Chronicle of a No vote in the Venezuelan referendum

December 2, 2007

I went around and there are some small lines left, not worth taking pictures of them. Then I decided to go and vote at 2 PM, the time when reportedly the stduents were planning to go out. Below, the chronicle of my vote:

   
There were five lines, fairly crowded as I got there, uneven, but roughly 40 people ahreadd of everyone in eachg line. On the left an overview of the school where I vote, on the right the people waiting in line.
   
It started raining, so they moved us under the roof which made it seemed more crowded. On the right the infamous fingerprint system.

   
On the left: Gotcha!                                On the right, the schoolroom where I voted, noted the lady on the right voting, the ballot box also on the right. The lady on the right explained the process to each voter.
   
On the left the screen before I had chosen by vote. On the right a picture of my ballot. I can prove I voted NO on both blocks.


Finally, the terrible indelible ink on my finger. Yuk!

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Not just a day in the life…

December 2, 2007

8:30 AM Reports are that voting is light everywhere, pro-Chavez or pro-opposition.

12:00 AM I took spin around Caracas from one end to the other and it is better than people had told me but it is also a very mixed and somewhat confusing picture.

First I went to my voting center upper middle class and anti-Chavez and lines were not long but it would have taken me about half an hour to vote so I decided to postpone it. I then did a spin nearby and all seemed similar lines maybe 20-50 meters long in definitely pro-Chavez areas.

Then I went towards Petare along the Romulo Gallegos. Near Boleita a lower middle class area that tends to go slightly pro-Chavez (55-60% in his favor), there were longer lines maybe 100-200 meters in length.

Then came the surprises. I went to Petare, pro-Chavez territory and saw four schools, three had no lines whatsoever. In fact I almost missed one because it was empty and was able to park the car and take a picture in the middle of the road (below). The fourth one, by contrast, had the longest lien I saw today about three to four hundred meters.

Then I went the other extreme towards Caricuao, another pro-Chavez area and there were no lines anywhere.

Top left: Center in Petare, extreme East of Caracas, absolutely empty. Right: Center in Caricuao, armored truck and all, also absolutely empty.

I also saw empty centers in Avenida Urdaneta near downtown and Avenida Sucre towards the West.

Left: Instituto de Nuevas Profesiones between Dos Caminos and Boleita and Upel on the right near Boleita.

Left: I think this was Dos Caminos, bad picture taken through the window of the car. Right: Colegio Cervantes en Las Palmas with some lines about 20-50 meters long.

Left: I went this way to take a picture at this school where I took a picture with soldiers in line two years ago, but the street was blocked and the line was all the way down the street, about 200 meters. This is near the Ministry of Education in downtown Caracas, the street goes towards Avenida Baralt. Right: The guy with the motorcycle and the nuns with the shopping bags seem oblivious to the electoral event as a Chavez sign with scribbled No’s on it stands behind them.

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Final parting thoughts before the referendum

December 1, 2007

Lots of people visiting the blog hoping to get some news, but
there is very little. Chavez had to take advantage of his position and ranted in front of the foreign press
his usual stuff, concentrating on CNN being worse than Hitler and going
back a little on his threat of nationalizing the Spanish banks by
saying that he would do so if the Partido Popular wins next year. In
the end he will do what he wants, whenever he wants, so the whole thing
is meaningless. Chavez continues to personalize Venezuela’s Foreign
Relations the same way his egotistical mind personalizes everything and
he refuses to see what a poor job he has done for the people in these
now very long years.
 
As for the outcome, it is
hard to predict what will happen. This year is indeed different, as the
polling firms do show results, which are not only different, but also
fairly consistent among themselves. Last year in the Rosales-Chavez
race, there were a few optimistic pollster, but Datanalisis and Seijas
were giving Chavez a huge lead all along. Just as a reminder,
Datanalisis gave Chavez a 53-26% lead two weeks before the election,
Consultores 21 gave Chavez a 58-41% and Hinteraces gave Chavez a 41-35%
lead, so that things are indeed different this time.
 
The
problem is what the role of abstention will be and while everyone is
focused on the abstention of the No’s and the Ni Ni’s (those that are
not pro- either side), I also believe that abstention among Chavistas
is going to play a role more significant that many are predicting.
Abstention in elections not involving Chavez himself has been high,
such as the referendum to approve Chavez’ new Constitution which had
67% abstention and Chávez was in the height of his popularity. Similar
levels of abstention in the 60% plus category were seen in the regional
elections of 2004. Thus, Chavistas have gone out en force only when
Chavez’ name has been directly involved as a candidate or in the recall
referendum vote of August 2004.
 
Two additional
factors play a role in the pro-Chavez abstention: One, Podemos is a
strong party in many states and this time around they will be driving
but the vote against Chavez. Two, many Governors and Mayors see the
reform as a threat to their own survival. Clearly this works against
Chavez.
 
But there is also large abstention
among Chavez’ opponents who believe that since it is rigged it is not
worth going to vote. Moreover, Venezuela’s have never been to truthful
about their vote intentions, so that even those that claim they are
“likely” to vote are probably not very likely to go. It is shame thing
here to say you are not going.
 
Another positive
notes is that both Datanalisis and Seijas have tended to overestimate
the Chavez vote and underestimate the opposition vote by some 4%
points, so that their recent results may be more positive than some
think.
 
So, to me it is a toss up and I do
believe there is fraud so that the No needs to obtain a large victory
to show a small one. At this time, unless lines are long and huge
tomorrow, my feeling is that the Si edges the No by a small margin, but
I am hopeful that people will go massively and vote and we can squeeze
by 2 or 3 points, fraud and all. In both cases, it will be a huge
defeat for Chavez as he will have a rather weak mandate for his
revolution as I discussed earlier this week. I truly do not believe Chavez can obtain a large victory tomorrow, the numbers clearly say that.
So, let’s
hope my worst moment this weekend was going out to lunch and finding
out I could not order any alcoholic beverages because of the election.
A pity, the food was marvelous as I hope are the results tomorrow.

I will be blogging mostly pictures during the day as I have the time. I do have to go and vote!

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December 1, 2007

Today, General Raul Baduel, Chavez’ buddy and former Minister of Defense published an Op-Ed piece
in the New York Times, copied below, in which he goes far beyond the
criticism of the upcoming referendum and presents a strong and sharp
criticism of Chavez and his Government during the last nine years. The
piece in fact sounds like something written in any of the opposition
blogs and is a devastating criticism of Chavez’ revolution by one of
its founders and one of its loyal participants.

 
The
question is why does Baduel have to go today and publish an article in
English in such a newspaper the day before the Venezuelan referendum on
Constitutional Reform? To me the answer is simply the same as to why
Baduel decided to jump ship a month ago and completely distance himself
from Chavez.
 
First of all, while Baduel claims
to have been with Chavez through “thick and thin”, this is not
precisely the truth. At key moment Baduel played his cards just right
in order to survive and proved in two instances to have done precisely
that.
 
The first time, was in 1992 when
despite Baduel’s role as a founder of the Bolivarian movement he failed
to participate in the bloody coup in February 2002, which failed mainly
because Chávez did not achieve his military objective. Baduel was
supposed to participate in it and there has never been a clear
explanation of why.
 
The second time was during
the events of April 2002, when Baduel did not participate in the group
of military that asked Chavez to resign, did not show up at Fuerte
Tiuna once Chavez had left and waited until the Carmona Government
unraveled to single handedly bring Chavez back to the Presidency. This
act, in the end guaranteed that he would end his military career as a
three star General and Minister of Defense.
 
An
ambitious man, Baduel seems to once again be playing his cards right.
Early in November he saw the weakness in the proposal for
Constitutional reform with voters and within the military and saw his
opportunity to play a role if the No vote won. Baduel clearly
understands that Chávez will not recognize a No victory. Chavez is no
democrat and has never been, he has used democratic votes to his
personal advantage, no more no less. If the No vote wins, Baduel has
played his cards right to be a possible acceptable transition figure
should Chavez not recognize the vote and be forced to leave in the
upcoming days, weeks or months after Sunday’s referendum. He is an
acceptable figure to Chavismo, he has tried to present himself as an
alternative to the opposition and now he wants his position to be well
known internationally before the events of tomorrow may unravel as a
way.
 
I have no idea whether he is right or will
succeed, what I do know is that I don’t like the man. From being
military, to his strange beliefs in his past lives, to his silence
while he was Minister of Defense, to his ability to survive by walking
a very fine gray line, I certainly don’t want to see this man in any
position of power in my country. Ever.
 
But he really does…

Why I Parted Ways With Chávez

By RAÚL ISAÍAS BADUEL
Published: December 1, 2007
Caracas, Venezuela
ON
Dec. 17, 1982, three of my fellow officers in the Venezuelan Army and I
swore our allegiance to the Bolivarian Revolutionary Army 2000. We
considered ourselves to be at the birth of a movement that would turn a
critical eye on Venezuela’s troubled social and political system — and
formulate proposals to improve it. One of the officers with me was Hugo
Chávez, the current president of Venezuela, whom I have known since I
entered the military academy 35 years ago.
Hugo
Chávez and I worked together for many years. I supported him through
thick and thin, serving as his defense minister. But now, having
recently retired, I find myself with the moral and ethical obligation
as a citizen to express my opposition to the changes to the
Constitution that President Chávez and the National Assembly have
presented for approval by the voters tomorrow.
The
proposal, which would abolish presidential term limits and expand
presidential powers, is nothing less than an attempt to establish a
socialist state in Venezuela. As our Catholic bishops have already made
clear, a socialist state is contrary to the beliefs of Simón Bolívar,
the South American liberation hero, and it is also contrary to human
nature and the Christian view of society, because it grants the state
absolute control over the people it governs.
Venezuelan
society faces a broad array of problems that have not been addressed in
the eight years Mr. Chávez has been in office, even though the present
Constitution offers ample room for any decent, honest government to do
so. Inflation, threats to personal safety, a scarcity of basic
supplies, a housing shortage and dismal education and health care are
problems that will not be resolved by approving this so-called reform.
How
is it that we, the people of Venezuela, have reached such a bizarre
crossroads that we now ask ourselves if it is democratic to establish
the indefinite re-election of the president, to declare that we are a
socialist nation and to thwart civic participation?
The
answer is that all Venezuelans, from every social stratum, are
responsible for the institutional decay that we are witnessing. The
elite never understood — and still fail to understand — the need to
include, in every sense, the millions who have been kept at the margins
of the decision-making process because of their poverty. At the same
time, President Chávez led the poor to believe that they are finally
being included in a governmental model that will reduce poverty and
inequality. In reality, the very opposite is true.
In
recent years, the country’s traditional political parties have come to
see the Venezuelan people as clients who can be bought off.
During
the economic boom years, ushered in by a sustained increase in oil
prices, the parties dispensed favors, subsidies and alms. In the end,
they taught the people about rights rather than obligations, thus
establishing the myth that Venezuela is a rich country, and that the
sole duty of a good government is to distribute its wealth evenly.
President Chávez has been buying and selling against this idea,
continuing to practice the kind of neopopulism that will reach its
limit only when the country receives what economists call an “external
shock.”
Exorbitant
public expenditures, the recurrence of government deficits even at
times of record-high oil prices, the extreme vulnerability of foreign
investments, exceedingly high import tariffs, and our increased
domestic consumption of fuel at laughably low prices are all signs of
what lurks on the horizon. It now seems that, even without an
appreciable dip in global oil prices, our economy may well come to a
crashing halt. When it does, it will bring an end to the populism that
the government practices and has tried to export to neighboring
countries.
Venezuela
will thrive only when all its citizens truly have a stake in society.
Consolidating more power in the presidency through insidious
constitutional reforms will not bring that about. That’s why the
Venezuelan people should vote no tomorrow, and prepare to pursue a
political culture that will finally be able to steer our beloved nation
toward true economic and social progress.

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Revolutionary Last Supper Mural

December 1, 2007

M sends this wonderful picture of a mural in Caracas that is as screwed up as the revolution. You can see Andres Bello, Mao, Chavez, Jesus of course, Che Guevara, Simon Bolivar, Guicaipuro and Lenin. (If you recognize more let me know). Funny that Castro is missing and that Chavez does not occupy Jesus’ place. I guess the painter needs more revolutionary education. By the way, Chavez is painted holding the “old” and by now terrible 2000 “blue” Constitution. How passe!

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Hugo Chavez promises 43 more years of his rule as he turns his closing on the reform vote into a rally for a plebiscite

November 30, 2007
With promises of running Venezuela until 2050 if he lives that long, when he will be 95 years old, Hugo Chavez closed his rally
of the close of the campaign for referendum reform. And if some of his
supporters were having doubts about Chavez’ intentions, just daring to
say that revealed to a great extent he autocrat’s frame of mind.

And it was no longer
a matter of mine is bigger than yours. While I watched yesterday’s No
rally from the ground, I only saw this one from TV cameras, which
showed comparable rallies, which to me is quite a victory for an
opposition, which a month ago seemed destined to a huge defeat. Add to
this Chavez’ hundreds of buses, lots of money to buy attendance,
coercion and memos telling Government workers that it was mandatory to
attend and it was in fact surprising hat the NO rally seemed denser,
larger and more enthusiastic than today’s Si rally. In one radio
station a caller detailed how he went to work on Thursday at the notary
office somewhere in the East of Venezuela and found the office closed
and the bus waiting to take everyone to Caracas for the rally. He had
to go, but as he said he does not have to vote Si on Sunday after
leaving his sick son alone for a day and a half without recourse.

And throughout his speech Chávez kept bringing back the subject
to the only terrain where he can hope to win: A vote for No is a vote
against him, a vote for No is treason, a vote for No is a vote for Bush
and a vote for NO and a vote for NO was a vote to turn Venezuela into a
colony of the United States.

And there were
also threats of grabbing his rifle again if the opposition refused to
recognize his victory quoting polls that nobody has seen in which he
supposedly has a commanding 10-15 point lead.

There
was absolutely no content about the reform other than the pitiful
claims that somehow concentrating power on him gives more power to the
people. Chavez made one last attempt to turn the vote into a plebiscite on his rule, but he may have promised too many more years for people’s comfort. There was also the threat to cut off the US form oil supplies
if the opposition did not recognize the Si victory on Monday and he
claimed he would recognize the victory of the No if it happened,
apparently in reference to his former wife’s accusations that he would
have a difficult time accepting it.

And his
claim that he could be in power until 2050 illustrated better than
anything the autocrat’s frame of mind, why he wants the power, he needs
the reform and he deserves to be trusted. Nothing about the goals of
the reform and all about Chavez. Trust him, after nine years maybe he
has found the way, even if all he has for it is a name: XXIst. Century
Socialism.

In the end, the autocrat seemed to
be unraveling as he told his public how they are trying to assassinate
him, get rid of him, eh is the only hope, all international leaders
hate him because he is…Hugo Chavez.

All in all,
the speech seemed aimed at those already committed towards voting for
the Si and it is hard to believe it would convince any of the former
Chavistas who are having doubts about voting for the reform. But what
do I know, I never understood why they voted for him before…

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A perverse, tragic and unending poker game in Latin America

November 30, 2007

I always found
the perverse ballet between Chavez and Uribe surrounding the hostage
negotiations to be fascinating. Here are two people who deal with each
other only because they have to but have very different goals,
accepting each other in order to achieve their own goals. The mystery
was why Uribe agreed to Chavez’ mediation. The third party, the FARC,
was tougher to figure out: What did the FARC want? It could be money;
it could be the ability to use Venezuelan territory at will, it could
be looking to even take advantge of the Bolivarian revolution to expand
its role in wealthier confines, the only question was why they did not
try  to help Chávez more along the way.
 
Chavez
was clearly looking for fame. What else is new? That is what he strives
for, the limelight, the spotlight, the center of attention. He was
either looking for some sort of big impact before the December
referendum or trying to get his name nominated for the Nobel Peace
Prize.
 
Uribe on the other hand was in my
opinion trying to see if the movements and logistics required by the
FARC to give Chávez evidence or more importantly, release the proof of
life, would force the FARC to commit an error and capture some of them.
Clearly, Uribe wished he would actually catch someone big in the
process.
 
The FARC on the other hand have proven
to have some sort of hidden agenda, proving what I always believed,
that while Chávez has few scruples or regards for human rights, he is
as we say in Spanish “a breast feeding baby” compared to the FARC
leaders. Simply look at the cruelty in the way they hold hostages, kill
people and make the lives of the hostages and their families miserable
for years. They are truly cruel and terrorists and would not hesitate
to overrun Chavez if they could.
 
But the
question remains: Why didn’t the FARC deliver the required poof of life
in time? If the videos and pictures date as far back as October 23d.
why wasn’t at least part of it delivered to Chavez’ hands in time for
his visit to France? Allow Chavez to have some success but keep him on
a leash. Was there something Chavez asked but did not deliver? Maybe
the FARC are simply too independent to be impressed by the leader of
the Bolivarian revolution, even if they like to live off his wealth.
 
In
the end we will never know. Chavez got desperate and tried to bypass
the rules. Uribe broke up with him and suddenly (or coincidentally, who
knows?) they capture some underlings of the FARC with the material
Chávez wanted. To Uribe and Sarcozy, Chavez mediation seems to be over,
he had his time, he had his opportunity, but did not deliver and it has
been proven the FARC was toying with him. Thus, now Uribe and Sarcozy
can move forward on their own and deal with each other directly.
 
While
it is clear to me Uribe was toying with Chavez and his naïve believe
that his own interests and those of the FARC were aligned, I am not yet
sure what hand the FARC was playing or even trying to play in all this.
 
In the end, it is the individuals and their
families that are hurt by all of this, from the politicking to the
games, a sad game of political poker in which human beings, from Ingrid
Betancourt on down, are simply incidental figures to the ideological
and geopolitical games that mean little to the average citizen of Latin
America and their daily lives. It is in some sense part of the tragic
magic realism that seems to dominate our lives in the region, in the
name of ideologies while our people go hungry and without rights.
 
It is a perverse, tragic and unending poker game.

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Video by the Human Rights Foundation

November 30, 2007

Excellent video on human rights in Venezuela by the Human Rights Foundation. I do hope that one of the Caracas Nine becomes the tens of thousands of victims of homicide due to the negligence and indifference to the right to life of the Chavez Government.

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More pictures from the NO closing rally

November 29, 2007

People filled all spaces on the side too, as shown on the left.(Impossible to translate the poster). On the right people dancing and singing in the middle of the crowd.

Pictures taken from the middle of Avenida Bolivar showing how crowded it was back (left) and front (right)

Lot’s of creativity on the posters side as usual. On the left a very good one: “Let’s vote, it’s the only way to shut Chavez up”

On the left “Bolivar already said NO and you?. On the right, just about any space was good enough to advertise the NO vote

Left: Two girls got up on the stone in a park to take a break. On the right, as I was leaving after two hours at the rally, crowds were still moving in.

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Massive rally to close the NO campaign on the referendum for constitutional reform

November 29, 2007

It was a long and very tiring day, as I joined the march in favor of voting NO on Sunday’s Constitutional Reform referendum, which took place in Avenida Bolivar, Chavez’ favorite place to hold rallies, but which has been curiously banned for the opposition for exactly five years. This time around, the pressure from the student movement was too much for the Government, and as the students began calling to go to the Presidential Palace, the authorities yielded Avenida Bolivar to today’s rally.

There were five separate marches from various places in Caracas and attendance was simply massive. Above left you can see one of the five marches and the people were simply overflowing roads, parks and pathways in a massive rally which Chavez will have to try to match tomorrow, when he will hold his own rally at exactly the same place. As I went along I sent pictures via my cell phone to Daniel, allowing real time blogging of the day’s events, as Daniel accompanied my pictures with those taken from a webcam from which one could see Avenida Bolivar filling up. Above right, one of the many pictures that I have received showing an overview from a special vantage point from the front, showing how packed the place was. I will post more pictures here, comments will appear in a little while.

The students have made a clear difference in these rallies, they attended massively and easily made up over half of those in attendance, maintaining a level of cheerfulness and energy that made a huge difference in the atmosphere of the rally. For once, people stayed to listened to the speakers, mostly students who were cheered, but including some politicians which were booed. The students spoke well and more importantly sent a message of conciliation to the pro-Chavez forces. As expected, the Government’s TV station did not cover the rally, except for showing some images which were clearly taped when the rally was not in full force showing scant attendance at the NO rally. Somewhat comically, the Government’s main TV station showed four of five buses reportedly used by the students to bus people in, which turned out to be buses provided by the organizers of tonights’ rock concert by Venezuelan group Soda Stereo, since the place where it is being held has limited parking.

It was a strong close to a campaign that seems to have taken a turn that has surprised many, including me as the vote looks close and the outcome is now totally dependent on the level of abstention. But there is quite a bit of enthusiasm at this time to go and vote and today’s turn out proves it. Tomorrow we shall be able to compare the level of enthusiasm as Chavismo uses all of the Government’s resources, including buses to try to upstage the NO rally. Images will tell us if they succeeded.

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