A normal day for the revolution: Lies, abuse of power and BS

May 17, 2006


Yesterday,
Chavez’ MVR party and all of the parties that still support the Government got
together to defend the current electoral system and ask the Electoral Board to maintain
the conditions imposed by the previous.

The
spokesman at the meeting was the official spokesman for the “National Tactical
Command” of Chavez’ MVR, William Lara, who also happens to be the Minister of
Information and Communication in this autocracy run by the unity of Government
and party in the best Stalinist tradition. Except that here there is not even
the pretense of there being a differentiation.


In any
case, William Lara, this mediocre former high school physics teacher turned modern-day-Goebbels yesterday in
his press conference
, conveniently transmitted by the Government TV
channel, unlike opposition press conferences, came out and said two things that demonstrate
how this Government has no morals or criteria when it comes to speaking in public.

The first
statement he made for which I take offense was his passionate defense of the fingerprint
capturing system used in the last three elections. According to this modern day
Orwellian Minister of Information, the presence of these machines prevents
people form voting more than once and makes voting faster.


Well, I
hope I am not prosecuted for calling the Minister unethical and a liar, but so
far, there is no evidence that the system prevents people from voting more than
twice or helping people vole faster. In fact, the opposite appears to be the
case in the case of the speed of the process. In the recall referendum, it was
the fingerprint machines that slowed down the process due to the massive turn
out, forcing polls to stay open until almost midnight.


Moreover,
there is not a single study made in Venezuela that shows that multiple voting
by a single person has ever been a statistically significant problem, In fact,
what has been shown is that those that control the voting are the only ones
that may allow this to happen as the use of indelible ink in all Venezuelan voting
processes guarantees that unless it is allowed by those supervising the
process, multiple voting can be stopped.

Additionally,
the CNE has never revealed or shown how the fingerprint system performed in the
two elections in which it was used, the recall referendum or the October 2004
regional elections. The CNE has always refused to give out technical data as to
the speed of the system, its performance and whether it was even capable of
stopping people form voting twice.

In
contrast, the problems with the fingerprint machines are well known, but were
not mentioned by William “Goebbels” Lara: The ability of the Government to intimidate
voters into believing that their vote can be identified and the ability of
those in control of the voting process to know how many people voted and where,
allowing them to keep polls open later than the law establishes, as was done in
the same two elections. Venezuelan Electoral Law is very clear on the matter: Polls
are only to remain open until 4PM is there is nobody in line or until the lines
are exhausted. None of this was done in these two electoral processes and the
suspicion has always been that the fingerprint machines were telling the
Government, the only one that had access to the real time data that it would be
to their benefit to keep them open. But Lara and his cohorts could care less about teh rights of the people they claim to cherish and love.

But if I
found the defense of the fingerprint capturing machines insulting and
amateurish, his denial of the existence of the Maisanta
database
, which I now call the Chascon database, was truly offensive. There
are scenes of Hugo Chavez on TV asking Tascon how the process is going. There
are scenes of Hugo Chavez on Alo Presidente telling people that they can check
everyone on Tascon’s webpage and there is a video of Chavez telling Tascon himself,
who was present, and his Cabinet not to use the Chascon database anymore.

Moreover, the
CDs were distributed to thousand of Chavista activists and members of the Comando
Maisanta itself proudly acknowledged its existence. Even more harebrained was
his explanation on how they compiled their list. He claimed they had the
registry without addresses which they cross-referenced with the beneficiaries
of the “Misiones” and those that signed with them and that is how they obtained
the addresses to get the data. Well Mr. William “Pinocchio” Lara, my childhood address,
the first one that I used to register to vote too many years ago, is in the
Chascon database and I can assure I do not participate in Misiones, have not
vote for Chavez, against opposition Deputies and the like, and even if I did, I
would use my current address and not that one which happens to appear only in
the Electoral registry.

Thus, another
day in the revolution: lying, abuse of power and unethical behavior. These guys
have certainly learned a lot from the chief autocrat. What a bunch of BS
artists!


Chav Politics:The Hugo Chavez show is bad burlesque in The Times of London

May 17, 2006


Via Pedro
Mario
I read The Times
Editorial on Hugo Chavez, which shows that British papers can not be fooled as
easily as others:


Chav Politics (Chav means trashy
people
in Britain)

The Hugo Chavez show is
bad burlesque.
The
“private” visit of Hugo Chavez to London has proved enjoyable for those who
feared that 1980s nostalgia was not what it used to be. There may be
well-meaning souls prepared to view President Chavez with an open mind.
According to his promotional material, the Venezuelan leader is all that stands
between enlightenment and President Bush inflicting his twisted values (such as
democracy, the rule of law and market economics) on the entire world. Señor
Chavez, in his spare time, rescues his country’s grateful poor while rekindling
a Latin American sense of purpose and identity.

But if it is wise to judge
a man by his friends, those inclined to give the visitor the benefit of the
doubt might want to reconsider. It was not just the Central Casting collection
of faded radicals in his thrall. Having waited since the failure of the
Sandinistas to spark the (inevitable) anti-Yanqui revolution two decades ago,
their excitement was understandable. Ken Livingstone’s presence added
authenticity. It was good to see Harold Pinter there, a man who once had
something relevant to say (about Eccles cakes), but a long, long time ago. More
significant than those present were the absentees who would surely have wished
to be present at the lion-ising of the self-proclaimed Anti-Bush. Robert
(Mugabe), Kim Jong Il (The Dear Leader) and Muhammad (Ahmadinejad) are comrades
who were otherwise engaged. Señor Chavez’ eclectic choice of friends suggests a
man so deeply affronted not to have merited inclusion in Mr. Bush’s original
axis of evil (he is also an enthusiastic defender of Saddam Hussein) that he is
keen to create a new club of the touched.

President Chavez demands
attention, not just because he can wear a natty suit and, on occasion, employ
moderate tones. Because of rocketing prices, Venezuela’s oil revenues have
quadrupled since 1998, giving him economic and political clout that he is
exploiting with relish. His credentials as a leader of heroic stature would be
laughable if not so grave. On his watch, poverty rose as oil prices climbed for
the first time since records began. Murder has tripled, making Caracas the continent’s killing capital. His
disrespect for property, the rule of law and press freedom is now threatening
to infect Bolivia.
Corruption is endemic. He may be elected, but he talks of remaining in power
until 2031, and is no democrat.

Fortunately, many see
through him. Candidates in Peru
and Mexico
embraced by him have seen their support fall. The President’s next stop is Libya and a
meeting with Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, a man who abandoned pariah status for
something approaching acceptability. Señor Chávez would do everyone a favour if
he embarked on a similar personal journey.


Would you buy used F-16’s from these men?

May 16, 2006

So, the former and now reactivated General Muller says that Venezuela will sell the F-16’s to the Iranians, which prompts a US spokesman to say that Venezuela can not sell them without authorization from the US and Venezuela should stop the vomiting of rhetoric, which prompts Minister of Defense Maniglia to say that since the US has breached the contract, they could sell them if they wanted.

But really, would you buy twenty year old used F-16’s from Maniglia, Chavez or Baduel?

(Note: The parrot is there for color, I don’t know if I would buy an F-16 or not from him)


The autocratic wisdom of Hugo Chavez: It takes one to know one

May 16, 2006


From a Chavez
interview
during his visit to London:

“I
don’t think in Cuba
there is a lack of freedom of speech,” he says with worrying speed. ”
If you approach Cuba
from the perspective of the Western world, you might think so. But there, you
have the people who express themselves on many matters. There is no repression in Cuba.”

“What
you have in Cuba
is a very specific model of revolution. We are very respectful of the
revolutionary people of Cuba
and its institutions. In the grassroots in Cuba, there are constant elections
that take place. Is it true that by electing a President or Prime Minister
every five years you have democracy? Is it because you have press and TV
channels that you have freedom of speech? There’s a lot of cynicism behind
that. So many lies behind that. Every country has its own model.”

What about
Robert Mugabe? Does he regret calling him a ” freedom fighter”?
He is my friend. I think he has been demonised too much. Have
you met him?” No, I say – but I have met many of his victims. “We all
make mistakes. I think you should interview Mugabe yourself so you have a
better idea who he is and what he’s about. You have to understand history of
colonialism in Zimbabwe
against the black people, he wants a world where people are equals without
racism, that’s my opinion.”

“Freedom”
in Cuba
and genocide as a Mugabe “mistake”, The autocrat himself has clearly spoken to the
world!


Four from the news

May 15, 2006


–Since
Chavez won the 1998 Presidential election, the separation between Government
activities and those of Chavez’ MVR have slowly become blurred, becoming
essentially the same. At the beginning there was some pretence that there was a
difference, but these days, the Government funds that party’s activities but
nobody says anything about. The so called “moral” power is as partisan as the
guys in power, so they say nothing; they could be fired by the autocrat.

But the
differentiation has disappeared so much that that the Minister of Information
and Communication William Lara also hold the position as spokesman for Chavez’ Stalinist
party Movimiento V Republica MVR. So yesterday, he showed up at that party’s
headquarters to tell the country that MVR was unhappy with the pace of new registrations
for national ID cards and the electoral registry.


And he
kept a straight face as he spoke. But did not blame the opposition.

–If you
are a member of the opposition and were involved with April 11th. you
are disqualified, indicted and persecuted. But if you are Lucas Rincon, the man
that started it all by telling the country and the world that Chavez had
resigned that fateful day, you are named, Minister of Defense, and then Minister
of the Interior an d as of today Venezuelan Ambassador to Portugal. What a
rough life!

Why was Rincon never investigated? Or was he? Did Rincon have Chavez letter of resignation? Fishy Fishy!I don’t know, but why
is it that he has never been investigated on the matter?

–It used
to be in the pre-Chavez era, that university professors had salaries similar to
Government officials. Today, a Full
Professor makes some Bs. 3 to 4 million a month. (US$ 1,350-1,860 a month), but
after CNE Board member Sobella Mejias was pensioned off with a Bs. 22 million a
month (US$ 10,000), today we hear that the new CNE approved unanimously that
Oscar Battaglini should be pensioned off with a Bs. 20.8 million a month
package (US$ 9800 a month). Of course, he only worked at the CNE for three
years, but you see a month ago the University where he worked for 25 years
(including the three at the CNE) pensioned him off with Bs. 2 million a month
(He never made it to Full Professor), which immediately qualified him for the
new higher pension. You have to love the purity of the revolution!

By the
way, the alternate rector of the CNE, Esther Gauthier, got a Bs. 16 million
pension a month. (US$ 7441 a month)

The nice
thing is that they don’t have to worry about inflation; their pensions are
adjusted automatically to the salary at the position.

No wonder
these guys fight for these jobs!

As Chávez says: A paso de vencedores! (At the pace of winners) while the country
simple gets screwed.


–You have
seen it elsewhere either here
or here,
but I can’t help but quoting the
excellent article
by Ian Buruma:

“One of
the most vexing things for artists and intellectuals who live under the
compulsion to applaud dictators is the spectacle of colleagues from more open
societies applauding of their own free will. It adds a peculiarly nasty insult
to injury.”

All I can
say is Mr. Buruma, if you are ever in Venezuela let me know, I owe you a
bottle of wine and you can come by and it would be an honor to talk with you!

— And borrowing
freely from Francisco’s
blog
, como debe ser, as influenced by Harry
Hutton
, I am honored that the word excrement shows in google trends that Caracas
is the city where it is searched the most for, and Venezuela is the country
where it is a favorite.


One million real page reads for the Devil, how many fake pro-Chavez votes in the recall referendum?

May 14, 2006

Sometimes in the next few hours, I will get the one millionth “page read
according to the salon.com ranking system. Remarkable that what started
as a curiosity on my part in August 2002 has had so many visitors and
despite its somewhat restricted topic has managed to stay up there in
the salon.com rankings. To tell you the truth, its not only had many
more visitors than I expected, but I have made more posts than I ever
imagined. It certainly beats the school newspaper I started in high
school called “Se dice…” (People say…), a weekly rag which was
banned by the school authorities after only three weeks of very
succesful printing.

Obviously I thank you all for your attention and participation.

While it is not easy writing this regularly, I have to say that the satisfaction of having posted on topics like the Chascon (Chavez/Tascon) list/database and the referendum studies on a timely manner, has been sufficient compensation for my effort.

Perhaps the thrill of writing a blog like this can be best summarized by something that happened last night.Two nights ago I posted
part II of the recall studies by Delfino, Salas and Medina and was particularly
taken by the results of the regional election in October 2004. To me,
seeing that data was the strongest and most compelling proof that may be understood by
anyone that the results of the 2004 recall referendum were fabricated
by the CNE. Then, I began exchanging emails with a good friend on how
strange those results were and amieres in the comments pointed out a single case that was truly amazing. In his own words:

“How about this one example: Escuela Raul Leoni, Parroquia Santa
Apolonia, Municipio La Ceiba, Estado Trujillo. Signatures=762,
Referendum 2004=616/938 (40%/60%); Regionals 2004=1247/530 (70%/30%);
Presidentials 1998=689/318 (68%/32%); Presidentials 2000=597/466
(56%/44%) In this center they have been pro opposition in 1998(68%),
2000(56%) but amazingly in August 2004(40%) the completely flipped and
in Octber 2004(70%) they flipped again and became the most pro
opposition they have ever been!!!

Think
about it. At this voting machine the opposition has always had more
than 56% of the vote, but miracolously, in the recall vote, the
opposition only got 40% of the vote in the form of 616 Si (Yes) votes
and then, as abstentrion went up and the opposition was demolarized, twice as many people came out in the October 2004 regional elections to vote, given the opposition 70% of the vote in the form of 1247 votes for it!

I
asked the same reader if he could check in how many voting machines the
number of pro-opposition votes was larger than the Si (Yes) votes in
the referendum and he quickly answered:

There are 2181 cases (out 8228 centers, a full 27%) where there were
more votes in the regionals for the opposition than SIs in the
referendum
!!! And that considering that many people didn’t vote in the
regionals because of the disapointment because of the Referendum result.”

This
is by far the clearest and most convincing proof of the fraud that took
place at the recall referendum. It does not require mathematical
knowledge to understand how implausible it would be that a demoralized
opposition, with abstention increasing from 30% to 60%, would increase
the absolute number of votes in 27% of the voting machines. Take that
Carter Center and Jorge Rodriguez! Dare to explain it!Or even try!

I
did not require this to believe that there was fraud, the matehmatical
studies for me were convicing enough. But this information should be
useful in convincing many that still think there was no fraud on that
fateful August day.

In contrast to these fake numbers, and we don’t even know how many of those there were in the recall referendum, my visitors are all real and they seem to like coming here
searching for the truth and helping in finding the truth. That in
itslef is satisfaction enough for all of the work that goes into writing this.


Purpurata’s begin to flower

May 14, 2006

Well, the Purpurata’s have begun to flower. The National flower of Brazil was called Laelia Purpurata for the last couple of hundred years and obviously, ever since I began collectng orchids. But guess what? Last year scientists decided that it is very close to the Sophronitis family and now it is known as Sophronitis instead of Laelia. How did they determine this? Using DNA analysis two scientists Berg and Chase determined that they were essentially from the same family. I am sure as scientists they were thrilled, but as a collector I find all of these continuos reclassifications a pain, I just can’t keep track of them!

Sophronitis (Laelia) Purpurata Werkahuseri. The color is a mixture of purple and gray that I think is absolutely spectacular.

This is the more subtle Sophronitis Purpurata Suavisima or Delicata, I ahd trouble taking the picture on the left as there are two bunches of flowers on the plant and they were in such different planes that they would not come out focused until I chanegd the angle.

I have lots of plants of this Equitant Oncidium whose name has the word clown in it, but I can’t remember it. I splt a large plant into smaller pieces two years ago because it was growing over itself, but not doing well. This is the first “spin-off” to flower since two years ago, hopefully it will now start flowering regularly. It is a very nice and strong plant that every spring flowers in man shoots that last for months.


On Mathematical Models of the recall vote and fraud: Delfino, Salas and Medina part II: Making the inconsistencies in the results quite evident

May 12, 2006


While in part I of my presentation of the Delfino, Salas and Medina results, I emphasized the correlation between the signatures collected to call for the referendum to recall Hugo Chavez and the number of actual Si (Yes) votes to recall at the recall referendum, I only did that in order to use as simple a language as possible as an introduction to the topic.

What Delfino and Salas did was to plot the data in a different manner in order to bring the anomalies out better in the data.

What they actually plotted was a “normalized” parameter k equals to

      Yes(Si) Votes
k= ——————

       Signatures


As a function of another “normalized” parameter f

      Signatures
f= ——————
      Total Votes

The reason for plotting the data this way, is that it magnifies those voting centers in which the number of Yes (Si) votes is much larger than the number of signatures at that center. Think about it. First of all f is limited to be between zero and one, the maximum number of signatures at one center can only be at most the number of voters at the same center. On the other hand, given the difficulties, limitations and methods for obtaining the signatures as discussed in part I of these articles on Delfino, Salas and Medina, there should be a number of centers where with a low number of signatures, but a high number of Yes (Si) votes, where people did go out and vote but could not sign the petition. Additionally, this would be emphasized in those centers with low f, since f measures the number of signatures. In those centers with difficulties to gather the signatures, the number of people signing should be small, but you would expect the number of people voting Yes (Si) to vary significantly, to fluctuate!

Well, remarkably this does not happen in the automated centers as shown in Fig. 1 (left) but does in the manual centers shown in Fig. 1 (right):

                                   f                                                                                                     f

Fig. 1 (Left) k versus f for automated centers (Right) The same k versus f but for the manual centers separating the centers abroad from the data set, because there were special difficulties for gathering signatures for those living abroad.

What is most remarkable about Fig. 1 (Left) is that despite the difficulties in obtaining the signatures, the data for the automated centers is quite uniform and there are very few centers where the number of actual SI (Yes) votes exceeds significantly the number of signatures. Only in seven automated centers is k >2 which is remarkable given that there were forms for only 30% of the people to sign, while everyone could go and vote. In fact, only seven of the automated centers exceeds k=2 but none of them do it by much.

In contrast with the result for the automated centers, in the manual centers the number of pints falling above k> 2 is large and you can see points as high as k close to 10, as would be expected from a process that was so difficult as that of the signatures. This is what you would expect, as only 30% of the people could sign, while close to 70% of them actually voted in the recall referendum. This should generate the type of fluctuations you see in the manual centers but is absent in the automated centers. This is very strange and makes no sense!

If the result above is strange, in my own mind, it is its inconsistency with the next graph that proves the the fraud. The opposition came out of the recall vote absolutely demoralized, three months later in October tehre were regional elections. There was not only a campaign to promote abstention, but abstention more than doubled, going from 30% in the recall referendum to over 70% in the regional elections in October 2004. Despite this, take a look at what happened if we plot the pro-opposition votes as a function of the recall signatures below on the left, in the same centers that were automated for the recall vote:

                                           f                                                                                        f

Figure 2. Left: Opposition votes normalized to the number of signatures k, at each center as a function of f the fraction of signatures to voters at each center for the regional election in October 2004. Right: The automated centers once again just for direct one to one comparison.

To me this graph is absolutely compelling: There are more than three dozen points above k=2 in contrast to the seven at the recall vote. There are points as high as k=6, this despite the fact that abstention was double in the regional election what it was in the recall, that it was the opposition that mostly abstained in it and nevertheless the opposition actually increased the number of votes with respect to the signatures in dozens of voting centers, all at once! In fact, I repeat the same plot for the automated centers in the recall next to that regional election just so that you can see how different the two results are.

Personally, I would like to challenge the Carter Center or whomever they designate to even attempt to explain how the results of the regional elections could be what they were compared to the recall vote in Figure. 2 and what was the mysterious mechanism by which opposition voters in so many centers came out in larger number that October to give those results, despite the higher abstention and the demoralized opposition. Where were this people the day of the recall? Why didn’t they go vote and then all of them in synch showed up in October 2004? This simply has no other explanation that the Delfino Salas hypothesis, which I advanced in my conclusions of Part I on the correlations. :

The official results of the recall vote in the automated centers were forced to follow a linear relation with respect to the number of signatures obtained at each of those centers in the recall petition.


For the sake of completeness, I also include below the graphs of the votes against Chavze in the 1998 and 2000 elections, both at the peak of Chavez’ popularity. Despite this, values as high as k=4 or even above can be seen in both cases. These are magically and mysteriously missing from the automated centers in the recall vote:

                                       f                                                                                                f

Fig. 3 Results for the 1998 and 2000 opposition votes as a function of the signatures in the recall petition k, as a function of the number of signatures collected in each center normalized to the total number of voters at each center.

Next, part III: We get a little dense to show that the statistical characteristics of the result of the recall vote show mathematically that the data came from a single set of numbers and not two as expected, indicating the results were obtained from the signatures used to petition the recall.


Tough times for Latin America as integration efforts falter due to ideology

May 10, 2006


When the Summit at Iguaçu last week was over, a talkative Hugo
Chavez, (what else is new?) hailed the meeting, said it was wonderful and that
the pharanoic mega pipeline would now include Bolivia.

But
somehow that is not what apparently happened, as press reports tell us that Lula
told Chavez
not to meddle so much in South American affairs and that he was
endangering the gas pipeline project with his intromissions.  The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry claims
to be surprised
by this reaction, while none other than Evo Morales says
that he will try to save the Andean trade pact while in Europe.
Morales meanwhile is now being accused of being himself a puppet of Chavez, as he
is criticized
for flying in a Venezuelan plane to Europe and Morales tries
to distance himself from the Venezuelan President. But it is hard to do as his
Minister of Energy confirms that PDVSA employees helped with the
nationalization decree, Morales says expropriation of large states is next,
then a Constituent Assembly and you bring Chavez to a Summit where he has
little role to play other than defend you from the ire of Lula and Kirchner.

Of course,
all of these problems are supposedly being caused by the “right wing” Brazilian oligarchs
like Celso Amorin and Marco Aurelio Garcia, Chavez’ allies two yaers ago, who are now at the center stage of criticism
in their own countries because essentially Lula had his thunder and leadership stolen
by Chavez.

The result
of all this is that Lula is looking North more than ever, as he realizes he can
not count on his supposedly ideological partners to go along with him, Uruguay is mad at Argentina, Peruvian candidates
now all attack Chavez, Lopez Obrador seems to be losing not first place but
now even second place in the Mexican Presidential race tahnks to Chavez and the President of Guatemala tells
Chavez
not to meddle, even before he has.

All in all
not a very good week for someone that wants to be the leader of this southern
hemisphere. A lot of the work Chavez had done regionally to integrate was lost
this week because of the style Venezuelans have seen in the last seven years: confrontation,
intolerance and ignoring others opinions.

This is in
the end bad for the whole region. The world is becoming highly connected and if
we can not connect with our most natural trading partners, we all lose in the
end. Chavez’ difficulty is that he truly believes that free trade is bad, while
the rest of the region has come to recognize that free trade is the way out of
poverty for many of these countries. Moreover, he wants to impose his point of
view, the way he did on the CAN, later on Mercosur, then with the G-3 and
helping Morales make decisions that have created a rift between his country and
his natural (and only!) clients.

So far
only Argentinean President Kirchner has yet to distance himself publicly from
Chavez. Maybe he can not yet afford to, given the largesse of the Chavez
Government in purchasing that country’s debt in the last year, no questions
asked.

The only
question is what will be the next step. Lula is facing an election, while his
own country is beginning to doubt his ability to lead the country
internationally. Mexican, Peruvian and Colombian politicians distance
themselves from the Venezuelan President, who has an election in eight months
that will likely push him into radical positions that many neighbors will not like. The
US
seems to have no clue as to how to play this game, other than do little or fumble even when they try to do something.  

Unfortunately,
all of these countries continue to benefit from the world commodities boom,
which hides many of their structural problems and lack of competitiveness. Decisions are delayed, conflicts are avoided and important opportunities
are being missed as the more radical left interferes with the traditional one
to slow down progress in trade within then region. Integration efforst falter simply because of ideology, the same ill that has affected the region for decades.  In the end, the people are hurt as the economies if their countries d not grow as fast as they need to, while other areas of the world, such as Asia and Eastern Europe continue to make strides in solving those same problems with pragmatism.


Washington Post on crime in Venezuela

May 10, 2006

And the Washinton post has somehow discovered that the revolution has flaws, such as the tripling of the crime rate in the last seven and a half years. It really does not make me feel very good to think that Caracas has the worst crime rate of the planet, but hey, that is what revolutions are all about, achieving new milestones, no?