Elections Are Coming! Elections are Coming!

June 22, 2015


Elections are coming, but don’t get too excited yet. The ever affable and joyful Tibisay Lucena came on TV today and revealed to the country and the world, the closely held secret of when Venezuela’s Parliamentary elections would be. And then she, bitterly and acidly, proceeded to blast all of the critics of the Electoral Board, whose pristine record, from not having yet revealed the final vote of the 2007 referendum, to gerrymandering, to rushing to swear in Maduro the day after the questionable election in April 2013, she proceeded to defend. Deep in her troubled mind there must be an excuse for keeping the date secret for so long. For leaking and telling friends of the Government any date from September to December, before letting the “people” know when the elections will finally be. (Hopefully)

So democratic, it makes her democratic soul tremble with joy to make the announcement.

And then we are supposed to believe now that Obama and Shannon had something to do with this. Because somehow, Shannon agreed with the Capo to let elections proceed, in exchange for some mysterious concession. Because equally somehow we are now expected to see Leopoldo Lopez give up his hunger strike, as if holding elections was the only thing he was asking for. Maybe he will, but the reason Lopez is in jail, is because he is a dangerous organizer and leader, who in 2013 put in danger the Government’s phantom vote factor with his use of a strategy to have witnesses in over 90% of all precincts.

Of course, there are other theories, like Diosdado was negotiating for himself, undermining Maduro, who simply sent Delcy Rodriguez, his Foreign Minister, to spy on Diosdado during the meetings.  A sort of Agente 007 a la Maxwell Smart and nobody noticed that she was there in order to weave a proper conspiracy theory.

But jeez, nobody seems to find it strange that Shannon would meet with Diosdado (and have pictures taken) if he is being investigated. Yes, there is separation of powers in the US, but there is no lobotomy for thinking strategically. If in a few months an indictment was brought forward against Diosdado, the anti-Hillary, anti-Obama, over half of US politicians, if not more, will raise hell and Shannon would be forced to resign.

All of that for mostly ignored Venezuela, on the third year of a US Presidential term, with an unpopular President?

I find that hard to believe…

But Venezuelans seem to believe everything they are fed these days, particularly those in the opposition, even if Chavistas appear to be quite gullible too. One must look at the way people reacted when some Brazilian newspaper suggested Dilma has called her Foreign Minister to find out about what happened to the Brazilain Senators in Venezuela. Until Itamarati issued the a rather bland press release which was followed by Marco Aurelio Garcia’s statement calling the visit an intromission into Venezuela’s affairs, which was finally crowned by Dilma’s own statement that the visit was “shameful”. and an intromission into, bla, bla, bla. It seemed both statements were written by Maduro’s handlers.

But yes, the elections are coming!

And to guarantee their integrity and the reputation of the Electoral Board, Tibisay will only allow the pure, technical and unbiased observers of Unasur!

What a joy!

Unasur will be here!

The same people that backed the results of the 2013 election and called for an audit that was never fully implemented. For their good job in 2013, they get the exclusive in 2015. They can send as many “observers” as they want. Please no experts, just observers. Just like Chavismo runs things in Venezuela, Unasur is not expected to send anyone with too much knowledge of voting processes, computers, cheating and the like. No, Unasur will send true Foro de Sao Paolo sympathizers, for a taste of revolutionary traveling, as well as arepas and cachapas. If they have time, they can visit some of the revolution’s success projects, wherever they may be ,now that most Barrio Adentro’s modules are shut down.

I mean, it was an exquisite way of proving exactly what Tibisay was blasting her supposed enemies for. Venezuela could have invited the OAS, of which it is a member. Too many “come mierdas” there for Maduro. Or it could have asked Disodado’s best new friends from the US to send four people to observe. But no, in the same announcement of the closely kept secret, she gave exclusivity to an organization that has no record, experience or competence on Electoral matters, other than the infamous 2013 Venezuelan Presidential elections.

Truly, you can’t make stuff like this up. The revolution can always rewrite history any way it wants.

But Tibisay better hope that things go well and the revolution stays in power by whatever means necessary. Because if one day the Electoral registry can be examined or somebody sings to tell us how exactly elections were rigged, Tibisay will have to visit The Hague for violating the rights of most Venezuelans.

She will have to get in line to be tried, but she will be there…But I digress.

And now the strategies begin. I must say I thought that the elections were going to be held sooner (September/October) rather than later (December). Because things are deteriorating fast, very fast. Because right now, there isn´t much of anything to buy or its very expensive. While in Caracas last week, I heard all sort of conspiracy theories about the Government stashing money away to import things ahead of the elections and flood the country with “stuff”.

Really? If the “stuff” will be imported by the Government, you have to be truly gullible to think there will be all sorts of stuff around. They will steal half the money, rob half the stuff and in the end there will be too much of many things and little of a whole bunch of others. And I am not counting what will go to Colombia.

And can the “stuff” I arrive in time for December 6th? Call me skeptical of Chavista “planning”, an oxymoron, if I ever saw one.

Maduro’s plan, according to some sources, is to make the election about the “people”. The “people” are PSUV, and of course, the memory of Chávez, who happened to be elected for the first time on …you guessed it, Dec. 6th.

It will not be about Maduro, the economy, Diosdado or anything like that It will be about “Ustedes”, “el pueblo” and “El Comandante”.

Of course, inflation could screw it all up. I hope it does.

23 Responses to “Elections Are Coming! Elections are Coming!”

  1. Juan Largo Says:

    Ira said: “There’s a point where the economic conditions and suffering of the people no longer matter, and it’s all about power and control.”

    History does not support this. Nor can you isolate out power and control separate from money and suffering. They are all of a piece – somethig well uhnderstood in sociology.

    For instance, Maduro is stil in power because the military, on the whole, is still beholden to him, or to DDC. How much longer do you think that alliance would last if the military was no longer paid in money and favors, and the rank and file as well as the 20,000 “Generals” started suffering hugely? A week? A day?

    People are presently inconviencenced, and scared of crime, but few are starving outright. That point has not been reached, and I hope it never is. But the public sector is in such shambles and the coffers so empty there is a critical mass fast approaching.


  2. Rafael Says:

    Elections or no elections won’t matter that much given the daring economic reality of Venezuela. That is what will determine the final outcome. And speaking of that: It looks to me that we are heading towards the final stretch. I know that this has been the subject of this blog in several occasions: How long can this government go before it throws in the towel of bankruptcy and opens the Pandora’s box of political instability and all the scary unknowns? Besides the opinions of the person responsible of this blog, many pundits from respected publications have also weighted on the unsustainable Venezuelan situation. Some predict that it will take one year before the big event, others predict that it might take longer. Could MOctavio put again on his forecaster hat and try tell us how close we are? When will we have our Argentina moment? Don’t worry about missing it. Famous economists screw up all the time and they continue to be famous. It probably boils down to simple math estimating when things will get to a truly critical state. Let’s see: Central bank Reserves + Oil income – Debt payments – The integral of the spending rate over some time horizon. When this number becomes zero or negative that is it. And no, oil won’t go up in price that much and the Chinese are starting to get leery about sending billions our way. Again, election refusals, hunger strikes and prisoners’ wives on tour won’t do it. Even if noble in intention like the last two, none of them will be directly responsible for the big changes that await Venezuela.

    • Ira Says:

      You can go into the red for billions and billions of dollars…and still stay in power.

      Just ask Fidel and Cristina!

      So while I get your point, I don’t think it’s necessarily as valid as you’re claiming.

      There’s a point where the economic conditions and suffering of the people no longer matter, and it’s all about power and control. And I think just about everyone who visits this website or is at all knowledgeable about VZ can agree:

      They reached that point long, long ago.

  3. Ira Says:

    It wouldn’t surprise me they would cynically choose December 6 (my birthday, by the way) for its symbolism.

    And of course, if Chavistas had any brains, they would have picked December 7.

    But there has to be more to pushing it so far back into the year than a plan to buy off a populace with free stuff. Can they POSSIBLY afford enough “stuff” to make that happen.

    Or it could mean nothing at all, that there backs have been against the wall for so long to declare a date, that they simply chose the latest date possible without interfering with Navidad.

    So they could figure out what the fuck to do, even if that includes refining their methods for stealing it.

    Based on past history, the latter seems more likely. They’re just kicking the can down the road, because as of today, they’re like deer caught in the headlights.

  4. Juan Largo Says:

    Word on the street is that Castro has been warned to keep his mitts off the election in Dec. or relations with the US will not normalize. And Cuba badly needs an infusion of new money, oil, etc. Anyone who has been there recently knows that European tourism is keeping the island afloat. So Venezuela might be on it’s own this time around. By the sound of Tibsey and the Bus Driver, they are already ranting about getting beat and are threatening chaos. One wonders if an outright theft of the election (when all credible pools have Maduro down in the low 20% popularity wise) would not trigger a civil war. The thought of surviving another 16 years of the revolution is bound to make people desperate. Or more so. There are limits, after all. Where are ours?

    • Ira Says:

      I don’t buy it at all.

      Maduro is even praising the recent U.S.-VZ reproachment and talks, and knowing this Obama administration (whom I voted for twice, by the way), I seriously doubt Barak is making any strong demands on Cuba regarding VZ.

      • Boludo Tejano Says:

        I seriously doubt Barak is making any strong demands on Cuba regarding VZ.
        Agreed. Though I doubt we agree on why.

    • HalfEmpty Says:

      Agreed, hard to believe. Cuber-US ties are the once and future nut. Vzla is something to tend to when time allows.

  5. Sledge Says:

    In a nutshell:

    1/ Of course, these elections will be a big Farse, again. Between the accomplished gerrymandering, missing cuadernos de votacion, all the bribing, and promises or threats and intimation, plus a little malicious tweaking the infernal Chavista lottery machines from “el Mago Smartmatic” Rodriguez, Diablodado will graciously concede a 55, or even 60% aboslutely meaningless “defeat” to the MUD. And then just bribe, threaten of fire some more.

    2/Of course the Shannon/Cabello little incident was way overblown and misinterpreted, just going by some obscure “sources” of 1 media writer.

    3/ Of course they will steal most of whatever Billions they can still get by December from the Chinese, the IMF or elsewhere. As they always do. A few refrigerators and empty mango promises won’t go far.

    4/ My favorite: “Of course, inflation could screw it all up. I hope it does”.

    Finally someone with the guts to say what I’ve been writing for months: The more inflation, escasez, colas, the better right now. That’s the only way even the remaining Chavistas enchufados might wake up. Not lack of medicine, of course, hopefully, but everything else.

    It’s only after they steal another ridiculous “elections” in a Dictatorship where there’s no separation of Powers or Justice anyway, only after they magically turn 80% disapproval into 60% or less.. AND as the Poder Adquisitivo, Escasez, Inflacion, colas, inseguridad get worse, then, Maybe, people will start to understand that they will need more hunger strikes, many, many more massive protests out in the street, and moresupervisoion than freaking “Unasur” to “accompany” Masburro’s or Cabellos’s re-election process in 2019.

  6. Sledge Says:

    Excellent points, all of them!

    In over a decade reading all the major Blogs about Cubazuela, I don’t remember agreeing more completely with an entire, long post.

  7. Dean A Nash Says:

    alejandro, things are horrible, but there’s still a lonnnngggg way to go to reach the level of Cuba. And then, the Castro’s have survived a la las cucarachas.

    Please allow me to repeat something that I’ve said many times over the past decade: Chavez et. al will NEVER relinquish power via the ballot box. All of this is a waste of time and the oppo is playing into their hands (wasting time) pretending any differently.

    • Dr. Faustus Says:

      That’s a valid point, however…
      Were there ever a time to seize the initiative on fraudulent elections, it is now. Everyone who loves Venezuela and its people should do everything in his/her power to focus the spotlight on what is going to transpire on December 6th. Work hard. Have a battle plan for every voting location. don’t overlook, …anything. Now is the time. This is the moment.

    • alejandro Says:

      There’s no question of the influence of Cuba, but I it is not as important as China and Russia. Both have investment power and don’t care about wetern values. Contrary to Cuba, Russia has a “managed democracy” and plenty of oligarchs, and China has a one party rule system with plenty of oligarchs with lots of political influence.

      Over there it might make sense to disagree but don’t to be a contrarian it is costly.

      • Dean A Nash Says:

        I have little doubt that China is going to own Venezuela lock, stock and barrel. They have something else that you failed to mention: patience. Not only that, but due to their own economic slowdown (and the subsequent collapse in world oil prices) their best play is to let Venezuela slide even further, much further. Why pick up the pieces now, at $60, when they’ll be a better steal at say, $20? They can, and will wait. As for Russia, they have their hands full right now and besides, they have all the oil that they need.

  8. alejandro Says:

    I am not going to speculate about the elections, although it is important that we have a date. It is none the less a commitment for the entire country. But things are so bad that I believe they are still too far away.

    I have reached the conclusion that a lot of people believe that you can be opposition, disagree with the regime, but don’t bet against it. An that gives a lot of freedom to act if their interests are affected. And when I mean freedom to act it can be understood in many ways. Some might say that it is fear, and it might be so for some, but it is about privilege and status.

    In order to bet against the regime you need to alter the balance of power, and that hasn’t happened yet. It might happen, but it will be a surprise, a sudden coup. The PR war is being won, the moral side of the debate has been won; but there is a need for something else, and until those privileges aren’t affected by the government itself this is for the long haul.

  9. The electronic voting system will be rigged. Forget auditing the cuadernos. The dead will vote psuv. So will hundreds of thousands who don’t show up to vote. Overseas votes don’t count. Candidates will be disqualified, jailed, or shot.

    I assume you do understand Raúl Castro is Maduro’s boss. Clean elections are the last thing on their minds. This gains them time until December. Afterwards Venezuelans go to the beach, then comes carnival, the dry season, and then it’s time to get ready to watch the Olympics on TV.

  10. HalfEmpty Says:

    a taste of revolutionary traveling
    Heh, I steal.

    Port Canaveral to Santiago by ferry, a taste of revolutionary traveling.

  11. Juan Largo Says:

    Because I have family living in Caracas.

  12. Fosforito Says:

    Can we agree that Venezuela is an orgy of BS? That makes us a bunch of peeping toms and voyeurs. Why else do we watch?

    • Humberto Says:

      Huh? We watch and care because of we have deep cultural roots, family, and many memories of good people that can make a difference. There is a Venezuela that “could be”. I am hoping that “could be” becomes “will be”.

  13. Juan Largo Says:

    I’ve been hearing the “flood the pueblo with stuff” angle all day but nobody has said where the money will come from. The Bolivar tanked. The debt is crushing. The hard currency coming in is being pilfered something fierce. They’re ain’t no stuff on the way, chamos. Nada.

    And when that bus driver gets shown the road, we’ll see the “Novela Loca” por seguro. Hard to picture how bad it will get in 5 months. Difficult to imagine the Maduro gov. even lasting that long.

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