A Bifurcation In The Path Of The Venezuelan Future…

October 3, 2012

Two events prove that Venezuela faces a bifurcating choice on Sunday. Two separate events, one at the top and one at the bottom of the political food chain, which simply show the world that Chavismo not only has lost all scruples, but it aims to control the daily lives of all Venezuelans if it is allowed to spend six more years in power.

The first one, was the statement made by the Minister of Defense General Rangel Silva that Capriles’ statement that he will name an active General as his Minister of Defense only aims to destabilize the Venezuelan Armed Forces. Rangel Silva followed this up by saying that no active General would accept the post with Capriles, because the opposition candidate aims to “desarticulate” the Venezuelan Armed Forces. Later the General, when asked if it was appropriate for him to criticize a candidate, answered that this somehow is part of the “new democracy” and that he was forced to respond because of the “disdain” shown by candidate Capriles towards the Armed Forces.

Coming from the same man, declared a drug kingpin by the DEA,  who once said that he would never recognize a Commander in Chief other than Hugo Chavez while he was Minister of Defense and coming so close to the election, the General’s words are not only anti democratic and insulting to anyone’s intelligence but show the dangers ahead of continuing for another six years under the Chavez autocracy.

Fortunately, the Ministers message shows that Capriles statement had the desired effect: It tells Rangel Silva, who has little influence on most high ranking military and commands no loyalties beyond the cronies that surround him, that he may find internal resistance within the military should he decide to join any attempt not to recognize Sunday’s results should Capriles be the winner. And it shows the Minister is no democrat when he tries to interfere with Capriles’ right to say who will accompany him, should he win the Presidency.

And if this shows how putrid Venezuela’s Chavista democracy is at the top, the same goes for freedom at the bottom of the Chavista food chain with the decision to shut down all Government offices tomorrow, so that Government workers can “accompany and support” President Chavez, in the closing rally of his campaign. But these civil servants will have to show up for work, so that their bosses can check their presence and take them to Chavez’ rally under the threat that if they do not show up on Thursday or attempt to leave the rally, this could endanger their career and /or originate a demotion or a transfe to a job in the Interior, rather than Caracas. This form of political harassment also shows how the freedom and the rights of Venezuelans would be increasingly limited should Chavez win on Sunday.

It is indeed a bifurcation in our path to a better future. A Chavez victory would lead to further limitations to freedom at the top and at the bottom, while a Capriles victory will lead to more plurality and democracy. Tomorrow, I will give you my final take on what I think will happen and I certainly hope Venezuelans choose the path of a more open society.

Venezuelans deserve better.

48 Responses to “A Bifurcation In The Path Of The Venezuelan Future…”

  1. CharlesC Says:

    “Venezuelans deserve better.”
    Maybe Venezuelans should visit Japan and learn a few things from the Japanese…

  2. Dirichlet Says:

    moctavio, the data point you were waiting for is out.


  3. claco Says:

    Grandpa tells you a story, Chavez even ill worked by twitter from
    his bed. Due to the rain you will stay in bed with a flew, sick voters.

  4. ErneX Says:

    Have you seen Marciano/JVR?

    • CharlesC Says:

      Is everyone borracho there? I think so, esp. Rangel. Poor Jose, he’s
      a sick freak. “Chavez works for the people” and “Socialismo blah blah
      blah. Rangel acted like he is whipping a tired horse and he is tired too..
      One thing about Rangel -he makes Chavez look good beside him-ha.

  5. ErneX Says:

    Well, I think Chavez act wasn’t as good as they planned, Globovisión ran split screen with VTV and their own images, the Bolivar street wasn’t full as they promised.

    It was also raining and Chavez speech wasn’t particularly exciting, he only spoke for about 30 mins and that was it.

  6. Firepigette Says:

    Plurality can only flourish in a county where most people can respect differing opinions with a certain equanimity.if folks in Venezuela have learned this lesson we will be back to democracy as a logical consequence.

  7. moctavio Says:

    I will blog all day until a result is known, which I think may take until the wee hours of the morning on Monday. I am in Caracas, will try to take picturesduring the day.

  8. VJ Says:

    Are you planning to blog on 7-O ?
    For that date, specially in the evening, we must have reliable information on what´s going on with the results.
    Please comment.

  9. island canuck Says:

    Reports on-line indicate that 18,000 buses have been contracted by PDVSA, SENIAT & CANTV among others to bring around 900,000 people to CCS.

    Each bus supposedly costs Bs15.000 & each participant is promised Bs.600 – all from government funds which is totally illegal.

    Who do they think they are kidding? If they need to do this to compete with HCR then they have already lost.

    Watch Cojedes & Apure today, Chavista states, to see the turnouts for Capriles & get an idea of how big the win will be on Sunday.

    The evening appearance will be in Barquisimeto (Lara), a pro Capriles state and will probably match Maracaibo in turnout.

    Hay un camino!

    • Ronaldo Says:

      Chavez is in Caracas but 1. will he make an appearance 2. will his drugs take a lot out of him, 3. will his speech be scripted, 4. who is going to feed all these people, 5. where will the toilets be located, and 5. can all the buses make it through Caracas traffic? The local food markets can hardly feed the neighborhood and food brought in from the docks is most likely rotted. How much will all the red shirts and hats cost? There is only a 20% chance of rain, but the humidity will be above 75%. Will beer be readily available? One broken down bus or accident (choque, I believe in Venezuelan) could stop the whole show. PDVSA employees would not complain as long as they got paid. How do you fit 18.000 buses into Caracas? Chavez couldn’t mobilize two military units to the Columbian border because of Caracas traffic; how will he get 18.000 buses going.

      Somethings are certain today.
      1 Chavez will call Capriles names and then lie about him.
      2. This event will give a first hand demonstration of the Chavez governments failure to organize and accomplish anything.

      • ErneX Says:

        I think they’ll succeed at their show today, but I say let them have their last show.

        I believe them when they say it’s going to be massive, they have been preparing for this for long. We know how they are pulling this off, so let’s just let them have it.

        • CharlesC Says:

          No, this is so wrong on so many levels. The international press should point out this to the world. This is not democracy.NOT DEMOCRACY:>

  10. Bruni Says:

    Miguel, the bifurcation path has always been there and yet, people voted again and again for Chávez.

    One may accept (although I still do not understand) that people wanted a change in 1998…but 2006?

    The 2006 Chávez government was a ugly as today, maybe even worse because there was no dissenting voice in the National Assembly. The only difference is that he had not closed RCTV…yet people voted massively for him.

    This time around, the guy is sick, he has not been able to campaign and STILL, we are wondering if Capriles momentum would be enough. It means that roughly, 50% of venezuelans still support this regime…after 14 years!

    How can that be?

    There has been a clear bifurcation path from day one of this long and sad story for the country and systematically people have refused to take the right one. Even when we have won in the past: the Reforma, the National Assembly, it has been just by a few percentages and because chavistas stayed home.

    There must be an explanation that goes beyond my understanding.

    Someone out there that voted for Chávez in 2006, please explain.

    • GotaDeAcido Says:

      Ignorance, indifference, and just plain stupidity. It happens that the vote of an educated person or a well informed and knowing worker who is fed up with the bad situation is worth the same in the ballot that some mentally-iliterate fanatic.

    • moctavio Says:

      Bruni: This is the final bifurcation, if Chavismo stays Venezuela will plunge into a place with no freedom and whatever is left of the private sector will be destroyed. The task even if Capriles wins is gargantuan, in six years, it will be quite impossible.

      • megaescualidus Says:


        Correct me if I’m wrong. In the hypothetical case Chavez dies in say, 1 year from now, would’t they have to go to new elections soon after? Unless they change the constitution ahead should that scenario materialize.

        • moctavio Says:

          That is correct, there would be new elections. However, I worry about the unity factor if Capriles loses.

        • VJ Says:

          You just said it: “Unless they change the constitution ahead should that scenario materialize.”
          So in case of a Chavez´s victory, the chavizmo will call a referendum to amend the constitution to be held along with the governors election in december.

      • Firepigette Says:

        Moctavio, I disagree, nothing is final

        • moctavio Says:

          Of course, but I will not see a changed Venezuela in my lifetime and it may take generations to change things.

          • CharlesC Says:

            That is the depressing thought I came to accept recently.
            Now, I fear if Chavez loses, will he continue even more vigorously
            for next 3 months to tear Venezuela apart.He can get angry and if not
            controlled do many more things to hurt Venezuela-esp. the business class
            for example…

      • Ira Says:

        Sure, Capriles won’t be able to fix everything in 6 years, but I think the measures he’ll take will be so positive, immediate and visible that their impact will be magnified many-fold.

        In other words, things are such a mess now that simply fixing the electrical grid will make him a hero.

        I’m no engineer, but I’m pretty sure that this is not a gargantuan task.

    • guest Says:

      “There must be an explanation that goes beyond my understanding. ”

      Los ladrones tambien votan, mi querida Bruni.

      In Venezuela, there has always been a group of people, much larger than anyone cares to admit, who want nothing to do with hard work. They want everything to be accomplished with the absolute minimal effort. They’re allergic to their own swat. The want to pass the test at school without ever having to study. They want to make a lot of money without ever having to wake up before noon. They think working is for idiots.

      We used to call them Adecos and now we call them chavistas.

      And the problem with Venezuela is not that it has a Chavez, but that it has too many of the kind of people who would keep someone like Chavez on power just so they can steal, kidnap, rape, and do everything they want to do the easy way without having to work a single second of their lives.

      To be clear, I’m not talking about poor people here. Poor people are the ones who get robbed and murdered by the chavistas. The ones who suffer at the hospital because a chavista stole all the medicines to resell them in Colombia. The ones who get threatened by the local thug into voting for Chavez or suffer the consequences.

  11. ErneX Says:

    Pretty much. We are going to witness today a huge rally today on Caracas paid illegally with public funds and resources from all over the country.

    I’m wondering if Capriles is going to announce the VP name today on Barquisimeto.

  12. geronl Says:

    I would never use the word “bifurcation” in polite company. :p

    • Ira Says:

      I would never use it because I never HEARD it before–and I was a copy editor for many years.

      I guess my audience was always a little low brow.

  13. jau Says:

    Stop teasing Miguel, give us your final take!

  14. m_astera Says:

    Nicely done, Miguel. 5 stars.

    And a truly brilliant move by Capriles.

  15. NicaCat56 Says:

    Miguel, when you say ““desarticulate”, I think that you might want to say “breaking up”, or “disbanding”, maybe even “deregulate”. Saludos.

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