Posts Tagged ‘international reserves’

Let 2012 Be The Year Of Change and Improvement For All: The Best to You All!

December 31, 2011

The year is leaving us. The Government says we had a great year because GDP grew by 4%. I ask if with a 39.5% increase in the price of the Venezuelan oil basket and a 51.5% increase in monetary liquidity, is this supposed to be good? To say nothing of the 27.9% increase in inflation. It was only in April that Giordani was “seeing” a slowing of inflation, when the 12 month CPI stood at at 27.4% and we are closing the year not only higher, but with the highest level of inflation of any country in the world. Giordani does not see very well.

And I go back to the numbers. I like numbers. Thus, I find it curious that the President of the Venezuelan Central Bank says explicitly: “Las reservas internacionales se ubicaron en US$ 29.899 millones al 30 de diciembre de 2011” (International reserves were at US$ 29.899 millions on December 30th. 2011). Funny, as of the 29th. of December, the day before, on the webpage of the Venezuelan Central Bank the number was US$ 2.44 billion lower at US$ 27.45 billion. Where did this money magically appear from? When accounting at the Venezuelan Central Bank becomes creative, you have to be concerned. (In Spanish is called “maquillaje”, applying make up to the numbers. That’s exactly what they did)

So, Chavismo keeps stretching and stretching the distortions so they can win in 2012. But Venezuelans will have to pay one day for all of this.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that it will not be in 2012. There is too much at stake. All adjustments will have to wait for 2013, no matter who is in charge.

Given that, after this dose of numerical reality, I can only wish all the readers of the Devil, the best in 2012. Let the year be the year of change, the year of hope, the year that Venezuela turns around and finds a path of prosperity and harmony. A year in which peace and rationality prevail and rule over all of us.

Happy New Year my friends!

Will the Venezuelan Government Devalue in 2012?

December 24, 2011

The guessing game has begun. Will the Venezuelan Government devalue the currency at the beginning of 2012? Clearly a devaluation is needed, Venezuela has become very expensive,  liquid reserves are quite low, imports are soaring.

If it were an economic decision, the Government would devalue. Because it is not, it is all up to Hugo the almighty and the opinion of his minister of Planning and Finance Jorge Giordani. It has been reported that there is a report sent up to Chavez suggesting the currency be devalued. The question is what will be the decision.

Up to a few weeks ago, I thought that it was unlikely that there would be a devaluation. I have changed my mind. The odds are that there will be one, I put it at 60-70% probability. Why? Because of the deterioration of the international reserves and the Government’s infinite belief that they can control inflation using intimidation. Similarly, last years devaluation was dceided by Giordani and was larger than anyone expected, so an adjustment seems likely.

How much? That’s much harder to guess. I would think about Bs. 5.5 for the official rate and about Bs. 6..75 for the SITME rate.

Only a guess. We shall see how wrong¬† I am…

(P.S. Chavez says GDP will close at US$ 300 billion, for that to happen the economy would have to grow 26.9% in 2011, as GDP closed at Bs. 1.016 trillion in 2010 according to the Central Bank. Divided by Bs. 4.3, that gives you US$ 236.27 billion. If there is a devaluation, then it’s smaller. I wonder why that mistake was made…)