or agaisnt Hugo Chavez. Thus, the theory around Caracas is that Chavez wants to provoke these Generals into overthrowing him as a way of forcing them out into the open and clean the military from all possible opposition. The high ranking military will attempt to defend their positions via the Supreme Court in the next few days, but if the Court does not give them protection it might be too late for them to act. In any case, a conflict may be brewing and it may reach the proportions of that in April, which ended tragically. By forcing the hand of the high ranking officers, the President may be looking to forcing them into action before they are ready. Many of the high ranking officers that would remain have said that they will support the President only as long as he respects the Constitution. Stay tuned…

In a little noted mayoral election in a rural area in the West of Venezuela, these were the results:

New Time Coalition   47.5%

AD Coalition              30.7%

MPS                           10.4%

MEP                            6.6%

MVR(Chavez)            4.8%

Other                          3.3%

This was not insignificant. Chavez’ own brother campaigned in the town for MVR’s candidate, so did two of his Cabinet Ministers. Despite this in an area where they should have won running away, they lost. Moreover, the previous mayor (who passed away) was elected for the MVR party.  The only explanation, given other polls that say MVR holds roughly 20% popularity is that MVR supporters simply did not feel motivated to go and vote for their candidate.

What a crazy craziness is this craziness

(The following article is a humor piece published in a local paper, El Nacional, and liberally translated by me. In some sense it reflects the difficulties of trying to explain to others what is happening in my country, my reason for creating The Devil’s Excrement. Enjoy (if you can)!!)

By Claudio Nazoa

An Argentinean friend named Carlos Mamut, called me on the phone from his country worried by the images that he was seeing on TV about Venezuela.

As the conversation went on, I became conscious of the craziness we are living in, of which we are not always aware, because we are so immersed in it. My theory is that all Venezuelans have gone crazy. The first thing any self-respecting nut knows, is that he is sane and the rest of the people are not, which is the reason why I ask all of you to analyze and think seriously about the severity of what is happening to us without realizing what is happening: There are twenty million demential Venezuelans, each one of which thinks he is sane and that the other nineteen million nine hundred and ninety nine thousand nine hundred and ninety nine are insane. You don’t believe it? I didn’t believe it either until I had a conversation with Carlos Mamut, mi Argentinean friend, which I taped and transcribed faithfully to support this theory

-Hi, Claudio?

-Yes, it’s me, who is it?

-Shit, don’t you recognize me?

-It’s me Carlos Mamut

-Carlitos, to what do I owe this miracle?

-Well, what can I say? I had to call. I am watching on CNN that an opposition group is in front of the Presidential Palace, burning tires and throwing stones. Tell, me what is happening in Venezuela?

-Claudio, that is not the opposition, the ones throwing stones are Government supporters.

-Don’t be nuts Carlitos, that is the opposition. How can Government supporters create havoc, put up barricades and throw stones? I saw the police repressing the demonstration!

-Well, yes, what happens is that…I don’t know how to explain it, but it happens that the police are the Government’s enemy; nevertheless they are trying to stop the demonstrators from overthrowing the Government.

-Listen to yourself, you are saying nutty things, I am watching on TV hooded demonstrators shooting against the marchers that are going towards the Presidential Palace.

-You are right, and now that you mention it I don’t understand it either, the point is that the demonstration that you are watching is in favor of the Government and those that are shooting, are shooting against the cops which are led by the Mayor of Caracas, who by the way is not in favor of the Government.

-Nuts! Are you kidding me? I have just seen the Mayor of Caracas saying that he backs Chávez.

-Carlos you have to understand that that is another Mayor, I am talking about the one that does not back him.

-Ah! The one that directs the cops?

-No! The police are being led by the Mayor that backs Chavez; I am referring to the Metropolitan police

-Well, the Metropolitan police does not belong to Caracas?

-Yes! But that one belongs to another Mayor, the one that does not back him!

-Definitely Claudio you are dumb! Calm down and explain to me the following: is the National Guard that is there is to protect its bosses, the officials that are being tried?

-Nooo….! I don’t have to calm down! I am not exalted! Don’t you understand? Those are officials that do not command the National Guard, because they don’t back the Government. They don’t! And what the National Guard  is trying to do is stop the Government’s supporters from hitting the police that does not back the Government but that are trying to defend the buildings of the Government ,even if the Mayor does not back the Government.

-Do me a favor Claudio, relax, and as a friend I suggest you stop drinking Scotch. Have  tea, or something like it, you are going crazy!

-Sorry Carlos, you are right. I think we have all gone crazy, but the only way to remain sane is to drink all the Scotch I can. But I am going to tell you something, the only person in Venezuela who is not crazy is me!

B.R. 101 Was there a coup in Venezuela in April?

I have been asked twice this question since I started posting to this blog. As with everything in the last three years in Venezuela the answer is not a simple yes or no. Perhaps it is best answered by saying there was no coup against Hugo Chavez, there was a coup against the Constitution.

Let’s review the events as they took place:

-A peaceful march was led to the Presidential Palace asking for the President’s resignation. The march was so peaceful that people took their children, even babies and pets.

-According to the testimony of three Gerenals who are former Chavez collaborators, the President attempted to activate an army plan called “Plan Avila”  to supress the demonstration. This plan is a contingency plan used when there is violence or unrest and involves the takeover of the capital by the Armed Forces. The  plan was designed more than ten years ago, had never been implemented and according to many violates the new Constitution approved and proposed by Chavez and his supporters.

-When the march is close to the Presidential palace, it is fired upon by people on a bridge above the crowd and from two buildings. All three of these sites were very close to the Presidential Palace which had been surrounded by the President’s supporters.

– The same three Generals that disobeyed the President’s orders appear on TV asking the President to resign, blaming him for the massacre.

-The Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, a close Chavez supporter, appears on TV and says the President has resigned. The President asks for an airplane to leave the country, some of the Generals says he has to stay in the country to be tried for the massacre. At that point the President says he will not sign his resignation if forced to stay. (There is even a tape where a General says he is asking for US$ 7 milliom). 

To me up to this point there is no coup or millitary rebellion, no force has been used, his own close collaborators announced that he had resigned. Chavez is jailed. It is from this point on that something like a coup or violations of the Constitution take place.

-The military that had asked for the President’s resignation name the Head of the Chambers of Commerce and one of the leaders of the General Strike of the previous days, as temporary President. He issues a decree in which he dissolves the National Asembly and the Supreme Court as well as renaming the country to what it used to be called until the new Cosntitution was approved.

-The OAS and some foreign Governments begin asking for a signed resignation of the President. People begin calling the decree by the new President a coup, the same military that named him, forced the new President to resign, Chavez returns brought in part at the request of a General who says the Constitution has to be respected. Chavez names as his Minister of Defense the same General who publicly said he had resigned and initiated this whole process.

To me there was no coup against Hugo Chavez, he resigned and should not have come back and should be tried for the massacre that took place on April 11th. The problem was that the Vice-President should have taken over to follow the Constitution. Only if the Vice-President had resigned could somebody different have been named. Thus, there was an attempt to violate the Constitution which interestingly enough was immediately reacted to. Chavez violates the Constitution regularly and nothing happens. Such is life in what Chavez calls the Vth. Republic!!!