The Devil's Excrement

The Venezuelan Government began its Mision Wild, Wild, West today and voided today all permits to carry arms. All citizens wishing to renew their permit will be required to carry out a ballistic test on their weapon before renewing their permit at no cost.

This is a typical Chavista solution to the problem of crime and deaths every day in Venezuela, as if the criminals involved in these crimes actually had permits to carry their guns. What this truly means is that those that have legal weapons will not be able to use them for the next 90 days, criminals will continue to use them and in 90 days you will have all weapons used for defensive purposes registered and tested ballistically while a huge number of weapons, much larger than the legal ones, floats around the barrios killing people every weekend. If you don’t believe me, just watch the number of deaths next Monday in the local papers.

I don’t like weapons; I have never fired one or carried one. I am not the type that believes that there is a right to bear arms (That is part of the US Constitution, but not of ours). What I do understand is that most killings take place within the family circle and that to really prevent deaths from handguns; you have to provide something more than just a decree banning all weapons.

I am not sure what the Government intends to do with this. I could be extremely paranoid and think there is an ulterior motive, like jailing lots of opposition figures or their bodyguards in the next few weeks for carrying weapons. But in the end this is probably another shotgun solution, maybe Chavez will announce on Sunday the Mision Wild, Wild West, to stop violent deaths in the barrios, much like the other Misiones which are nothing more than propaganda ploys to raise the President’s popularity.

To stop the killings in the barrios you need more prevention in the form of police, a good judicial system and continuous confiscation of illegal weapons. But in Venezuela we seem to believe in “magic” solutions. You don’t stop crime by banning weapons, the same way you don’t stop corruption by making it illegal. Much like this decree banning weapons, Venezuela probably has had for decades one of the most advanced anti-corruption bills in the world and we all know what has happened with that problem!

Ironically, the ploy is to attack the problem of crime, one of the most important problems facing Venezuelans five years ago when they went to the polls and elected Chavez. Many Venezuelans naively believed that given Chavez’ military background, he would make this his first priority. Well, five years later, after crime has grown four fold in the last five years, the Chavez administration appears at last to be taking a stab at the problem. Unfortunately the methods and techniques are as ineffective as those being used to solve most problems in Venezuela today by the current Government.

Last night, after I had gone to bed, the CNE announced that the regulations for the ratification process for the signatures had been approved with the usual three to two vote by the members of the Board of The Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE). The CNE also announced the final numbers of the signatures that are valid (1.910.965), those that are considered under observation or had problems (1.192.114). This implies that the opposition will need to have 580,231 voters show up to say they did sign the first time around. These numbers also have 83.948 more valid signatures than announced by the President of the CNE last March 2^nd., but conversations between the opposition and the CNE had also indicated that there were about 100,000 more signatures that could be ratified, which have now mysteriously disappeared.

The process for the recall referendum will take place on May 27^th. to 31^st., with the first and last days to “set up” in another mysterious and unheard of interpretation of the regulations. There will be no fingerprint verification as had been proposed and the CNE workers manning the poling booths will use the national ID card as valid identification for the person. These workers may be able to challenge the identity of the person if there are differences.

The regulations contemplate the concept of “sudden death” by which once the totals are added from the electoral notebooks, that total will be announced and no challenge may be presented to the CNE on the signatures contained in them.

Each polling station will be manned by 2 CNE workers and two alternates and there will be one operator with its alternate. There will be a witness from each side. The polls will be opened from 6 AM to 6PM for all three days, but if there are still lines when they close on the last day, they will remain open.

Each polling station will have infrastructure according to its size. Since people will have to go to the same station that they signed in, the CNE knows how many signatures can be ratified in each center. Those centers with less than 100 possible signatures to ratify will have only electoral notebooks with no PC’s and one table. If the number is between 100 and 1100 there will be one notebook and one PC. There will e two notebooks and two PC’s in those with 1101 to 21000 and for those with more than 2101 there will be three tables, three notebooks and three PC’s.

The CNE once again said that the information with the result of each signature will be published in the newspapers, which I still want to see given that 3.4million signatures in legible format would require a phone book sized document. The re will also be a telephone number, a web page and the information will be posted in all the polling booths. There will be a total of 2659 centers for people to go to.

International observers will be allowed to participate in the process and former President Jimmy Carter already confirmed that the Carter Center will participate.

A month ago I would have been very excited with this process, today I simply can’t. I am sitting here as I write this wondering where the next trick is going to come from. Is it going to be an injunction by the Comando Ayacucho against the process? Is it going to be thousands of Chavistas going to the ratification process at the end of May to clog up the lines? Is it going to be a fraudulent procedure to say thousands of people went and said they never signed? I simply don’t know, but I know its coming, after everything that has been done to block the process I can not think the Chavistas will sit and allow us to ratify a sufficiently large number of signatures.

While the opposition has yet to say that they will go forward and participate, I think they will approve it. It certainly looks doable to get the less than 50% of those that signed to go and say that they did. In fact, with the appropriate mobilization it looks quite reasonable that the opposition will be successful. Basically, the opposition can identify a large number of those whose signatures can be ratified and can make the effort to encourage them to go out and even offer help when needed. Those that signed for Chavez’s recall are sufficiently motivated that this should be quite possible.

The Chavistas claim that they will have 250,000 to 280,000 people go and say they withdraw their signatures. The opposition thinks this an exaggeration no matter what threats are made against people. The opposition thinks this number will be around 60,000. It would seem reasonable than in the absence of tricks, the opposition will manage to drive out 60%-plus of those whose signatures have been questioned.

Thus, it will come down to tricks and fraud. The opposition has to be vigilant about where the tricks will come from this time around. Last time, nobody saw the problem with the same calligraphy forms, a concept that was invented once the Chavistas realized that the opposition had indeed gathered sufficient signatures to hold the recall. Somehow I think this time it will be some legal maneuvering which will stop the process sufficiently to slow it down once again. But who knows. There is also the wildcard that the Electoral hall will in the end manage to get the issue to the full Court and all of the same calligraphy forms be validated.

But in the end, it is hard to get excited. For months playing dirty has been the rule at the CNE. CNE Directors and the Constitutional Hall of the Supreme Court have shown they are partial to the Government and blocking the process. They have no qualms, no morals to do what is ethical, right or legal. Thus, we can expect more of the same, boding badly for the recall, the opposition and the country. This is our last chance to stop Chavez.

Last night, after I had gone to bed, the CNE announced that the regulations for the ratification process for the signatures had been approved with the usual three to two vote by the members of the Board of The Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE). The CNE also announced the final numbers of the signatures that are valid (1.910.965), those that are considered under observation or had problems (1.192.114). This implies that the opposition will need to have 580,231 voters show up to say they did sign the first time around. These numbers also have 83.948 more valid signatures than announced by the President of the CNE last March 2^nd., but conversations between the opposition and the CNE had also indicated that there were about 100,000 more signatures that could be ratified, which have now mysteriously disappeared.

The process for the recall referendum will take place on May 27^th. to 31^st., with the first and last days to “set up” in another mysterious and unheard of interpretation of the regulations. There will be no fingerprint verification as had been proposed and the CNE workers manning the poling booths will use the national ID card as valid identification for the person. These workers may be able to challenge the identity of the person if there are differences.

The regulations contemplate the concept of “sudden death” by which once the totals are added from the electoral notebooks, that total will be announced and no challenge may be presented to the CNE on the signatures contained in them.

Each polling station will be manned by 2 CNE workers and two alternates and there will be one operator with its alternate. There will be a witness from each side. The polls will be opened from 6 AM to 6PM for all three days, but if there are still lines when they close on the last day, they will remain open.

Each polling station will have infrastructure according to its size. Since people will have to go to the same station that they signed in, the CNE knows how many signatures can be ratified in each center. Those centers with less than 100 possible signatures to ratify will have only electoral notebooks with no PC’s and one table. If the number is between 100 and 1100 there will be one notebook and one PC. There will e two notebooks and two PC’s in those with 1101 to 21000 and for those with more than 2101 there will be three tables, three notebooks and three PC’s.

The CNE once again said that the information with the result of each signature will be published in the newspapers, which I still want to see given that 3.4million signatures in legible format would require a phone book sized document. The re will also be a telephone number, a web page and the information will be posted in all the polling booths. There will be a total of 2659 centers for people to go to.

International observers will be allowed to participate in the process and former President Jimmy Carter already confirmed that the Carter Center will participate.

A month ago I would have been very excited with this process, today I simply can’t. I am sitting here as I write this wondering where the next trick is going to come from. Is it going to be an injunction by the Comando Ayacucho against the process? Is it going to be thousands of Chavistas going to the ratification process at the end of May to clog up the lines? Is it going to be a fraudulent procedure to say thousands of people went and said they never signed? I simply don’t know, but I know its coming, after everything that has been done to block the process I can not think the Chavistas will sit and allow us to ratify a sufficiently large number of signatures.

While the opposition has yet to say that they will go forward and participate, I think they will approve it. It certainly looks doable to get the less than 50% of those that signed to go and say that they did. In fact, with the appropriate mobilization it looks quite reasonable that the opposition will be successful. Basically, the opposition can identify a large number of those whose signatures can be ratified and can make the effort to encourage them to go out and even offer help when needed. Those that signed for Chavez’s recall are sufficiently motivated that this should be quite possible.

The Chavistas claim that they will have 250,000 to 280,000 people go and say they withdraw their signatures. The opposition thinks this an exaggeration no matter what threats are made against people. The opposition thinks this number will be around 60,000. It would seem reasonable than in the absence of tricks, the opposition will manage to drive out 60%-plus of those whose signatures have been questioned.

Thus, it will come down to tricks and fraud. The opposition has to be vigilant about where the tricks will come from this time around. Last time, nobody saw the problem with the same calligraphy forms, a concept that was invented once the Chavistas realized that the opposition had indeed gathered sufficient signatures to hold the recall. Somehow I think this time it will be some legal maneuvering which will stop the process sufficiently to slow it down once again. But who knows. There is also the wildcard that the Electoral hall will in the end manage to get the issue to the full Court and all of the same calligraphy forms be validated.

But in the end, it is hard to get excited. For months playing dirty has been the rule at the CNE. CNE Directors and the Constitutional Hall of the Supreme Court have shown they are partial to the Government and blocking the process. They have no qualms, no morals to do what is ethical, right or legal. Thus, we can expect more of the same, boding badly for the recall, the opposition and the country. This is our last chance to stop Chavez.

As we await for the CNE to approve the procedures for the ratification process of the signatures, the Government continues the process to control everything:

-The National Assembly continues to push for the approval of the new Supreme Court Bill, which would add 10 or 12 Justices to the Court with a simple majority of the assembly. Thus, as if the Court were not already controlled, the Chavismo would have ironclad control.

-Meanwhile the Chavistas continue attempting to change the rules of order in the assembly so that next time they need a law approved expeditiously (A new Central Bank law?), it will happen in a very short time.

-And there are rumors (This is the only country where three Justices can’t keep a decision secret) that the Constitutional Hall will declare that there is no conflict between its activities and those of the Electoral Hall, and that the decision by that Hall is illegal.  As we say in Spanish the Constitutional Hall is paying itself and making change for itself at the same time.

Essentially, we all have lost our ability to be amazed or surprised by anything. Whether it is human rights violations, disrespect for the law or abuse of power, we have essentially seen everything as we wait to be abused once again.

Two interesting articles on the economy today, both interviews with well known left-wing economists. One with Central Bank Director Domingo Maza Zavala in el Universal (free) and the other in Tal Cual, page 8,  (by subscription) with the former Head of the Economic Office of the National Assembly Francisco Rodriguez. Both are highly critical of the Government’s economic policies.

Maza Zavala is quite drastic saying “we live in the worst of all possible worlds”. First, he says that what is happening is an economic recovery but not growth, because he says we are coming from two years of string contraction, we would need much more. He calls the productive system “stagnant”, saying that construction is still stalled at a time that lending rates are negative. Despite this, there is no credit demand.

Maza Zavala says CADIVI; the exchange control office is still not efficient enough with US$ 5 trillion in approvals that have yet to reach to materialize due to procedures. He says this induces people to go to the parallel market, which influences in 40% the CPI. Maza says “the most expensive item is that which you can’t buy”.

He calls the worst of all possible worlds because there is high inflation, unemployment and insufficient purchasing power on the part of the population.

Maza calls public expenditures unproductive, saying that devaluation and bureaucratization are reducing the effectiveness of public expenditures. He says “More social expenditures do not lead necessarily to better attention. Most of those expenditures are lost or wasted”

Francisco Rodriguez’ interview may actually be more interesting. Rodriguez says he was very sympathetic to Chavez’ Government, thinking that he thought the Government would emphasize social policies. However, he found a radical Government which he believes may turn into a dictatorship with little respect for human rights. This created huge conflicts in him.

To my surprise he says his conflicts began as early as one month into his job at the economic office, when pro-Chavez forces had expected his reports to be totally favorable to the Government.  He points to his analysis of the 2000 budget as one case where his criticism gained him enemies and conflicts.

He calls macroeconomic management so deficient that it leads to a fiscal crisis in 2002. At that point social expenditures had to be reduced to increase debt servicing.

Rodriguez calls the “Misiones” a parallel state that is very ineffective because it attempts to solve problems in isolated fashion. He calls this an alternative structure of state. He says these are going to be difficult to remove because they represent a power structure that Chavismo will like to maintain. He says we are having a colossal economic crisis with real salaries dropping to a quarter of what they used to be. In on of his most interesting comments he says that Chavez has retained support because in some sense economic management has always been so bad that people are used to it being deficient and the economic issue is not prominent in politics. He also suggests that Chavez has managed to convince his supporters that the Government is not responsible for economic performance and the opposition is. Rodriguez says that while the strike in 2002 had an impact on the economy, economic policy has made matters much worse than they had to be.

Rodriguez says jokingly that if he woke up and found himself in Charge of the Government’s policy, the first thing he would do is resign. He believes that with adequate expansive fiscal and monetary policies and multilateral financing one could achieve 8% economic growth for two or three years. He would eliminate exchange controls gradually by officializing the parallel market and would reduce the deficit to 1-2% of GDP. 

Rodriguez resigned from his academic position at the University of Maryland to come back and join the Government, he will now go back to academic life but locally.

The report on human rights in Venezuela by the US State Department is out and it is not pretty. It is extremely long as it deals with all aspects of human rights, from free speech to women rights. It is quite disturbing to read it, Venezuela has become a country in which not only there are routine violations of human rights, but even worse they are not investigated and those responsible are not found. Total impunity is the name of the game if you are a victim in Venezuela. It is actually indifferent which side you are on, forget about justice or someone defending your rights.

Here are some of the highlights:

—Arbitrary or unlawful deprivation of life

-There were a dozen politically motivated killings in 2003.

-Opposition members received death threats or were intimidated by Government supporters.

-There were 130 extrajudicial killings from October 2002 to September 2003. Some of these were summary executions of criminal suspects while in custody.

-Killing of Government supporters in Apure state were blamed on Colombian guerillas which was denied by national leaders of the same party.

-Eight ranchers were kidnapped and killed. Ransom demands were beyond the ability of those kidnapped or no demand was made.

-A human rights worker in Zulia working for the U.N. Commission on refugees was shot and killed. He received eleven bullets.

-The Government rarely prosecutes cases of extrajudicial killings and characterizes them as “confrontations”

-Death squads composed of police members killed hundreds in the last year. The press registered 854 such cases, only a small number got to the Courts, members of security forces if convicted received light sentences.

-The Chief Prosecutor reported 1541 people killed since 1999 by the police. Death squad cases increased exponentially in 2002.

-Demonstrators from both sides were killed during marches.

—Disappearance

-116 ranchers were kidnapped in 2003. 22 remained captive at the end of the year. While these cases used to involve mostly Colombian guerrillas, common criminals have become involved.

—Torture

-Most victims of torture were poor and torture took place during interrogation.

-PROVEA documented 137 cases affecting 567 victims. Very few cases resulted in convictions.

-There were five bombings during the year, against foreign embassies, the house of one pro-Government Deputy and one with no clear target.

-Prison conditions are terrible, the report callas them inhuman. 48% of prisoners are awaiting trial. Most prisoners have to pay to even eat

—Arbitrary Arrest

-There were arbitrary detentions by the Caracas Metropolitan Police, the political police DISP, municipal forces and the investigative police CICPC. Provea documents 3627 such cases in the year.

—Denial of fair or public trial

-There are only 619 public defenders in the country, which have 150 cases on average but as many as 520 per defender.

– The Supreme Court ordered the replacement of the First Court on administrative matters by two Courts but has failed to name these Courts.

-There were no reports of political prisoners.

—Freedom of Speech

-There were reprisals against those that publicly criticized the Government.

-There were 93 aggressions against reporters in 2003.

-There were six attacks against reporters with explosive devices.

-There were sixty attacks on media installations.

-The Government has failed to investigate any of these attacks.

-The Government has pressured the media with administrative procedures. 15 such cases were reported in 2003.

-There are no restrictions on the Internet (If you are reading this, there are none!)

—Freedom of Association and Assembly

-Opposition figures and marches were attacked by alleged Government supporters.

-The Government claimed the metropolitan Police used excessive force against demonstrations, but failed to bring charges.

-Non Government associations that receive foreign funding were denied the right to represent citizens in Court or bring their own legal action. The Court also ruled the Government had the right to oversee democracy within these institutions and therefore the elections of their leadership can be regulated by the Electoral Board.

–Freedom of Religion

-There were verbal attacks on religious institutions by the President.

-There were fie attacks on the church and its symbols.

—Freedom of Movement

–There were 9533 deportation, most of which did not follow the thirty day period required by law.

—Respect for political rights

-The Interamerican Human Rights Court ordered the Government to compensate victims of the 1989 Caracazo, while the President said the decision was not binding, since then the Government has complied.

—Discrimination

-Violence against women is a severe problem.

-Sexual harassment in the workplace is not a criminal offense. (Note: I did not know this!)

-Women are underrepresented in general, but are 50% of the student body of universities.

-1.6 million children work illegally. mostly in the informal sector.

-240,000 abandoned children roam the streets.

The report on human rights in Venezuela by the US State Department is out and it is not pretty. It is extremely long as it deals with all aspects of human rights, from free speech to women rights. It is quite disturbing to read it, Venezuela has become a country in which not only there are routine violations of human rights, but even worse they are not investigated and those responsible are not found. Total impunity is the name of the game if you are a victim in Venezuela. It is actually indifferent which side you are on, forget about justice or someone defending your rights.

Here are some of the highlights:

—Arbitrary or unlawful deprivation of life

-There were a dozen politically motivated killings in 2003.

-Opposition members received death threats or were intimidated by Government supporters.

-There were 130 extrajudicial killings from October 2002 to September 2003. Some of these were summary executions of criminal suspects while in custody.

-Killing of Government supporters in Apure state were blamed on Colombian guerillas which was denied by national leaders of the same party.

-Eight ranchers were kidnapped and killed. Ransom demands were beyond the ability of those kidnapped or no demand was made.

-A human rights worker in Zulia working for the U.N. Commission on refugees was shot and killed. He received eleven bullets.

-The Government rarely prosecutes cases of extrajudicial killings and characterizes them as “confrontations”

-Death squads composed of police members killed hundreds in the last year. The press registered 854 such cases, only a small number got to the Courts, members of security forces if convicted received light sentences.

-The Chief Prosecutor reported 1541 people killed since 1999 by the police. Death squad cases increased exponentially in 2002.

-Demonstrators from both sides were killed during marches.

—Disappearance

-116 ranchers were kidnapped in 2003. 22 remained captive at the end of the year. While these cases used to involve mostly Colombian guerrillas, common criminals have become involved.

—Torture

-Most victims of torture were poor and torture took place during interrogation.

-PROVEA documented 137 cases affecting 567 victims. Very few cases resulted in convictions.

-There were five bombings during the year, against foreign embassies, the house of one pro-Government Deputy and one with no clear target.

-Prison conditions are terrible, the report callas them inhuman. 48% of prisoners are awaiting trial. Most prisoners have to pay to even eat

—Arbitrary Arrest

-There were arbitrary detentions by the Caracas Metropolitan Police, the political police DISP, municipal forces and the investigative police CICPC. Provea documents 3627 such cases in the year.

—Denial of fair or public trial

-There are only 619 public defenders in the country, which have 150 cases on average but as many as 520 per defender.

– The Supreme Court ordered the replacement of the First Court on administrative matters by two Courts but has failed to name these Courts.

-There were no reports of political prisoners.

—Freedom of Speech

-There were reprisals against those that publicly criticized the Government.

-There were 93 aggressions against reporters in 2003.

-There were six attacks against reporters with explosive devices.

-There were sixty attacks on media installations.

-The Government has failed to investigate any of these attacks.

-The Government has pressured the media with administrative procedures. 15 such cases were reported in 2003.

-There are no restrictions on the Internet (If you are reading this, there are none!)

—Freedom of Association and Assembly

-Opposition figures and marches were attacked by alleged Government supporters.

-The Government claimed the metropolitan Police used excessive force against demonstrations, but failed to bring charges.

-Non Government associations that receive foreign funding were denied the right to represent citizens in Court or bring their own legal action. The Court also ruled the Government had the right to oversee democracy within these institutions and therefore the elections of their leadership can be regulated by the Electoral Board.

–Freedom of Religion

-There were verbal attacks on religious institutions by the President.

-There were fie attacks on the church and its symbols.

—Freedom of Movement

–There were 9533 deportation, most of which did not follow the thirty day period required by law.

—Respect for political rights

-The Interamerican Human Rights Court ordered the Government to compensate victims of the 1989 Caracazo, while the President said the decision was not binding, since then the Government has complied.

—Discrimination

-Violence against women is a severe problem.

-Sexual harassment in the workplace is not a criminal offense. (Note: I did not know this!)

-Women are underrepresented in general, but are 50% of the student body of universities.

-1.6 million children work illegally. mostly in the informal sector.

-240,000 abandoned children roam the streets.

-Scott sends this link from a tech web page with a fairly good article about the Venezuelan situation.

–There was a march today, it was a holiday here but I could not go because I had to work. The march was not allowed to go until the Los Proceres monument because the Government argued this is a security zone. The march only went as far as the Solicitor’s office building nearby. A group was supposed to be allowed to go forward to the monument with a floral arrangement, but the National Guard refused to let the private media thru which prompted the organizers to refuse the offer. The Los Proceres monument is a public monument.

-Meanwhile, the Government was highly critical of the statements made by Democratic Senator Bill Nelson to the Miami Herald, while the Vice-President said that all that Nelson said was false, the Minister of Foreign Relations said that the intelligence data that Nelson claimed to have seen had the same quality of that used to detect the attack on the Twin Towers or decide that there were WMD in Iraq. Thus, our illustrious Minister of Foreign Relations turns an argument against a Democratic Senator into an argument with the US Government. Bolivarian diplomacy at work!

-Scott sends this link from a tech web page with a fairly good article about the Venezuelan situation.

–There was a march today, it was a holiday here but I could not go because I had to work. The march was not allowed to go until the Los Proceres monument because the Government argued this is a security zone. The march only went as far as the Solicitor’s office building nearby. A group was supposed to be allowed to go forward to the monument with a floral arrangement, but the National Guard refused to let the private media thru which prompted the organizers to refuse the offer. The Los Proceres monument is a public monument.

-Meanwhile, the Government was highly critical of the statements made by Democratic Senator Bill Nelson to the Miami Herald, while the Vice-President said that all that Nelson said was false, the Minister of Foreign Relations said that the intelligence data that Nelson claimed to have seen had the same quality of that used to detect the attack on the Twin Towers or decide that there were WMD in Iraq. Thus, our illustrious Minister of Foreign Relations turns an argument against a Democratic Senator into an argument with the US Government. Bolivarian diplomacy at work!