The Devil's Excrement

According to today’s Tal Cual newspaper (by subscription only, page 8) the Government’s Mercal project is already suffering from shortages only months after being initiated. Mercal, meant to compete with the private sector by importing foodstuffs at the controlled exchange rates, without paying custom duties and at cheaper prices, is becoming like many other Chavez projects, neglected after being announced with much fanfare. According to Tal Cual, the Government supermarkets suffer from even more severe shortages than those of the private sector. While most critics have focused on the lower quality products of Mercal, I still have nobody explain to me how the Government’s company has prices only 10% below free market prices since it receives foreign currency for imports at the official exchange rate of Bs. 1600 per US$ (versus US$ 2600 in the black market), pays no custom duties and is supposed to be a not-for profit project. To me this clearly demonstrates that this is simply an immense source of corruption and somebody is getting very rich at the expense of the poor of Venezuela

According to today’s Tal Cual newspaper (by subscription only, page 8) the Government’s Mercal project is already suffering from shortages only months after being initiated. Mercal, meant to compete with the private sector by importing foodstuffs at the controlled exchange rates, without paying custom duties and at cheaper prices, is becoming like many other Chavez projects, neglected after being announced with much fanfare. According to Tal Cual, the Government supermarkets suffer from even more severe shortages than those of the private sector. While most critics have focused on the lower quality products of Mercal, I still have nobody explain to me how the Government’s company has prices only 10% below free market prices since it receives foreign currency for imports at the official exchange rate of Bs. 1600 per US$ (versus US$ 2600 in the black market), pays no custom duties and is supposed to be a not-for profit project. To me this clearly demonstrates that this is simply an immense source of corruption and somebody is getting very rich at the expense of the poor of Venezuela

A new poll by US firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research (pollster to mostly US Democrats), reveals that President Chavez’ popularity has reached an all time low in July, while showing strong interest on the part of the electorate to participate in the recall referendum. Among the highlights:

– In July, 65% of the electorate expressed its desire to participate in a recall referendum versus 32% who say they will note. The number of those that say they will vote Yes in a referendum to recall Hugo Chavez is up to 65% compared to 32% who say they will vote no. This represents an increase of eight percentage points for the Yes vote versus s decrease of seven percentage points for the No vote. Very few of the voters were undecided (2%)

-More than 70% of the voters believe that the recall referendum is the way to resolve the country’s problems, while only 22% believe that it is only a way for people to take power away from Chavez.

-80% of Venezuelans believe that the referendum is an important issue, while only 12% think it is unimportant.

-Only 34% of the voters approve of Chavez’ handling of democratic and human rights while 64% dissaprove of his handling of such matters.

-No group has much confidence in the Supreme Court with those with some or a lot of confidence reaching 45% of the voters and those with little or no confidence reaching 50% of the voters.

– Even if only the percentage of voters who showed up for Chavez’ 2000 election were to go to the polls, his mandate would be revoked by the recall referendum.

-Chavez’ approval rating is down significantly since April with 61% of the voters expressing their disproval and 34% their approval. On specific issues like crime, his rating is actually even lower.

-Issues like currency control, violence, not naming the CNE and the Media content Law extract strong reactions from the voters in term of disapproval of the Government’s actions. State media actually ahs a much lower approval rating than private media. More than 52% of the voters blame the Government for political violence while 26% blame the opposition.

-In terms of candidates, any opposition candidate whether it is Salas Romer, Mendoza or Borges would beat the President handily.

-A large majority (59%) of Venezuelans believe that the recall referendum takes precedence over those to recall Governors or Majors.

I recommend the interview with Mexican economist Luis Pazos in today’s El Universal. He has some very graphic metaphors, besides his usual sensible economic advise. I particularly liked:

-“He sees Chavez as a dinosaur, small and slow, and, thanks God, on its way to extinction”

-“If the Government does not cease in its attitude of imposing a siege on the private sector, whom it considers its enemy, will drive the economy to a degree of improductivity that will imply more than a collapse, a hara-kiri, that will not only kill the current Government, but also thousands of Venezuelans”

-“There is no justification for an economy to have collapsed in such a way as it did last year, and next year it will be worse, because in 2002 crude oil prices were very strong and they will likely fall significantly in 2004”

Wish we had someone as clear thinking as him in the Finance Comittee of the National Assembly (from either side)

The pro-Chavez leadership in the National Asembly rejected yesterday’s decision by the Supreme Court, giving them ten days to choose the members of the Electoral Board. According to them, there has been no omission since they had made all efforts to select the members of the Electoral Board. Interesting, there is no omission but they had ten days from April 8th. to select the Board, let’s see that makes it 18th. of April and today is August 5th., I guess they just don’t understand what omission means, no? But the part I don’t understand is that they say that it would appear to be a contradiction to replace a transitory regime (the current CNE) for another one that would still “would continue to lack constitutionally or democratic legitimacy”. It seems to me that it never bothered them to have the previous transient CNE until it started threatening them and now they find their same transient nature “undemocratic and illegimitate”? What cynics.

The pro-Chavez leadership in the National Asembly rejected yesterday’s decision by the Supreme Court, giving them ten days to choose the members of the Electoral Board. According to them, there has been no omission since they had made all efforts to select the members of the Electoral Board. Interesting, there is no omission but they had ten days from April 8th. to select the Board, let’s see that makes it 18th. of April and today is August 5th., I guess they just don’t understand what omission means, no? But the part I don’t understand is that they say that it would appear to be a contradiction to replace a transitory regime (the current CNE) for another one that would still “would continue to lack constitutionally or democratic legitimacy”. It seems to me that it never bothered them to have the previous transient CNE until it started threatening them and now they find their same transient nature “undemocratic and illegimitate”? What cynics.

By coincidence I realized yesterday that today was the one year anniversary of this blog. What a ride it has been! I started it because I was curious about my brother blogging intensely and as usual, I do not like being behind technologically speaking (even if I am). I dowloaded the software and wanted to see where it would take me. Never did I imagine that it would become a daily commitment like it has. I thought I would blog more about technology, orchids and curious facts and less about Venezuela. I guess events took over my Editorial content. At some point, soon after I started, I decided I would make my blog a depository record of the bizarre Government and events in Venezuela and a medium to explain to the world (if it is at all possible) from a definitely anti-Chavez point of view what is happening in Venezuela, documenting the news and the legalities of what has happened. It’s been fun!

Some interesting graphs on Chavez’ TV ratings from AGB Panamericana sent to me by JL. The first one below shows the number of hours Chavez has spent on the air in the last five years. Note that despite the fact that we are barely in August, he has almost spent more hours on Tv than than any previous year. These hours are the number of hours he gives speeches on TV in nationwide adresses that have to be broadcast by all networks.

The second graph below shows the percentage of the time that the market share for Cable TV is actually higher than that for the open TV signals that are forced to carry his speeches, when they occur. (People have a choice on Cable TV, not on the networks) Note that this is the market share, that is the number of viewers who are actually watching, not the number of potential viewers. More people watching cable means that they simply dont want to watch Chavez at all.

Finally, the last chart shows the ratings for Chavez’ famous or infamous Sunday TV program which is shown on the Government’s TV channel. Note how his rating went up last Xmas (time between teh two solid lines) during the work-stoppage but is back down to below 1%. This is rating the percentage of potential TV’s that are watching him on Sundays.

Some interesting graphs on Chavez’ TV ratings from AGB Panamericana sent to me by JL. The first one below shows the number of hours Chavez has spent on the air in the last five years. Note that despite the fact that we are barely in August, he has almost spent more hours on Tv than than any previous year. These hours are the number of hours he gives speeches on TV in nationwide adresses that have to be broadcast by all networks.

The second graph below shows the percentage of the time that the market share for Cable TV is actually higher than that for the open TV signals that are forced to carry his speeches, when they occur. (People have a choice on Cable TV, not on the networks) Note that this is the market share, that is the number of viewers who are actually watching, not the number of potential viewers. More people watching cable means that they simply dont want to watch Chavez at all.

Finally, the last chart shows the ratings for Chavez’ famous or infamous Sunday TV program which is shown on the Government’s TV channel. Note how his rating went up last Xmas (time between teh two solid lines) during the work-stoppage but is back down to below 1%. This is rating the percentage of potential TV’s that are watching him on Sundays.

It is interesting to look at the recent elections (search for Federacion de Centros and you get all of the news) at the Universidad de Los Andes because in some sense they are a reflection of the mood in the country, down to the details of denial and lack of information on all sides. The so-called Federacion de Centros is the organization that is equivalent to Student Council at any US University. In Venezuela political parties field candidates in these elections. There were three candidates, two for the opposition and on for Chavez’ MVR. In the end one of the opposition candidates Nixon Moreno, came in first place with 37.5-39% of the votes, followed by another opposition candidate Covelsi Sanchez who received 29-32% of the votes and in last place Tareck El Aisami, Chavez’ MVR’s candidate with roughly 27-28% of the vote. Mr. El Aisami was seeking reelection for a position he won running away during Mr. Chavez first year in power. Thus, the Chavistas were trounced 66%-71% to 27-28% in a segment of population where in any other country the “left” should win running away. There are a number of interesting facts about this election:

-Since the first day, there have been no more reports by either side on the percentage of the votes. Typical of Venezuela, since we know who won, who cares about the numbers, why publish them, count the votes or report them (I care! They are meaningful!)

-The loser Mr. El Aisami, refuses to accept that he lost.

– The Chavista Governor of Merida State Florencio Porras, while admitting Mr. El Aisami’s defeat, refuses to recognize him as the Chavista candidate, saying instead that he was “ the candidate of an alliance which included the youth of Chavez’ MVR”. Oh, I see! He was chosen by the youth of MVR but can not be interpreted as a loss for MVR. Weird logic, no? He even said: “I do not see much of an impact from this loss”…..Yeah, yeah, yeah

– Moreno was backed by MAS (Movimiento al Socialismo) and a small group from Accion Democratica. Coselvi was back by extreme-left party Bandera Roja, the Social Christians of COPEI, Primero Justicia, Accion Democratica and Patria Para Todos, which supports Chavez at the national level.

-Even more interesting, the Chavistas have suffered similar losses in the Universidad del Zulia and Universidad del Tachira. Despite their relevance and significance to national politics, little is known about these results nationally.

-What I find fascinating about these results is the quantitative similarity between them and those of national polls that attempt to probe the popularity of Hugo Chavez.

Chavez does not like polls, these are real votes!!