The Devil's Excrement

The Government and its apologists have dared suggest that it was actually the opposition that organized the attack on the synagogue in order to make the Government look bad. This goes in line with the message the Government likes  to convey that it is the opposition which is violent and uses force, but we all know otherwise.

But the case of the Venezuelan Government’s anti-Semitism can not be disguised in any form. It was Chávez and his Government that introduced hate against Israel and the Jewish population of Venezuela. While it took a while for Chávez to begin preaching his hate, what he learned from his mentor Ceresole began surfacing and have led to:

—Public statements by Hugo Chávez blaming Jews for killing Christ, Simón Bolivar and taking possession of the wealth in the world:

The world is for all of us, then, but it so happens that a minority, the descendents of the same ones that crucified Christ, the descendents of the same ones that kicked Bolivar out of here and also crucified him in their own way over there in Santa Marta, in Colombia. A minority has taken possesion all of the wealth of the world, a minority has taken ownership of all of the gold of the planet, of the silver, of the minerals, the waters, the good lands, oil, of the wealth then and have concentrated the wealth in a few hands

–Two separate raids on Hebraica, a Jewish educational and cultural center in the East of Caracas. In one of them, it was led by the intelligence police, using rifles and terrorizing the 1,500 kids at the school.

-Twice the Venezuelan government has broken relations with Israel either by withdrawing its Ambassador or expelling Israel’s Ambassador to Venezuela, the last one over the recent Gaza incidents, the only country in the world to do so over Israel’s exaggerated attacks.

-The official TV station VTV continuously promotes hate against Israel, but including the Jewish people in its propaganda.

-Material in Pro-Chávez website aporrea.org is certainly offensive and discriminatory as noted by Daniel recently. While this particular article was pulled (because Daniel wrote about it?), this is the first such incident in which an Editorial comment is made and an article removed.

-Former Vice-President Jose Vicente Rangel in his regular column under his “Marciano” byline wrote this week an article accusing Yon Goicochea, Antonio Ledezma and Henrique Capriles, The “Satanic Trio” of having the backing of Mossad and setting up an intelligence network to destabilize the Government with Mossad’s help.

-Government media, including VTV and radio Nacional de Venezuela began blaming the attack first on the opposition and have now shifted to blame Mossad.

Of course, throughout all this, the Government has failed to condemn the constant attacks on the Venezuelan Jewish population. This is part of the revolution by now, the promotion of hate against groups of citizens. By now, it has become institutionalized in the Government’s rhetoric. Once you start a campaign like that, it is extreemly difficult to go back on it.

Additionally, it is ludicrous to suggest that the opposition staged the attack and desecration of the Mariperez synagogue.

To begin with, that synagogue is located in the only municipality in Caracas controlled by a Chavista Mayor and not an opposition one and the Government controls the Metropolitan Police. It would be quite difficult, to say the least, to plan and carry out such an operation without the authorities noticing it. The raiders spent five hours at the synagogue, opened two safes and took some computers containing the database of all Jews in Venezuela. Is that scary or what?

But simply look at this picture of the signs left on a heavily trafficked avenue (even at 3 AM!), Avenida Principal de Mariperez by the attackers:

Not only is the whole gate covered with paint but note the X’s on the Star of David on both sides. (There were also swastikas in many places on the wall). Given that this is a main avenue, you have to be pretty confident the police will not go by while you are doing it. Additionally, on January 15th. there was a demonstration in front of the synagogue, the videos made with the cameras in the picture were turned over to the Government, the raiders made sure to take the videos of their raid with them.

But on top of that, the investigative police showed up at 6 AM looked around and failed to look for fingerprints and/or any other form of evidence. This is absolutely not standard procedure. It was only the day after newspapers reported this surprising behavior by the investigative police (FBI or MI6 type of police), that the police came back to get evidence.

But I think Jewish leaders have been somewhat naive with Hugo Chávez, always giving him the benefit of the doubt, despite the repeated statements and threats. In fact, as recent as August of last year, a group of Jewish leaders came to venezuela and seemed to buy Chavez’ goodwill after so many statements and incidents. They know better now…

But this will be just like the Anderson case, the Prosecutor that was assasinated and whose killer was never found. In the middle, opposition figures were jailed and exiled (to this day), but the “star” witness turned out to have been in a Colombian jail when he supposedly was present at meetings planning the assasination. All roads pointed to Anderson’ unusual life style, but that was never investigated. Nothing will happen in this case either.

Where in the world can the President of a country have a whim on Saturday night that disrupts people’s life and have it implemented within hours in violation of the law?

This is exactly what happened in Venezuela this weekend, as Hugo Chavez gave a speech after playing softball last Saturday and in the middle of it decided to pat himself on the back and declare today a National Holiday in honor of the great job he thinks he has done ver the last ten years.

Never mind that he did not have the power to do it. Never mind that he disrupted plans and schedules.  Never mind that he caused damages to produce and shipments and delayed  bank transfers and payments. Never mind that Venezuela is poorer tonight because of his stupid whim.

But despite the fact that it was illegal, as the decision to make today a National Holiday was not published in the official gazette in advance as required by law, the Government used all of its power and instilled fear on people to insure that they did not go to work today.

Because when you threaten everyone all the time, reminding people that the revolution is armed, it certainly comes in handy when you want something obeyed, even if it is illegal and stupid.

And today it worked. First, the Government immediately began saying it would fine any company that did not abide by the autocrat’s whims. This, despite the fact that there was no legality to back the fines. Second, the Government had the Banking association issue a press release that the banks would follow. Of course banks followed, for most of them the only business model is receive Government deposits in exchange for commissions they pay out. And they think they will live happily ever after.

And then today, the Government used both fear and force. Fear because even parking lots that open on holidays were closed. The same with bakeries, restaurants, stores, twenty four hour drugstores all of which are open all but one or two days of the year , but today they were closed.

And then,  just to make sure, the police and the National Guard were sent out to shut down those that dare to open. As if on a National Holiday you were supposed to shut down completely. That is not what the law says or does. If you work, you have to be paid more, as simple as that. It is up to you to evaluate the costs and decide. Factories and the like shutdown, it is just too expensive. But when perishables are involved, or deliveries, or transactions that need to be completed, you go ahead and just do it.

Instead, a Government that has total disregard for efficiency and costs, somehow stupidly associating costs and efficiency with profit, created the fear that it has been cultivating and storing for years.

And it worked…

Because as the TV showed National Guards shutting down businesses, those that are regularly open on similar days and had opened in the morning, began to shut down just in case. By evening very little was open.

So, Caracas felt almost like a State of Siege day, no cars, no people, all commerce shut down. Few, if any, restaurants to go to.

The people are afraid. The years of intimidation have worked. The abuse of power by the Government is a daily affair. Everyone is afraid of the autocrat and his Government. Very few protest.

Caracas was proof of this today. Fear and intimidation rule. Democracy, whatever is left of it, loses.

Saturday it was a despicable attack on the Venezuelan Jewish community and its religion and culture. Today it was a direct attack on the rights of all hard working Venezuelans, tomorrow is anybody’s guess.

Sad, very sad. But get ready for it, unless you want to fight.

The constant disregard for the law and the promotion of the revolution, whatever that may be, is beginning to take its toll in Venezuela. In many cases, while groups ask that the law be followed, the Government ignores it or forgets about it if in doing so, it will promote the revolution.

The problem is that these days, it is the Government that is in both sides of the conflict or the controversy and there is a significant breakdown in the established order which threatens to get out of hand as it did last week in Barcelona in Anzoategui State.

The conflict began when MMC, the company that assembles Mitsubishi cars in Venezuela, decided to terminate its outsourcing contract with a  company called Induservis at the end of 2008. This was a legal and valid decision by MMC and why it did it should be of no concern or importance to anyone outside the company.

Except that as the rule of law has broken down, pro-Chávez unions have learned that they are on the side of strength and they decided that they would not accept the decision by MMC and would go beyond it: they began demanding that MMC directly hire all of the 135 Induservis workers.

The company obviously refused, as it just wanted to switch which company provided the maintenance services, not add to its payroll at a time when the auto industry in Venezuela faces a sharp drop in production and sales.

When it refused to hire them, then the union of workers of MMC backed the take over of the company’s installations by the 135 Induservis workers, holding regular MMC workers hostages inside the facility and threatening not to leave until the MMC hired them all.

MMC went to Court and asked for three separate injunctions, demanding that the authorities act and remove the workers who had taken over the company and the release of the workers who were inside.

A judge granted the injunction and when the Judge went to the MMC installations with the police of Anzoategui State the workers turned violent against the police and the owners of the plant and in the ensuing scuffle with the police, two of the workers were shot dead by the police.

Now, just as a refresher, Anzoategui State has been run by Chavismo for the last ten years and its current Governor Tarek William Saab is a staunch Chavista supporter, but it was his police that killed the workers.

Nothing has been resolved. the plant remains under the control of the workers who demand to be hired, the judge’s orders have not been implemented, fifty cops have been suspended and there seems to be no way to resolve the conflict.

Now all of the auto unions are threteneing with a strike, everyone is blaming the other side and no cars are being built. And has been the case in most of similar cases, nobody dares intervene to resolve it. Maybe they are trying to figure out first on which side of the conflict Hugo chavez stands, before acting.

Of course, today they are all celebrating how we got here during the last ten years.

1. Because only Chavez guarantees that the crime problem will not be solved and Venezuela will be able to hold the record for most homicides per 100,000 inhabitants and only the poor are affected by this.
2. Because only with Chavez will Venezuela continue spending billions of dollars in military weapons which will one day allow us to invade any country we want.
3. Because only with Chavez will public services get worse and I love eating by candle light and the smell of garbage.
4. Because only Chavez insures that few people will their own house and if I don’t have one, why should anyone else?
5. Because only under Chavez will we be able to prove whether Venezuela can have 100% inflation per year.
6. Because Chavez is the only guarantee that a few Venezuelans will become multi-millionaires thanks to rampant corruption and a new wealthy Chavista oligarchy will replace (has replaced?) the old one.
7. Because only under Chavez will my whole family be able to find jobs in Government-owned companies doing little and with no discipline.
8. Because only Chavez will make the rich poor.
9. Because only Chavez will keep sending billions of dollars in gifts to other countries in Latin America, most richer than Venezuela.
10. Because only under Chavez will the public hospital system finally collapse and all Government workers will get private insurance and be able to use private clinics.

And all of it will be done with love…Vote SI

And to celebrate what a great guy he is and what a wonderful job he has done in the last ten years, Hugo Chavez decided today to make tomorrow a holiday, the anniversary of when he first assumed the Presidency. Of course, he hopes to pick up a votes along the way.

I think there is no better way to celebrate his autocracy…maybe it should be permanent, Hugo Chavez Day, or the Autocrat´s Day, or Abuse of Power Day, or Look Ma! I can do anything I want Day…

Capitalism, Socialism, Oligarchs, Revolutionaries, IVth. Republic, Vth. Republic. It is all empty words, rhetoric for Venezuelans when you see the plot below which shows oil export revenues (in blue) and oil export revenues per capita (in red) from a presentation by Economist Miguel Angel Santos:

As you can see, oil export revenues per capita are still below the peaks of the 70’s at US$ 3,500 per capita. So people felt better in the 70’s because of this and these same revenues keep people going today. But little has changed, there was no model then, there is no model today.

It’s the Devil’ Excrement.

If one reason to vote Si in the upcoming referendum is to pay back Chavez’s love, because “you pay love with love”, a reason to vote No is that Chavez’ hate begets hate too and a shameful act of desecration took place last night.

After the approximately fifteen men subdued the guards at the synagogue, they spent about five hours destroying property, including throwing on the floor the sacred Torah rolls and painting the walls with anti-semitic and anti-Israel slogans.As the armed men left the synagogue they were shooting int the air and a rabbi said some of the cars were police patrol cars.

While the Government tried to distance itself from the acts, it is Hugo Chavez and his Government that have introduced anti-semitism into politics and Venezuelan life for the first time in history. Recall that Chavez’ mentor Norberto Ceresole was a rabid anti semite and Holocaust denier and that the Venezuelan Government has twice raided the Hebraica Club in Eastern Caracas and twice broken relations with Israel.

The jewish community in Venezuela has dwindled since Chavez came to power and as the President of the Asociasion Israelita said today “We feel threatened and now attacked”.

This is another violation of the international law, the laws of Venezuela and an additional violations of the human rights of a group of people instigated and promoted by Hugo Chavez himself.

It is another shameful day for Venezuela.

A couple of weeks ago, Quico showed a plot I sent him of monetary liquidity (M2) in US$ divided by Venezuela’s international reserves going back to 1994. M2 is a measure of all of the bolivars in circulation in Venezuela at the official rate of exchange. Because the results were so interesting I decided to go back even further to the 70’s when Carlos Andres Perez was President and the exchange rate was held constant at Bs. (old ones) 4.3 per US$.

Getting all of the data was not easy as the Central Bank had gaps on the exchange rate but I managed to fill all of the holes and the result is shown above.

One can think of this plot as how much backing the Bolivars in circulation have. A value of 1.0 simply says that for each dollar in international reserves there is one dollar in Bolivars in circulation. Thus, at a current value of 3, the plot says that only one third of the Bolivars in circulation are backed by the country’s international reserves.

As you can see the value of 3 has only occurred once in the country’s history, right before what is known as the “Viernes Negro” or Black Friday when Luis Herrera Campins had to do away with the Bs. 4.3 per US$ and the currency devalued dramatically in the ensuing months.

I have noted with red arrows the big devaluations that occurred during this time period and as you can see, except the devaluation by Chavez (more the release of the band system in place at the time) in 2002, all of the other large devaluations were preceded by a sharp rise of the ratio (M2/International Reserves). (Some people like to plot the “implicit” exchange rate, that is how many Bs. in circulation there are for each dollar at the Central Bank, the problem is that this gives you no standard measure due to devaluations to compare things in time, thus looking at this ratio makes historical comparisons better, in any case this “implicit rate today is Bs. 6.56 per US$)

However, as you can see, a sharp rise in M2/Reserves does not suggest a devaluation is imminent, just that it is coming. My sense is that the graph says that Government’s should not let this ratio get so large so as not to get in trouble, but they usually do and eventually there is some crisis that forces devaluation. Luis Herrera held off the crisis and the ratio got so large, because the Fondo de Inversiones de Venezuela had some US$ 30 billion abroad and PDVSA was allowed to keep its excess dollars abroad. As the crisis ensued the Government grabbed the FIV’s money first and later forced PDVSA to send all its dollars to the Central Bank. Once the Government went through those, it was just a matter of time before the currency collapsed in the worst devaluation ever. (The size of the drop each time tells you how large the devaluation was)

Lusinchi on the other hand, left the second Carlos Andres Government essentially no international reserves forcing it to devalue, it was a case of the denominator going to zero, rather than too many Bolivars chasing too few dollars, there were simply no dollars to be had.

Caldera on the other hand had dollars, but inflation was getting out of control, as too many Bolivars were chasing too few goods. When Caldera decided to devalue, inflation was running at over 100% when you annualized the monthly inflation of December 1994 and January 1995.

This is what we are seeing these days. Inflation is accelerating as M2 grows and the sustainability of such a large M2/Reserves has been made possible by the large oil income that has kept reserves large, as M2 has grown excessively. But now, oil is not only sharply down, but the Government just removed another US$ 12 billion from reserves. The Government does have US$ 20 billion in various savings accounts like Fonden, Bandes and PDVSA, but in reality the “real” rate of exchange is not Bs. 2.15 per US$ as the graph assumes, but much higher.

Because what the Government has done is implement a “stealth” devaluation in which fewer and fewer items are given foreign currency at the official rate of exchange. At the same time PDVSA now, Fonden in the first half of 2008, intervene in the parallel swap market selling US$ at the swap rate which is over 2.5 times the official rate. This large arbitrage distorts things in the economy and commerce, drives inflation up and eventually will force the Government to devalue.

And the ratio will go back down to its normal levels…

If I did not know Felix Tapia and what a serious and responsible guy he is, I may not have believed this pamphlet which is being distributed around the country of the Ten Reasons to vote Yes for Hugo Chavez. If this pamphlet works, then it is clear that I have a very good BS detector and most people don’t. I simply had to translate this garbage for you:

1. Because Chavez loves us and love needs to be paid with love.
2. Because Chavez loves us and is thus incapable of harming us. If he proposes the amendment we know, we feel, he does it for our own good, that of the country and the revolution. He has demonstrated total unselfishness when it relates to the good of the people. Let us remember he placed his military career at risk to get us out of the hopeless black hole that the Government’s of the IVth. Republic used to be. None of the oligarchs has taken the risk for the people and his cause, on the contrary at the first sign of difficulties they shake like headless chickens and run to an Embassy. We now see impostors making themselves look like friends of the humble, they have always looked down on us and they have never sacrificed anything for the poor.
3. Because Chavez and us are one in our goal of providing the citizens with the largest amount of happiness possible. The people with Chavez acquire acquire true power, which is to fuse ourselves with the person governing, be one alone with him, conquering the true Government of the people.
4. Because we are all Chavez and and we express ourselves in him and and with him. To vote with Chavez is to vote for us.To vote for the oligarchs is to vote for our executioners.
5. Because together we make mistakes and together we get it right. With Chavez we are making a Government that is people and people that are Government. Together we begin the beautiful adventure of building a world where man can realize itself with no other limitations than his own abilities.
6. Because when we approve the amendment we strengthen Chavez and strengthen ourselves so that we can purify, rectify and advance, all within the revolution. And without the revolution the hope of the humble dies, we will enter the abyss reserved to the people that surrendered themselves to the praises of their predators.
7. Because without Chavez we will lose the opportunity of showing the Continent, showing humanity, that the path to hell that capitalism proposes can be avoided, that there is hope, that a viable and happy world is plausible, that humanity has a future.
8. Because if the oligarchs govern again, it will be a Government of owners against the humble and destitute, then we will be reduced once again to the life of material and spiritual misery that we had in the Fourth (Republic). Without any hope!
9. Because without Chavez we will postpone once gain the Bolivarian dream. The days of San Pedro Alejandrino can not be repeated, now we will be Paso de los Andes, Ayacucho Carabobo. The memory of the Liberators will not be dishonored. The people do not hand over their kids or their leaders, they don’t exchange their dignity for a plate of lentils.
10. Because with the amendment we will be showing: That we are people that deserve the opportunity to build a world where human relations are determined by by fraternity and love. Never again shall we be negative people, selfish, small, that exchange their future for little mirrors, for sand, for the promises of its executioners.

There you have it, this is all so ludricous, that if you can find one or two of the reasons that you agree with, I think you should consider voting for the SI!

And Teodoro Petkoff responds to the press conference by General Gonzalez Gonzalez:

Sr. General Gonzalez Gonzalez, you responded to our editorial yesterday, addressed, by the way, very respectfully to your person. I am not going to lower myself to the same level you invite me to, which is to disqualify and insult. You pointed me out as a “liar” , as a “deserter” and accused me to be “at the service of treason and anti-homeland”.

You qualified our paper as “junky paper” and a “pamphlet. A curious pamphlet this one which has deserved the honor of a public response from you, accompanied by a group of high officials and the Vice President, from no other place than the Miraflores Palace itself. I thank you for the honor and I am sorry that you spiced it up with personal adjectives that have nothing to do with the problem. With that, you lost, not me. The tone of our Editorial was inviting a serious response, because it is far from our mind to attack the Armed Forces, but it is to point out, side by side with the acknowledgment we made of the “impeccable behavior” of the majority of the the officials of Plan Republica, those cases which are not few, in which officials assumed in recent electoral processes, behavior that is contrary to what it is said in the Constitution and the laws that guide the Plan Republica.

Allow me to ratify such cases because they are true. Moreover, you yourself stated that supposedly, it would be the role of the military to “revise credentials” of witnesses and members of the electoral polls. Well, you are wrong, Sr. General. The revision of the credentials of witnesses and members of polling tables is the exclusive competence of the personnel of those  poling stations, which are all civilians. The Suffrage law establishes clearly that the members of the Armed Forces as part of the Plan Republica have no other purpose but to maintain public order. The law does not give them the attribute you refer to of verifying credentials and determining who may be or not be a witness. That is the exclusive attribute of the President and the members of the polling table. We repeat: You were wrong on that.

We ratify, Sr. General, that there were cases in which electoral polls that had reached closing time without the presence of voters in line and thus should close down the voting process, were forced to and/or there were attempts to force them to remain open, in some cases, to give time so that voters transported by Chavez’ party could arrive. Indeed, Sr. General, as you said, it is only the competence of the Electoral Board (CNE) to establish extensions to the voting process, not the Armed Forces, but unfortunately there were cases in which some officials took that attribute upon themselves and pretended to decide up to what time such polling tables should be opened. You were right, Sr. General, when you said that once a polling table is closed down, within the legal schedule, it can not be reopened. Unfortunately, Sr. General, there were cases in which some officials pretended to (and in some cases they managed it) open the polling stations that had been closed after the time was past and with no voters in line, so that a group of voters transported in a rush by activists of the ruling party coul cast their ballot. All of these cases were denounced to the Electoral Board.

It seems to us Sr. General, that to point out these irregularities not only does not constitute an “attack” on the Armed Forces, but it should have been received as a contribution so that the role of the armed forces is not distorted by some officials that assume the position of political parties, which are constitutionally banned to the armed forces.

Finally Sr. General, I would like you to show Venezuelans in which article of the Constitution it says of the Aremd Forces that “it is at the service of the revolution”, as you allowed yourself to ascertain. I am sorry, but Article 328 of the Constitution says in extremely clear fashion that “In the fullfillment of its functions (The Armed Forces) are at the exclusive service of the Nation and in no case at the service of a person or any political partiality“