Some thoughts on being a Presidential candidate for the December 2006 Presidential elections

January 11, 2006

I really do not believe that the opposition will have candidates in the December 2006 Presidential elections, unless the current CNE is removed and international observers are invited to follow the procedures. However, if you are a candidate, this is not the time to worry about that, the reality is that none of the candidates have any leverage today to pressure the Government into doing any of these two things.

However, if you are a candidate you may gain that leverage by announcing soon and gaining momentum. In my mind, those that have announced: Juilio Borges, William Ojeda and Roberto Smith have little chance. However, Teodoro Petkoff, who I understand will run and Manuel Rosales who according to Descifrado, has decided to run, may have a better chance. In my mind Petkoff is not very charismatic, but may be the candidate that makes Chavez the most uncomfortable.  I know Petkoff is a terrible candidate, but it may not take that much to win if things continue to deteriorate as fast as they are for the Government. Rosales may be a better candidate, but he is also more open to accusations and tricks, given that he is currently a Governor.

In both cases, they can not wait until the CNE is changed, they have to announce now and start campaigning. In Rosales’ case the price is high, he would have to resign as a Governor to run. Petkoff is freer, but he has no party structure and will have a lot of resentment thrown at him because of his extreme leftwing activities of the past.

And then there are the primaries. Yes, primaries are needed but they have to be part of a later negotiation. Not one of these candidates can accept to particiapte in a primary without knowing who the the other candidates will be. Can you honestly be part of a primary if you will not back the candidate who wins? Can you be part of a primary today, only to find out that there will be a rightwing candidate in it later? I just don’t think so.This is part of the problem with the opposition, it is too diverse to be able to agree to it. But imagine Rosales and Petkoff jump in and later see that together with Julio Borges they are the top three candiadtes. I am sure all three may agree to a primary. But also imagine Alvarez Paz or a retired military announcing, can they accept them in their primary? It does not seem reasonable in my opinion.

So, my point is that those that want to run should announce soon, start campaining and putting the pressure on the Government to change the CNE, invite international observers and  calling for a primary. That is what I would recommend a candidate to do, since I am not one. But neither am I advising anyone.


Rosines would be shocked

January 11, 2006

What would Rosines (Can I even use her name?) think of this?


Things heard this week with my comments

January 11, 2006

Caracas Mayor Juan Barreto: (Sunday):”There are no invasions in Caracas, there are urban occupations”
(Today):”I will apply all of the weight of the law (??) to the invaders”

That’s easy, no invasions, nobody to apply all of the weight of law…

The Minister of Infrastructure: “The viaduct displaces itself 4.7 centimeters per day”

In twenty nine years it will reach the other side and problem solved..

Peru’s President Toledo: “Chavez should respect Peru’s internal political problems…He is not the President of Latin America”

Vice-President Rangel: “Toledo’s opinions are biased by his Government’s failure”

I guess Latin America also has a Vice President

Finance Minister Merentes: “We will buy all of the bonds that Argentina wants to sell us”

That’s what Wall Street investors did in the 90’s until they realized Argentina could not pay the almost US$ 200 billion in debt and defaulted. Investors lost their shirt. Will the Government lose our shirt?

–Hugo Chavez (El Nacional A-2): “Oligarchies have always said soldiers are dumb, gorillas, burly sargents”

Not true, this has always been the opinion of almost all Venezuelans, where do you think the term gorilla comes from?


January 10, 2006


I guess I
was saved by very little. I regularly translate articles from Tal Cual and
like to do so with Petkoff’s Editorials and with the humorous writings of Laureano Marquez. Last November I
posted the Coat of Arms that Tal Cual
published along with an article by Marquez entitled
“Letter to Rosines”. You see, Chavez in his Sunday program said he
was going to change both the flag and the country’s Coat of Arms because of comments
and suggestions made by his eight year old daughter Rosines. Among them, his daughter had “noticed” that
the horse was looking dull and was turning to the right (get it?).

Well, The
National Institute for Minors initiated
this week a legal action against Tal Cual and Marquez for going against “the rights of a
minor”. Moreover they will extend the actions against any media that reproduces
the article. According to the institute, the article violates the “honor,
reputation and intimacy of the president’s daughter”.

This is
typical of this Government, going after people only indirectly. Tal Cual has been
served and the article had to be removed from the internet version of Tal Cual
by Court order. (It already has been done). This is the first time anything in this
country has been censored by a Court order in the Internet
. Curiously, Tal Cual
is partially owned and Edited by likely Presidential candidate Teodoro Petkoff and it affects the President’s daughter. To me, it seems like abuse of power and conflict of interest. But, hey! This is a revolution!


In Venezuela,
Presidential families have always been essentially invisible. Chavez changed that. It was Chavez
that brought his daughter up. It was him that wanted to show off his smart daughter by
saying that she is making policy in their Government He opened her up to the exposure and criticism.
If Chavez can say his daughter makes policy suggestions, he is opening her up
for criticism and why not humor? Or can he say she suggested something and it
can not be criticized because she is a minor?

This is
abuse of power. As simple as that. Chavez was probably irked by the letter, the
same way he was irked by the cartoon about the viaduct by Zapata on Sunday, that he criticized on his latest
Sunday program. His skin is smply getting very thin, he must read the same polls I do. It simply took so long to go after Tal Cual because of the
Christmas vacation.

Meanwhile thousands of minors are homeless or go hungry in the streets, but they are not kids of the new oligarchy, now known as the “boli-bourgeois”. Thus, they have no protection. Frrom anything.


The promises of Hugo Chavez

January 9, 2006

It is amazng the HQBS that can be delivered by the President, all in yesterday’s Alo Presidente:

The engineers that built the viaduct knew it was vulnerable

Sure, they just did not do anything just to embarrass Hugo Chavez 53 years later.

If the Vargas tragedy did not defeat us in 1999, and
that was a true tragedy, we will manage this problem and you will see we will
come out of it strengthened and we will benefit from it

I hope you don’t manage it like that one and that you don’t come out as
weakened as the poor people of Vargas.

At the end of February the contingency route will be finished


Yeah, sure, and forty days after Nov. 14th. 2004 you will
announce the plan to end poverty in Venezuela

I guarantee that in the first quarter of 2007, we will finish the new
viaduct

(Please readers, be respectful and don’t laugh at this one). Yes Hugo, you
don’t even have a soil study or a project and you will have your wonderful managers and
engineers do it in less than 15 months. (Sorry, I had to laugh at the end)

We will build a tunnel through the Avila Mountain that would exit from
Cota Mil near La Pastora…this will all be finished in less than four
years

Yes Hugo, we understand and there will be no homeless kids in Venezuela by
2002.

they are desperate because of the ten million votes

No, Hugo you are desperate because of the promised ten million votes…


Five nice species.

January 8, 2006

This is the same Oncidium Splendidum of last week, I noticed great contrasts when the light hits it in different ways so I played with it now that all flowers are open. Hope you like it (This is sunlight, not artifical light)

Two nice Venezuelan Cattleyas, On the left Cattleya Gaskelliana, on the right one of my favorites, Cattleya Jenmanii. This particular has very nice flaring.on the petals

This is a Laelia from Mexico, Laelia Anceps “Oaxaquena”. My first orchid ever was a white Anceps with a blue lip.


Revisiting the Viaduct: The revolution always begins tomorrow

January 8, 2006

Lots of articles about the Viaduct #1 in today’s papers both
El Nacional and El Universal give brief histories of the problem as well as the
search for an alternate route. El Universal probably devotes the most space to
it (which is good since it is free) with articles about the history
of the road and the viaduct
, with some really neat pictures of the viaduct
being built, unfortunately only one appears in the online version.

I did learn a few things which in the end show how
inefficient the previous Governments were, which is not new, but the whole
story certainly puts most of the weight on the responsibility of the Chavez administration, even if they want to deflect the blame.

In 1988 the then Ministry of Transport requested bids for
building a new viaduct. The results of that process were voided. In 1993
another process was opened, eight different consortia presented 12 different
proposals. The bidding process was never completed.

Finally, in 1995 there was a process to choose who to give
the concession for the upkeep of the highway. The winner would have to, among other responsibilities,
the task of building the new viaduct from the tolls collected. A study
determined then that the minimum toll that needed to be charged had to be US$
0.60 per car and higher for trucks and buses. The plan was to start low and increase it
to a higher level so that in time the average would reach the required amount. It never
happened. The toll never got above US$ 0.20 and when the Chavez administration
got to power the contract to the company running the highway was rescinded due
to the protests by those that drive the road (Who all happen to own cars or buses). Since then (2001) there has been no toll charged on the highway in typical populsit style. The
company that ahd the contract went to arbitration and won a verdict of US$ 13 million, which the
Venezuelan Government paid. Curiously, the toll of US$ 0.60 was below the toll charged to cars from
1953, which started at US$ 0.857 in 1953 and was still US$ 0.697 when the first
big devaluation took place in 1982, when another incompetent Luis Herrera Campins was President..

There is also an article in the print verison that I can’t find in the online version
of El Universal by a Professor of Topography of the Catholic
University. He relates
how he was hired in 1992 to make measurements on the viaduct and he detected the curvature
that eventually led to its demise. He noted in his report that some special
structures built into this viaduct, it was the only one of the three viaducts that had
them specifically because of the problem with the displacement of the mountain
on the south side, had all collapsed.

He tells how he was hired again in 1997 and how in 1999, his
contract, which he says was quite cheap, to make measurements was ended by this
Government. In its place, the Ministry decided to buy a system of GPS’s for
early warning. It was never installed. (Will someone investigate this?)

In 1999 he made a proposal to isolate different parts of the
viaduct (I did not quite understand his explanation). He says this was exactly the opposite
of what was done. The attempt to fix the viaduct added weight to its structure and affixed
it more to the side of the mountain under displacement. He claims the repairs
attacked the problem by fixing the viaduct, but the problem was the displacement
of the mountain which pushed the viaduct, they tried to fix the effect rather than the
cause.

I relate all of this, because I have heard some remarkable, irresponsible
and outrageous statements in the last few days, which is simply alarming. The first one is that the National
Assembly will not look into whose responsibility the closing of the viaduct
was, but iwill only look for solutions to the problem. This is absurd, that is not
exactly their job description, unless they pass a Bill to temporarily suspend the laws of
physics so that the mountain stops pressuring the viaduct.

Then, there is the mindless Chavista Deputy who said on
Friday that five years was not enough time to take care of this problem. Clearly
he does not even know how to count, Chavez has been in power seven years, but
he forgets the highway was built in only three years by a Government which was
as autocratic as the current one, but was efficient.

But the most bothersome statements I heard this week, is
that there is no project for an alternate viaduct. That’s right; according to the
President of the Colegio de Ingenieros in yesterday’s El Nacional, all that
exists is a preliminary project which lacks soil studies, feasibility studies
and environmental impact studies. Now, that is scary! All these guys trying to defend
the Government’s work and it turns out that the only plan is to pave a road in
the bottom of the ravine that the viaduct spans over, right on top of a river
of sewage that may be less stable than the viaduct itself. This is absolutely
irresponsible!

And think not only about the overall impact on the economy,
such as the slowness for freight to move from the La Guaira airport and port to
Caracas, or simply business people not being able to come easily or travel abroad
easily. No, think about the people in Vargas state, who suffered the mudslides in
1999, that half destroyed their state and are still waiting for the promised reconstruction.
They have now lost two of the most important sources for their income: They are
unable to come to Caracas where a large fraction of them work and people will
be unable to go to the beach to spend the day or to stay at the numerous clubs or
buildings there, the main livelihood of those that live in that state. The
third source of income in that state are the jobs at the port and the airport,
both of which will see reduced activity due to the closing of the road.

These are real people, mostly poor, whose lives have been
hit extremely hard twice in five years, once by nature in 1999 and now by the inefficiency and
incompetence of their Government. The same Government by the way, that they overwhelmingly voted
for in 1998, 2000 and 2004. Go figure! But perhaps, Alberto Barreda said more succintly (El Nacional (page C-3)), what we have known for all of these seven years, the revolution has no shame in blaming others because: The revolution always begins tomorrow!

(Personally, the viaduct was a source of anxiety for me most of today. My 80 year old mother arrived today and we had to figure out how to bring her up, keeping tabs on her progress after she landed. To top it all off, her luggage did not show up, so now an additional trip has to be scheduled, under these difficult circumstances to go u and down to the airport, in order to go and get it whenever it gets here. Additionally, my wife will arrive in two days, her plane lands after the old highway is closed to passenger traffic (10 PM), so I had to work out how to bring her into the city using a 4WD vehicle via the Avila National Park, which is also closed to non-residents at night. Fortunately, there are some very enterprising residents in that Park)


And when it falls…

January 7, 2006

I am dressing in black and trying it, just need to borrow a car…


A show of intolerance and bad manners by the Mayor of Caracas

January 7, 2006


In this video
from Noticiero Digital there is tape of the Mayor of the Metropolitan area of Caracas, Juan Barreto,
showing his intolerance, disrespect and poor manners by simply losing his
temper and insulting and reacting against a reporter that is trying to ask him
a question. The question is really never
answered.

Basically the
Mayor is announcing the expropriation of some 32 buildings in the Caracas area. The Mayor
begins saying that they will publish the pictures of the buildings so it is
clear which ones they are, because people are concerned and it is not true that
buildings are being taken over. The reporter points out that people have
started invading buildings since the expropriations began, she then asks what
will be done to the people that violate the law and he snaps back at her saying
you are cornering me and that is not how reporting is done and tells her she
should go back to the University, as his supporters join him, jeering at her. He
then makes some preposterous charges against Juan Fernandez giving oil away to foreign
countries and tries to draw a parallel to this situation. Fernandez, one of the
union leaders of the oil workers never had the level within PDVDA to even participate
in those decisions and it was not even his area of expertise.

The
reporter then repeats the question and he says he will apply the law. While he
is the one being aggressive, he tells her that she is being too aggressive. At
this point he leaves, loses his temper and a starts screaming at her telling
her she is no reporter that all she is an opposition leader, as his supporters
jeer and scream at her.

Another sad
show of the intolerance and aggressiveness by a leader of the pretty
revolution.

(Note Added: El Nacional today reports (page B-20, by subscription) that a total of 20 buildings have been invaded since Friday morning. This is what the reporter was asking the Mayor which he never answered, in fact he says in the video it is not happening)


Memo to Mrs. Maripli

January 7, 2006

MariPili Hernandez is a former TV announcer, Chavez supporter/adulator and was a Vice-Minister of Foreign Relations. She writes a weekly column in El Nacional where she sucks up to Chavez and treis to tell us how wonderful everything is under the revolution. Her latest was too much for Gustavo Coronel , who wrote this memo to her. It speaks for itself.

Memo
to Mrs. Maripili


Gustavo Coronel.


Mrs.
Maripili:


You just
wrote the following: “I certainly am one of those who think that there is no
Venezuelan with a clearer vision of what a strategic national plan should be
than our current president”. This statement provoked such indignation in me
that I have decided to send you this brief memo. What you wrote would have
merely been one more example of the abject adulation that you, the paid hands
of the regime, lavish on Chavez. But you said this at a very unfortunate time,
when the colorless Minister of Infrastructure is saying that the main bridge
that connects Caracas
with the world (Port and airport) is falling down and that the highway will
have to be closed indefinitely.


What this
means, in brutally simple terms, is that Venezuela
is abruptly being thrown back to the early XX century, when the only way to get
from Caracas to
the sea was a narrow and winding road built by Dictator Juan Vicente Gomez.
This trip was an adventure, taking long hours. Today, the adventure will be
magnified by the fact that the road is in poor conditions and is now part of a
huge marginal village, full of criminals who assault travelers who have the
misfortune of having a flat tire or falling behind a slow truck. The police as
defender of the people, as you well know, Mrs. Maripili, has ceased to exist in
Venezuela.

What a
poor timing you showed in writing your stupid statement. What f… vision can
Chavez have? Forgive me for the f.. Word, but I am sure that is often used
among your friends. What f… strategic vision can this man have? Tell me if a
person who does the following things can have “a national strategic vision”:
(1), gives away $1.2 billion per year of Venezuelan money to Fidel Castro; (2),
buys $1 billion in Argentinean bonds at a price above the market; (3), promises
a subsidy of $700 million per year to the Caribbean countries; (4), Promises
Paraguay to build them a $700 million refinery; (5), Donates $30 million to Evo
Morales on his recent visit to Venezuela, to be used at his discretion; (6),
gives $40 million in petroleum subsidies to the “poor” of New York City, Boston
and Chicago whose average income is ten times greater than our Venezuelan poor
who lack all essentials; (7), buys for his use a $70 million airbus without
proper budgetary appropriations, when Venezuelan roads are rotting away; (8),
acquires $6 billion in arms from Russia and Spain when the country is falling
to pieces; (9), promises Jamaica $300 million for a road when ours are a pile
of shit; (10), builds houses for Cubans when thousands of Venezuelan families
lack a roof over their heads; (11), tolerates the existence of 200,000
abandoned children in our cities and thousands of Indian mothers begging in the
streets; 12) finances those so-called Youth Festivals and Popular Congresses,
simple excuses for drug consumption and ideological incest, with money that
should be used to alleviate hunger and ignorance in our country.

What
vision of a national strategic plan can possess someone who surrounds himself
with such mediocre collaborators? How can a strategic national plan be
developed with people like Pedro Carreno, Lina Ron, Luis Acosta Carlez, Nicolas
Maduro, Isaías Rodríguez, Jorge Rodríguez, Jose Vicente Ramgel, Dario Vivas,
Cilia Flores, William Farinas, William Izarra, etc etc…? A national strategic
plan has to be put together as the result of an intense civic dialogue, has to
be made known by the citizens of the country, has to be executed by competent
and honest people, must be subject to accountability. Tell me, what are the
similarities between such a plan and the disaster you have installed in our
country?

I would
challenge any reasonably coherent member of the regime to a public debate on
Chavez’s “strategic national plan”, if such a coherent person could be found. I
discard challenging Chavez because he is incapable of civilized debate. He is
already an autocrat who will not dialog nor accept dissidence. His mind is full
of dreams of grandeur, of aspirations to become a new Tupac Àmaru, helped along
with our money, which is badly needed for tasks of real national development.
He does not have the time or the inclination to dialog on a democratic basis.

Your boss,
Mrs. Maripili, does not have the foggiest idea of what a national strategic
plan is or should be. When he is ousted, he should be condemned to work, with
pick and shovel, in the construction of the new highway from Caracas to the international airport and
port. Maybe he will be able to do that job although, every day that goes by, I
have more doubts.