The Devil's Excrement

The opposition candidate to run Caracas’ Universidad Central de Venezuela, the largest in the country, won handily the first round of the vote getting 55% of the total. According to the rules, there will be a second round, since Paris did not receive the necessary 66.6% of the vote required to skip the next round. Pro-Chavez candidate Marcelo Alfonzo received 16% of the vote and will face Paris in the second round. The opposition had fielded four candidates which together received 83% of the votes. Both Professors and students vote on who the “Rector” of the university will be, but they have different weights in  the total.

When the final draft of the regulations for the process for ratifying the signatures came out, I was mystified by the sudden reduction of five days to three days for the process despite the fact that the regulations clearly said that it should take five days. Moreover, arguing that the first and last days were for setting up and dismantling the polling stations seemed to be so absurd as to be ridiculous.

The question was how was this going to be used to trick us, after all, if we manage to get 3.4 million signatures in five days, it should be a piece of cake to ratify 1.2 million in three. This is in fact what the CNE has been arguing all along, that three days with the proposed set up should be more than enough.

But an ad in today’s newspaper may be a hint of what the Chavistas are planning. The candidate for Mayor of Chacao for Chavez’ MVR published an ad in today’s El Nacional (page A-13) that says:

“Alert Alert Alert

I convoke all Venezuelans to massively go to the Centers for Ratification nearest to their home to verify THAT YOUR NAME NOT BE USED ILLEGALY

Careful not adding yourself to the Fraud

Let’s all go, with our ID card and let us not trust the lists which may be false”

Thus, the trick may simply be to have thousands of Chavistas going around the polling stations getting in line just to clog up the lines. They would line up simply to check what the status of their signature is. Once past the line, they would go back in line or to a different center and do it again and again.

If this is done, it would be impossible for the polling stations to handle the flow of the number of people that would show up. If the Chavistas paid 50,000 of their supporters to do this all three days, it would be the equivalent of 50,000 x 3 x 5 times a day=750,000 people going to ratify their signatures. Add to that 80,000 that go to withdraw theirs under pressure and 800,000 that go to ratify and you get 1.63 million people over the three days for a process designed to handle 1-1.1 million people with difficulty. Obviously, people would get frustrated, not everyone would be able to ratify their signature and the opposition would fail in its attempt to get the recall referendum. We will all be home watching this and saying once again: “This can’t be, this can’t be, this can’t be” but guess what? It will be…

I don’t know if this is what they have in mind, but it makes too much sense.

When the final draft of the regulations for the process for ratifying the signatures came out, I was mystified by the sudden reduction of five days to three days for the process despite the fact that the regulations clearly said that it should take five days. Moreover, arguing that the first and last days were for setting up and dismantling the polling stations seemed to be so absurd as to be ridiculous.

The question was how was this going to be used to trick us, after all, if we manage to get 3.4 million signatures in five days, it should be a piece of cake to ratify 1.2 million in three. This is in fact what the CNE has been arguing all along, that three days with the proposed set up should be more than enough.

But an ad in today’s newspaper may be a hint of what the Chavistas are planning. The candidate for Mayor of Chacao for Chavez’ MVR published an ad in today’s El Nacional (page A-13) that says:

“Alert Alert Alert

I convoke all Venezuelans to massively go to the Centers for Ratification nearest to their home to verify THAT YOUR NAME NOT BE USED ILLEGALY

Careful not adding yourself to the Fraud

Let’s all go, with our ID card and let us not trust the lists which may be false”

Thus, the trick may simply be to have thousands of Chavistas going around the polling stations getting in line just to clog up the lines. They would line up simply to check what the status of their signature is. Once past the line, they would go back in line or to a different center and do it again and again.

If this is done, it would be impossible for the polling stations to handle the flow of the number of people that would show up. If the Chavistas paid 50,000 of their supporters to do this all three days, it would be the equivalent of 50,000 x 3 x 5 times a day=750,000 people going to ratify their signatures. Add to that 80,000 that go to withdraw theirs under pressure and 800,000 that go to ratify and you get 1.63 million people over the three days for a process designed to handle 1-1.1 million people with difficulty. Obviously, people would get frustrated, not everyone would be able to ratify their signature and the opposition would fail in its attempt to get the recall referendum. We will all be home watching this and saying once again: “This can’t be, this can’t be, this can’t be” but guess what? It will be…

I don’t know if this is what they have in mind, but it makes too much sense.

A former reporter who is now an Accion Democratica Deputy in the National Assembly, charged today that the soldiers burnt in the Mara Fort in Zulia state were burnt with a flame thrower. Reportedly, frame thrower are used in border opertaions between Colombia and Venezuela which is what Fort Mara is mostly used for. Sounds too far fetched to me, but if true it will give a level of human rights abuse within the military that nobody in Venezuela ever dreamed of.

A former reporter who is now an Accion Democratica Deputy in the National Assembly, charged today that the soldiers burnt in the Mara Fort in Zulia state were burnt with a flame thrower. Reportedly, frame thrower are used in border opertaions between Colombia and Venezuela which is what Fort Mara is mostly used for. Sounds too far fetched to me, but if true it will give a level of human rights abuse within the military that nobody in Venezuela ever dreamed of.

The Coordinadora Democrática (CD) which in theory represents the opposition announced yesterday that it will participate in the process for the ratification of the signatures requesting a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez.

The decision was not an easy one. In fact, most of the major political parties actually disagreed with it, thinking that it was a matter of principle and there had been too may tricks on the part of the Government and the CNE to give any credibility to the process. In the end it appeared as if the opinion of Súmate and the fact that a large majority of those that participated in the process wanted to continue, helped the CD make its own decision. Súmate is NGO that has participated in the opposition signature gathering processes helping organize and evaluate them.

Most major political parties were absent from the press conference in which Miranda Governor Enrique Mendoza announced the decision to go forward. While some parties had expressed that they will cooperate if the decision was to participate, the absence of Proyecto Venezuela, COPEI, Primero Justicia and Causa R at the podium of the event could not be missed. Primero Justicia said that while it disagreed with the decision it will help the process.

Sumate said the goal of obtaining the required signatures was feasible as long as certain conditions were met.  Chief among them was the fact that the process had to be efficient in order to handle the lines of people that may show up. This appears to be the main concern at this time.

In the end, 1.91 million signatures were deemed valid by the CNE, 1.19 need to be ratified and 375 thousand were simply discarded. In the end 45% of the signatures were set aside and 11% were invalid.

Sumate was highly critical of the CNE. It said that when comparing databases 27% of the signatures changed status from the second to the third database, without any additional verification taking place during that time. Even more remarkable were the many anecdotes circulating, including the fact that the signature of one of the main negotiators for the opposition with the CNE simply disappeared as well as a number of major opposition leaders whose signatures were set aside and will have to be ratified. The CNE later said these charges were false.

The CD will now hold a number of activities from now until the day when the process will take place. There will be activities during the first week to help people identify the location of the 2700 centers where people will be able to go to ratify their signatures. On May 8^th. there will be a drive to have people go to each of the polling station and find out whether their signatures as valid, invalid or need to be ratified. The week before the process the CD will attempt to contact everyone that has expressed their desire to ratify their signature in order to guarantee the largest possible turnout.

Some people think it will be impossible to get the required number of people to go. While it is true that people are tired of the whole process, it should be pointed out that abstention should not be high for this part of the process; after all, those that signed in November will be motivated to have their signature validated.

The question at this time is whether there will be additional tricks on the way. One such stealth trick took place on Tuesday this week when the President of the Supreme Court named a pro-Chavez Justice of the Court to write opinions on the conflicts between the different Halls. This is just manipulation to gain time. If and when the majority of the full Court is against it, a new justice who is part of the majority will then need to be appointed to write the opinion. This essentially blocks the possibility of a full Court decision by at least one month.

The Coordinadora Democrática (CD) which in theory represents the opposition announced yesterday that it will participate in the process for the ratification of the signatures requesting a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez.

The decision was not an easy one. In fact, most of the major political parties actually disagreed with it, thinking that it was a matter of principle and there had been too may tricks on the part of the Government and the CNE to give any credibility to the process. In the end it appeared as if the opinion of Súmate and the fact that a large majority of those that participated in the process wanted to continue, helped the CD make its own decision. Súmate is NGO that has participated in the opposition signature gathering processes helping organize and evaluate them.

Most major political parties were absent from the press conference in which Miranda Governor Enrique Mendoza announced the decision to go forward. While some parties had expressed that they will cooperate if the decision was to participate, the absence of Proyecto Venezuela, COPEI, Primero Justicia and Causa R at the podium of the event could not be missed. Primero Justicia said that while it disagreed with the decision it will help the process.

Sumate said the goal of obtaining the required signatures was feasible as long as certain conditions were met.  Chief among them was the fact that the process had to be efficient in order to handle the lines of people that may show up. This appears to be the main concern at this time.

In the end, 1.91 million signatures were deemed valid by the CNE, 1.19 need to be ratified and 375 thousand were simply discarded. In the end 45% of the signatures were set aside and 11% were invalid.

Sumate was highly critical of the CNE. It said that when comparing databases 27% of the signatures changed status from the second to the third database, without any additional verification taking place during that time. Even more remarkable were the many anecdotes circulating, including the fact that the signature of one of the main negotiators for the opposition with the CNE simply disappeared as well as a number of major opposition leaders whose signatures were set aside and will have to be ratified. The CNE later said these charges were false.

The CD will now hold a number of activities from now until the day when the process will take place. There will be activities during the first week to help people identify the location of the 2700 centers where people will be able to go to ratify their signatures. On May 8^th. there will be a drive to have people go to each of the polling station and find out whether their signatures as valid, invalid or need to be ratified. The week before the process the CD will attempt to contact everyone that has expressed their desire to ratify their signature in order to guarantee the largest possible turnout.

Some people think it will be impossible to get the required number of people to go. While it is true that people are tired of the whole process, it should be pointed out that abstention should not be high for this part of the process; after all, those that signed in November will be motivated to have their signature validated.

The question at this time is whether there will be additional tricks on the way. One such stealth trick took place on Tuesday this week when the President of the Supreme Court named a pro-Chavez Justice of the Court to write opinions on the conflicts between the different Halls. This is just manipulation to gain time. If and when the majority of the full Court is against it, a new justice who is part of the majority will then need to be appointed to write the opinion. This essentially blocks the possibility of a full Court decision by at least one month.

Today the charges of corruption at CADIVI picked up. Tal Cual’ Editorial is on the subject, a lot like what I discussed a couple of days ago. Adina Bastidas was definitely on the offensive again yesterday (El Nacional by subscription only). She charged that fifty (50!) CADIVI workers were caught charging a commission for speeding up handing out foreign currency. Of course, she said little about what has been done about it. What use it to know about it and not charge them? I did find surprising that she says that private debt is not being approved yet, when it is the second largest item for which foreign currency ahs been given out.

Meanwhile the Head of the exchange office Mr. Hernandez Behrens has been extremely quiet on the issue, which we find disturbing. You have to give credit to former Vice-President Bastidas; at least she is going public with it!!

It’s not easy to find a blog that is so fascinating that you go back and read the whole thing from the beginning, but Saudi blogger The Religious Policeman certainly fits that category. Absolutely fascinating stuff, the culture, the Government, the religion, as well as the fact that the blogger is so far removed, but so much alike any of us at the same time. I loved the parts about how technology is being used to skirt the rules or how technology is changing the rules. Read it! You will enjoy it.

Via Lucienne.com, a news site, I learn about the article in Investors Business Daily (which I usually read, but had not looked at today) about  “blog tracking” by US intelligence agencies. Some highlights:

“Some analysts say U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials might be starting to track blogs for important bits of information. This interest is a sign of how far Web media such as blogs have come in reshaping the data-collection habits of intelligence professionals and others”

The CIA and FBI haven’t publicly commented about use of blogs in their work, but many D.C. observers believe both agencies monitor certain blogs.

At least one nation, China, is actively tracking blogs. It’s also reportedly trying to block blogs. Several press reports earlier this year said the government shut two blogging services and banned access to all Web logs by Chinese citizens.”

Even more interesting (and surprising!), the link to the article says:

“If anything, this is an understatement. Check out the blog situation on Venezuela – the information not covered by the media is just incredible. If spies are not tracking this, they are missing out big-time.

Long live blogs!”

Which is followed up by a comment with advertising for the usual suspects as well as yours truly:

“We can post links to our favorite blogs any time we like to add background. Here are my favorite Venezuelan blogs in English. Boy do they dish the dirt:

Caracas Chronicles
Daniel’s Venezuelan Blog
VCrisis
Devil’s Excrement
Gustavo Coronel’s Blog
Militares Democraticos “

From Caracas I say hi to all the spooks from both sides. I mean you guys from the .mil and the .cu’s of the world, we know you are watching…and we find it soooo cool!.