The Devil's Excrement

To me, it is quite scary to hear what Gen. Baduell said yesterday in the Carabobo battlefield in the commemoration of the battle that gave Venezuela its independence. While I believe that the country should be concerned on how to insert itself in the global community, these guys are fighting imaginary and irrelevant battles, which really mean nothing to a prosperous future for Venezuela. While I would hate to compare it with what is going on in Iraq, in its essence it is not too different. Extremist in Iraq disliked Saddam Hussein as much as they dislike the US; the solution is to kill people at random as a way of making thier point.

While in Venezuela we have not reached that level of violence, I do not discard it in the future given the views and the ideological nature of what is today the ruling party in Venezuela. One has to wonder what will happen if they should lose control of power when and if Chavez loses the recall referendum. It may sound too pessimistic, but when a former Vice-President is the leading speaker for the radical Tupamaro group, Lina Ron is invoking violence if Chavez is revoked and Chavistas within the Government view Chavez as being too timid, one has to worry.

Baduell has certainly been a disappointment. He is reputed to be the man that brought Chavez to power in the name of institutionality in 2002. As such, he was expected to be an important force behind the scenes in maintaining Constitutional order. Apparently he has played that role to a certain extent, but at the same time he has also allowed for politics, nepotism and friendship to dominate decisions within the military, including the promotion of Gen. Garcia Carneiro to the highest rank ever given to a General in the country’s military history. Garcia Carneiro had a very poor career within the military, but his unconditional loyalty to Chavez helped him into the highest military post in the nation.

Meanwhile Raul Baduell has played a secondary role. Once in a while Baduell has given statements supporting institutionality. But on Thursday, he was given the spotlight as the leading speaker on the grounds of the Carabobo battlefield and rather than sending a message of institutionality, Baduell gave a militaristic speech aligned with the anti-US-globalization paranoia of his supreme boss Hugo Chavez.

As soldiers and armored cars marched to the sound of his speech, Baduell said that the Venezuelan armed forces were ready to confront four types of war, including any aggression coming from abroad, particularly by a multinational force. Coincidentally at that point in his speech a tank broke down right in front of the podium where Baduell was addressing the crowd.

Baduell gave a strong militaristic speech, sounding as if the country was ready to be invaded. He talked about fourth generation wars, in which countries are destabilized, he mentioned coups, subversion, as well as actions by separatists (??) groups promoted by transnational corporations and groups. He mentioned regional conflicts under the disguise of backing against violence. Finally, the General mentioned military interventions under the leadership of the OAS, the UN, or even worse, without the approval of any of these institutions.

Baduell charged the last scenario would be supported by “globalization” backers who consider Venezuela a threat to their interests. According to Baduell the Bolivarian state is against that globalization which promotes anarchy. He said there are groups in the country that are confused between foreign and Venezuelan flags and have turned into instruments of foreign interes.

Baduell’s speech seemed eerie in the context of a country whose economy has failed to move forward to provide the prosperity needed to the poorer classes, despite huge windfall profits from record high oil prices and revenues in the last few years. But it reflected the mindset of the Government. Chavez himself in the same event called the US the biggest enemy of the country, so that it was clear Baduell was simply following his boss’s speech.

The fact is that these men believe that any support for the recall or elections is a threat to their beloved and failed revolution. While Chavez rose to power on the coattails of a democratic revolution, that same revolution now threatens to kill his failed Bolivarian project. Baduell was simply trying to raise the consciousness of the disgruntled armed forces, but instead, stroke a cord that does not resonate with the Venezuelan population. For five years, Venezuelans have heard how the armed forces will help bring prosperity to the masses. In those same five years, the armed force have gone from being the most respected institution to the least respected one, as corruption and ineffectiveness have ruled their leadership.

Unfortunately, men like Baduell remain in important positions with strong personal ambition, under a very simple logic: If Chavez can do it, so can I. Unfortunately he is probably right and while we are worried about Chavez, Gen. Baduell may be planning his own agenda for the time when Chavez’ recall is approved by the Venezuelan people. It may be the only true hope for the survival for this empty and failed revolution.

This afternoon I actually sat down and read the headlines of the newspapers during the whole time I was away. This may sound like masochism to many of you, but I actually think it is the only way of understanding better what may happen in the near future. I don’t want to bore you with what happened since I left, but some things never cease to amaze me, such as the people caught forging the results of the signature ratification process inside the CNE or the fact that the two former Ministers of Finance accused of misuse of funds in the FIEM case are now in charge of the PDVSA fund or the handing over of funds from PDVSA to the Government directly in violation of the Central Bank law which states that PDVSA is obligated to sell all of its dollars directly to the Central Bank. But clearly, anything is possible in the Vth. Republic.

Meanwhile, evidence seems to be mounting that the members of the paramilitary force caught in the outskirts of Caracas a month and a half ago, were indeed part of a Government sponsored plan to create some sort of diversion and blame the opposition. What makes this case even more outrageous is that the Minister of the Interior publicly asks for proofs that the Government knew about it, on the same day that reporter Patricia Poleo publishes a copy of the official letter from the immigration department authorizing the members of the paramilitary force to enter the country. The Minister’s response? Easy, he wants the original letter to be handed over, not a copy, in order to accept that there is proof. Elementary Mr. Watson, or is it Mr. Rincon, if it is a copy it proves nothing, you now need the original so as to make the job of squealers even more difficult, why not a video then?

In more recent news, the National Assembly removes, illegally, a Supreme Court Justice for deciding against the Government, while the “immoral” council decides to investigate the Justices from the Electoral Hall for ruling against Chavismo. The more things change the more they stay the same in the Bolivarian Republic. This immoral decision was reached without hearing the accused, giving a new meaning to the interpretation of due process by these sad clowns of the Vth. Republic.

Meanwhile, the Head of the Exchange control Office announces that he will push the parallel market rate down below Bs. 2,500. Of course, this rate is illegal, this market does not exist and it is irrelevant for economic activity, according to other Government officials. What makes this interesting is that the Head of the Exchange control Office is all of a sudden in charge of monetary policy, while the Central Bank is ignored by the Government. The truth is that corruption appears to be the main reason why the parallel market rate is dropping, but that is another whole story.

Meanwhile former Ambassador Milos Alcalay, who worked in the Foreign Service for 35 years, is denied his pension just because…Such is the new justice of the Vth. Republic. In a similar case, the Venezuelan Supreme Court rules that oil workers enjoy tenure, but obviously a decision by the Supreme Court means nothing in this glorious Government and the 18,000 oil workers illegally fired two years ago will have to wait another day, or month or decade before their rights are recognized and restored.

Meanwhile, Chavistas accuse their own Minister of Energy of corruption and nepotism, something which has been known for over a year, after all, and what do you call it when half your family starts working for the oil industry after you are named Minister? Or when you personally decide contracts with foreign companies without following the procedures established by law? When Chavez was a candidate the few cases in which this happened became his whole campaign, these days this is a way of life in this parody of a Government. The solution to the accusations was simple: remove the Deputy making the accusations from his position as Chairman of the Oil and Energy committee of the National Assembly. This was called fascism in the old days, but now it is called patriotism.

But something is definitely up. Chavez meets with arch-enemy Cisneros in the presence of Jimmy Carter. Corruption charges that had been known for months become daily accusations. The Government is no longer offering a united front. Baduell says the military will respect the results of the referendum and expresses his disapproval of the way the new military promotions are being handled. The polls favor the opposition; the approval rating for the Democratic Coordinator is 50% with political parties a distant second with 13%. Oh yes, something is changing, something is up and the Chavistas don’t like it, but I do.

To those that may have missed it; I recommend you look at Alex Boyd’s work with the material he obtained from the Foreign Agent Registration Act documentation and the Venezuelan Information Office. He has now written five parts on the subject and has posted the original documents too. Very interesting!! As the other Alex, Alexandra Beech put it in her story on the VIO files: Imagine if Fidel Castro had an office in Washington called the Cuban Information Office. Or if Mugabe set up a Zimbabwe Information Office in the nation’s capital. How about an Iran Information Office, or a Lybia Information Office? Wouldn’t someone wonder why a foreign government had an “information” office in the US capital, while at the same time paying lobbyists to disburse “information” to the US Congress, White House, State Department, universities, investors, and so-called “think” tanks? Hard to imagine, no, but where is the traditional press when you need them?

Just returned from a wonderful vacation, thanks to my guest blogger for his aid, I know I dumped on him a responsibility when I asked him to fill in for me, it was indeed a critical time for Venezuela when I left. I must say, I had expected to be somewhat in touch, but wasn’t. All of the info I gathered in the last three weeks was obtained by phone, I did not access the Internet once. I thought I would as many places I visited advertised Wi-Fi access, but said little about pricing. I found most of them outrageous. (One place charged $1 per minute, their excuse being it was a satellite connection!).

Have read a little since I arrived this afternoon, but I am still digesting the news. As expected, the signatures were gathered with quite a sufficient margin. While not the standard point of view, the numbers worked out much like expected. Sumate’s prediction that no more than 100,000 people would withdraw their signatures was right on the money. Contrast that with the Chavista prediction that hey will have 300,000-400,000 people do so and you know who does the homework.

At this time I would like to make some simple observations, without delving too much on the details:

-I am puzzled by Chavez’ strategy. No matter what anyone says, the numbers don’t look good for him. You can argue all you want about abstention and such things, but the truth is that the opposition got 2.57 million valid signatures, there were 400,000 disqualified without appeal and another 400,000 that did not go to ratify or retracted its signature. This is awfully close to the magical number needed in a process that will be secret. Thus, I would have expected Chavez to play the abstention card. In this way, you could accuse anyone that shows up of being pro-opposition. He seems to be saying the opposition will not get the votes. Very risky strategy in my opinion.

-Chavistas appear to be divided. For once, there is dissidence and not a united front, where Chavez says the sky is green and everyone agrees with him. I have also noticed quite a number of corruption accusations against Government figures, some of them coming from Chavistas.

-There have been a number of Court decisions the have surprised me. First of all, Chavez can not run to replace himself if revoked, which surprised me. I believed all along that he would be allowed to run. The same decision says August 19^th. is the magic date, after which if Chavez is revoked, the Vice-President would replace him. This does not make sense to me since Chavez’ term ends on January 10^th. 2007. Thus, the only trick I can see in the future is that somehow the recall vote will be postponed beyond Aug. 19^th.

I had a wonderful time in my vacation. I like to take time off, I work very hard during the year and need to get away. I was amazed how I was able to disconnect, it is not easy. I took more than 600 pictures in my vacation, I leave you with three, all from nature. As soon as I catch up with the news I will be posting regularly. Probably sooner than I think.

Rumors published yesterday in some newspapers claim the government is thinking in reducing the amount of the Value Added Tax (IVA) and eliminating the criminal tax on bank transactions (IDB). These would turn out to be brilliant electoral strategies on the part of the government as would be eliminating the corrupt exchange control. I doubt the government has the conviction to carry them through or the ability to execute them on time.

The Political Police have initiated a procedure against Venevision one of the main private channels in Venezuela. I imagined that before the referendum a lot of the private media will be investigated on phony charges. I’ve never understood the stupidity of these measures taken by authoritarian governments, if what the media says are lies, you only have to tell the truth and wait. If they are saying the truth and it scares you, you have bigger problems than the media itself. This types of measures just proof how desperate and isolated the government is.

Faithful readers of this site know the imprecisions of The New York Times designated writer for Latin America Juan Forero. His latest piece about the voting machines that the CNE wants to impose in the election in order to facilitate cheating in the upcoming referendum, is a refreshing reminder that sometimes the truth comes out even through biases eyes. Perhaps is the influence of co-writer John Schwartz, but it is worth reading. A quote:

“But the electoral council has opposed an audit, saying that as an autonomous body it would tally the votes and ensure there is no fraud. Some pro-Chávez members of the council, in fact, have suggested that the O.A.S. does not need to monitor the election, or that its role should be restricted.”

another:

Glitches and tampering with voting machines has been seen before in Latin America, where there is a long history of stolen elections.

Mr. Rubin said it is crucial to ensure that the companies chosen to supply machines and software be experienced and have a proven track record, particularly in an election as important as Venezuela’s.

Will the chavistas suffer a similar fate? We shall see.

Don’t fully understand this, but this come from a report from a Venezuelan stockbrockerage firm: “The CANTV ADR implied FX rate fell sharply to Bs. 2.600 (see chart). The precipitous decline is attributed to various factors, including US bond sales to pay for Bolivar leverage, a more expeditious CADIVI and the decline in International Reserves. “

– YFGB

The recall vote will be on August 15. If it is realized on this day there should be elections before the end of the year. The constitution says one month but don’t hold your breath.

– YFGB