Opposition Victory In Venezuela Was More Solid Than Sweeping

December 8, 2015

tablaTable with popular vote organized on the left alphabetically and on the right by percentage of the popular vote obtained by the opposition. I have placed a box over traditionally more pro-Chávez states where the opposition got more than the median of votes than in the Nation. (Based on last night’s percentages by CNE)

While it is easy to attempt to use the term sweeping in describing Sunday’s victory by the opposition last Sunday, a closer look at the data suggests that it was more of a solid than a sweeping victory. Solid, because what the opposition did was increase sharply its total number of votes  in the more rural States where it customarily lost badly to Chavismo, while solidifying its victory in its more traditional urban areas. Thus, it was more broad based victory in terms of total votes and a solid ground to be future strength upon.

This is not the narrative that most pollsters and politicians were telling us. We were told that it was the hyper rejection of the Government that would lead to a sweep in traditional opposition areas, which would lead to the opposition dragging rural States along and, if the victory was large enough, the possibility of a qualified majority in the National Assembly was within reach.

Instead, the opposition sharply increased its vote in Chavista States, which helped it obtain fairly uniform favorable results that gave it the 66% majority without reaching 60% of the vote.

As an example, the opposition swept all districts in 8 of the States of the country: Amazonas, Anzoategui, Aragua, Barinas, Bolivar, Merida, Nueva Esparta and Vargas. This is a remarkable result, as only one, Mérida, can be considered to be a “traditional” opposition enclave.

In fact, the pattern repeats if one looks at the top ten states in which the opposition increased its votes  the most by percentage, a rank that goes roughly like (I have ignored decimals in the ranking): Guarico, Trujillo, Vargas, Aragua, Nueva Esparta, Capital District, Bolivar, Cojedes, Falcon and Zulia. All of these States increased from +10% to +8% on Sunday in terms of total votes for the opposition with respect to the 2013 Presidential election. But the top nine are all traditional Chavista strongholds and is only when we get to Zulia we get to a State considered to be more pro-opposition in the past.

Yes, the opposition swept Tachira, but only increased its vote by 3%. Meanwhile, string opposition States like Carabobo, only went up by 4%, with Miranda and Lara, gaining 7%, solid, but not the sharp increase of Chavista strongholds.

Thus, it was a solid victory by the opposition, which only lost ground by votes in sparsely populated Delta Amacuro, which gives it the chance to sow a future if it steers well its control of the National Assembly.

It is probably premature to interpret what this all means, but I would be inclined to say that this shows that the vote was more a rejection of Chavismo and Maduro’s Governmen than one of approval for the opposition.

This also seems to imply (to me) that the Assembly should concentrate in rebuilding institutionality and not in trying to replace the current Government. The winners may not be as popular as they think they are.

 

 

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81 Responses to “Opposition Victory In Venezuela Was More Solid Than Sweeping”

  1. Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

    After the last few comments from the Chavista thugs, Cabello, Maduro, Rodriguez, etc. all we can look forward is terrible 2016 for Venezuela. Sorry to say. I will certainly not visit Caracas anytime soon.

    The Chavista thugs will be fighting for their lives. And they have demonstrated time and time again that they are nothing less than Criminals and low-class, uneducated malandros.

    What many seem to forget, is that these thugs in power, from top to bottom in the “government”, the TSJ, the police, the corrupt military, they fear for their future, even if they flee with their stolen millions anywhere in the world. They know their stolen assets could be frozen, and the DEA is after many of them.

    If some semblance of Justice is one day restored in Venezuela, this pandilla of bandidos know they will be persecuted. Susana Barreiros, Luisa Ortega, Jorge Rodriguez, Cabello, Maduro, Tarek, all of them. And many corrupt military top officials too. They are scared to death. And with good reason.

    So they will not give up power easily at all. Much less “democratically”. They will use every resource at their disposal, every PDVSA dollar to Bribe, every intimidation or violence tactic to remain in power.

    Because they know they face Jail Time, and/or loss of their stolen million$.


    • I used to live in Venezuela, and used to know (or rán into) some of the characters in this drama. What always struck me was the inability of the Venezuelan democracy loving elite to understand the nature of the hard core Chavista.

      I used to talk to them quite a bit, and my training in Cuba allowed me to use the same language and code words they use (FYI they are all Cuban trained, lack an ounce of original thought other than in areas such as drug trading and the corrupt fake company bits).

      And I concluded a long time ago that these guys would go out with a bang. I never thought Maduro would be so stupid, and I believed Raúl would be able to “take care” of Cabello. So I was wrong. I thought it would take 30 years to dump these folk. Right now I think it’s doable, but the change will require extremely heavy outside pressure.

  2. Ira Says:

    Is the princess Hugotita still living in Miraflores?

    And isn’t that something the new Assembly can easily remedy–kick the bitch out?

    Oh, this can really start to get good, especially considering Mad-uro’s today’s announcements promoting Lopez’s Judge Judy, and putting housing projects on hold as punishment for the people because they didn’t support PSUV.


  3. By the way, I’m hoping you’ll start seeing why I went ballistic when Obama copied up to Raúl Castro when he did. Establishing diplomatic relations seems ok, but all those smiles and statements which essentially endorsed disctatorship and the horrible abuses that go on.

    The Obama policy, as well as the cynical attitude or endorsement of the Cuban dictatorship by Latin American elites, is one factor which gives Maduro and Cabello the energy to copy the Castros and move towards a full dictatorship.

    Thise two are convinced that if everybody is willing to sacrifice Cubans as if we were born to be slaves, the same everybody will bless the move to make Venezuela another slave colony.

    I think by now you realize these guys are willing to do ANYTHING. They will out 500,000 Venezuelans in ovens if they think they can get away with it (remember Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Kim, & Castro). To stop them you have to play chess with extreme skill. And this includes discussing Castros role in Venezuela (military, secret police, bureaucracy, etc). You have been invaded but you cant face it?

  4. M Rubio Says:

    Two things come to mind when talking about the meaning of the vote. Firstly, with the Chavistas having virtually complete control of the country’s media, how in the world was the MUD supposed to get their message out there? Secondly, did the MUD even have a unified platform and platform? I sure never saw it.

    This was clearly a vote against the status-quo and therefore against Maduro. Again, the opposition needs to continue to pound home that Maduro is the problem and Maduro alone.

  5. Ira Says:

    It’s all good for now.

    But let’s not forget that these are the same people who brought you the coup attempt against Perez.

  6. ORLANDO A CHIOSSONE Says:

    Miguel,

    Great post. Any views on the high amount of null votes (“Votos Nulos”). They seem very high compared to the past.


  7. […] Source: Opposition Victory In Venezuela Was More Solid Than Sweeping […]

  8. Alex Says:

    Well think of it for a moment, what’s it to worry about? So Maduro likely will not go anywhere until election time, while we know he’s stuck with the “Guerra Economica” speech. Therefore, you may presume the economy will continue stuck in the doldrums and that he’ll continue losing supporters, finally tearing PSUV to shreds.
    The country used to be Chavista: (Chavismo is really the expression of “give me mo’ and I’ll vote for you”). With no surplus to give away in significant numbers -as demonstrated in this election- I think things look bleak for PSUV and friends, unless they really pull a 180!

    …And do you really, really believe PSUV will admit their model is to blame for the economic demise? Nah!

    • Ronaldo Says:

      Let Maduro stay. As long as he is in power, he will continue to take blame for the economy. It will take a great deal of pressure off of the AN.

  9. Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

    The economy is about to get even worse, naturally. The MUD will be blamed. They will be bribed, too., as always. Chavismo will reemerge. Expect an ugly mess in 2016-2017.

    • Liam mellows Says:

      Give it a rest. So when we lose, it’s bad. When we win, it’s bad.

      You predicted over and over a that the regime would only allow small mud victory. Will you admit you were wrong?

      • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

        I have admitted several times I was wrong. In writing, here.

        That does not change my entire view of the nation, where the main problems will not disappear overnight, on in many years.

        A win is a win, and I’m happy about it. But the MUD is the MUD and Cleptozuela, sorry to say, is Cleptozuela. Ask Ramos Allup.

        If you think things are suddenly be rosy and nice, and Venezuela is going to jump start Agriculture and Fishing and Tourism, think again. Many more dark years are ahead, actually even worse than what we have seen yet, after the MUD party is over.

        Or tell me how would you fix the Venezuelan economy next year. Or insecurity. It’s going to continue to be a veritable Chavista-MUDmess. Except even worse, because the money ran out.(almost, except for the last Bribes, massive embezzlements and daily Tigritos)

      • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

        BTW, did you expect the corrupt Military to interject, intercede, and stop the elections Fraud, what we saw in Brazil and Venezuela many times? That was an unpredictable, ironic, and hypocritical thing of beauty.

    • nacazo Says:

      Instead of focusing on the economy like a laser ray, the new elected are wasting efforts in stupid power plays. Talking of revocatories, constituyents, etc. The power has gone to their heads. Allup was even insulting Chavez which is super-stupid. The guy (Chavez) is dead give him a rest. I know Chavez probably deserves it but right now in public is not the moment. Mud is going to lose political capital quick. And even chavistas had to have voted for mud. I hope im wrong and we’ll see what the mud says after their meeting thursday.

      • M Rubio Says:

        Agree with the comments about insulting Chavez. Nothing to be gained there because now, in death, he’s an icon. Also, something like 80% of the voting public once supported him…..so to an extent insulting Chavez insults them.

        Make this about the economy and Maduro’s total failure to manage it…..and keep pounding that home.

    • Diocletian Says:

      I would certainly expect an ugly mess going forward. This is inevitable with the sort of Constitution and government that Venezuela has along with its internal and external context. However this is a huge step forward and has real consequences.

      I would question some of the assumptions here.

      (1) If Maduro is seen as being active, he will certainly receive some of the blame of what happens next year.

      (2) Yes some opposition members will be bribed, however I believe that the sentiment is that “the writing is on the wall”. Many of PSUV’s political supporters will decide to abandon ship as well, for either ideological and pecuniary reasons (or both).

      (3) Chavismo as a cult (like Peronism) will remain but this particular cabal (Maduro, Cabello, Flores, etc.) are gone and are not coming back even as the result of an overt military coup. Maybe somebody in Chavez’s family will return to power but the way they rule will be different (no idea if better or worse but different).

      (4) China will be a difficult issue. Right now, MUD has no authority to talk to China or to the IMF although I would imagine that they can sack the Ambassador to China and the country’s representative to the IMF. China is not stupid; Venezuela’s large debt and this puts China is a bad position BUT China can block any access to the IMF, World Bank, etc. IF it is not happy with the way Venezuela is paying them back. I imagine that this would assume the terms of the debt are actually written down in some sort of legal way AND that the debt is to the government and not to PDVSA. If it is largely to PDVSA, then the government could eventually liquidate the company and create another one and the debt would be in court for years. None of this is actually going to happen but it suggest that there is some room to negotiate.

      (5) Venezuela will soon stop giving away its oil, which will help on the margin. I understand that this is quite unpopular and if Maduro resists this, it will hurt him. Probably a lot.

      I will probably post some version of these comments later in the discussion.

      • moctavio Says:

        My only comment at this time (so much to say!) is that none of the Chinese agreements were approved by the Assembly, so that China may not be as untouchable as it seems. Going forward any new agreement has to be approved and the Assembly has a say in asking for old ones.

        • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

          Well, let’s hope the Venezuelan Nation is not Hipotecada for 30 years. You’re among the experts on such matters. But I do fear it is. The oil deals were done. On paper.

          It’s not like the Chinese are gonna say goodbye to their profits (at all levels) anytime soon. It’s like trying to reverse the Argentinian debt, or the Greek debt, pero con “otra fragancia”, as they say in Domincan Republic.

          • moctavio Says:

            With the Chonese you can always tell them, go to the bac of the line, you signed agreements which did not follow the Constitution, you should have known. We will honor the debt, but when we can.

            The problem long term is that Chavez wasted the window to truly develop the Faja and increase production. Now that becomes very difficult and altenrnative energy, fracking and the like have become an attractive in detriment to oil.

            • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

              That’s putting in nicely. The entire Chavista pandilla of thieves, by the thousands in 32 ministerios, and then some, were the architects of such massive pilferage of the entire nation for years. Including many from “el pueblo”. And that’s what no one has the guts to say.

              The levels of benefit are different, granted.

              But I digress.

              Regarding Oil, I always trust Gustavo Coronel. From my humble perspective, the price ain’t going up anytime soon, plus Venezuela’s oil is heavy and dirty, the refinacion processes or mix processes with Algerian or Nigerian oil are complicated, and the USA plants designed to work on it are half shut, for good reasons.

              Fracking and new technologies are working, big-time game-changer, worldwide. The USA will soon be on to of their game after Obama is gone. After the terrorists are cooled off. In the end it’s all about business, money, and the economy.

              Back to the Chinese, I do not trust them for a second. In general. They will get all they can get, and are much more proficient at it than Venezuelans are. They are ruthless Capitalists, disguised as socialists, rings the bell? It’s all about freaking money, sadly and unfortunately, and the Chinese will get paid.

            • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

              Next time I will double-check the lousy spelling mistakes, sorry.


            • MO, “fracking” is used to produce very light oil or gas condensate reservoirs with a surplus of light molecules. It’s also overhyped. I keep a close eye on these developments. The USA Permian basin tight rocks are very good, and we are seeing some good Vaca Muerta in Argentina, but the total potential isn’t that high for oil & condensate.

              The problem with the faja is the current reservoir management scheme. If that continues to be applied the reserves need to be cut, say divide them by 3.

        • Diocletian Says:

          Also, as I mentioned, it may debt between the PRC and PDVSA or between Chinese firms and PDVSA. Much harder to collect and could easily be tied up for years in courts. I am not sure how the international community would react to a agreement that was signed but not ratified internally. Once again, probably something that could be tied up for years.

          Key question: Can China block Venezuela’s access to credit markets and multilateral organizations while this is being worked out or litigated?

        • Diocletian Says:

          Responding to your comment below. The Framework agreement seems to be entirely between BDES and PDVSA (for Venezuela) and Chinese SOEs. The governments do not sign it. The proceeds go to a private company company established by the government to receive the money and arbitration would be held in Singapore by a group that specializes in private sector arbitration (as opposed to say, ICSID). Venezuela could easily liquidates all of these companies. It would also be easier to audit the companies than it would be to look at the government’s book.

          There is no government guarantee that I can see. The government authorizes the companies to act on its behalf of the Republic. The agreement itself is not signed by either government.

          If its OK with you, I could ask for a more professional opinion. My non-professional opinion is that China might be in trouble.

          • moctavio Says:

            The framework agreement is for payment, but the Fund is a bi-national Fund, between the two Republics. I dont think those participating in the framework. Additionally, the debt is not in PDVSA’s balance sheet either but in the Governmet’s.

            • Diocletian Says:

              The arrangement is very complicated. The fund FONDES is private, but 100% owned by the government. The Sino-Venezuela seems to be largely owned by Venezuelan SOE’s. It also appears to be registered in Singapore but I am not sure. The BCV’s annual filing with the SEC does not include the debt to China, so it is probably not sovereign debt.

              It facilitates corruption and makes auditing very difficult. But it does not make China’s life particularly easy.

  10. Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

    http://qz.com/568147/four-reasons-why-venezuelas-historic-election-upset-is-likely-to-turn-out-be-a-huge-disappointment/

    Reason #1: Galactic corruption, as always. The MUD will get muddy, Bribed, while they will start to get blamed for the past 17 years of incompetence and generalized pilferage.

    -The Economic situation is only going to get worse.
    -The “burguesitos anti-chavistas que controlan el pais will be blamed.
    -“El pueblo” is sufficiently uneducated, highly corrupted, and ignorant to believe it. They will start to miss “Comandante Eterno Pajarito Chavez” even more.

    – They voted against Maduro and Cabello, not against Chavismo. They remain Chavistas, to a large extent.

    As the Economic situation gets worse and the new Guisos take shape with the muddy mud, the fighting will continue and Chavismo will reemerge. It’s about to get real ugly in 2016.

  11. Ramon Says:

    Opposition votes have to be, by necesity, rejection of Maduro’s government. Most people don’t know or remember other than the PSUV way of doing things. And since it’s not working right now, hence the votes for the opposition.

  12. Noel Says:

    I must say i was surprised that the government accepted such defeat. My question is whether the opposition has the legal/constitutional means to make policy changes for the better, or whether they will be neutralized, thereby becoming tainted by the economic and security disasters and much weakened for the next presidential elections>

    • Diocletian Says:

      Several Spanish newspaper suggested that the Army (and even parts of the GNB!) stepped in and ordered the government to keep the elections clean. I don’t know whether to believe it.

      Live by the sword, die by sword.

      • moctavio Says:

        I understand the story is true, but the details I was told had some inconsistencies with previous facts told by the same Gov.t officials.

        • Diocletian Says:

          Got it. I hope that you can share once you feel comfortable that you have the complete story.

        • Noel Says:

          I just checked the Spanish paper ABC which reports a version of events generally along these lines. The future looks brighter Venezuela and the region.

    • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

      Chavistas are not as stupid or incompetent as they seem. They knew the situation was unsustainable. Now they can keep Stealing massive amounts for at least 2 more years, and blame everything on the Burguesitos de la derecha from the MUD.

      The Chinese are not going to forgive the Oil debt, oil prices are not going up, inflation is. The Economic measures necessary to stop the bleeding (gas price increase, no more “precios justos”, no more freebies, no more exchange controls, no more Tigritos and corruption everywhere, at all levels, willl be highly unpopular among the Chavista masses. And among the people who just voted against Maduro, but not especially For the MUD.

      The Chavistas in Power still control 2 of the 3 Branches of Government. With PDVSA money. Plus the military, still corrupt. They must be quietly celebrating that now they have another scapegoat (the pelucones capitalistas in the MUD) .

      Makes their lives a lot easier now, to continue to Steal ma$$ive amount$, until the next Presidential elections.

  13. Flor Maldonado Says:

    Algunas declaraciones dejan mucho que desear, me recuerda a Carmona, derogando todo. Debemos recordar que ganamos por los chavistas descontentos…se dieron cuenta que el país esta destruido. As you said: The winners may not be as popular as they think they are.

  14. Ronaldo Says:

    I agree with ekleins that gerrymandering backfired and led to the opposition winning some Chavista seats at minimal cost. It would not be near 112 seats without the gerrymandering.

  15. ekleins Says:

    Sorry Miguel Octavio but your map is inaccurate. For example MUD won Vargas (3-1) but not Apure (2-3), Cojedes (1-3), Portuguesa (1-5), Guárico (1-5), Trujillo (2-3) and Yaracuy (2-3), all of them classic strongholds of the chavismo. One epic defeat was Distrito Capital (8-1, west of Caracas city) were municipalities like Catia and 23 de Enero, the most violent defenders of the chavismo, voted for the opposition, However with 112 seats the control is complete and this was in part, thanks to the 2010 gerrymandering the government did to dilute the weight of the opposition in key circuits. The little increments in votes you mentioned gave the victory to the MUD in those engineered circuits.

    • moctavio Says:

      I am using total vote in the discussion, not Deputies to measure “victory”, but you are right the map is wrong on Apure. I will remove it until I get a good one.

      • moctavio Says:

        Gerrymandering played an important role, but the large increase in votes for the opposition, which was not predicted in Chavista states was very important,.

    • moctavio Says:

      I just wanted to have an illustration and had received than one, I changed it now for a table with decreasing percentages which more closely follows the discussion of my post in terms of votes and not Deputies.

  16. Carlos Says:

    Es obvio que la oposición va a aumentar más donde antes perdía, o es que puede aumentar más en el Hatillo?

    Lo único que demuestran los resultados es que votantes de Maduro/chavismo ahora votaron por la oposición.

    En democracia, la valoración de la gestión tiene que ser la principal razón para votar por alguien. Cuando hay alto desempleo se pierden las elecciones, cuando hay crisis se pierden elecciones, etc….

    La gente vota por alguien que piensa que pueda hacerlo mejor. El domingo 7.7 millones de venezolanos piensan que la oposición lo puede hacer mejor.

    Efectivamente, no hay una devoción metafísica con la oposición. Pero quién quiere repetir el mesianismo del chavismo?

    • moctavio Says:

      No es tan obvio. Las encuestas indicaban que en algunos estados podria llegar a 70% de los votos, lo cual no ocurrio, son embargo, en todos esos estados chavistas que mencione, llego a valores que nadie esperaba. Por ejemplo: Bolivar 59.63%, comparable con Miranda!!! Anzoategui sacó mas que Lara, pero no decimales , 5% mas! En Barinas sacamos mayor porcentaje que en Carabobo!

    • nacazo Says:

      Well I didn’t mean “elite” in a pejorative way. But I doubt moctavio makes a “cola”. He has made enough to travel around the world and more power to him. What I was trying to communicate is that there are people suffering out there. It’s great that the voting trends when compared with previous votes demonstrates whatever but in all these ivory tower analyses sometimes is lost that nothing is gained by sinking Venezuela and then blaming Maduro for it. A fight to determine who has bigger balls doesn’t fix any economy problem and all those people that are giving a chance to the MUD don’t have eternal patience. IF the economy gets fixed, who cares if you have a president talking “baba” in 300 cadenas until the end of his term. Everyone knows he wasn’t able to fix the problems.Yea i know some in the MUD are thirsting for blood but you don’t want to make a martyr out of maduro either. WE need serious leaders not kindergarden fighters.

  17. Ed Says:

    Hmmm ….I don’t know that. I think they should work in parallel to oust +burro and recover the institutions. ….what could happen if things get better and that benefits Maduro and not the opposition? It is far fetched, but possible. …

    • moctavio Says:

      There is little the Assembly can do on economic matters directly. A recall vote can wait (I think) let Maduro make tough decisions.

      • Dr. Faustus Says:

        That’s a very important point, “the recall vote can wait.” It can indeed. I very much agree with your point of view here. Napoleon Bonaparte, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” Just stand and watch.

      • nacazo Says:

        moctavio: why couldn’t they eliminate the “fair price law”? or the multi-currency rates?

      • Getashrink Says:

        Well, but you can’t let all of 2016 pass by if you are gonna call for a referendum at all. According to the Constitution, after four years, if the president is removed, the vice-president finishes.

        Besides, I don’t understand what you mean by “let Maduro make tough decisions”. He has been avoiding those decisions since he took power, and will probably continue to do so. Is that really what we want? Many of those decisions are urgent, you know…

        • moctavio Says:

          You have 12 months starting in April to call it, you can wait till September and work first on other matters.

          If Maduro does not make any decisions, things will get worse, not better. That would b his problem.

          • nacazo Says:

            this is the problem with the venezuelan elite (obviously moctavio is one). They want to sink Maduro and Venezuela with him and in the mean time the low classes will suffer as hell. What the new assembly people should do is negotiate with the president what is best for Venezuela. Something along the lines of we will let you stay in power until the end of your term and in return you (Maduro) will issue and amnesty for political prisoners (will make you look good for Christmans Mr. President). And you will accept our economic reforms (no “fair price law”, free currency exchange. increment price of gas…. whatever). You can criticize all you want Mr. President but let us try something different. If we fail you can kill us in a cadena (or 300) but give us a chance to try something else. Obviously ANYTHING will work better so maybe Maduro will not go along but at least they should try because A LOT of Chavistas voted for the MUD. IF Maduro doesn’t play along then yes, revocatory, get him out but something needs to be done about the economy, yesterday even in the lame duck session.

            • Dean A Nash Says:

              nacazo, the second half of your comments are words taken right out of my mind. If there is a scintilla of rationality in Maduro, then a deal is to be had. Your reasoning there is flawless, with that one caveat. (It’s possible he’s completely delusional, being surrounded by sycophants and all.)

              As to Miguel’s status as an ‘elite’, this would depend on your definition. If you mean “top educated”, I concur. If you mean “powerful”, well, caveat emptor with regards to what you smoke. And if you meant “lucky SOB”, well, I think that all of us posting here, with a rare outlier, are.

              Miguel, would Maduro deal?

            • moctavio Says:

              It is not a matter of sinking Maduro, the Assembly does little for the economy, it can change certain laws, approve the budget, but it does not do things like fix the price of gas or determine foreign exchange policy.

              My point is that it would be suicidal with a one Deputy qualified majority to try to recall Maduro. The opposition has to be constructive, it does not run the country via the AN, as long as Maduro is President, it cant do much about the main distortions of the economy.

              (Repost your comment for Dean, then I will erase the old one)

            • nacazo Says:

              for some reason i dont see a reply to Dean A. Nash so i will reply here?

              Well I didn’t mean “elite” in a pejorative way. But I doubt moctavio makes a “cola”. He has made enough to travel around the world and more power to him. What I was trying to communicate is that there are people suffering out there. It’s great that the voting trends when compared with previous votes demonstrates whatever but in all these ivory tower analyses sometimes is lost that nothing is gained by sinking Venezuela and then blaming Maduro for it. A fight to determine who has bigger balls doesn’t fix any economy problem and all those people that are giving a chance to the MUD don’t have eternal patience. IF the economy gets fixed, who cares if you have a president talking “baba” in 300 cadenas until the end of his term. Everyone knows he wasn’t able to fix the problems.Yea i know some in the MUD are thirsting for blood but you don’t want to make a martyr out of maduro either. WE need serious leaders not kindergarden fighters.

          • Iguana Master 7000 Says:

            The problem with your thinking, nacazo, is that you assume that Maduro & Co. are rational, thinking folks.

            These people are not capable of this.


            • I’m putting my 2 cents in the ring here, at the end of the day, its going to be tough for the typical venezuelans, it doesnt matter if Maduro is in there or an opposition president, remember oil prices is 50% less than last year, whatever reforms that will be made or suggested will be painful, I think the point here is, we assume the national assembly will try to suggest measures to Maduro, who more than likely wont do anything, like he has already, and the entire system will implode, as there will be less and less liquid foreign currency to buy cosas basico to give away for free… (practically) what the national assembly should start doing in my opinion, is start finding ways to jump start local productions, as there shouldnt ever be a shortage of food in venezuela with all their natural resources….. at least in terms of food…. remember back in the day venezuela sustained itself, and exported….

            • Dean A Nash Says:

              My thoughts were, “what does Maduro have to lose by dealing?” If he allows the AN to raise the price of gasoline, liberate prices, etc… and things don’t improve, he can point to his own “magnanimity” and perhaps win more votes. At the least, he could argue that he and the country gave the opposition way a fair chance and it failed. On the other hand, should things improve, he can also credit his magnanimity in accepting reality and changing (see: Communist Party of China). Furthermore, he can argue that giving absolute control to the opposition would take the country back to the days of AD/Copei, and really, who wants that?

              Miguel, I’m ALWAYS interested in your learned opinions. If you have the time, why won’t this work? If the answer is, as the Iguana says (irrationality), don’t bother commenting. I get it.

  18. Diocletian Says:

    Two questions. Is there any idea of the number of voters for each camp? Any comments on the articles in several Spanish newspapers about the the role that the military may have taken in preventing pro-regime cheating?

    • moctavio Says:

      Opposition got like 58% total versus 40% more or less. Some 2 million votes differences

      • Diocletian Says:

        OK. So about 7.3 million vs. 5.3 million. I guess it would be safe to give the Opposition a bit more due to ghost voters and people voting out of fear. Is there a site where this information is available by state for the different elections (this election, the last NA election, Maduro’s election, etc.).


  19. Excellent post. Congratulations!!

    • Andrea Says:

      I agree: excellent post. And congratulations also to the Venezuelan people for the lesson of democracy given to the world.

  20. moctavio Says:

    Its % each time relative to the turnout, which I think is valid. Turnout wa salso different state by state.

  21. Ira Says:

    But are the interpretations of % increases valid, considering a 76% overall turnout, compared to 66% (I think) last time?

  22. TV Says:

    The assumption here is that the results announced represent the views of the public. Between institutional propaganda at all levels and a likelihood of fair amounts of cheating in rural areas, that is, at best, doubtful.

    But yes, rebuilding the institutionality should take priority – for many reasons, including what you noted.

    • moctavio Says:

      That is correct, the vote was not fair, there was fear, pressures, media imbalance and the like. That is also an area the AN should work on and improve with fairly easy steps.

      • TV Says:

        This is probably the area where the opposition would score the most points, at home and abroad. It’s entirely uncontroversial.

  23. RobertoN Says:

    The question I am having a hard time finding an answer to is whether or not Godgiven Hair was elected. Do you know, MO ?

    • moctavio Says:

      Yes, he was.

      • RobertoN Says:

        Damn. Well , at least he won’t be president of the Assembly!

        • Gustavo Says:

          Vamos a hablar espanol. Senores Dios Bendiga a Venezuela y a todos los venezolanos dentro y fuera de Venezuela que pudieron hacer esto posible y la posicion de los altos militares en no seguir matando hermanos. El camino no es facil, la gente esta desesperada por que las cosas mejoren, pero llevara tiempo reconstruir los que estos malvados destruyeron, robaron y entregraron a otros paises de America Latina para fomentar el apoyo que ellos necesitaban. Que pasara con Diosdado Cabello, se refugiara en Cuba? no creo que alli lo quieran. Como dijo una vez en television Rafael Poleo: el negocio de Estados Unidos con Cuba es que Cuba va a entregar a Venezuela, no la va a seguir apoyando. Y creo que estaba muy cierto. De nuevo Dios los bendiga y les de la luz de seguir adelante. Los cubanos estamos celebrando sus conquistas. Gus Gonzalez


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