Wow! I was shocked to read the international press today. Apparently, Hugo Chavez is not well. Something to do with his health. Look up Hugo Chávez in Google and the fact that Chávez is not going to Brazil, apparently induced some people to believe that this creates “speculation” and “fears” about his health.
Where have all these guys been?
Let’s see: The most outspoken, unstoppable, self-centered, ego-centric. ego-maniac. media-oriented, superficial, blabber mouth, show-off politician ever to hit Venezuela, all of a sudden:
Disappears from the media. As a matter of fact, his last “live”, “live” appearance was only 59 day ago when he held a press conference with real people present after being reelected. There have been some less “live” appearances since then. The last one was exactly 21 days ago. Except in all of them, he was seen only seated at the Cabinet table, with no outsiders present and even in his lengthiest broadcast, he spoke for less than a third or fourth of the average time of his usual ramblings.
And then, he just fails to make any of these “live”, controlled appearances since November 15th. and on November 27th. he surprisingly says he needs permission to be absent from the country “indefinitely”, in order to go to Cuba to get some sort of mumbo jumbo-hyperbaric-Cuban-tried-and-tested treatment for whatever ails him.
And all of this happens in the middle of a very significant political campaign for Governors, where his presence is essential, because he selected some people like these cone heads below, with his own mind and finger, to be Governors:
and somehow their campaigns are faltering because they are not from, nor do they live in the states that they are running for Governor (and the two on the right are sooo stiff!) and silly Venezuelans seem a little unhappy about that.
So, what makes these reporters think something is wrong with this guy’s health? How do they do their reporting? They call Miraflores and ask Maduro how Hugo is doing? Or do they call Raul in La Habana and ask (He probably knows more)?
Because the only basis these guys had for imagining that all was sort of ok with Hugo in the last few weeks, was the fact that some press guy in Itamarati, Brazil’s Foreign Office, said that Chavez had confirmed he would be present at Venezuela’s first ever Mercosur Summit as a full member, which starts tomorrow. What they failed to note, was that the “confirmation” was received twenty days ago, before Chávez had stopped his “live” appearances and two weeks before his now infamous request for an indefinitely leave for medical treatment in Cuba.
So, today, because he is a no show in Brazil, the international press seems to have deducted Chavez “may be” or is “feared” sick.
Way to go international press! (Except for my buddies at Bloomberg, who seem to be on top of things)
Meanwhile “markets” and “investors” seem to be more on top of it. Below, I show the “benchmark” Global 2027 bond and what it has done ever since Chavez took his “leave”. (Other bonds have done even better) This is the same one that Quico said he would not buy and he is not too dumb a fellow, but he could have made a bundle of yen with it, had he not unbookmarked the Devil on his Japanese sojourn:
As you can see, the price of the Venezuelan Global 2027 bond was just plodding along, drifting up and then right around Nov. 27th. (Funny, the day before Chavez’ announcement, actually!) the price of this bond starts moving up like crazy and goes up more than 10% since then, closing at 100% today for the first time since 2008.
Bonds usually don’t do this on rumors, only on facts!
So, these market guys seem to be on to something. Yes, they go up because Venezuela should yield sort of like the Ukraine, which would shoot the price of the bond up another 20 points or so. Except that things are not that linear in Venezuela. The road will be bumpy one.
To start with, the bet is that nobody can be as bad a Minister of Finance than Giordani. If Chavez leaves, a “real” economist will come in and will never do as bad as the current Minister of Finance.
Wanna bet?
Until Chávez named Jose Rojas Minister of Finance in 2000 or 2001 (and he was an economic statistician), the number of “real” economists that had held the position was less than the number of engineers, sociologists and mathematicians combined that have held the position in the last twenty years. Economists are considered to be like Astronomers (Or is it astrologists?) in Venezuelan political circles.
But I digress. Because even more dangerous, is the fact that the path, if Chavez is a no-show on Jan. 10th., is filled with uncertainties and possibilities. Just about everyone could be President on Jan. 10th. if Chavez no-shows (not me!), because the new President of the National Assembly will be selected on Jan. 5th. and Chavez and PSUV can truly name anyone they want to the position.
Think absurd: Even the Fosforito.
And yes, the Constitution is clear, elections have to be called within thirty days. But that’s all it says. Really. So, imagine new President Chavez (Adan)/Maduro/Jaua/Rodriguez/Cabello (Did I leave your name out?) on February 10th. calling for elections on say, December 10th. 2013 or 2014. Why not? I am sure the Chavista Supreme Court would go along with it, even if the opposition and all of its mud rejects it.
And BTW, dear international press, now Maduro is the pro-Cuba choice? Have you met or talked to Adan?
So, the road to riches, even if you are smarter than reporters from major international newspapers, is also filled with potholes going forward. The “easy money” will end the day we know the truth about the autocrat’s health, whether good or bad (which depends on which side you are on)
After that, it will be a rocky, stony, bumpy, potholy, spiny, filled with nails, path of uncertainty and the end is almost impossible to guess. My guess is Hugo is not well at this time. They may be trying to prop him up one more time so he can be sworn in on Jan. 10th. and the charade can continue. Or he may be close to done by now. I dont know. But I hope they don’t succeed.
Venezuela deserves better. And I will not miss him.
And now he reappears, talking poetry, calling himself Fidel’s flame (no comment) in a carefully controlled video. His arrival was not shown live, but he is back. The mystery deepens. Something was clearly not well, something happened. Now we have to watch how much he participates in the campaign
The Devil's Excrement 
December 9, 2012 at 5:29 am
It seems to me that if you come back to Venezuela, scotching rumours you are about to die, then announce you are about to die, there is a huge amount of money to be made on the markets. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the Presidential ‘gift’ to his closest advisors/family: i.e. buy now before I make the announcement.
December 9, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Oh, my! I thought I was the only one thinking Chávez could be that sick.
December 8, 2012 at 11:07 pm
no telling what with these guys. you cannot believe chavez specially now. mosca!
December 8, 2012 at 10:50 pm
If Henrique Capriles gets elected as Governor of Miranda on 16-Dic, can he leave somebody in charge and run again for President (if there is another Primary and he wins) or must the Miranda elections require to be repeated again ? (also posted in CC)
December 8, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Good evening,
The parallel exchange rate was going through the roof in the last 4 days, any clue to what will happen after this announcement ???
http://www.dollar.nu/
1 – It will go inverse to the trend in the Venezuelan Bonds shown by miguel
2 – Or it will continue going up to low offer and excess demand…
Take your pick…
December 8, 2012 at 10:20 pm
No time to mourn this moron. Time for the oppo to re-engage
December 8, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Well, what about now? He is undergoing emergency surgery and named Maduro his dolfin…
December 8, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Found this comment in Noticiero Digital, and I wonder the same thing: “¿Maduro venía con él en el avión? ¿No es que estaba encargado de la presidencia, y supónía estar en Venezuela? No sé, me pregunto yo. ”
Walking behind chávez:
December 8, 2012 at 2:28 pm
His country is falling apart and he is babbling nonsense.
December 8, 2012 at 5:25 am
If one could only have a little peek at the faces of his treating physicians when he announces that he will be going back without having finished… whatever they were doing in Cuba to help him live a couple of months more.
He might impress the simpleminded and irrational believers, as well as the conspiracy nuts (who believe he is just faking). But in my ignorance, even I tend to think that cancer is a complex and serious illness, and that these little rebounding acts could mean that his time… gets shortened.
December 7, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Bariven is waaaay behind (again) in paying their bills…..
December 7, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Is it possible he was doing drug rehab to kick a pain killer addiction?
December 7, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Isn’t he suppose to be at a dinner tonight with Dilma and Cristine? He cannot hide his true health status that much longer. At some point,….it will become clear. Time is on the side of the opposition.
December 7, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Same sports suit he always uses when he comes back from Cuba, how do you know that part is from yesterday? Just being Devil’s advocate.
December 7, 2012 at 4:12 pm
HCF came down mobile stairway w/o using rails. If you ask me, something like that is rehearsed in Cuba or he went off-script meaning he was supposed to use rails. He looks good to me meaning months of public appearances. ETD 6-12 months.
December 7, 2012 at 3:37 pm
HC goes away only when Venezuelans decide to rid themselves of him. Just how tough can that be?
December 7, 2012 at 3:32 pm
I half-assedly skipped about on the video of his supposed arrival at supposedly 2:30 am, during Chávez’ cotorra-mode. My jaw dropped when he mentioned (political-economic philosophe) Rousseau. You know, I didn’t spend the needed study time on these philosophes, but I’d wager dollars to donuts that you wouldn’t be able to find the quote that Chávez attributes to Rousseau.
Of course, no one in his inner circle would bother to verify Chávez’ claims, so enamoured are they of anything this BSer says. Certainly Maduro wouldn’t have a clue who Rousseau is.
December 7, 2012 at 2:08 pm
“Venezuela deserves better. And I will not miss him.”
Well said.
December 7, 2012 at 1:56 pm
“Bonds usually don’t do this on rumors, only on facts!”
An old maxim on Wall Street: Buy the rumor; sell the fact.
December 7, 2012 at 12:14 pm
The track suit commandante appeared tired and moved slowly. Even the mouth was not up to speed. However, to me, Chavez did not appear any worse than he was around Oct 8th.
Chavez is trapped. He cannot relinguish power because of the high probability that he will be prosecuted. This also means he cannot retire and must endure the duties of being presidente. The time in Cuba was a vacation for him.
December 7, 2012 at 12:08 pm
I endured 6 minutes of the video… too much habladera de paja!
December 7, 2012 at 3:26 pm
la campeona!
December 7, 2012 at 4:24 pm
I don’t even know if he cited Rousseau during those minutes Syd. I got dizzy with so much ardimiento. He’s got one of the most terrible man crushes on fifo.
Then, he’s part of the realismo mágico in Elorza next to Arauca river…. paja, paja, paja!
December 7, 2012 at 11:22 am
Why do we even bother wondering why he arrived in the middle of the night like a thief? Why place such importance in the comings and goings of this little, insignificant insect? Has anyone noticed that he has been wearing that damnable jacket with the Cuban national flag colors for the longest time? Is this to confuse people and fool them into thinking that the pictures published in the papers are recent ones? What non-official photographer was there to actually shoot the photo of the so-called president arriving and coming off the plane with his two ever-present daughters (who, by the way, also wear the same jeans, etc.). I think it’s time to start ignoring him and live our own lives in this miserable dictatorship!!!
December 7, 2012 at 11:36 am
Deanna,
What I find weird is that people endlessly speculate but do very little real protesting…such a waste of time.
People are always exactly where Chavismo wants everyone to be , in a labyrinth of confusion
December 7, 2012 at 10:36 am
His voice has energy.It is not the voice of someone drugged up or someone weak.
December 7, 2012 at 10:02 am
The video is carefully edited. There are many cameras but it flows seamlessly.
December 7, 2012 at 10:00 am
3:00 am and he’s talking so much b.s….I won’t miss him either. In fact, I couldn’t pass the minute 4.
He looks thiner though.
December 7, 2012 at 10:52 am
You listened more than 1 minute? You are obsessed, Carolina :-p
December 7, 2012 at 7:24 pm
I’ve been working on my endurance after 7O.
December 7, 2012 at 7:05 am
You’ll get a chance to see him in person when he goes to vote for his favorite governors.
December 7, 2012 at 10:36 am
he does not vote in this election since he is registered in distrito capital
December 7, 2012 at 6:27 am
That’s why I say it’s too early to say. He’s dead when he’s dead.
We need to keep him running, not keep ourselves wondering.
Say things that make him go bananas or act in a more gorilla-way
December 7, 2012 at 6:43 am
That’s a bit like trying to get Atlantic ocean to go wet or act in a more ocean-way 🙂
Not that I disagree with you, Venezuela needs more opposition to reduce the likelihood of going the way of, say, Myanmar or Zimbabwe.
December 7, 2012 at 6:08 am
Noticias 24 has images of a smiling Chavez
December 7, 2012 at 8:10 am
I saw him on VTV, he didn’t look like he was “repotenciado”, more like forced smiling, followed by nostalgic (or hopeless) look. Maybe he has no recurrence at this point (maybe he has…), but the organism has already paid a toll to the treatments. Lets wait…
December 7, 2012 at 5:59 am
Nacional reports Chavez arrived at 3 AM unclear if there are images
http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Chavez-llego-Venezuela-madrugada_0_95391227.html
December 6, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Go to hell Chavez….
December 6, 2012 at 11:19 pm
December 6, 2012 at 11:16 pm
State TV (VTV) is running a special program about the life of Chávez, fitting?
December 8, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Chavez: I’m not dead yet.