The Devil's Excrement

Via Lucienne.com, a news site, I learn about the article in Investors Business Daily (which I usually read, but had not looked at today) about  “blog tracking” by US intelligence agencies. Some highlights:

“Some analysts say U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials might be starting to track blogs for important bits of information. This interest is a sign of how far Web media such as blogs have come in reshaping the data-collection habits of intelligence professionals and others”

The CIA and FBI haven’t publicly commented about use of blogs in their work, but many D.C. observers believe both agencies monitor certain blogs.

At least one nation, China, is actively tracking blogs. It’s also reportedly trying to block blogs. Several press reports earlier this year said the government shut two blogging services and banned access to all Web logs by Chinese citizens.”

Even more interesting (and surprising!), the link to the article says:

“If anything, this is an understatement. Check out the blog situation on Venezuela – the information not covered by the media is just incredible. If spies are not tracking this, they are missing out big-time.

Long live blogs!”

Which is followed up by a comment with advertising for the usual suspects as well as yours truly:

“We can post links to our favorite blogs any time we like to add background. Here are my favorite Venezuelan blogs in English. Boy do they dish the dirt:

Caracas Chronicles
Daniel’s Venezuelan Blog
VCrisis
Devil’s Excrement
Gustavo Coronel’s Blog
Militares Democraticos “

From Caracas I say hi to all the spooks from both sides. I mean you guys from the .mil and the .cu’s of the world, we know you are watching…and we find it soooo cool!.

I have been meaning to write about the weird signals coming out of the Government on corruption and Descifrado beat me to parts of it. Interestingly enough, Tal Cual picked up the Descifrado story verbatim on Friday, which I do not recall ever seeing before

Basically, for the last month, there have been rumblings about corruption in CADIVI, the exchange control office, with most accusations directed straight at former Vice-President Adina Bastidas who is on the Board of CADIVI, with rumors saying that she introduces herself as the Vice-President of that office, a position that simply does not exist.

Everyone has stories about corruption in CADIVI, that you can speed up processes by paying a small amount and reportedly you can get foreign currency for almost any purpose, at a price. Earlier I wrote an article showing that the levels of private foreign debt approved to receive foreign currency at the official rate last year, appeared to be too large when compared to what was given to imports in 2003.

Well, to everyone’s surprise, Ms. Bastidas went on the offensive, saying there is indeed corruption in CADIVI. In a TV program on the official channel, she asked for an unbiased investigation of the charges. (sounds like the opposition, no?). She went even further, saying that the corrupt forces within CADIVI claim to be with her when they ask for commissions and use her name as a way of projecting confidence. Bastidas even said that she has been denouncing corruption in CADIVI in the committee that oversees policy, but is she has it has been very quiet as her TV appearance was the first time that anyone heard about it. That committee has very high Government officials in it, including the Minister of Finance.

But if that was surprising, imagine when none other than Hugo Chavez spoke against corruption in his Government for the first time in the last five years. While the President always mentions those that got rich during the first forty years of democracy, he had never refereed to the many corruption cases in his Government. As early as 2000, Chavez then Chief of the Intelligence Police Jesus Urdaneta denounced 43 corruption cases all of which have gone without investigation, which led to Urdaneta’s resignation.

Well, Chavez was very direct last week saying that some are trying to get rich off the revolution, something that he will not tolerate. Meanwhile, the Head of CADIVI, whose motto is “God is love and prosperity” (No exaggeration, check the web page: Dios es amor y prosperidad!) has yet to say anything about the charges in a clear sign, as Descifrado clearly points out, that there is a strong internal war within the exchange control office.

For once, I was actually eagerly waiting to see if Chavez mentioned corruption again in his Sunday nationwide address “Alo Presidente”, but he cancelled it for health reasons. Oh, shucks!

(By the way, for those that believe in the separation of church and state, this is a logo from CADIVI’s page:

Translation: let’s pray for a christian Venezuela……..)

As the opposition ponders whether to go or not to the process of ratifying the signatures to request Chavez recall it is interesting to review what part of the rules for the process will make it difficult to reach the goal of 2.35 million valid signatures.

First of all, in the end there was no agreement between the CNE and the Coordinadora Democrática (CD). The Coordinadora negotiated some points, but it was never able to get all of those points considered indispensable from the CNE. The CD did make it clear that some proposals, like that of the fingerprints or the possibility of appealing the results after the close of the polls were simply not negotiable. If they were approved the Coordinadora would simply not participate in the process.

Similarly, the CNE refused to negotiate some points, such as the close to 400,000 signatures which were declared invalid due to a number of technicalities, mostly dealing with the cover sheet (“Acta”) and not with the signatures themselves.

The Coordinadora did manage to convince the CNE on the following points:

-The CNE in the end decided to accept the concept of sudden death, by which the results of the process will be announced and there will be no appeal to the CNE. Each day, the CD will receive copies of all of the notebooks with the results for the day. Once the results are added for the last day, that’s it. Of course, this does not say anything about what happens if there is a numerical difference between what is announced by the CNE and what is in the notebooks.

-Initially, the CNE wanted to have a single PC at each center independent of the number of signatures. The CD had calculated that this would create a severe limitation to the total number of people that could ratify their signatures. In the end, some centers will not even have PC’s.

-Initially, the CNE wanted to have the result of the PC’s to be the final one. Given the potential for tricks, the CD refused to accept it and in the end it will be the total from the notebooks that will be the binding result.

-There will be no fingerprint checking as proposed by the legal counsel of the CNE in the first draft of the regulations.

The CD lost on a number of points:

-It wanted to have centers adjacent to those of the CNE to assist people. The idea was that the CD would tell people the status of their signature here. This would help speed up the flow by keeping people whose signatures were either valid or invalid from clogging up the lines at the CNE polling booths. The CNE did not agree to these, but may still allow them.

-The CD wanted to have the CNE polling centers stay open as long as there were people in line. The CNE approved that this would happen only on the last day. (I see no rationale for this)

-The CD wanted to have partial results made public every single day, this was not approved. (Once again, this has no rationale)

-Perhaps the most amazing twist of logic is that the regulations state that there will be five days for the ratification process, but the CNE got away with reducing them to three by saying that the first and last day for setting up and dismantling the centers. These should not count as part of the process and it represents the most incredible interpretation of the original regulations.

In the end, what this shows, at least to me, is that the only questionable aspect is that the three days may not be enough for everyone that wants to ratify their signature, given the nature of the process, the use of the PC’s and the fact that thousands of Chavistas may go to the booths simply to create lines. Given that the opposition needs as many as possible to ratify their signatures, this in the end may be its demise. Once again a subtle trick could make the whole difference.

As the opposition ponders whether to go or not to the process of ratifying the signatures to request Chavez recall it is interesting to review what part of the rules for the process will make it difficult to reach the goal of 2.35 million valid signatures.

First of all, in the end there was no agreement between the CNE and the Coordinadora Democrática (CD). The Coordinadora negotiated some points, but it was never able to get all of those points considered indispensable from the CNE. The CD did make it clear that some proposals, like that of the fingerprints or the possibility of appealing the results after the close of the polls were simply not negotiable. If they were approved the Coordinadora would simply not participate in the process.

Similarly, the CNE refused to negotiate some points, such as the close to 400,000 signatures which were declared invalid due to a number of technicalities, mostly dealing with the cover sheet (“Acta”) and not with the signatures themselves.

The Coordinadora did manage to convince the CNE on the following points:

-The CNE in the end decided to accept the concept of sudden death, by which the results of the process will be announced and there will be no appeal to the CNE. Each day, the CD will receive copies of all of the notebooks with the results for the day. Once the results are added for the last day, that’s it. Of course, this does not say anything about what happens if there is a numerical difference between what is announced by the CNE and what is in the notebooks.

-Initially, the CNE wanted to have a single PC at each center independent of the number of signatures. The CD had calculated that this would create a severe limitation to the total number of people that could ratify their signatures. In the end, some centers will not even have PC’s.

-Initially, the CNE wanted to have the result of the PC’s to be the final one. Given the potential for tricks, the CD refused to accept it and in the end it will be the total from the notebooks that will be the binding result.

-There will be no fingerprint checking as proposed by the legal counsel of the CNE in the first draft of the regulations.

The CD lost on a number of points:

-It wanted to have centers adjacent to those of the CNE to assist people. The idea was that the CD would tell people the status of their signature here. This would help speed up the flow by keeping people whose signatures were either valid or invalid from clogging up the lines at the CNE polling booths. The CNE did not agree to these, but may still allow them.

-The CD wanted to have the CNE polling centers stay open as long as there were people in line. The CNE approved that this would happen only on the last day. (I see no rationale for this)

-The CD wanted to have partial results made public every single day, this was not approved. (Once again, this has no rationale)

-Perhaps the most amazing twist of logic is that the regulations state that there will be five days for the ratification process, but the CNE got away with reducing them to three by saying that the first and last day for setting up and dismantling the centers. These should not count as part of the process and it represents the most incredible interpretation of the original regulations.

In the end, what this shows, at least to me, is that the only questionable aspect is that the three days may not be enough for everyone that wants to ratify their signature, given the nature of the process, the use of the PC’s and the fact that thousands of Chavistas may go to the booths simply to create lines. Given that the opposition needs as many as possible to ratify their signatures, this in the end may be its demise. Once again a subtle trick could make the whole difference.

On Thursday Hugo Chavez held a meeting at the Presidential palace to “celebrate” the placing of the New 2011 bond. The issue was for US$ 1 billion, has a coupon of three month Libor plus 1% and there was demand for twice as much as the size of the issue.

It was a carefully coordinated show, with the Vice-Minister of finance in New York interviewing analysts about how great the economic team is doing and how well received these bond issues are. The Venezuelan Ambassador to the US also spoke abut how well received this issues are in the US.

Then came Chavez who rambled on in his usual style, talking about the fact that these bonds demonstrate the confidence that foreign investors have in Venezuela, following the line of the country’s economic team and his representative to the US.

Well, the truth is that this bond was sold to local investors only in local currency. In fact, they are not registered with the SEC and are issued under the so called Reg “S” which means that for forty days, no US investor will be able to buy it. Thus, what was left unsaid is that it was succesful because it was sold to locals, thanks to the exchange controls. Yes, foreign investors will buy them eventually, but not because the economic team is wonderful or doing well (technically you can’t fault these issues), but because oil prices are high, nothing more, nothing less.

The rest is simply smoke and mirrors.

On Thursday Hugo Chavez held a meeting at the Presidential palace to “celebrate” the placing of the New 2011 bond. The issue was for US$ 1 billion, has a coupon of three month Libor plus 1% and there was demand for twice as much as the size of the issue.

It was a carefully coordinated show, with the Vice-Minister of finance in New York interviewing analysts about how great the economic team is doing and how well received these bond issues are. The Venezuelan Ambassador to the US also spoke abut how well received this issues are in the US.

Then came Chavez who rambled on in his usual style, talking about the fact that these bonds demonstrate the confidence that foreign investors have in Venezuela, following the line of the country’s economic team and his representative to the US.

Well, the truth is that this bond was sold to local investors only in local currency. In fact, they are not registered with the SEC and are issued under the so called Reg “S” which means that for forty days, no US investor will be able to buy it. Thus, what was left unsaid is that it was succesful because it was sold to locals, thanks to the exchange controls. Yes, foreign investors will buy them eventually, but not because the economic team is wonderful or doing well (technically you can’t fault these issues), but because oil prices are high, nothing more, nothing less.

The rest is simply smoke and mirrors.

No sooner had the Minister of Defense suspended permits to carry guns that the Mayor of the Bolivar municipality in Zulia state was murdered by three gunmen. Mayor Franklin Duno was an opposition mayor week known for his stance against the Government’s efforts to reverse the decentralization process. It does appear to be a robbery and not politically motivated.

This is not a joke. If you read Spanish, please go here and read exactly what was said. If you still don’t believe any rational, decent and civilized human being could possible say this, then check it out here.

Here is a fairly close and detailed translation of what the former President of the Venezuelan National Assembly said today, I heard it, so it is not the opposition media inventing it. Mr. Lara, a pro-Chavez supporter, who does not even deserve being called Mr. but simply scum, said:

Pro-Government forces will execute operation “Popular Sovereignty” which will consist in visiting the people who appear in the lists of valid signatures (to request Chavez’ recall) and under observation with the purpose of  “convincing them that it is pertinent to void the signatures when they are valid and not ratifying them when it deals with those that are under observation or need to be ratified”

They estimate that the goal “will likely reach voiding 15% at least of the signatures considered valid by the National Electoral Council in the case of the presidential recall vote”

He explained that they are convinced that many of the signatures were collected “thru blackmail and pressure”

This is probably one of the most fascist, totalitarian and abusive statements I have heard during this Chavista Government. To threaten to “visit” people to ‘convince’ them is so absurd and abusive that I simply can’t believe any rational, civilized and sensible human being could have said what William Lara said. This guy is simply scum, pure scum, he should be despised and if we ever get rid of all of this scum, he should be brought to trial for violating people’s civil rights. He represents fascism at its worst

Shame on him and those around him that have planned this sordid operation which should be called “Operation Total Shame” and sets a new low for this totalitarian and abusive Government.

This is not a joke. If you read Spanish, please go here and read exactly what was said. If you still don’t believe any rational, decent and civilized human being could possible say this, then check it out here.

Here is a fairly close and detailed translation of what the former President of the Venezuelan National Assembly said today, I heard it, so it is not the opposition media inventing it. Mr. Lara, a pro-Chavez supporter, who does not even deserve being called Mr. but simply scum, said:

Pro-Government forces will execute operation “Popular Sovereignty” which will consist in visiting the people who appear in the lists of valid signatures (to request Chavez’ recall) and under observation with the purpose of  “convincing them that it is pertinent to void the signatures when they are valid and not ratifying them when it deals with those that are under observation or need to be ratified”

They estimate that the goal “will likely reach voiding 15% at least of the signatures considered valid by the National Electoral Council in the case of the presidential recall vote”

He explained that they are convinced that many of the signatures were collected “thru blackmail and pressure”

This is probably one of the most fascist, totalitarian and abusive statements I have heard during this Chavista Government. To threaten to “visit” people to ‘convince’ them is so absurd and abusive that I simply can’t believe any rational, civilized and sensible human being could have said what William Lara said. This guy is simply scum, pure scum, he should be despised and if we ever get rid of all of this scum, he should be brought to trial for violating people’s civil rights. He represents fascism at its worst

Shame on him and those around him that have planned this sordid operation which should be called “Operation Total Shame” and sets a new low for this totalitarian and abusive Government.