Archive for June 28th, 2009

Coup in Honduras, military arrests President

June 28, 2009

The Honduran military has arrested the President over the conflict of the removal of the Chiefs of Staff, this is an old fashioned coup, no laws were followed inĀ  the process even if Zelaya was trying to violate the law or not following it.

Will Chavez really intervene?

Note added: Chavez offered the military of Honduras “war” if the Venezuelan Ambassador was hurt or the Embassy violated. The Venezuelan Ambassador was briefly detained, so we may never know. El Heraldo says the presence of Cuban and Venezuelan troops prompted the coup, also says troops turned back at border. Honduran Supreme Court issues strange communique justifying coup, Assembly says Zelaya resigned.

PDVSA modifies terms, bond will trade in US$, but…

June 28, 2009

Well, the Government spent two months thinking about how to structure the Petrobono and came up with the strange animal I described before. Well, it took only two days for the “strangeness” to be removed, the schedule to be modified and turn into a plain vanilla zero coupon.

Basically, the Government removed the prohibition of having the bond trade in the international markets (Or will do it by changing the foreign exchange agreement with the Venezuelan Central Bank) so that people can buy it in Bs. and turn around and sell it in US$. It also changed the schedule because the Government seemed to have forgotten Monday is a financial holiday and it would be essentially impossible for individuals to participate.

Note added: The notes have not been registered in any international market including Euroclear or Cedel so far. Thus, investors will have to have them in Venezuelan custody, these limits, for now, how interesting they are.

I think US$ 3 billion of a PDVSA bond may be a little too much at this time, given international markets. Be careful if you decide to participate. I recommend you sell it right away uf you do, there will be an indigestion of Petrobono 2011 in the international markets as Venzuelans turn around and sell.