Let me try to understand the current scenario: The opposition just suffered one of its worst defeats ever since Chavismo came to power. Chavismo can give the opposition the final knockout punch by holding elections as soon as possible, elect Chávez’ chosen successor ( And Castro´s!) but Diosdado wants to wait and give Chávez time to get better by loosely interpreting the Constitution (and saying it is the opposition that wants to rush the process). Of course, we hear Maduro say nothing about the issue. Not one iota from Maduro about Jan. 10th. just Chávez is better, while time simply gives the opposition the chance to: select a candidate, organize, raise funds and try to regroup after the Dec. 16th, defeat.
Does any of it make sense to you? Does it make sense for heir apparent Maduro to wait? Does this make it sound like Chavismo is unified?
Because in the end, what we do know is that it does not look like Chávez will live for four years after Jan. 10th., the time that would have to elapse for Chavismo to hold on to power for the next six years. But it does seem, like if you rush an election now, before the ¨people¨can realize what a terrible candidate Maduro is, Chavismo can cling to power for six more years.
Instead, we get Godgiven Cabello telling us daily, at every turn, all over the country, how Chávez does not have to show up for however long he wants. Of course, Godgiven will be President all of this “extra” time, call it Cabello´s overtime.
So, I would have to agree with Dieterich, that Cabello is trying to bypass Chávez’ wish of designating Maduro as his successor. but while Godgiven addresses the issue at every step, Maduro just plods along, talking about unity and that Chávez is getting better. But Maduro has yet to say beep about what happens if on Jan. 10th. Hugo is a no show.
Is this for real? Or is this a well planned out game of making the opposition believe that the elections are not forthcoming? Because otherwise, it just seems as if Diosdado wants to extend to the power he should only hold for thirty days after Jan. 10th. for as long as he can.
To me, this is the best possible scenario for the opposition.(Just better, not much more) Let the elections be delayed as soon as possible. Let economic decisions be delayed. Let Maduro go around the country “campaigning” so that people can see he is just a Chávez wannabe and let the oppo build up a credible challenge.
Does it get better than that? I doubt it. But it still seems like a distracting ploy to me.
Next important date: Jan. 5th. Will Diosdado be ratified as President of the Assembly or will a woman named Blanca be named? And will she become the first female President of Venezuela, albeit for thirty days?
The Devil's Excrement 
December 27, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Thta is all it is in my opinion.
December 27, 2012 at 11:01 pm
One possibility is that this power struggle between Diosdado and Maduro is actually an orchestrated tactic by the Cuban regime to distract the opposition. I would not be surprised if on Jan 10th the absence of HCh is suddenly and unexpectedly declared, and new presidential elections called and implemented ASAP. This would catch everyone unprepared and Maduro could win with no need of fraud. Remember, the Cuban regime is desperate and will do whatever it takes to continue sucking our oil.
December 25, 2012 at 7:36 pm
There will be nothing “sobrevenido” about Chávez not being able to show up on Jan. 10th.
December 25, 2012 at 7:11 pm
“It is nowhere ceded by the host country as being part of the foreign state,” House says.
oooo
Yes, true, but “ceding” isn’t the question.
The question is whether the Venezuelan Embassy in Havana is partly exempt from the jusrisdiction of Cuban law and whether the taking and giving of oaths on the premises of the embassy lie within this extraterritorial exemption from local [ that is, Cuban] law. If so, then Venezuelan law and jurisdiction applies to the premises of its mission and Venezuelan law also applies to the taking and giving oaths inside the embassy even if Cuba doesn’t “cede” to Venezuela the real estate on which the embassy stands.
As for the existence of the supreme court outside of the territory of Venezuela but still on premises subject to the jurisdiction of Venezuelan law, this question is controlled by the Venezuelan Constitution, law, and court rules.
I find no obstacles in the Constitution.
I don’t have access to the laws and rules. Unless a simple majority is required, the composition of the National Assembly makes its hard to pass a law explicitly giving the supreme court the authority to do this action. But the Court may have implicit authority.
The representatives of the other powers of the State often go abroad in their official capacity. What incapacitates the judicial power?
December 25, 2012 at 9:42 pm
You find no obstacles in the Constitution? Clearly you just don’t know it and just come here arrogantly spewing your ignorance about the Venezuelan Constitution. Are you sure there is no limit? Are you a Venezuelan lawyer? Because Venezuelan lawyers say exactly the opposite of what you say above. Read the Venezuelan Constitution. All of it. You may be surprised.
In the end, this is all a distraction, they want to distract the opposition and surprise it with a fast election.
December 25, 2012 at 6:39 pm
My feeling is this is all a distraction. They know they want to call elections as soon as possible but use this to distract the opposition so that it does nt organize.
December 26, 2012 at 1:08 pm
I agree that this whole situation is turning into a soap opera! Meanwhile, the economy is running on empty, and some rancid excrement is about to hit the fan… but where is everybody’s attention focused? How long can this play out as a distraction? Can it hold center stage even when shortages and long lines become commonplace?
December 27, 2012 at 8:24 am
But, purposely in a bit of an ironic tone, the so called opposition doesn’t need to be distracted. The “oficialismo” is doing, in my opinion, all this extra work, and the opposition is (and has been) already distracted (disfunctional, fragmented, superfluous, chaotic, disconnected from reality, and lastly, ineffective). It could be called, in short, “una oposicion de pacotilla”. The so called “Chavismo” (ojo, far from monolithic, but so far – “por ahora” – thanks to the presence of “Mico”, more so than the Opposition) will, at the end, be a minor player determining how the events develop. After Mico is no more, in my opinion, it will be “Chavismo’s” own dynamic (lease implosion) that will determine how events develop. And, in my mind, the question no longer is not if but when.
December 25, 2012 at 4:14 pm
“If so, Maduro, the Venezuelan foreign minister, argues that the premises of the Venezuelan Embassy in Havana are as much the territory of Venezuela as the land which Caracas occupies.”
But of course this is not true. The Vienna Convention sets out the precise status of Embassies in international law. While there are specific protections in place for Embassies–for example, non-entry by host country–it is nowhere ceded by the host country as being part of the foreign state.
If all of tthe Members of the Supreme Court fly to Cuba, they are not thhe Supreme Court any longer. They are just a bunch of individuals with judicial status inside Venezuela.
December 24, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Which is legally absurd
December 25, 2012 at 12:42 am
The Venezuelan constitution is absurd, written by a bunch of amateurs with mostly socialist ideologies. It is pure junk, legally, morally, and practically.
A coherent constitution should need no more than a few 8 x 10 pages.
Junk it. It is useless.
December 24, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Cabello says postpone Jan. 10, citing ambiguities in Article 231.
Maduro, on the other hand, says let’s do Jan.10, if we can. But let’s postpone, if we can’t.
Maduro wants either to fly the Man to Caracas on his hospital bed to swear or to fly the supreme court to Havana to hear The Man swear. Article 231 says the president-elect shall take the oath of office “before” the National Assembly or “before” the supreme court — in other words, not necessarily “at” the courthouse unless the courthouse is where the Court convenes.
The court can convene anywhere it wants.
See for yourself. Here’s Article 231 “The candidate elected shall take office as President of the Republic on January 10 of the first year of his constitutional term, by taking an oath before the National Assembly. If for any supervening reason, the person elected President of the Republic cannot be sworn in before the National Assembly, he shall take the oath of office before the Supreme Tribunal of Justice.”
Does this swearing-in on Jan.10 “before” the supreme court rather than “at” an empty courthouse still have to take place on the territory of Venezuela?
If so, Maduro, the Venezuelan foreign minister, argues that the premises of the Venezuelan Embassy in Havana are as much the territory of Venezuela as the land which Caracas occupies.
December 24, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Dieterich’s just a rampallian and a bull’s pizzle and what Browning would call a twat.
The bloke is a sociologist who came to university through evening classes not because of poverty but because he was too thick. In Germany only part of his family and some within the extreme left party Die Linke know him (those who have been to Cuba or Venezuela).
Spiegel wrote a little bit about him a long time ago…not precisely in a flattering way
(in German, but you can use Google, funny piece)
http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-39694633.html
Any Chinese restaurant’s sucker fish knows more about economics than this creature.
The guy thinks he has come up with an original and great idea by saying one should be paid according to time spent in one’s work (that’s what any bad civil servant would think). He also claims computers will make the perfect participatory democracy possible, of course, as he had the chutzpah to say, as long as the right ones control the system.
He is probably quoted in Spanish and English America as a theoretician of the 21 Century Socialism because his Mexican university refers to him as “a German professor”. They might think his ideas may be more coherent in German and they are somehow lost in translation. No, they aren’t.
And he finally started to distance himself from Hugo when he was left waiting during an event. Heinz felt snubbed.
And now, of course, he is a reformist…and who says that? Probably Diosd$do C$b€llo
All these guys are living in their lala-land, they are shameless profiteers.
December 24, 2012 at 1:29 pm
When Baduel became DEFMIN, they clipped his wings by having key military units and garrisons not report directly to him or not allowing him to appoint and designate those commanders (role given to Godgiven Hair who appointed many classmates and pals). Who are Godgiven loyalists in these key firepower positions today? If Godgiven controls the military firepower, he controls the country. One reason Maduro given DISIP?
December 24, 2012 at 11:08 am
Shouldn’t the opposition be going “pueblo por pueblo” saying that Chavez lied to them?
Just saying.
December 24, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Unless a tactful way could be found to tell the pueblo that Hugo Chávez likely knew he was NOT CURAO, on 7O, the pueblo-by-pueblo accusation could backfire, given the dying object.
December 24, 2012 at 10:28 am
Miguel is probably right that time is playing against Maduro. What I dont see is the oppostion taking advantage of the respite to try and come up with a program that will explain to the people why it can make Venezuela a better country for all. I think that they will not win if they just try to be the anti-Chavismo because they will run against a ghost.
December 24, 2012 at 8:57 am
I think Diosdado is trying to distract too. Hoping somebody would try discuss that and so they can say, “see, the necrophilic opposition” (and/or calling for elections in the next days… when are the major-elections now?… hmmm)
Anyway, given the time, they will pull whatever trick they can…
Maybe Chávez could somehow get to the swearing-in at least on the embassy… or they will tell that…
But someone with 4 OPs, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, 2 cancer recurrences, he will need maybe 2 months to somehow recover, and the next recurrence is at the corner… if not already growing in other locations or the last one because impossible to be completely taken out.
Evo Morales wanted to visit him, why no news?
December 24, 2012 at 5:35 pm
2 months recovery?
If Chavez, by some miracle, does stage a complete recovery, he’s looking at 6 months of rehab at a minimum. It could take up to 2 years to be able to start working for a few hours a day, and his body will probably be too ravaged for anything more. If they want to cure him, he’s looking at another set of chemo and radiotherapy, the second set usually all but ruins the body.
December 24, 2012 at 6:58 am
The way I see it, there is a slight chance that Chavez will become only the second person in history to become a national president after assuming room temperature. The first one was Kim Il Sung.
December 24, 2012 at 1:27 am
You make it sound as if the decision to call an election has anything to do with Cabello, or Maduro for that matter. Nope.
It seems as if Chavez will be back, if only for a few more months, which is preferable to not at all. Remember, Maduro will win this election whether the opposition are organised or not.
Dieterich is a reformist who wrote a book saying how 21st century socialism should be reformist (in revolutionary language of course). The less anyone listens to him, the better.
December 24, 2012 at 9:00 am
“It seems as if Chavez will be back”
Really? on Jan 10th? Really. What special info do you have to say that? Are you a medical doctor? A Chavez relative?
As to Maduro winning, the longer this election takes, the less his chances will be, particularly if Chavez is no longer around. Imagine abstention in a year with Chavez gone. Anything could happen, Maduro is a terrible candidate and the opposition could hold primaries if given the time and who knows what could happen.
The amazing thing is that it was Chavez’ wish to have elections in 30 days if he was not back, but somehow his words are not as important as they used to be already.
December 24, 2012 at 10:13 am
Dieterich is a reformist who wrote a book …The less anyone listens to him, the better.
Oh thank you, sage of the left. We would have never known about Dieterich without your pearls of wisdom. Sarcasm intended. So do consider preaching to the right choir, away from these opposition blogs, where you so love to return again and again, in the delusion that you can teach us what we already know.
December 24, 2012 at 3:48 pm
“Maduro will win this election whether the opposition are organised or not.”
Depending on who is controlling the voting machines and software?
Do you really think Maduro would have the clout, as a candidate, to distribute large appliances?
December 23, 2012 at 11:55 pm
I think that this has much to do with who will get the blame for the economic measures that have to be done soon.
December 23, 2012 at 10:19 pm
They are leaderless and afraid. Chavez only allowed sycophants around him, those who were no possible threat to his power and charisma. They have nothing to offer because they never did, all they had was their loyalty (real or pretend) to their fearless leader.
December 23, 2012 at 10:12 pm
The fact that Diosdado wants to postpone elections if Chavez cannot make it on January 10th makes it obvious that he is playing his own game. The only way he can derail Maduro is by being SO loyal to Chavez that Maduro has to wait. And wait. Maduro can’t respond without looking like he wants to push Chavez aside.
December 23, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Bizzaroworld….