The Venezuelan Poor Are the Overwhelming Victims of Homicides

August 27, 2010

In Spanish here

When Alek Boyd sent me the link for the INE report on crime this morning, I wished that I did not have to work, so I could read it and analyze it. It raises a number of questions about definitions, some of which are difficult to understand. For example, I am not sure how they define the number of total homicides, there seems to be two definitions.

But it is very clear from the report, who in Venezuela suffers the most from the rampant crime that Chavismo has refused to fight. You guessed it: The poor!

This is shown in the graph above. The purple line is the percentage of the population that is in each social strata according to the INE (National Institute for Statistics) report. The reddish line indicates the percentage of homicides that occurs in each strata. As you can see, the lowest strata of the population (5) represent 7.52% of the population, but nevertheless are the victims of 27.12% of all homicides. Similarly, those in the next lowest (4) strata, represent 34.02 of the population, but are the victims of 56.52% of all homicides.

In contrast those in levels 2 and 3 are best off, they are 43.04% and 13.7% of the population respectively, but only suffer from 12.4% and 1.91% of the homicides in the country. Those at the top don’t have it so good, they are 1.72% of the population, but are victims of 2.02% of  all homicides. This may indicate that those in what INE classifies as the top strata, either are victims of their own geography or victims of their life style, maybe showing off too much, driving fancy cars and the like.

But clearly, you don’t want to be in strata 4 or 5, which comprise 41.54% of the population, but are victims of 83.64% of all homicides in the country.

You definitely don’t want to be poor in Venezuela, but that is precisely where Chavez’ supporters are.

And who defends them from this?

For those that want to see it per  inhabitants in each strata, of course it is worse for the poorest (However, I think there is an additional normalization factor, the number of homicides is absolute, the population in each strata is not, the conversion factor seems to be 28.8 million/1.82 million (INE population in study)~52 times smaller, that is each number has to be divided by 52, :


25 Responses to “The Venezuelan Poor Are the Overwhelming Victims of Homicides”

  1. […] Devil's Excrement Chavez flips-flop on Hospital funding, but will it help him?The Venezuelan Poor Are the Overwhelming Victims of HomicidesVenezuela Official Numbers: 21,132 homicides, 26,873 kidnappings and 1.9 million robberies in […]

  2. moctavio Says:

    In the INE report, there are 19113 homicides in 2009 used, the higher number arises from the fact that those people that were killed apparently suffered from more than one crime before dying (Don’t quite understand what they are saying)

    If you use 19,113, the question is what is the total population of the country. INE has a projection of 28.8 million and the sample is 1.82 million in size. Using these numbers 19,113/28.8 million gives you 66 homicides per 100,000 and the numbers above in the chart.

    Sorry, I had an error in the chart, the new one has been posted.

  3. Gringo Says:

    According to Wikipedia, Venezuela’s death rate is 5.1/ 1000, which would be 510 /100,000. This figure may not be up-to-date. If the homicide rate for Venezuela is ~73/100,000, this means that nearly 15% of those who die in Venezuela do so from homicide.

    I do not have Strata 5/E death rates, so I am not going to put down any estimates. Consider these numbers, which are fairly well documented .
    Strata 5/E homicide rate: ~ 270/100,000
    Venezuela death rate: ~ 510/100,000

    Whatever the percentage, a VERY high percentage of the deaths from Strata 5/E come from homicide.

  4. Gordo Says:

    In Columbia, they tell me that it is perfectly safe if you avoid certain neighborhoods.

  5. Gringo Says:

    Francisco Toro:
    3.7 per 100 murder rate for the Stratum E would mean 3,700 per murders per 100,000, which I’m guessing is one order of magnitude too many. (you’d have 37,000 murders for every 1 million class E people!)

    See my above equation. The 3.7 figure for Strata E [5] is the ratio of the % of murders in Strata E divided by the % of the population in Strata E. That is how the murder rate in a given strata compares to the overall murder rate. You then multiply the overall murder rate by 3.7 (I and Amieres got 3.6): 75X 3.7.

    Amieres: While the murder rate has nearly quadrupled in eleven years, my guess is that Strata E/5 murder rate in 1998 was still ~3.6 [or Quico’s 3.7] times the overall murder rate. But a guess.

  6. Gringo Says:

    I got the same result that Amieres got, simply by dividing [%murders in strata A]/[% population in strata A] X 75.

  7. amieres Says:

    It would be interesting to compare this figures with the equivalent pre-Chavez.

  8. loroferoz Says:

    Nobody defends them.

    I will not make any snide comments. People in the D and E “strata” are quite screwed and will only be screwed further with time. Not only from crime, but from unemployment and inflation and scarcity.

    I can only suppose that they know they are screwed for good; being the prey of criminals, corrupt police and govt. armed groups alike. And of the Army if it comes to blows. Thus their apathy. Until the situation becomes untenable even for them, which means painful.

    In fact, I have followed the general mood in the A, B and C “strata” of waiting to see if they actually get desperate. Not merely outraged like in 1989. Honest to goodness desperate and ready to face the guns.

    Cruel? We told it like it is years ago, warned whoever would listen about what would happen, shouted ourselves hoarse, signed and got blacklisted, went on strike and got fired. We were shown the door out of Venezuela.

  9. Fidel's non-evil twin Says:

    Clearly, all this is the result of the government’s idea of reducing inequality in the society: slaughter the extremely rich and the extremely poor and in 20 years everyone will be equal.

    But seriously, if the MUD doesn’t plaster the numbers for strata 4 and 5 all over Venezuelan barrios (along with a pic of Hyena Izarra), I’ll personally walk to Caracas and punch someone in the face.

  10. island canuck Says:

    “I think Middle Class are more carefull because read news, and have more realistic view of the reality of the country.”

    Yeah, and they don’t live between the gangs shooting at each other every day.

  11. A_Antonio Says:

    The important thing is conlusions do not change.

    I think Middle Class are more carefull because read news, and have more realistic view of the reality of the country.

  12. A_Antonio Says:

    With the proper data should easy to verify:

    (Total killings per year in strata) / (Total population of strata) x 100.000 or x 100; as you like.

  13. amieres Says:

    I got different results based on a total rate of 75 homicides per 100,000:

    Strata 1 => 88
    Strata 2 => 10
    Strata 3 => 22
    Strata 4 => 125
    Strata 5 => 270

  14. Thanks for the new graph…but you should check that you have the decimal point in the wrong place. A 3.7 per 100 murder rate for the Stratum E would mean 3,700 per murders per 100,000, which I’m guessing is one order of magnitude too many. (you’d have 37,000 murders for every 1 million class E people!)

    I guess you mean 370 per 100,000, which is already astronomical…

  15. amieres Says:

    Miguel you should use homicides by 100,000 which is the generally accepted metric.

    We’ve been reading that Venezuela has a rate of ~75 homicides per 100,000 per year.
    According to the graph
    Strata 5 has ~350 (not 3500),
    strata 4 has ~175
    strata 1 has ~125.

  16. amieres Says:

    “Con Chávez muere el pueblo!”

  17. Deanna Says:

    Chavez did promise that he would eliminate poverty in Venezuela by 2020–by having all the poor people killed off by the rampant violence in the country!!!!

  18. A_Antonio Says:

    MO, Thanks for the murders per 100 habitants and per strata.

    As you can guest, for strata 4 and 5, the quantities of murders provably means that, every year, somebody of their family, closer or friend died.

    That´s why their face of resignation and insensibility of these people when one of the relatives are killed, simple is too much violence every year, is their psychological defense mechanism

  19. moctavio Says:

    There you have it, easy to do, of course those in Level 5 are worst, they had almost 4 times their percentage of the population.

    Yes, definitions of strata are quite different, in fact, the INE report is very fuzzy about how they define it, they say the variables, but not the weights.

  20. Francisco Toro Says:

    BTW – slightly OT rant here – did you know that there is no single, agreed upon definition of Stratum A, B, C, D and E in Venezuela!!?

    It’s bizarre. EVERYBODY segments the population into five segments, and everybody calls those segments A, B, C, D and E… but no two organizations define the segments the same way!

    So when you see Datanalisis talking about “C-segment” they’re using one definition, but when INE uses the same phrase they’re talking about a different group of people defined differently, and CENDAS, IVAD, C21, etc. each have their own definition!

    I find this whole thing bizarre. Especially weird is that none of these organizations ever seem to admit, publicly, that they don’t have a comparable definition of the segments. It would be one thing is they included a transparent caveat about this, and a forthright description of their own methodology – which, in fairness, this INE report does do – but the screwed up thing is that usually they just talk about the segments as though “everybody already knew what each segment is” when, in fact, they don’t.

    Screwed up!

  21. Francisco Toro Says:

    I’m with A_Antonio – we need murder rates per stratum.

  22. JulioR Says:

    If Chavez finds out about this, he will simply balance the ratios by suggesting the killing of more middle class and rich Venezuelans.

    Chavez is the devil, and he has captured the minds of too many poor people so they cannot understand what Chavez is doing.

  23. concerned Says:

    Unfortunately, the eyes opened in their last seconds on earth to the failures of the revolution were in that moment closed for good along with their ability to vote against it. It is now up to the friends and families of the victims to try to make a difference.

  24. A_Antonio Says:

    I do not have time to analyze, but you should also try data with another view:
    For example:
    For every 100 persons of strata 1 were killed “X”
    For every 100 persons of strata 2 were killed “y”
    And so on…
    What will be the results? Provably same conclusion.

  25. metodex Says:

    Im amazed.Pretty good graph! well as i have said before,i believe that people don’t give a darn as long as they support the robolution.Its almost like a religion,they follow it without questioning veracity of the statements and promises,or the intentions of the leaders. i do believe however that those suffering from robbery and murders, will actually make a difference in voting.This i do believe. Well the maximus leader sent the NG to the caracas subway and did some decent job i believe,but now theyre acting like it actually makes a difference,like they solved everyone’s problem. How many people have to die to actually make people open their eyes and see the truth about the so called “socialism of the 21st century”.

    By the way,it took him some time to figure out what a century was.He thought us the human species have been around for 2000 years. How can somebody get to be president of a whole potentially powerful country without proper knowledge of anything, hell, he hadn’t even read a Marx book when he said he was a socialist.

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