Venezuela: Seven more Years!

December 27, 2012

20121204_TALC1_24_1_F1Not much happening in Venezuela. I am not sure if the Government is legal or not, I have no clue as to whether Maduro could publish another decree written before Chavez went to Cuba tomorrow and saying that he designates him as the temporary President. Or anything else for that matter. Why not? All we hear is that Chávez is slightly better and then two hours later we are told he is exercising. Way to go Hugo! And while this happens, Maduro blasts the MUD because it it has to be “accountable” to the Nation.This from the “Chávez is fine” crowd who will be telling us soon that somehow things have taken a turn for the worse, but Chavez was fine almost all the time he has been sick. Eighteen months of a two year illness.

But there are more important things to ponder. No, I am not talking about the Constitution, to me it is clear that it is badly written and there are gaps that no amount of BS can clarify, because it is not clarifiable. Whatever was meant to be included about the temporal absence of the President elect in the Constitution, was removed because it was not clear what it meant for the President elect to be temporarily unable to assume power. Rather than rewrite the article, it was removed. Sounds like Chavismo, always taking short cuts.  The best Constitution in the world, which rigidly fixes the date of the inauguration to be Jan. 10th. Simply stupid.

But the whole discussion is simply spurious. Chavismo knows what it wants to do. They want an election as soon as possible. That is why Chávez was operated on on Dec. 11th. and not a day earlier, so that Chavismo can stay in power for seven more years. Seven long years, if Chavistas can survive each other. The problem is that Diosdado wants to be “it” for a year and Maduro wants to see how he can stay for seven. Scary to imagine Diosdado as President for a full year, I don’t see him leaving for some weird reason. Scary, because here is a guy who can always find excuses to ignore the Constitution, arguing the “popular will” or whatever he deems necessary. To say nothing of his military DEA-blacklisted buddies.

And it will be interesting to see who wants to be the true spiritual son (or daughter) of the holiest Chavista of them all. He said Maduro, but anybody, from Diosdado to Adan, to Gabriela may now claim the crown. And we may likely spend the next fifty years trying to get rid of this new religion, which will not only have gods, but false prophets, new temples and spurious deities. And every year, a new record like this one is likely to be established, but it will not matter. The show will have to  go on, with or without Hugo. Like so many things in Venezuela, the Metro, Conare, CVG, democracy, Billo’s, Hermaonos Alvarez, IVIC, INTEVEP, USB, Museo Sofia Imber, things work, as long as the original creator and administrator is still around. After that, they deteriorate. Sometimes fast, sometime slow. Yes, things can get worse, much worse, and fast. Don’t want to take bets in that.

But speaking of violating the Constitution. As of today, we have seven serving Justices of the Venezuelan Supreme Court who aren’t. Yeap! Just like that. Another one in a long string of practicalities implemented by Chavismo. Please, don’t take the Constitution literally! These guys were alternates, who did not follow any of what the law and the Constitution say. But you see, if they went to the Assembly, they would have to ask the opposition, and that would be intolerable in the Chavista “democracy”. And since Chávez was elected by popular vote, he should be able to select the alternates, even if we don’t know if he is really around. No? Constitution my butt!! As potential First Lady Cilia would say: “It is just a formality to ask the Assembly to name them”

I agree, everything about the law is about the formalities that need to be followed for countries to function. That is precisely why Venezuela has become dysfunctional. The laws became irrelevant long ago.

And so it goes.

Really, not much happening.

Until Jan. 5th., on that day, we will find out who will be the President for the first of the seven long years. Get used to it! Or more precisely the fraction of eleven of those twelve months until Jan. 14th. 2014, when the newly elected President takes formally takes over.

Only formally…

42 Responses to “Venezuela: Seven more Years!”

  1. […] Venezuela: Seven more Years! « The Devil's Excrement Go to this article […]

  2. Gordo Says:

    Roger Says: “We will just have to see what happens”. Do we need to spend time arguing about it? I’m doing planning doing what Roger says… and I’m going to make my plans about what I and my family are going to do in the future. Can’t do anything about it but everything depends on it.

  3. Roger Says:

    Like all things Venezuelan, there are so many groups and one constant, lots a oil money at stake. Kinda like the Good the Bad and the Ugly. For sure all will bend any law or rule they can to win election, coup or whatever. We will just have to see what happens. Here is a possibility or at least a good movie to watch this weekend.

  4. Kepler Says:

    Well, Miguel, the Misión “Your Haier Plasma TV instead of Hospitals” will begin very soon, so that sounds and smells like elections…announced by the minister of “the Popular Power for Trade”.

  5. Debbie Nash Says:

    Hey Shaw, you legal PSF, what this is, is a gigantic and dishonest ripoff to Venezuelan democracy and its people. In any country with a true democracy:

    1) The full extent of Chavez’ illness should have been disclosed
    2) Because of 1) Chávez should not have run. That was an “engaño” to all Venezuelans, but more so to his supporters, who mostly (according to polls) believed that he was cured because he told them.
    3) Because of 1) his absolute absence should have been called, because he is terminal.

    But the religion of Chavismo (of which you clearly are a card carrying PSF) is all that matters at this point and that is why such a big, dishonest, unethical lie has been executed and told by these people who don’t know what a democracy and the rule of law is, so all your PSFic arguments you can stick you know where.

  6. moctavio Says:

    I have also stated too many times, that I think this is all a distraction ploy, Chavez cant show up, neither will he, elections will be called and the oppo is in deep shit. If you pontificated less and read more my blog, mauve you would not look like the jerk you are and you still have mot answered my questions, which shows what a fake you are. Did you ever find Art. 18 of the Constitution?

    • A. Shaw Says:

      “Did you ever find Art. 18 of the Constitution?” Octavio asks.


      “Article 18: The city of Caracas is the capital of the Republic and the seat of the Organs of National Power.

      “The provisions of this article shall not prevent the exercise of National Power elsewhere in the Republic.”

      “A special law shall establish the territorial and political unit of the city of Caracas, incorporating into a two tier system of municipal government the Municipalities of the Capital District and those of the State of Miranda. Such law shall provide for the organization, government, administration, competency as well as resources of the city, with a view to its harmonious overall development. In any case the law shall guarantee the democratic and participative character of its government.”

      Are you sure you’re looking for Article 18?

  7. moctavio Says:

    And i gave mine but you dont read or understand: he has to be sworn in on Jan 10th. Unless someone goes to the Supreme Court Nd asks for an interpretation because the Constitution says NOTHING that applies to this case. The Court will likely rule that the President of the Assembly takes over and the health of thePresident elect has to be evaluated, based on the Art. Proposed but not passed by the Assembly in 1999, everything else is spurious and a bunch of BS. As of today, if Chavez does not show up and the Court is not asked, the President of the Assembly assumes and has to call for elections. Period.

  8. Gordo Says:

    I don’t really care what they do! They’re going to do whatever they’re going to do. I’m not going to let them effect my emotional state anymore. I can’t see the future, and over the last 10 years, no one has been able to predict what’s been happening. All I know, is that what they are doing is going to be unsustainable. It will collapse, and nobody is going to benefit from that.

  9. And pathetic is using the term “bourgeois media” how cliched can you get?

    • A. Shaw Says:

      You say I don’t answer the question.

      Isn’t the question: Does 231 apply here and now?

      Haven’t I at least given an answer to this question even though it’s not your answer.

    • syd Says:

      triple cliché: “contrary to what the ‘bourgeois media’ reports ‘day and night’ ‘all over the world’.


  10. Capriles is playing it right, back Diosdado, create a fuzz and that is not what he said in any case, so don’t take a stupid high road,sideskirting the issue and not answering as usual. what you say and Capr1iles says are different. He is playing politics anyway. I talk to Venezuelan Constitutional lawyers, one of which was part of the Constituent Assembly. You have no f…. clue. And in the end Capriles and I disagree on most things.

    • A. Shaw Says:

      The bar is deeply divided on this issue.

      Capriles’ motives are always suspect, but he is still capable occasionally of expressing truth.

  11. Again are you a lawyer with a Venezuelan degree or still talking up your butt? You make absolutely no point. Art 231 is very clear to real lawyers who know Venezuelan law. You pontify, lie and never answer. And you have no clue about Aug. 19th. 2000. Did you ever hear of “Decreto sobre el Régimen de Transición del Poder Público y el Decreto sobre el Estatuto Electoral del Poder Público” issued by the Congresillo? So one thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other. And the rest is just the usual BS which shows you have no clue. Have you read the Constitution yet?

  12. A. Shaw Says:

    “Art. 231 says the elected President takes over on Jan. 10th,” Octavio writes.

    One of the vey few correct representations from the Oppo of what 231 says about Jan. 10.

    Art. 231 only says the President takes office or power on Jan.10 if he takes the oath before the National Assembly. 231 doesn’t say he must take the oath on Jan.10, contrary to what the bourgeois media reports day and night all over the world. True, he can’t take office unless he takes the oath. But he can take the oath on any day of the year if the National Assembly lets him.

    For example, the President in 2000 took the oath on Aug. 19 before the National Assembly. Is Aug. 19 the same day as Jan.10? Is Aug. 19, 2000 before or after “Jan. 10 of the first year of his constitutional term?”

    Here is actually what 231 says about Jan. 10, according to 2006 translation by Ministry of Communication and Information, the Ministry was expressly authorized by the National Assembly.

    “Article 231: The candidate elected shall take office as President of the Republic on January 10 of the first year of his constitutional term, by taking an oath before the National Assembly.”

    Please, read it again.

    What’s the difference, you ask, between taking office and taking the oath?

    An oath is only a promise to exercise power in accordance with the law.

    Taking office is the possession and exercise of power.

    Compare them to consummation and a wedding vow.

    The point of all this is that if the President doesn’t take the oath on Jan. 10, he’s not “absent” under either 234 or 233.

  13. firepigette Says:

    2012 al 2013 : Una incertidumbre que se empeora. Deberiamos hacer votos de compromiso con cambiar indolencia y chisme por acciones y seriedad…

  14. arco Says:

    Remember that Chavez is suffering and dying slowly! Lets all enjoy this moment.
    After chavez we will see what happens.

    • Ronaldo Says:

      All I want is for Chavez mouth to stop working. Keep him around for the corruption trials.
      Chavez is not suffering because, even in his sick condition, he enjoys unlimited power over Venezuela. For Chavez, I believe, this is more important than his health.

  15. Gordo Says:

    Sounds like the war is over! Chavismo has won (unless the majority wakes up!).

    • You sure? Who will be the first one to say: Chávez made me do it, when the economic mess explodes?

      • Noel Says:

        On the other hand, the Cuban economy has been tanking for half a century and there has been no revolution yet, and Venezuela has a lot more export revenues than Cuba.

        I think that not being an island, Venezuela has more of a chance than Cuba, but it seems to me that faction rivalries within the Chavismo may be a quicker and surer way out of the problem. Who knows, 2013 may be a year when big changes will happen.

  16. syd Says:

    Hay que escuchar muchísima guachafita en el audio, antes de oir la opinión del
    Dr. Enrique Lopez Loyo, jóven patólogo de la Clínica Sn Román (Ccs).

    López Loyo maneja informes científicos, obtenidos a través de congresos de patología. Le da razón a Navarrete, y piensa que, en base del perfil público del paciente, el país merece saber lo que le está pasando a Chávez.

  17. moctavio Says:

    Well, if your respect the Constitution, it has to be within thirty days of Jan. 10th. That would be Sunday the 5th. of February, which would eb ok, because the next one is Carnival (and not within thirty days). Can CNE arrange that? They probably were already told to be ready.

  18. Dr. Faustus Says:

    “Chavismo knows what it wants to do. They want an election as soon as possible.”

    When is the earliest possible date a new election can be called?

    • Glenn Says:

      When Chavez is confirmed dead and not a day before. Apologies for my cynicism but I am completely convinced 10 January is meaningless as the constitution is meaningless to Chavez. It only ever existed to pretend democracy.

  19. LD Says:

    Not that they don’t will do that, but Cabello yesterday told something like if Capriles would be the elected, they wouldn’t want to wait to the 10th jan. to point the absurdity of the 10th jan. as the only day to swear in. Not that I trust him…

  20. moctavio Says:

    That is what I wrote about, she is one of the seven replaced.

  21. Getashrink Says:

    There are even more ambiguities than you would think in the way article 233 of the constitution is written. For example, it says,

    “Cuando se produzca la falta absoluta del Presidente o Presidenta de la República durante los primeros cuatro años del período constitucional, se procederá a una nueva elección universal y directa dentro de los treinta días consecutivos siguientes. Mientras se elige y toma posesión el nuevo Presidente o Presidenta, se encargará de la Presidencia de la República el Vicepresidente Ejecutivo o Vicepresidenta Ejecutiva.
    En los casos anteriores, el nuevo Presidente o Presidenta COMPLETARA EL PERIODO CONSTITUCIONAL CORRESPONDIENTE.”

    Which period is supposed to be completed? A new one with the full six years starting from the date the new president is sworn, or the period that starts 01-10-2013 and ends 01-10-2019. In other words, suppose, for example, a new president is elected in July 2014. Does he get to be president for six full years or only four and a half to complete the period that starts on January 10th?

    Well, I think I probably know the answer. If Maduro wins, he gets six full years. If the opposition wins (however unlikely), it’s only until 01-10-2019.

    • moctavio Says:

      Six full years, it is a brand new period, new President.

      • Getashrink Says:

        If that’s the case, it should have been written “…el nuevo Presidente o Presidenta completara el NUEVO periodo constitucional correspondiente”, in order to avoid ambiguities.

        • moctavio Says:

          It is all very fuzzy, the way it is written, but what is clear is that a newly elected President takes over on Jan. 10th.Thus, he would be in charge for either 5 or six years depending on interpretation, Chavismo seems to be leaning for the seven year interpretation, saying the new six year period begins on Jan. 10th. 2014.

          • Glenn Says:

            Miguel why do you reference the constitution? It does not exist. The next president will be chavista and will serve from whatever dates dead chavez or the supreme court orders. 10 Jan is irrelevant.

  22. moctavio Says:

    Art. 231 says the elected President takes over on Jan. 10th. If Chavismo held elections on Jan 11th. (By now impossible) the new President would take over Jan 10th. 2014. Thus if on Jan 10 2013elections are called for February, the interim President would stay for eleven months and the elected President takes over Jan. 10 2014. The only question then is if he is President for five or six years, Chavismo is talking six. Wonder why..

    • Getashrink Says:

      If this is the way it works, it is completely absurd. What’s the point of having to call for elections 30 days after the president’s absence if the new president has to wait almost a year to be sworn in??

  23. ThePatriot Says:

    “Until Jan. 5th., on that day, we will find out who will be the President for the first of the seven long years. Get used to it! Or more precisely the fraction of eleven of those twelve months until Jan. 14th. 2014, when the newly elected President takes formally takes over”

    Could you please elaborate on that? Also, I’d like to get more input in the economic measures for next year as well.

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