Chávez’s “socialism” is extinguishing Venezuela by Veneconomy
In the first 12 days of 2010, it has had to resort to a drastic devaluation of the currency, announced on Friday, January 8, despite its reluctance to take this step for more than four years. And now, on Tuesday, January 12, it has had to make the electricity debacle official with the joint announcement by the Ministry for Electrical Energy and the affiliates of the state-owned National Electricity Corporation of a “special electricity rationing plan that will cover the entire country and will involve suspensions of the service for a maximum of four hours” in each region.
What is even more serious –and important- is not merely that this critical situation in the supply of electricity is the result of more than ten years of lack of investment and planning and of having totally abandoned a coherent, sustained maintenance program, but the fact that the government persists in making last-ditch efforts, refusing to rectify the pernicious way in which it has been handling the country.
On that issue, it is worth mentioning statements given this Monday to El Nacional by José Manuel Aller, a professor at Simón Bolívar University with PhD in electrical engineering, when he maintains that “lack of investment in the national energy system over the past ten years amounts to approximately $20 billion and some 20,000 megawatts.”
Worse still is the fact that, instead of assuming its responsibility in the debacle into which it has plunged the sector, the government insists on passing the buck and saying that the situation is due to the atmospheric phenomenon, El Niño, or to the population’s irresponsible consumption of electricity, ridiculous arguments that hold no water when one sees just one photo of the broken down turbines at Guri or at Planta Centro Power Station or reads the reports warning of the gravity of the situation that different specialists have been submitting for years. Today, the people of Venezuela are paying the price by being condemned to darkness and to a deteriorating standard of living.
The fact of the matter is –now revealed in all its glory and impossible to hide- that the project that Chávez has wanted to implement by force and against the wishes of the vast majority of Venezuelans has only brought failure after failure in all areas of development that are vital for the population.
The Devil's Excrement 
January 13, 2010 at 8:13 pm
Veneconomia article: Guri near collapse. Date: 2003
http://bit.ly/88hlh6
Whose fault is it?
January 13, 2010 at 11:57 am
Miguel:
The graph is of water flow, not levels. I assumed that it was the water flow going through the Turbines, but it sems to be water flow entering the reservoir, so my analysis is not correct. Nevertheless, the graphs look funny, and I did see a corelation to what happened to in the factory were a friend of mine works (Tuy Valley). They had a 4 hour blackouts in September – October every 21 days, then 15, then 7 and then they dissapeared. The trend looked like they would end two 4 hours blackouts per week (as the rationing program).
Managing flow through the Guri Francis turbines is a science by itself, you have to avoid overspeeding and cavitation. The spillways also have erosion, which must be repaired. You can ruin them real quick if you leave then to unexpert hands, even if they are well maintained.
January 13, 2010 at 7:11 am
Once again, to those that really want to understand the problem, in :
opsis.org.ve
look at the November report, in page 33, lower left there is a graph that shows that the Guri dam levels ARE NOT at historical lows and therefore the problem is not water level due to low rain fall. The Caroni river flow is low, but the water level is way above historical levels.
January 13, 2010 at 5:51 am
I hope chavez stay in power for at least 5 more years. If we want to rebuilt venezuela from scratch, like germany and japan after ww2, It must be destroyed completely. Then, we may have a chance.
January 13, 2010 at 2:36 am
moses.
Miguel is trying to explain that when the turbines are non-functional it does matter a hill of beans whether it rains or not, you cannot produce electricity with broken turbines, or carry them on unmaintained powerlines or distribute them through substations looted for copper and never repaired.
Where are the new power stations moses? What did Chief Thief Chavez do with all that money that was supposed to go toward keeping the lights on?
What happens when factories lose power without notice? Their workers already showed up and will want paid even when no work was done. The expenses nationally of this chaotic rationing plan will be horrendous. You can bet that food prices will skyrocket and you can bet that a food rationing plan will be devised.
What will Chavistas say when they are standing in line all day to get a small loaf of day or 2 old bread at high prices at state-run HugoMart, the only stores left? Of course, they’ll also be hoping the power doesn’t go out.
Behold the wonders of 21st century socialism?
January 13, 2010 at 12:47 am
Thanks for your response moctavio. It turns out, due to the poor wording of Arturo’s post, I actually thought he was agreeing with you.
P.s. I wish economics was not so far in my past so that I could fully appreciate your criticisms of Senor Chavez.
January 12, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Daniel, yes, criminals are right now, looking at the rationing plans with great interest, see my new post!
January 12, 2010 at 9:32 pm
I don’t really understand how they can shut down “every other light post” of the street lighting (per El Nacional article). Also, if there are predictable “apagones” in áreas where business (or even homes) rely on security devices (alarms, electric fences, electric gates), wouldn’t this be a huge security problem? I mean, I read the Plan de Racionamiento PDF and it basically told me where to go if I want to break into a store, bank, or house when the alarms were going to be off.. (of course, only between 12am to 4am, per the chart)..
this is insane!
January 12, 2010 at 9:31 pm
Miguel:
Watch the graph in your 7-Jan post called Comportamiento Historico del Rio Caroni. Around Sept – Oct 2009, you can see that the levels oscillate, but are almost flat, and this behavior does not repeat. On that time there were many blackouts, so it seems tha they tried to control the Guri dam level by programming blackouts. But in November it seems that it started to rain, and the level went up, so probably the controls were relaxed… and the level dropped as fast as it went up…. and probably they decided to change strategies (the blackouts in Tachira, Merida and Sucre were becoming too unpopular ?)
January 12, 2010 at 9:15 pm
Arturo: You are so stupid, you did not even understand the cartoon is a joke.
Miguel, please do not delete my comments, after all, I only come to see what stupid thing Arturo has said so that I can blast him away!
January 12, 2010 at 9:09 pm
I’m willing to bet that the next surprise they have in store for us is a raise of gas prices…
January 12, 2010 at 9:03 pm
For Chavez’s sake I hope it does NOT rain in the next few weeks. Maybe he has a backup excuse.
For our sake I hope it pours so all can understand iits not lack of rain.
January 12, 2010 at 8:49 pm
I just remembered a song from Milli Vanilli, it was called “Blame it on the Rain”, that’s all these guys are doing, blaming it on the rain, get a clue guys, rain is just the final nail in the coffin of the current electricity crisis, if the plans to build new plants were developed and proper maintenance of the current facilities were done, even with the current Guri levels we wouldn’t be on this position.
I’ve been reading the boards and it’s saddening to see all the people trying to determine in which “block” is their neighborhood to know when the blackout it’s coming. It is simply criminal that a country with so many resources and so much money due to oil sales during these long 11 years has to endure this bullshit, this devaluation and the ongoing criminality.
I’m just talking on my behalf, but every time I read someone like Arturo around here basically bullshitting in our faces I find that offensive, yes.
January 12, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Arturo, eat a barrel of shut the fuck up, there is evidence in this blog and around the net of the sheer incompetence of the government not only with the maintenance of current generation facilities but also of the total lack of investment of new ones when it was needed.
What you are doing with those comments is simply lying and insulting, so pretty please, with sugar on top, get the fuck out.
January 12, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Because he does not read posts, he only comes conveniently to fill space and never answers questions. I wrote a post a few days ago showing that the level of Guri IS NOT historically at a very low point, so it is not the rain. As Veneconomy tells us is the turbines at Guri. But Arturo comes and says we are biased because we blame it on the Government and it is a rain problem. I will not accept that as an argument if he did not argue in the older post that the levels was high or not. Furthermore, he said he has no respect for me, so why does he even bother to come and make comments: Just to annoy. Most of the time he is off topic too.
January 12, 2010 at 8:31 pm
I don’t get it, why the bashing of Arturo?
January 12, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Arturo, when will you learn how o read and be critical. There are graphs below that PROVE taht is not the case, 8 of the turbines of Guri are out of order. I imagine the devaluation is also due to the lack of rain.
Maybe you can tell us what the Government stupidity is due to? For eleven years there has been no investment in power and for eleven years exports were laugehd at and now we have a different strategy.
How can I say it to you again: Go away! Why do you even bother!
January 12, 2010 at 7:57 pm
Great pic at the strat of the article and a good analysis whose only flaw is that 100% of the blame is laid at the government’s door, even the fact that it did not rtain during the rainy season.
Now with the devaluation and systematic electricity rationing for six months the opposition is sure of winning a majority in the AN elections on September 26th and then defeating Chávez in the December presidential elections of 2012? Would you agree?