(How I felt Monday morning)
And so we lost…
An effective and efficient operative to bring out the vote, led to the highest turnout of recent elections and a surprisingly large Chávez win. But turnout was not the whole story, even if it was very significant and Chavismo reverted the trend that opposition voters have less abstention than Chavista voters.
The story is told by the facts: Capriles won the large cities, but lost the states where they were located, proving again that the rural vote is hard to get for the opposition. And despite the blackouts, the inflation, the lack of delivery and Chávez’ cancer, the people were still willing to risk another term with Hugo. Capriles did a valiant effort, but in so many of those rural areas, the media is tightly controlled by the Government, making it difficult to turn around the Government’s message that Capriles is a right wing Dictator in the making. And a majunche!
And the abuse of power was definitely a factor. Cháez had unlimited resources, plus a myriad dirty tricks up his sleeve, from null votes, to shutting down the Miami consulate, to the Unidad Democratica change in candidate, every bit counted, even if it looks today that all of the abuses were largely unnecessary.
Chávez grew his votes from 2006 8%, while the opposition managed a 33% gain. All of this despite a 66% increase in the price of oil during the intervening six years. For all the PSF talk about improving conditions, the truth is that the improvements in the standard of living of the poor since 2006 can barely be seen in monetary terms, despite the growth in the Government’s wealth. And if marginal increases in purchasing power were meager, infrastructure, crime and health care deteriorated.
But Chávez gives hope. Chávez enchants people. Chávez makes symbols more important than realities. I guess if you have not lived in the squalor most people live in in Venezuela, this is all hard to understand. I certainly don’t, I just know that this is not the way out of the problems. An economic adjustment will come sooner rather than later. Maybe oil will go to $200 a barrel and save the day once again for Mr. Chávez. But all of the distortions are in place. Ready to explode. This is the new oil windfall economics for countries with irresponsible Governments. Look at Iran’s economy, it gives you economic deja vu how similar things are there and here. Both will blow up, some day…
And those that are looking now for Chávez’ demise, should just wait a week or two. With the mandate obtained in the Presidential election, Chávez is likely to seek a Constitutional amendment such that the Vice-President becomes the President in the first four years after Jan. 10th. 2013, changing the current Constitution, which requires an immediate general election for President. Maybe easier, Chávez will just change the article about blood relations, so that his brother can become VP and the Chávez dynasty will have been born.
A note on pollsters. They did a terrible job. the worst since I began following some of them. I can’t buy a prediction on the difference that was correct, when the undecided was one and a half times that difference. Consultores 21 really blew it this time, for the first time since I have been following them. Datos was doing a good job until its last flash report in which the trend had reversed. In some sense to me, Varianzas was the best pollster, saying Chávez would win by 2%, with 2% undecided.
Now comes the tough part, holding the MUD together. They hopefully will stick together until December for the election of Governors. Capriles did a magnificent job, improved his speech and captured the imagination of 45% of the Venezuelan population. But it was not enough. We now have the elections for Governors in early December and the referendum on the same day could be the biggest threat to a good performance by the opposition. Capriles shoudl not even think about running for Miranda, he shoudl be above the fray for now, he is the leader of the opposition. It is clear that Chavistas vote for Chávez the idol, not for complex ideas or regional PSUV candidates. The referendum will be all about the idol and he could take the Governors to victory on his coattails.
I hope I am wrong.
The Devil's Excrement 
October 11, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Accepting the results as legitimate will mean that democracy in Venezuela really is dead.
October 11, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Absolutely. I agree 100%. Except democracy has been dead how long in VZ?
October 17, 2012 at 11:18 am
CharlesC,
Fear is exactly what won elections.This is usually the case in a dictatorship, under which is an act of absurdity- for want of a better word- to believe in fair and square elections.
What we are now seeing is many people believing that discussing this with honesty is almost showing an un-patriotic attitude, so far that Chavez has extended his viewpoint.Lastima !
October 11, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Uribe added that “the rule of law is violated daily in Venezuela”.”Chavez has created by steps a Cuban-style dictatorship and has protected Colombian terrorists,” said Uribe, who added that “every day against the Chávez” he fought during his presidency (2002-2010) and that his opposition to the President will continue.The exgobernante explained that Chavez “has been a declared an accomplice of terrorists”
Mr. Uribe has a new book.
http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/no-hay-causa-perdida-alvaro-uribe-velez/1110804796?ean=9781101591048
October 11, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Actually, I have been waiting for someone to highlight what I am about to say.
Since noone really focused on this, I will do it now.
F-E-A-R is what won the election for Chavez (and moving large numbers of people to vote. The movement of how manythousands of people for the rally-from PDVSA last week was just a preamble to 70)
Everybody knows chavistas have their circles everywhere and they put the word out that you will lose your job if you do not vote for Chavez.
And, now they have already started punishing people who did not vote for Chavez. By the way, this should be SHOULD BE documented by the press
and bloggers.
But, I think some polling should be done to see how many people live in fear of
Chavez. I think the answer can be found and I think it is in the millions and that explains the difference in voting results more than any other single issue…
October 11, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Perhaps they have made up their mind: López will be the next candidate?
October 11, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Or Perez?
October 11, 2012 at 3:40 pm
no way, this is a move to have Capriles have money. I dont like it.
October 11, 2012 at 9:51 am
Vamos, osito, que la depre no le conviene a naiden.
October 11, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Ay syd, ya estoy robándome esta foto… es perfecta.
October 11, 2012 at 9:46 am
I share the pain Miguel. We are losing to “populism.” The culture of subsidies and entitlements is highly enrooted in the Venezuelan culture. Almost everyone of any socio-economic level expects the Government to pay the bill. This was true of Carlos Andres Perez I, Jaime Lusinchi and Caldera until the price of the barrel of oil hit $8 in 1998. That was when Chavez was elected with wide support from poor and rich as the savior. When I say support I mean wealthy Venezuelans that generously funded Chavez’s campaign with the expectation of financial gain and influence. So Chavez is willing to pay for everything even outside Venezuela and regardless of where the money comes from including incurring in a high debt for the country.
I see a lot of Venezuelans in the US very happy with CADIVI dollars (and it was the same with RECADI before that) and with the same attitude “it is very cheap give me two.” The dilemma that Venezuelans face is why give up short term gains (Chavez) for long term stability (Capriles). This is a dilemma that has a clear solution for low income families, they go for the short term gain.
If you review the history of most Latin American countries, they have all been down this path of populism and dictatorships. In most cases, most countries have gone through long periods of political and economic instability. Chile, Brazil and Argentina are good examples of that. I would say that Venezuela was not able to skip that path. In my opinion, last Sunday’s election is just a symptom of a deeper and complex problem of addiction to subsidies and political shortcuts.
As for Capriles, he should run for Miranda. Politically he needs to stay alive, in the limelight and somehow protected. Otherwise, Chavistas are going to have a feast with him in the open politicak arena.
I need to say “kudos to Miguel.” You have done a great job in keeping us informed, of providing timely data and proper analysis. From me a big thanks.
Paul
October 11, 2012 at 9:51 am
“As for Capriles, he should run for Miranda. Politically he needs to stay alive, in the limelight and somehow protected. Otherwise, Chavistas are going to have a feast with him in the open politicak arena.”
agree, especially with the limelight and the protection. The private sector is out of the question, I think. HCR defines himself as a politician, period.
October 11, 2012 at 5:14 pm
I see a lot of Venezuelans in the US very happy with CADIVI dollars (and it was the same with RECADI before that) and with the same attitude “it is very cheap give me two.” The dilemma that Venezuelans face is why give up short term gains (Chavez) for long term stability (Capriles). This is a dilemma that has a clear solution for low income families, they go for the short term gain.
^^^^^^^ That! That!
October 11, 2012 at 9:24 am
“Capriles has work experience in the public sector, at SENIAT, Venezuela’s revenue service, as well as the private sector, at law firms Nevett & Mezquita Abogados and Hoet, Peláez, Castillo & Duque”
Fernando -check Wikipedia.
“never worked in the privat sector”
October 11, 2012 at 10:13 am
you got me! but – how old was he when he was elected as deputy back in 1998? arround 26? I’m not sure but i believe beeing parlamentarian in Venezuela is a full tima job. So please tell me more how much worke experience he has in the privat sector.
PS. I don’t see experience at SENIAT as an asset.
October 11, 2012 at 3:54 am
Just a short coment about the debate if Capriles should or shouldn’t run for the gobernation of Miranda:
He is a full time professional politician who never worked in the privat sector. that’s one of the week points of capriles. If he don’t get a position in the public administration, he will be in fact unemployed and loss power and influence. It’s possible to have a regional position like governer and to lead the national debatte. There are lots of examples in western europe.
October 11, 2012 at 3:39 pm
I totall agree to that. Further, the position of a governor includes also the possibility to show improvements/positive developments in his own state – and he can refer to some things already. Even within the limited frame of a single state, with a federal government of a very different kind, he has the opportunity to develop and show a different model, and to bring it up again and again effectively, referring to it on the public agenda.
Not having a seat in the parliament is maybe sometimes a disadvantage, but being in duty, having real possibilities to govern and show successes, is more important.
October 11, 2012 at 2:53 am
Primero Justicia needs to enrol more people who are not too white UCAB law alumni born in Caracas.
They need to go places and for that they need training in rhetoric and LAST BUT NOT LEAST in local HISTORY, local ETHNICITY, local toponymy, local economics.
Look at this map of Germany I used in June:
The red crosses show where family minister Schröder, a woman who was very pregnant at that time (gave birth around July or August, I think) went.
The green crosses show where one of the top 5 leaders of the Green party went in the same period.
You could get similar activity for the top 10 people in each of the 5 main parties in Germany. This year was not election year.
I know: it is much easier to travel through Germany. You, specially if you are a politician, can go to first class in the train, drink a capuccino, read the news, work on your laptop and have Internet access and talk to your assistant and not need several bodyguards.
Still, perhaps there is a compromise?
One thing is for sure: we need a system whereby the MUD politicians get rhetorical training in a systematic way.
And those from Caracas specially: they need lessons about the rest of the country, quite seriously, they need them.
Capriles has done an extraordinary job.
I am so happy I voted for him.
But this is not about Capriles. This is about a whole movement.
October 11, 2012 at 8:48 am
I like your first sentence. And it’s not only about winning elections. It’s the main problem of the venezuelan party system since 1958.
October 11, 2012 at 9:48 am
“And those from Caracas specially: they need lessons about the rest of the country, quite seriously, they need them.”
Agree, but not just caraqueños. The whole country needs to learn more about its various regions, landscapes, rivers, cities, towns, villages, people, history. And not necessarily in that order. The field trips should start by late grade school.
October 11, 2012 at 10:22 am
Bueno, los otros, porque los valencianos no. Sinceramente, nosotros los valencianos queríamos seguir siendo parte del Imperio.
Esas vainas de independencia salieron de Caracas. A Toro lo detuvimos en Mariara pero Miranda siguió ladillando y miren dónde paró la vaina.
October 11, 2012 at 2:10 am
Is it a fact that Chavez lost the cities but won in the rural regions? I know actually a few rural lower class people (not a representative amount of course) and I can’t think of one who still supports Chavez. I think that the more isolated the people, the less they actually care about the pseudo intelectual, brain washing, socialistic better world theorys of Chavez. The only thing they care is if ther life has improved the past couple of years.
I think the MUD should play the role of a think tank of the oposition. They did a good job and had a good strategy for this elections but poor human and financal resources. I also think that they didn’t properly analysed the sociological reality of Venezuela. They are still wey to elitist. It’s not enough to visit from time to time the barrios and to try to talk like the popular clases, they need to engage people from the lower social clases and put them into leeding positions. That’s the democratic statement the people of Venezuela wish to see. As I said yesterday to a friend: The oposition needs also a bus driver (like Maduro)! I think Capriles should still play the role of the leader of the oposition.
October 10, 2012 at 11:01 pm
En Octubre 9, 2012, Chávez supera los 8 millones de votos.
El presidente Hugo Chávez superó la barrera de los ocho millones de votos. Con el escrutinio de 38.066 mesas (96,7%) alcanzó la cifra de 8.044.106 sufragios válidos, lo que equivale a 55,11% de los ciudadanos que participaron en la elección presidencial.
Por su parte, el aspirante de oposición, Henrique Capriles Radonski obtiene 6.461.612 votos válidos, lo que equivale a 44,27% de los electores que sufragaron el domingo.
Este conteo aún es parcial, porque faltan por totalizarse 952 mesas en Venezuela y los votos emitidos en el exterior, concretamente en 127 misiones diplomáticas.
[Ver Chávez supera los 8 millones de votos El Universal, Martes 9 de octubre de 2012, 12:00 AM]
Si estas 38.066 mesas recibieron 14,505,718 votos válidos, a razón de unos 381 votos por mesa, en promedio, tuvieron que recibirlos a razón de casi 31,8 votos por hora; o sea, a unos 2 minutos por voto durante 12 horas, sostenido en cada mesa!
Y esto es sin considerar los votos nulos, que también toman su tiempo cada uno.
On October 9, 2012, Reelected President Chávez obtains over eight million votes.
Venezuelan reelected President Hugo Chávez surpassed the eight million vote threshold. Upon review and counting of ballots in 38,066 polling stations (96.7%), the reelected president gained 8,044,106 valid votes totaling 55.11% of the electorate.
For his part, challenger Henrique Capriles Radonski obtained 6,461,612 (44.27%).
The final figures are yet to come. Counting is still pending in another 952 polling stations in Venezuela and 127 abroad.
[See Chávez supera los 8 millones de votos El Universal, Martes 9 de octubre de 2012, 12:00 AM]
If these 38,066 poling stations received 14.505.718 valid votes, at a rate of 381 votes each, in average, they had to receive them a rate of almost 31.8 votes per hour; that is, some 2 minutes per vote during 12 hours, sustained at each station!
And this does not consider the null votes, each taking some time also.
October 11, 2012 at 6:31 pm
In my table, we were voting faster than one person per minute, probably two per minute. Basically, while one person was handing in the cedula, another was voting and the third was putting the ink on, so two minutes does not sound far fetched on average.
October 11, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Thanks, Miguel,
Are you saying that it took some 30 seconds from the time you occupied the voting machine to the time the same machine was occupied again? And that this was sustained for 13 hours?
If this is so, then yes, 1 vote per minute is an acceptable average.
October 11, 2012 at 7:02 pm
It took me less than a minute to go around and when I went in, there were two people going around the horseshoe.
October 11, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Thanks, again.
I rest my case at http://www.oarval.org/avalencia/VLinken.htm#2012-10-07
October 11, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Miguel, you have the last word in my page, linked above.
October 10, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Estimado Miguel,
Último comentario sobre el seudo-evento del domingo……al señor proclamado hoy solo lo vemos fuera del puesto cuando salga arrastrado (por los pies adelante) o embaulado de Miraflores….
Buenas noches y espero que el último que salga que apague la luz!!!
October 10, 2012 at 9:58 pm
QUOTE. “Wanley Says:
October 9, 2012 at 12:20 pm
The ONLY good thing about the reelection is that the economic time bomb will explode on his watch……
…..
…..
…..”
Miguel, I might be wrong but after reading your blog for a while (maybe since inception) it seems that this is one of the first observations that intelligent readers make (I probably made the same observation 3-4times…..oops!!). Any thoughts why are we still going around in loops?
BTW….I made a pledge to my intellect that I would never make this sound argument again!!!!
Best and love to hear your analytical thoughts.
October 10, 2012 at 8:48 pm
recuerdo completico como muchos de los hipócritas q ahora le hacen barra a capriles para que se lance de nuevo a la gobernación de miranda, criticaban que pablo perez hiciera lo mismo en el zulia, luego de perder las primarias! JA!
October 10, 2012 at 8:17 pm
There is an interesting article about voting machines: http://www.eecs.umich.edu/eecs/about/EECSNews/EECSNews12.pdf
I have no idea if this applies to the machines used in Vzla…
October 10, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Jaua has the most favorable rating in the party next to Chavez by almost double. Im still not so sure Chavez will push for a successor. Upon his death Maduro could become president for quite a while with Silva and Cabello sharing power behind the scenes while they all plot an election/legitimacy strategy during the state of emergency. This may avoid problems in the short term and I am not sure Chavez’s ego will even allow him to name a successor.
October 10, 2012 at 7:54 pm
I think Capriles is smart to run as governor, it’s dirty, but it’s politics. He needs to keep campaigning and keep building his base. If he falls into obscurity like Al Gore did he won’t have any political influence in the future.
As far as a referendum, the bad thing about it is that if they tried it, then it would have to be retroactive for it to be meaningful (ie, to avoid a second election after Chavez’ death). And that’s just dirty. If that happens it’ll be nasty.
October 10, 2012 at 8:07 pm
I dont buy it, his biggest credential was being elected in a primary. He has to respect that process or it is not democratic.
October 10, 2012 at 8:50 pm
JC, when I voted for Ocariz in the primaries I do not remember reading a disclaimer reading that he was going to be the candidate for Miranda only if Chavez won. What kind of precedent is Capriles setting here by just taking his place to remain relevant? He just lost my vote. I was ready to work with in and to follow his leadership as the leader of an united opposition for years to come.
October 11, 2012 at 2:10 pm
I don’t like this precedent either, but i think it was also caused by the Caldera video and the defection of Ojeda, and not only the presidential results.
curious about what Enrique Mendoza thinks about it.
October 11, 2012 at 10:11 am
I think that MUD as a whole needs to get a permanent campaign underway, by holding a primary every year for their leader and presidential candidate, should Chavez become incapacitated. The candidates should never have more than two mandates, to ensure they’re contrasted heavily from Hugo and presidency for life.
It’s not hard to see that this is the highest point of Chavizmo. The comming economic pain will see to that.
October 10, 2012 at 7:37 pm
today was announced that Nicolas Maduro will be the new Vicepresident.
If I remember correctly, many moons ago this blogger said to look for signs of health deterioration when Maduro would get to be VP
October 10, 2012 at 7:41 pm
I did, I just wonder if the reason is that Jaua needs to run against Capriles. In polls , Jaua was the best candidate to replace Chavez because he tends to be less confrontational. Still digesting. Lets wait to see if they announce a referendum or not.
October 11, 2012 at 1:00 am
Verrrrrrga, ‘less confrontational’…na guará, carajo…si esa vaina es menos beligerante, quiero ver al buscapleitos.
October 10, 2012 at 7:20 pm
I think that probably the research study done and published by statistics experts from Austria end of september, could be interesting for all who still feel they need to get things straight concerning the election results. Dealing with election results, this study develops a parametric model “quantifying the extent to which fraudulent mechanisms are present”.
A short citation of abstract of their scientific article, published on pnas.org: “National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large numbers of electoral districts and vote according to their preferences. The large number of samples implies statistical consequences for the polling results, which can be used to identify election irregularities. Using a suitable data representation, we find that vote distributions of elections with alleged fraud show a kurtosis substantially exceeding the kurtosis of normal elections, depending on the level of data aggregation. As an example, we show that reported irregularities in recent Russian elections are, indeed, well-explained by systematic ballot stuffing. We develop a parametric model quantifying the extent to which fraudulent mechanisms are present. We formulate a parametric test detecting these statistical properties in election results. Remarkably, this technique produces robust outcomes with respect to the resolution of the data and therefore, allows for cross-country comparisons. ”
Here is the complete abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/09/20/1210722109.abstract
And since it is open source, here is their article, published september 24th 2012: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/09/20/1210722109.full.pdf+html?with-ds=yes
If necessary, maybe it can help to extinguish doubts about the election results? (Or, hopefully not, confirm them… – I say “hopefully not confirm” because having a true result, and to be able to trust it, is more important than seeing the result that one maybe likes.)
So, among the people who doubt – Are there some statisticians who are interested to look at it in detail…?
October 10, 2012 at 7:05 pm
maduro named VP
October 10, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Miguel, so what do you think Capriles should do the next (possibly) 6 years? I understand he should dedicate to strengthening his role as the opo leader, but after 6 years what will he be able to show to people? How is he going to maintain his political prominence if he is not to be directly involved with public policy formulation?
October 10, 2012 at 6:41 pm
I dont know about the next six years, I just know that it is democratically incorrect to replace Ocariz. Ocariz was chose, he should be the candidate. Period, Neither Capriles nor Ocariz has any right to change the will of the voters.
Second, he could lose, have you thought about that? Politically it would be suicide for him to lose and if there is a referendum, Chavismo may get the vote out and do just that.
Capriles is today the leader of the opposition, most in the opposition worked for his victory. His job short term should be to campaign for all opposition Governors and insure that the opposition unity is held together. Later, he could run for Congress or whatever, but now he is the leader and the possible stand by candidate in an election.
October 10, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Agreed.
October 10, 2012 at 8:45 pm
Agreed 100% . Capriles is making a big mistake here.
October 10, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Capriles will be the candidate for Miranda. So much for the fact that Ocariz was elected to be the candidate in the primary.
October 10, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Yeah what’s up with that? Chávez just announced a new vicepresident: Nicky Ripe.
October 10, 2012 at 2:33 pm
So elections are over, time for Miguels Charts, please !!!!!!!!
October 10, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Thats a really good idea, more on that later.
October 10, 2012 at 2:30 pm
I’m curious: have the 8 million chavistas been noisily celebrating the victory of the Carabobo battle, where the life of the motherland was at stake? Because, let me tell you, the chavistas at my consulate were untypically subdued. I find that very strange.
October 10, 2012 at 2:45 pm
They are not, we all find it very strange
October 10, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Same in my consulate. I’m afraid they are not pure chavistas shhhh, may feel a taste of Tascon…
Seriously, the poor people in the heart of the barrios, may be better off than 14 years ago. No fraud required. Petrochequera in action will do, until the economy collapses…
I believe Capriles understand that. Will most of the poor people believe him??
October 10, 2012 at 2:19 pm
I think it is anybody’s guess. It will be decided by a single man Jorge Giordani, who has no idea what he is doing. He has favored overshooting in the past to avoid a number of devaluations in a row. In 2010 everyone was expecting 2.6 to 3.5 and he took it to 4.3. My guess is it will be high rather than low.
October 10, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Taking it to 4.3 was exactly 100% devaluation. If he follows the same the plan it would be at 8.6. But do you think they would risk the bad press of 200% devaluation in just two years?
October 10, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Of course there was abuse of power, but we lost badly. And the opposition had higher abstention than Chavismo. There was a 13% shift in abstention with the opposition remaining constant, calculate what that means.
October 10, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Any idea what the devaluation will be that’s due for the first of next year? Another 100% devaluation or something less. Do you see it being set at around 9-10BsF per $ or more like 6-7 BsF per $?
October 11, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Miguel, I just read the latest posting of run run about dirty tricks from the government. Whether or not it is the tip of the iceberg Idont know. But it might explain why the opposition had more abstention than Chavismo.
October 11, 2012 at 12:25 pm
there was abuse of power, but they clearly had their people vote and we did not, we lost big and by too much. Even in opposition enclaves, the lower abstention was because Chavistas went to vote.
October 10, 2012 at 10:59 am
two weeks more for the results from abroad, talk about the best system in the world… or how to hide that abroad the vote was devastating…
http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/article/cne-proclamar%C3%A1-al-presidente-ch%C3%A1vez-este-mi%C3%A9rcoles-en-la-tarde
October 10, 2012 at 11:23 am
In what other country would the external vote not be included until after the results? Only one that knows that 99.9% of those external votes are not in favor of the current president, as he is the reason for most of them leaving and having to vote abroad.
Best democracy in the world?
By the way, the witchhunt has already started for the government employees who supported Capriles, or didn’t support chavez enough. Clean all facebook comments or messages if you want to keep your job.
October 10, 2012 at 12:43 pm
“By the way, the witchhunt has already started for the government employees who supported Capriles, or didn’t support chavez enough. Clean all facebook comments or messages if you want to keep your job.”
That’s too bad, but if you made the decision to support Capriles then you should face the consequences, and with pride. I know it shouldn’t be like that, but that is the reality.
If you are going to run to clean facebook comments in fear of the bullies, if you want to live like an hypocrite not standing up for your rights, the military boot will be on your head for the rest of times.
October 10, 2012 at 6:07 pm
There are a lot of people with families working these government jobs (and by government jobs I mean everything but the empanada makers and Polar), that stuck their kneck out to support Capriles because: 1. They thought it was right, and 2. They thought he would win. Now that he didn’t win, the same militant, paranoid chavista base that has been persecuting anyone who spoke harshly against their supreme leader thugo, is being dealt with, Tacson style. There is more here at stake than just sticking up to the bullies. It comes down to work or not. Family first. I applaud the ones who had the nerve to stick their kneck out, and fear now for their future. Will they do it again…probably not.
October 10, 2012 at 10:49 am
People are focusing on the technical points from the day of the election to justify Chavez’s so called victory .Why so? To relieve themselves of any obligation to contest the results ?
What is the difference between fraudulent elections and one with abuses of power?
October 10, 2012 at 10:57 am
Mucho ventajismo cerdita.
October 10, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Fire: We know we are not dealing with a “normal” election by any democratic country standards. Capriles was very clear when he said it was the fight of “David against Goliath”, where Goliath is actually the whole Venezuelan state.
The problem is that complaining and talking about fraud has taken us nowhere in the past. We must win despite the dirty tricks and knowing that they are very present. When we have convinced enough people for the dirty tricks to be irrelevant, then we will be able to construct a new country.
Read the third comment on my post, left by “unknown”.
October 10, 2012 at 10:44 am
Miguel,
“And the abuse of power was definitely a factor. Cháez had unlimited resources, plus a myriad dirty tricks up his sleeve, from null votes, to shutting down the Miami consulate, to the Unidad Democratica change in candidate, every bit counted”
“but in so many of those rural areas, the media is tightly controlled by the Government”
Is this what some people call ” winning fair and square” ??
If all these dirty tricks have biased the results even before the elections, how can anyone say there was no fraud?
Sounds a bit like people are developing a bit of Stockholm syndrome.
First, most were insisting on the overwhelming popularity of Capriles.Now they are believing Chavez’s results.I say they are HIS results, because he has the main power for 14 years over a society who is living in a repressed and manipulated environment.
Can we really know how many people even among ” Chavistas” might have wanted to vote for Capriles but when confronted with the fingerprint device , figures that one single vote wasn’t going to make a difference and was not worth the consequences of having their name on a Tascon list.
With intimidation and repression fair and square elections are a contradiction in terms.
October 10, 2012 at 10:27 am
My two cents of post-mortem analysis:
A maturing presidential candidate with a vintage of 8-months could not yet topple 14 years of a well-oiled, imperfect machine.
I kept my optimism for Capriles tempered, until a few days before casting my vote, when I entered the bubble. The letdown emptied me on Sunday night. But by Monday, I felt resigned with the status quo, and the realization that the vast majority of Venezuelans still need a “strong man” to keep them in check, still need a father figure to look up to, while enjoying his piñata handouts.
Capriles, who requires a more mature citizen, does not fit that paternalistic mold.
October 10, 2012 at 8:24 pm
This problem can only be solved by education, education, education for everybody! I grew up in a country that provided almost equal chances for everybody, so I know it’s possible. And “socialism” is not necessary for it. People in that country don’t tend to paternalism, would feel strange about such approaches of governing. But it was a development of at least decades, if not a century (depends at which point of time one starts counting).
If Capriles “troups” understand that they have to aim nothing else but including even the poorest campesino entirely in the development of Venezuela, not just proclaiming it for a campagin, and then continue to communicate their programme believably, they will have a chance to win eventually.
If there is a solid idea, a vision comprehensible for everybody, maybe “performed” in some opposition estados already so that people can beginn to understand and grasp it practically, there is a chance to convince.
It needs careful getting-in-touch with the people in rural areas, in example. It is finally all about introducing a vision and ideas which make sure nobody will stay behind, educating people with patience, feeding that with much money, and simultaneously diversifying economy step by step. Introducing all the social benefits that western europe countries developed through decades, step by step. Establishing separation of power, and extinguishing the hidden fires that clientlilism causes.
The task is nothing less than making the thoughts and plans true this time that Venezuelans had already more than 50 years ago: To jump in the “First World”!
I think the aim can only be kind of a true “social democracy” – and this includes everybody.
The key to reach the majority, especially in long term, is the social issue in every way.
If THIS is clear to the opposition, the electorate, step by step, will understand it, and at this point, people will listen and be interested in economical concepts, comparing them.
Opposition has in this matter always the “better cards” in long term, because socialistic concepts of economy have not worked anywhere. But this opposition must undertand that it can play these better cards only if getting deep into the social issue, covincingly.
As long as people tend to ask (with good cause) “Who cares about if I will have even a little share of that?” they won’t ever care about economic concept, separation of powers etc., and just stick to Chavez and take what he spreads.
Venezuela could become kind of a Norway, but with the better climate!;-)
The elites and middle classes just have to develop a vision of that kind…
October 10, 2012 at 9:58 am
To be honest, I haven’t been this optimistic in a very long time. First, I had no doubt that Chavez would carry this election, so no surprises there. Second, no doubt Chavez is really sick. Third, economic outlook for 2013 doesn’t look so good. So possible scenario: devaluation by February, price adjustments, etc. followed by the cancer doing its job, and finally an election before the year is out. Viva Capirles
October 10, 2012 at 9:12 am
Miguel, here’s my own post-mortem analysis for your Spanish speaking readers.
http://cuentosintrascendentes.blogspot.ca/2012/10/analisis-del-dia-siguiente.html
October 10, 2012 at 7:03 am
By the way: and I was less optimistic than you in the elections.
The reasons why we lost most of the votes are clear to me. But I also see perfectly well that we lost other votes for things that are less kosher.
Every single vote counts.
October 10, 2012 at 10:56 am
Kepler, tú que siempre jurungas esa data, cuántos venezolanos votan en Cuba? I’m curious…
October 10, 2012 at 11:54 am
How many cubans voted in Venezuela? How many citizenships awarded this year with new voting credentials? chinese, iranian, sirian, etc.
October 10, 2012 at 12:58 pm
I don’t have the latest but 2 years ago they had almost 400 Venezuelans, not much.
As Concerned says, much much much worse is the amount of
Cubans with Venezuelan IDs now IN VENEZUELA.
They are mostly not in Caracas, there are lots of them in secondary cities around the country.
October 10, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Don’t forget they control the ID system themselves. One of those G2 agreements.
October 10, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Great point.
Hope somebody digs up that data and use it to clean the cne registry before december.
Anecdotically, in my “mesa” in the US, there was a recent venezuelan citizen representing the goverment with a havanna accent….
October 10, 2012 at 2:12 pm
That happened a lot in Guacara, Carabobo and other places.
October 10, 2012 at 7:00 am
Miguel,
The truth does not lie in one specific item. I said it before: I believe Chávez clearly won because more people voted for him. Why? Because of the things you have mentioned.
Both the ID 19777306 and 19777305 voted. Both are called Leyvi Chatherine de la García Ramírez and were born on the same day. There are 39999 cases like that. Are they insignificant? They don’t win elections but if they exist they are a clear proof those records are corrupted. If they were put there
the same people that put them could have added as many records where the doublets do NOT have the same birth date.
There is NO way to discover them unless we were to do a significant large call for people to come forward. That is not possible.
Putin won the elections. I think almost no one contends that. And yet most international observers coincide with the fact that results were optimize.
We lost by a large number. Still, for me, every single point matters because every single point will give more or less energy for what comes next.
And Chavistas know that.
Did they get 55%? Or did they get only 54, 53%?
For me that is important as well. The rest, the 11% or 10% or 9%: de cajón, los perdimos por las razones que ya has mencionado.
October 10, 2012 at 10:09 am
When the vote is manipulated, and other votes were not counted as is known by virtually everyone, the doubt is cast for all future elections that “My” vote won’t matter. Future abstention will be huge.
When checking birthdates, how many were over 100 years old? The zombie vote has been practiced here before.
Most anywhere else in the world, documented fraud as you mention above would be enough to review everything. You could be sure that this is just the tip of the iceburg, and that other tricks were applied.
Back to my first statement. The voter needs to know that his vote counted and mattered.
October 10, 2012 at 11:12 am
Another thought about your findings. With sequential numbers, it is not as if the voter fooled the pollster, by leaving and coming back with a different shirt to vote twice. This was done while they watched, or was done from a list by the pollster with the voter not even physically participating. By now, everyone has seen the video that is circulating. Where were the observers? How come the almighty fingerprint machine didn’t catch the multiple votes, and if not, what good is it?
I believe this is more organized, widespread, condoned or instructed than we earlier may have thought, and the impact of those votes, plus the nulls and external count play a larger part than implied. These votes shouldn’t be discounted so quickly.
October 10, 2012 at 5:15 am
Well unless you own a guerrilla, you have to hown to what you have always known. and 48 hours passing still makes you realize that you are still breathing and that the world isn’t over. Voting is still the only legitimate way to defeat this oppression and to gain access to the means of public discourse. As they say the legislative elections are not far away and the momentum of capriles radonsky must continue and work towards that next confrontation. keep denauncing, keep the information flowing and keep fighting the secrets and the abuse of power. Keep investigating the flow of the petrodolares and keep denauncing what we know is the greatest thievery our eyes have ever seen. Just because they think they can, and think they can fool an entire population and entire world doesn’t mean their word is true. Miguel, Daniel Quico, you guys are fantastic and your work an inspiration to all of us.These are the tools we must continue to use. Godspeed y que dios los bendiga.
October 10, 2012 at 1:57 am
Has there been any comparison between the townships he visited against the overall rural vote? Did his visits bring up the vote total for HCR?
October 10, 2012 at 12:03 am
If oil goes to $200 / barrel, Hugo will budget for that, spending almost all in the process, leaving none for a rainy day, or the inevitable crash.
and he food he imports will follow that price trajectory…
October 9, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Who knows why? I don’t! One thought I had was when I saw the story about the new Bolivarian Spy Satellite was imagining party bosses telling folks how this new satellite could see thru roofs and walls and tell how they voted. Why not, they can show them their rancho on an Iphone using old gringo technology.
Regardless, they cast their vote and good or bad will have to live with the results.
October 9, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Varianzas the best pollster? I dont know about you, but the only pollster I trust, both before and after this election is Datanalisis.
October 9, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Really? 10% in Chavez’ favor, 15.5% undecided and three scenarios, one with 83% of the undecided going to Capriles? That is a good pollster? No way.
October 9, 2012 at 8:43 pm
I have to ask this: is it actually possible that the poor are indeed better now than before Chavez? How else do you explain the result?
October 10, 2012 at 12:09 am
Well, this is not up to date: http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SI.POV.GINI/compare?country=ve , but it points in that direction. Part of the reason is possibly that the wealth of the “haves” is being reduced through emigration, and that professionals are poorly paid even in comparison to other Latin American countries and have their living standards eroded by inflation. But your original point (rhetorical question?) still stands.
October 11, 2012 at 7:48 am
Just goes to prove that an increasing “wealth gap” is preferable to a decreasing (“equality”) one. The only way to have equality is for everyone to be poor. (Excepting the Leaders, of course.) You know, like Cuba. Or Animal Farm.
October 9, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Please forgive me, but, you’ve gotta see this!!!
http://babalublog.com/2012/10/tribal-marxism-lateeen-oh-style/
October 10, 2012 at 10:31 am
stupid waste of time. not interested in manufactured opinion from cuban-american tea partiers. I hope this is your last one, CharlesC. You keep bringing this garbage onto this and other blogs. Don’t. Thanks.
October 9, 2012 at 8:11 pm
“No puede haber borrón y cuenta nueva en Venezuela, ciertamente no para la pandilla de 237 hampones que han arruinado al país.”
Quote from Mr.Coronel today.
October 9, 2012 at 7:23 pm
I was better than varianzas, told you Ch would be win by 6%. They also gave Spain’s ABC a shitty exit poll with Capriles winning. Got two theories that may explain some of what happened. One for the overall result, another for the state by state…
October 9, 2012 at 8:28 pm
OK Alfredo, talk or write…let us know your theory.
October 9, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Danny Glover, what a dickhead.
October 9, 2012 at 7:22 pm
You Venezuelans have a “job” to do. I can’t for the life of me figure out why it hasn’t been done!
October 11, 2012 at 7:46 am
It’s because they think it’s basic human decency. However, this is flawed reasoning. It isn’t decency, just misguided thought.
October 9, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Chavez clown prince of a decaying societyBy David Frum, CNN Contributor
October 9, 2012
Front page CNN.
Outside perception…………
October 9, 2012 at 8:03 pm
The CNN article by David Frum is excellent and on target.
Half of the comments at the bottom are from idiots who know nothing about Venezuela-just hate the US…
I found one rather amusing comment:
‘Chavez, who speaks publicly against the US while he visits Iran, Cuba and other countries that have no relations with the US. He likes to show his balls, in which is quite embarrassing for the Venezuelan people’
from Redprint. Well, I feel embarrassed most everything Chavez says and does-but I have not notice Chavez doing that! Agreed, that also would
be embarrassing, too…I heard he gave his to Raul…
October 10, 2012 at 10:38 am
Outside perception…………light and airy from a Canadian-born right-wing commentator in a news outlet, where next to the article are other sensationalist headlines, such as “man dies after a roach-eating contest”. I’ll pass on the pap.
October 9, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Hey Miguel, any idea on much the coming devaluation will be? Do you think it’s possible, due to the parallel market increase, that it will be over 100% devaluation bringing the official rate to something like 9 or 10 bsF per dollar. Or you do you expect something lower around 6 or 7 bsf?
October 9, 2012 at 4:16 pm
I’d like to hear more about this too.
October 9, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Did anyone hear that on the street it is 11 bsF per dollar?
I heard that on Monday…
October 9, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Disagree with you on a major point:
If oil goes to $200, the whole world is going to be fucked up–including VZ.
It has to stay where it is to most benefit VZ.
October 9, 2012 at 2:09 pm
For sure the outcome of the election was a heartache, but if there was perhaps over-optimism before, it seems to me that there is over-pessimism now. Capriles did a very good job and got a great popular response wherever he went. I still think that elections in a regime that wins in the rural areas and uses the voting machines made by a company it controlled are highly suspect (it reminds back then when ATT and other US telecoms were wondering how come they couldnt achieve the same levels of efficiency as Enron..).
For the future, the prospects of Chavismo dont look so good: the economy is tanking, the president is sick. I dont think that Venezuela is like North Korea where one Kim can easily succeed another; it is also more open to the world where its neighbors are doing well and its friends not so well.
Perhaps the greateast danger now is to think that all is lost and let go of gains made the hard way, of course, it is easy to say that from afar. As somebody said in this blog, Chavez “owns” the economy now, and there is for the first time a credible alternative to him.
October 9, 2012 at 1:59 pm
The saying goes that “every people receive the government they deserve”. If the Venezuelan people continue to elect Chavez, they’ll get the inept, corrupt government they deserve.
Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 15:45:49 +0000 To: kenprice@hotmail.com
October 9, 2012 at 1:56 pm
I am not so sure Chavez will push for a change in law to allow his VP to take over if he dies. Chavez is so paranoid I cant see him allowing anyone to be a heartbeat away from his job. In my view he rather die in office with no one waiting in the wings that can possibly upstage his legacy.
October 9, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Venezuela can have as many elections as one can imagine but CHAVEZ WILL NEVER LOOSE because it has the power in every single institution. teh elections was nothing but a -burla al pueblo Venezolano!- the cubans knew the winner of the election way before even started! As long as Chavez is supported by Cuba, nothing, NOTHING in Venezuela is “transparent” 6 more years of the same crap, mas pobreza, mas hambre, mas migracion de profesionales a otros continentes, mas corrupcion, este fue el tiro de GRACIA a Venezuela.
October 9, 2012 at 3:21 pm
My way of thinking ! The Cubans learned it long ago from the Russians and East Germans and still have quite a number of those as “advisers” …The Linke in Germany is proud to help Cuba and Venezuela ..
Voting computers are not used anymore in a number of European countries because it is too easy to manipulate the results !
October 10, 2012 at 2:49 am
Fully agree. Chavez keeps repeating that the middle class will never get in power again and he means it. Anything will do. Let us not forget that he and other toy soldiers attempted to oust a democratically elected government and spilled blood not to speak of A-11. He is a thug with the varnish of a democrat sort of like a drug peddler that marries into gentry. BTW I have a hard time understanding the fascination of latinos with the military as if those were a superior cast, the custodians of the constitution, What a joke, they a more the problem than the solution.
October 9, 2012 at 1:31 pm
What if he loses?
October 9, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Will it matter?
He’ll be prosecuted for x reason and sent to jail again within a year.
BTW, he acually lost Miranda. For a tiny bit, but he just did.
October 9, 2012 at 1:29 pm
And, BTW, I disagree with Capriles not running in Miranda. He needs to be seen, he needs to be in the spotlight, otherwise he will be forgotten.
October 9, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Not sure how good of a strategy is risking the guy losing again, that’d twice. I think he should stay out and be the leader and unifier of the opposition forces.
October 10, 2012 at 7:30 am
I think he needs to act as representative of the opposition and visit every state with their candidate.
October 9, 2012 at 1:28 pm
There is nothing in the news, I am just guessing that it is coming.
Nothing in the news about Ocariz moving to Sucre to replace Caldera and Capriles running for Governor, but I hear they are thinking about it. Big mistake!
October 9, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Tu quoque, Miguel?
I just left a note in CC’s that I’ll have to paste here. I’ll have your name added..
Thanks a lot, Francisco Rodríguez, Bank of America, Merril Lynch and Juan Nagel for giving Chávez ideas and, on top of that, spread them as far as you can…
No nos sigan ayudando, compadres!
October 9, 2012 at 1:46 pm
¿Ah, tu crees que no se les ha ocurrido? Me lo dijo un Chavista hace meses, ambos escenarios y todo dependía de la ventaja de la victoria.
Ah! You think it has not occurred to them? This was told to me by a Chavista months ago and he told me it depended on the margin of victory.
October 9, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Miguel, if that was the same person that told you Chávez will be dead by your brithday…
I have not heard anything from a chavista source, that idea I have heard only from few in the oppo side… but if you guys keep feeding them with good ideas…
October 9, 2012 at 2:16 pm
So I guess we should remain quiet in face of the obvious.
You have to beyond naive to believe that we are giving them ideas.
October 9, 2012 at 3:51 pm
This attitude of underestimating our opponent is not helpful, you really think they aren’t being advised or some of them thought of this already? that’s being naive.
October 9, 2012 at 5:50 pm
I am afraid it may be the other way around: chavistas make circulate the rumors that interest them among influential people.
October 9, 2012 at 6:04 pm
So now it’s a conspiracy. We are going places.
October 9, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Not necessarily, it is just politics. It is a way to divert the attention of the opposition.
October 9, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Ocariz should go for Miranda.
They need also to urgently look for leaders from outside UCAB.
Now too late. Whom do you propose for Miranda? The running one?
October 9, 2012 at 1:27 pm
What Referendum are you talking about? I have not seen anything in the news.
October 9, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Look, we went up 2 million, Chavez went up 600,000, that tells you a lot in my mind. Clearly they went all out to get the vote out and we did not. For the first time, abstention in oppo areas is larger than in Chavista areas. Maybe we did not work our own areas well. Maybe we did not have funding, but increasing our vote by more than three (or almost four two one) to one what Chavez did tells you something. And it does not suggest fraud.
October 9, 2012 at 1:21 pm
I meant large cities
October 9, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Miguel,
Sorry for being fastidious but I think it is important we define what we mean by “rural”. A city of 80 000 inhabitants is not rural, it is urban.
We lost Puerto Cabello. We lost Los Guayos. We lost Guacara.
We lost Tocuyito. We lost Maturín.
When we start recognising, as people do in the North, that a densely populated centre with more than 50000 people is by all means “urban”,
we will start seeing what strategies we need.
Capriles did it very well. Still, we should have got more support from more people of the opposition.
We need 20 good speakers sharing one programme. That is doable.
We need them to be more representative of the national population and that means not so much colour difference (that helps) but regional differences.
October 9, 2012 at 1:06 pm
On the happy note, that’s a cute photo. Quico’s photo of himself actually made me cry.
Where the heck is Island Canuck?
October 9, 2012 at 3:15 pm
I think he’s packing his bags.
October 9, 2012 at 3:48 pm
I left a message for Island Canuck over at Caracas Chronicles on of the posts comments, I really want to hear from the guy, he must be feeling shitty since he was pretty convinced of a victory.
October 9, 2012 at 4:16 pm
He was the most enthusiastic of us all.
He aslo mentioned he was not going to be able to endure 6 more years of this pandemonium. So I’m kind of worried he has not shown up yet.
October 9, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Yeah 😦 I hope he shows up.
October 9, 2012 at 12:59 pm
The key has to be in the rural vote where chavez supposedly cleaned house. Did the masses turn out in the rains in the rural areas and all vote chavez? Were there observers in all of these polls, and did a living, breathing voter fingerprint and sign for every vote recorded from these areas? I have seen the youtube cameraphone videos of the repetitive votes using the fingerprint scanner from Sunday, and the system obviously didn’t care or reject them.
Many comparisons are being made to the 2006 vote by area, but was it accurate then? There were huge numbers of voters who have supported chavez in every vote up until now that were voting Capriles, so it may not be accurate to take 2006 totals and assume that they all voted again for chavez plus new voters.
With the cubans controlling the CNE voter registry, as well as all ports and airports, it just comes down to juggling numbers and people as needed. There is too much to lose, and the opposition is historically and rightfully passive and nonviolent, accepting initial results to prevent bloodshed. It is a stacked deck, and I don’t see a peaceful way out. Under these conditions, the only person who can stop chavez is chavez. With the price of crude, and a following that believes chavez can do no wrong, chavez just might make 2024. Don’t count on cancer to bring him down because that could have been a lie too. He was sick no doubt, but it may not have been a life threatening illness. I don’t know what the answer is.
October 9, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Look. The Capriles campaign kept taps on what was happening around the country gathering witness reports as the “mesas “closed. I’m fairly certain that whatever they have matches what the CNE reported. Too much effort was put into this to believe that these guys would be passive if inconsistent data had been prersented by the CNE. We lost the count. Time to regroup and move on.
October 9, 2012 at 12:51 pm
I am just reaching for anything at this point 🙂 Look at this video from a famous Ecuatorian “vidente” who predicted 9-11 and Haiti’s mischiefs. ( He talks about Chavez close to the end) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIeI90qeyAA
October 9, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Well, kudos to Reinaldo Dos Santos. In an uncertain world, he has more credibility than Christian (I’m-now-pollster-analyst) Burgazzi.
http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/09/01/christian-burgazzi-mas-claro-no-canta-un-gallo-y-menos-una-gallina/
October 9, 2012 at 12:20 pm
The ONLY good thing about the reelection is that the economic time bomb will explode on his watch.
October 9, 2012 at 12:20 pm
AGREE!!!!!
October 9, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Let’s hope he gets at least some of the blame.
October 9, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Coño, I agree that he will face the consequences of the mismanagement but it is only “good” if you are watching this from afar. For those of us that will likely be here, it is something not to look forward. Particularly because it is really imponderable the lengths Chavez is willing to go in order to shield his government from responsibility.
October 10, 2012 at 2:27 am
What economic time bomb? That story has been going going on for ever. Even when the country went on its knees during “el paro petroleo”, he managed to pull it off. Chavez is a criollo sheik. He’s got oil, not the Venezuelans, him. That allows him to negotiate any deal he sees fit.
October 10, 2012 at 4:47 pm
It can’t go on forever…. and I’m glad it’s not the responsibility for the opposition. It’s like a pyramid scheme that can’t stop or it will fall. It just has to get deeper and deeper.
October 9, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Mesas are chosen using the paper cup random number generator, imagine setting up that fraud!
October 9, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Miguel, I understand mesas were taken in account ONLY if there were witnesses. Is that right? So: from the total set of voting units, they used only the rooms with witnesses.
And I am not very sure we got witnesses at every table, unlike what some oppo leaders said. We definitely didn’t in 2010.
October 9, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Kepler I have been thinking along the same lines: the un-audited machines are the ones being tampered with. But I think that is impossible, this is why:
The key elements are: 1) the CNE should not know which machines were (or were not) audited and 2) the opposition should have witnesses in every voting center and after the election they should compare the published results with their own manual results.
To satisfy key element 1: the results should be transmitted to the CNE as an aggregate of all the machines at the voting center or if they are transmitted machine by machine, the machines themselves should not know if they are being audited or not so they could not report that back to the CNE.
October 10, 2012 at 2:33 am
Just in case: all in all, I am absolute sure Chavismo won because more people voted for Chávez.
And yet…
My point, Ernesto, is that I doubt we had witnesses in every mesa, unlike what they said. I am open to people who tell me otherwise and who have been themselves in mesas outside the main areas, specially outside Miranda.
Caldera (YES, CALDERA) told Francisco Toro back in 2008 or 2009 that they had them all under control and I know they didn’t. I don’t know why he lied but it was not true at least then. I have relatives and friends who were witnesses – yet again – in poor areas of Carabobo, areas people in Caracas keep calling “rural” but are in reality densely-populated secondary cities with around 100 000 inhabitants (all clustered around Valencia).
I didn’t ask them now about the mesas but on the previous elections – also when Caldera said everything was controlled – they were desperate for more volunteers in the tough areas. Everyone wanted to be a hero in Prebo, in El Vinedo, in Naguanagua, in Guataparo.
Now: if you know which mesas have witnesses, it is a piece of cake to get
machine X receive just a boolean number: true would mean “go ahead, optimize”, false would mean “act kosher”
If true, the machine could add several new votes for the caudillo
within a range that can be determined by some module with the machine’s id plus, say, second when machine was first activated (which would be a random number)
Of course, this is just a hypothesis but if there were no witnesses for mesa X, it is possible.
October 10, 2012 at 6:24 am
The witnesses were there mid 90% in all areas mostly one mesa remote centers not covered. The opposition had wotnesses even in Cuba. Why dont people look at the truth, that a Mision Vivienda registry of 2 million people was used to go and get people at home to go vote. Look at abstention, a shift of two digits on Chavista abstention versus static or worse for the opposition? That is where the truth lies.
October 10, 2012 at 10:50 am
In my voting center they brought -while I was waiting on the line- two buses full of people. They never had to wait, and when we protested, the national guard said that they were “refugiados” from misión vivienda.
My husband protested harder: “so, they have more rights than us? they don’t have to wait in line for ours like us?”. Of course, no one paid attention…
October 11, 2012 at 7:37 am
And granting voters special privileges (not waiting in line – see Liz’s comment below) isn’t Democracy. This alone violates the election. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it until Chavez or I leave this God-forsaken earth: Chavez will never leave power via the ballot box. Think DICTATOR.
October 9, 2012 at 12:04 pm
I would believe the results of the elections if somebody shows me the results of the audited mesas vs the results of the mesas that were not audited. If they are similar, give or take 1% different THEN I will admit defeat and move on with my life outside Venezuela, as I were before the elections.
Right now, without proof, I believe that we cannot win because there is electronic fraud done by the CNE/Smartmatic combo, and its very simple, if the mesa is audited, then the results stand and if the mesa is not audited then they change the results depending on the location of the voting center, therefore Chavez cannot lose.
I am probably wrong, but its hard to believe that our pueblo is too afraid, too ignorant, too envious, too lazy, too…. dumb.
October 9, 2012 at 11:31 am
Have been caught up in your struggle for quite a while .l too felt distraught over the election results. I can’t imagine going through 6 more years under “him”. I also can’t imagine going through 4 more years of Obama. I know your struggle seems insurmountable, but you can never give in or give up .
October 9, 2012 at 11:27 am
Nobody has managed to tell me how this phantom voters do vote. Why should I give INE credence when they did not count me? To date, nobody has found me one single phantom voter, other than those registered who did not go in polling tables in 2010 where we had witnesses.
October 9, 2012 at 11:49 am
That indeed is the question. If we knew, it would be easy. But its not. However that does not mean its improbable. More so when you look at the data. Is Venezuela so different from other countries? Do 80% of the population of age actually vote?
October 9, 2012 at 12:45 pm
I don’t know if this is true, just posting it FYI
October 9, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Y que conste! I think chávez won fair and square. I hate all those convoluted theories that are going around the web right now.
October 10, 2012 at 7:34 am
Liz Dear,
It is not convoluted to say that in 14 years of dictatorship there is no such thing as free elections.It is very simple really.
I think the people of Venezuela are suffering from varied forms of Stockholm syndrome.
What is convoluted is trying to explain the so called freedom Chavez provides the people to make their own choices.
October 10, 2012 at 4:43 pm
When Chavez thinks he might lose, he talks about militias and the army saving the revolution. When he knows he’s going to win, he is the champion of free elections and peaceful transfer of power.
October 10, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Correcto.
October 10, 2012 at 10:18 pm
That video circulated months before the election, it “proves” nothing. Results at my voting center – pro-opposition and tightly controlled – led me to believe just after closing that we had probably not won. But that’s not the point. Let’s concentrate on how to reach out and influence the lives of at least that 10% we need to bring over. Let’s prove that we ARE smarter, more creative and efficient, instead of staring at our navels! Hay un camino, ¡ahora toca construirlo!
October 9, 2012 at 11:24 am
Cualquier parecido con la realidad sera pura coincidencia? No creo en gritar fraude solo por hacerlo. Pero if it walks like a duck… Esto fue en enero:
http://webarticulista.net.free.fr/ee201226011827+Erik-Ekval+Primarias.html
Miguel, to que eres hombre de data, cruza los resultados del censo 2011 en el INE con la ficha tecnica del CNE. 100% de los mayores de edad en el pais estan inscritos para votar… really… only in Venezuela?
October 9, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Amazing but I hope it is a mere coincidence. Can our politicians be so corrupt? I surely hope not
October 9, 2012 at 11:21 am
Sadly Miguel, this election erased all traces of hope I had that “there is a way”.
I’m very pesimistic. I just saw Venezuela commiting assisted suicide with the help of 7.5 million people.
It’s a country where high education translates into “oligarchy”, where you are who you are not because of your values or proven capacity, but for your looks and the colour of your skin. Being “white” means being “rich”, therefore “an exploiter”. I have read in many places that “Capriles lost because he doesn’t look like them, like the pueblo, he looks too “high class”. For me, that’s the most absolute sign of racism, and sadly, it’s absolutely embeded in the brains of the people with less education, after 14 years of daily and ruthless propaganda chavista.
Capriles offered opportunities and education, but in Venezuela that is not important, As long as the heavy chequera keeps giving freebes, there will be no way to reverse that now.
I also had to endure hearing from a chavista colleage that the only way for the WORLD to get out of this crisis was imposing a comunist system everywhere. I couldn’t comment further.
October 9, 2012 at 3:13 pm
“I also had to endure hearing from a chavista colleage that the only way for the WORLD to get out of this crisis was imposing a comunist system everywhere. I couldn’t comment further.”
A simple “F*** you” would have sufficed.
October 9, 2012 at 11:07 am
For enmienda, Chávez proposes it and goes to referendum. An enmienda can not change the “structure” of the Constitution. La reforma, structural changes, will require two thirds, but I can see the Supreme Court saying that this is not a structural change for the case of the VP replacing the President during the first four years.
October 9, 2012 at 11:15 am
If they try to pull that off it will be a shitstorm. I hope we don’t get there.
October 10, 2012 at 6:29 pm
I personally also feel that they know by doing so, they would go too far.
October 9, 2012 at 11:04 am
First paragraph. It should be high turnout, not low…
October 9, 2012 at 11:01 am
Agreed, what is exactly needed to change that constitution bit? I don’t see how that could be change without the opposition support, or is it possible?
October 9, 2012 at 11:28 am
I still feel that the opposition is being way to complacent in the defeat. I feel like they have essentially given up for at least 6 years, which we know by then the little bit of democracy (if we can call our system that) will be totally gone. 20 years and yet he continues to be revered worldwide for being a democrat. I feel like chavez has this all planned out and we are just puppets in his show.
As Andres mentions here, http://www.the-counterpoint.com/discussion/U, I am still not convinced the elections were truly honest.
October 9, 2012 at 11:38 am
No offense but why you keep posting this same link on every post?
October 9, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Because I want to find out what are the counter-arguments to that comment.