The Devil's Excrement

The new left-wing Mayor of Bogota Luis Garzon defines himself as Marxist-Leninist. Marxist for Groucho Marx and Leninist for John Lennon.  I wish we had somebody  with a sense of humor like that in Venezuelan politics…..

Descifrado publishes a report which quotes a source that agrees in every detail with my brother’s Alfredo views on the fact that Dictatorships need to be efficient:

“The Government has no way of implementing a violent plan, says an analyst that prefers to remain anonymous, beacuse this implies organization and capabilities. Those who are afraid of a Chavez dictatorship have to be reminded that dictatorships have to be more efficient than democracies, because they need more capability of control, a capability that this Government can not execute. If you can not even manage a hospital , how are they going to manage the strictness that a dictaorship implies? Least of all in this time of information technology, whose control is essential to maintain a dictatorial regime……”. Hope they are right, although I already believe I live in a veiled dictatorship.

Descifrado publishes a report which quotes a source that agrees in every detail with my brother’s Alfredo views on the fact that Dictatorships need to be efficient:

“The Government has no way of implementing a violent plan, says an analyst that prefers to remain anonymous, beacuse this implies organization and capabilities. Those who are afraid of a Chavez dictatorship have to be reminded that dictatorships have to be more efficient than democracies, because they need more capability of control, a capability that this Government can not execute. If you can not even manage a hospital , how are they going to manage the strictness that a dictaorship implies? Least of all in this time of information technology, whose control is essential to maintain a dictatorial regime……”. Hope they are right, although I already believe I live in a veiled dictatorship.

Up to yesterday the Government and Chavez’ MVR were opposing the possibility of international observers being present during the petition drive to collect signatures for the President’s recall, but today the Electoral Council approved (CNE) the participation of international observers. According to the President of the CNE as many as 11,780 observers will come to Venezuela representing the OAS, the PNUD and the Carter Center. Now, this may seem insignificant, but I believe this may be the most important news to come out of the CNE in the last two months…….

While Venezuelan media is reporting that Secretary General Colin Powell spoke out on the issue of the CIA’s presence in Venezuela, I have only been able to find reports of the Undersecretary Robert Noriega making some of  the same statements attributed to Powell, except for the part about the accusations being absurd. (If anyone finds a link please post in comments)

Two interesting articles on the Venezuealn oil industry in the Financial Times and the Houston Chronicles. The first (by subscription) talks about how some analysts view Venezuela as a lower risk oil investment when compared to Russia as renationalization of the oil industry appears remote (I agree, but Venezuela never ceases to surprise me):

“In Venezuela, the long-term risk is probably less,” says Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “Chances are that they will not renationalise.”

The second one, taks about the damaging effect of current policies on the oil company PDVSA and how activity has been reduced significantly:

“I used to repair 200 to 300 pumps per month, but I haven’t been called to service anything since February,” said one contractor, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Buyers complain of high water content of crudes, and contractors report high sand presence in wells and constant problems maintaining well pressure. “

But I found the part about how the country is trying to inflate its oil production figures to be the most tragic. Maybe if I did not live here I might even find it to be funny:

“Furthermore, Venezuelan authorities now insist on including upgraded synthetic crude as part of petroleum production figures, whereas Venezuela previously categorized synthetic crude as bitumen and therefore not part of quotas. While Venezuela used to understate its production figures, now it is doing its best to inflate them. “

The Venezuelan economy shrank in the third quarter by 8-9% of GDP according to the Minister of Finance. According to the Government PDVSA is up to speed and the opposition did not stage any strikes or boycotts during the quarter or the previous ones. So how come it shrank? Maybe because they are using Chavez’ profound economic statement said two weeks ago while I was away “You don’t need economic growth to improve the life of the poor”. It shows…..

Chavista Deputies presented a video today at a press conference showing a “CIA plane” arriving at Valencia airport South of Caracas with two armed CIA “agents” on board who were quickly driven away by representatives from the Governor’s office. Nothing was said as to what exactly these two men were doing, planning or whether it was dangerous. No proof was presented as to their identity or how it was determined that they were CIA agents. However, the two Deputies said that they had presented their information to US authorities. Interestingly enough, the US Ambassador to Venezuela, who tends to be too diplomatic at times, responded promptly by saying that he had received no information on the matter and even joked about saying “as you say in Spanish this is simply pure “paja” (the best translation for bullshit), suggesting the two Deputies had an overactive imagination. While I am sure the CIA is active in Venezuela, it is not clear to me what threat these guys represent to the country, what they are plotting or even if they are CIA. They could at least have looked into who owns the airplane (call letters L202HG) or what their names were. I still think Maxwell Smart and C.H.A.O.S. are also involved.