The Devil's Excrement

In yet another flip-flop and about face in policy, Hugo Chavez called
today for the FARC guerrillas to give up their fight after forty years
of death and destruction in Colombia. Chavez’ statement represent a
remarkable shift in policy by  the Venezuelan President who enraged
many in the region, including Colombia’s Government, by asking last
Fall that the FARC be recognized as a “legitimate insurgent force”.
Moreover, the Venezuelan President called on the FARC to give up all of
the hostages in their hands in exchange for…

Nothing.

After months of trying to negotiate that the Colombian Government clear
an area of that country for the rebels in exchange for a handful of
hostages.

This represents a remarkable about face which closes Chavez’ attempt to
get recognition by negotiating with the FARC the release of the
hostages, which in the end turned out to be not only a gigantic
failure, but seems to have been used by the Colombian Government to
track down and destroy the main leaders of the guerilla movement, as
barely three of the hostages have been released and Ingrid Betancourt
remains in captivity.

For Chavez it is a risky call, likely driven by the content of Reyes’
computer. Risky, because the FARC seems to be in disarray and it is
likely that it will be difficult to achieve a consensus on Chavez’
request. But he could come out of all this smelling better if
Betancourt is finally liberated.

Chavez involved himself in the FARC/hostage negotiations thinking that
it may lead to the Nobel Peace Prize, but he underestimated Uribe’s
understanding of the FARC and his determination to destroy the group.
Meanwhile, the FARC has always had a convergent but parallel agenda to
Chavez and never trusted him completely instead using him for their own
purposes. This led to many failures and few rewards for Chavez as Uribe
stood back and used the extra noise surrounding Chavez’ negotiations to
track down the FARC leaders.

The flip flop represents the fourth one in one week, as Chavez seems to
be using polls and Reyes’ computers to redefine himself in surprising
fashion. As Pedro Mario Burelli said, Chavez seems to be running away
at full speed from Hugo Chavez in a sign that he is worried about his
standing, both nationally and internationally.

Internationally, it is hard to believe that the information in Reyes
computer will not come out to tell us the true story of Chavez’ tight
realtionship with the FARC. Nationally, it may hold back Chavez in
terms of what Bills he may enact under the umbrella of the Enabling
Bill that expires in mid July. Most likely, Chavez will look for the
National Assembly to extend that Law, so that he can use it to push his personal political project after the November elections.

It is part of the clueless nature of this fake
revolution that after a Bill is conceived, drafted and executed by Hugo
Chavez under the umbrella of the Enabling Bill, his servile collaborators
all defend the Bill, telling us in grandiose and pompous words why it was
necessary and indispensable and how the law does not violate the rights of
anybody.

But can you get anymore bizarre than the autocrat himself
coming out and saying he can not defend the undefensible…

Can they
be any more incompetent and inefficient than that?

I mean, who wrote the Bill? Why did Chavez sign it into Law? Or even, did he sign into Law or is he
so far removed from the day to day operations of Government that some of
his close collaborators wrote it and executed without his
knowledge?

And after none other than his Minister of Justice
defended the Bill, Chavez comes out and says “The Law is bad…we made a
mistake”

To say nothing of the blind and dumb followers who
attempted to convince their readers (if any) that the Bills was necessary and had
merits and how the stupid opposition human rights defenders, bloggers and
the like were utterly lost in the face of the wisdom emanated from the
Bolivarian Presidential Palace.

Can they be more stupid than that?

It
now seems to be that my thinking and that of my fellow bloggers,
politicians and writers is closer to Chavez’ thinking than the stupid
Chavista herd, who hails, follows and defends anything the autocrat may say
and suggest.

And they have have never looked as stupid and empty
headed as today, proving how idiotic their worship of the fake
revolutionary is.

Because the oxymoronic “intelligence” Bill in the
end simply shows the lack of intellectual depth and consistency of the
stupid Bolivarian revolution, which ten years after being in power is still
searching for definition and direction and bows under the pressure and
criticism of national and international opinion.

Because nothing
seems to be going well for it lately. From the capitalistic decision to charge for
broadcasting the revolutions messiah, to lowering public transportation
fares, to the intelligence Bill, everything is labeled an error, not by us
in the opposition, but by the creators of the ideas.

Sadly, it is
not that they have changed their minds, but it is simply that after ten
years in powers the same brainless and superficial yes men surround an Hugo
Chavez looking for direction, but reacting to every flip and flop of his
dwindling popularity. Meanwhile his supporters act like the deaf and dumb
pinball wizards of yesteryear, cheering the verbosity and errors of the
autocrat, acting like the religious fanatics they have become.

So
now we have a commission to review the new intelligence Bill, for which
there was no commission, or discussion as established in Article 211 of the
Bolivarian Constitution, which calls for the citizens to be consulted in
the process of creation of formation of laws.

But in the end the
truth is that Chavez believes in neither the representative democracy that
he has spent so much time destroying, nor the participative democracy that
he spends all his time ignoring.
Because once again, he shows that
he only believes in Hugo Chavez and whatever his whims and desires may be
on any giving day.

Even if he changes his mind the next day, calling
it an error. In fact, the whole revolution is just a gigantic error, which
has troubles getting even the most basic things right.

The Head of the Venezuelan Intelligence Police
(DISIP), in the face of the outcry over the new “intelligence” Bill issued
by the Chavez thuggish Government, defended the Bill and its provisions
that force Venezuelans to become informants, using this wonderful argument
which reveals how this guy’s brain has no concept of what a democracy is
and I quote word by word this jerk’s words:

“Rangel Silva (The Head
of DISIP) disqualified those that say the Law will create “informers”,
because, according to him, DISIP already has a wide network of
collaborators that informs it, among other things, of everything candidates
do, both pro-Chavez and opposition”

There you have it imbecile
PSF’s, try to defend that one!

I am still traveling but friends always keep me informed of
the most up to the minute news.

You have to love it when the
Minister of Interior and Justice in charge of police and on the enforcement
of the new “intelligence” Bill is called a thug by Investors Business Daily
(), however IBD will never have to buy a used car
from the man anyway.

But when old reliable Der Spiegel tells us that
the FARC thinks that Rodriguez Chacin is a “real badass” that was
seeking such “humanitarian” and “caring” aid aid from the FARC such
as explosives, ambushes and the like, it really makes you proud to be part
of this glorious country with such a gentle and generous Government
()

Acc
ording to Der Spiegel:

The interior minister — described by FARC as
“a real badass” — was
apparently so impressed by the guerillas that he asked them for
assistance in training Venezuelan militias. “Rodríguez Chacín asked
about possible ways in which we could share our knowledge of guerilla
war,” Marquez wrote on Nov. 14, 2007 in an e-mail to Reyes. According
to the message, the Venezuelans were seeking information about “modes
of operation, explosives, camps in the jungle, preparing ambushes,
logistics and mobility … Everything that would be required to react
appropriately to a US invasion.”

What is never clear is if these
techniques were being sought to fight the outrageous crime levels the
Chavez Government has allowed in Venezuela, or to have the Chavez
Government fight its own citizens some day.

Hope we never find
out.

It is
perhaps symbolic of this Government that while crime in the country is
reaching civil war proportions at around 40 homicides per day, the
Government is more concerned at trying to turn Venezuelans into informers
and collaborators in order to protect the country’s “sovereignty” and
“integrity”. Who cares if crime is a problem if they have their own war to
fight?

Which at the end of the day are empty words from a Government
that lets Cuban intelligence officers run the country’s intelligence
services and turn over identification technologies to a foreign Government
(Cuba). Or that buys debt from foreign country’s, gives aid to others while
Venezuela’s health care system is falling apart together with its
citizens.

Because in the end these guys like Chavez or Minister of
the Interior and Justice Chacin, seem to be like boy soldiers, playing at
spy games, war games and whatever other neurotic fantasy drove them to the
military 30 years ago and to the feverish and useless adventure they have
embarked our poor country on.

So, Venezuelans are now supposed to
become “support” elements in this war to protect our secrets and defend our
sovereignty from the war that the US Government secretly and silently
declared on these clowns that pretend to run our country. If you don’t
participate in “supporting”, you can go to jail for two to four
years.

I can already hear the idiotic supporters of the revolution
suggesting that Venezuelans are not patriotic and we are making much ado
about nothing, but that explanation is wearing out. How the these people
claim to be “leftwing” but have a total disregard for human rights and the
abuse of laws by Governments is a mystery that I hope to have some PSF
explain to me some day.
Unfortunately, the clowns are using our own
money to control and destroy the country. No matter how ineffective and
inefficient they may be, they somehow manage to screw us at every step.
Last weekend we saw an electoral process paid and financed by the
Venezuelan people so that PSUV could go through its democratic farce, while
the Head of the CNE Tibisay Lucena, a pubic servant also paid by us, gave
us periodic reports as to how well that political party’s primary was
going. Of course, we are still waiting for the third report from December’s
referendum, but Ms. Lucena seems to have more important things to do.

Of course, Chavez says that anyone criticizing the new law
intelligence law is a de facto Bush supporter, the same way he views that
anyone not in favor of his favorite baseball team is his enemy. It is as
simplistic as that at the end of the day.

But while most worry
about the fact that we have all become “supporting” elements of the
Government’s intelligence service, it seems more significant to be
concerned about the fact that prosecutors and judges have to cooperate with
intelligence services. Isn’t that sweet? You want to get rid of a judge
because he is inconvenient to the Government? Simple, ask him to
cooperate!

Of course, in the end, the “intelligence” services will
just have their name changed, like 98% of the country’s institutions in the
last ten years, some of which have had their name changed even three times,
to no avail. The law will only be used and abused inefficiently in
selective cases that are of interest to the Government, like the Land Bill,
and will in the end simply become another stumbling block to getting
anything done in Venezuela.

In the last two days, I made two posts in which I expressed my concerns about what I perceive are problems going forward for the so called opposition in Venezuela.

The first one is the fact that everywhere I go, it seems like a given that somehow, the opposition will win some 10-14 Governorships independent of what Chavez may or not do, the second is that so far, the opposition has raised only extremely parochial issues which are clearly not grabbing the imagination of the people and despite the hard work of many, the local message is not  playing through and we face very important issues that need to be faced.

At the end of the day in some sense what I am saying is that the opposition did not win nthe referendum, Chavez lost and the poll from Datanalisis shows it.

I believe, for example, that the opposition has handled relatively well the choosing of candidates, in my mind the Chacao race, the only one that some rarified noise, is essentially irrelevant in the larger scheme of things. However, I am not sure the message is getting through that this is not an easy process and people are watching the irrelevant parts and Chavez’ PSUV is only doing something worse than the opposition to those that have followed the details.

Because in the end I am not saying that people are not working hard, what I am saying is that the message is not getting through and the students by focusing yesterday on five demands to the National Assembly were much more effective than all of the opposition candidates in the last two months.

And I stand by what I said.

Because I am not even saying that the candidates to Mayor, for example, have to talk about economic issues or the Enabling Bill, but I do believe parties could have, for example, non-candidates that constantly speak on these same issues.

And if someone tells me  that it is hard to get on the papers or TV, then I must live in a different country, because I find the media hungry for interviews or articles with people that have something interesting to say.

I am not demanding that the opposition make a political project overnight, all I am saying is that they should make a list of the three or four more damaging or dangerous things that the Chavez Government is doing and appoint spokesmen for each and start hitting the media on them.

To me, this is not so difficult to do. This would be my list of the four topics that I would dwell on, day after day with all we have:

–Crime, it is the number one problem for people, it is a disgrace what this Government has done. This has actually been addressed fairly well, but as Rodriguez Chacin says things are improving, they are not. Blast him!

–Attack the nationalization of Sidor, Cemex, Larafge, Holderbank, CANTV and Electricidad de Caracas. The last two are already showing the signs of Government managing, but you can also attack why the money is spent on non-issues rather than in solving people’s problems.

–I believe the Enabling Bill represents the biggest threat to our freedom and economic system since the Constitutional reform was proposed, attack it. Ask what is the Government hiding.

–The recent resolution to force banks to sell their structured notes denominated in local currency is simply attacking the consequence of bad policies. But in itself it may be bad policy again as it may create a financial crisis. the Government does not appear to even get it. Blast them!

–Continue to attack the Comptrollers ban on candidates, the Constitution is the Constitution, defend it.

If I can come up with my five, you would think two or three parties together could find the top five and organize themselves around it.

Because in the end, if the opposition can’t reach the people, Chavez with all his money will and we will not be able to blame anyone but ourselves.

While everyone seems to think that it will be clear sailing
from here until the November elections, I have been worried by the fact that
the Enabling Bill, giving Chavez extraordinary powers in all matters, expires
around mid-July. (I am not sure precisely on what day it was enacted)

While opposition candidates have been going around talking
about local issues and jockeying for position so that they can show up
prominently in the polls that will select the candidates, I have worried about
this issue a lot. Worried, because last time Chavez had an Enabling Bill in
2000, he came up with 42 controversial Bills, including the Land Bill, at the
last minute, which became the rallying point for the opposition to his
Government. Unfortunately, those Bills were presented with ten days left in the
Enabling Bill, without any discussion, and most of them became the rule of law
to this day.

Much like in the year 2000, the Government has said little a
about the couple of dozen Bills that will be magically presented to us before
mid-July. There will be little discussion, we have seen the movie before, but
what we will see will help Chavez do what he was unable to do in the referendum
he lost in December.

Unfortunately, this time the Bill will go beyond the
economic arena, as once again Chavez violated the laws by including
non-economic matters in the Bill. But we do know that he intends to change the
Commercial Code, which regulates private companies in Venezuela, because in
Chavez’ words: “it is too old”. We are likely to see changes in the Banking
Bill and who knows how many other laws.

I worry about it, because only the paranoid survive, but I
must say that I was very happy to hear the university students go
to the National Assembly today and ask that the Assembly do not extend
Chavez’ rights under the Enabling Bill. It may not happen, but at least someone
is worrying about this issue lost in the frenzy of the campaign for local
positions.

You see, apparently Chavez wants to extend the period of the
Enabling Bill for six months, so that he can issue his secret “package” of
Bills after the November regional elections and not create a controversy now.
Which only goes to show that , once again, Chavez has something to hide from
the “people” that he claims to rule for and so dearly love.

Time is running out for the Assembly to give Chavez an
extension, but the students have proven to be much more foresighted than the
opposition, putting the Enabling Bill on the headlines and attempting to send
the message that there is at least one important opinion group that will not
put up with arbitrary new Bills that violate both the spirit and the letter of
the results of the December referendum.

I am still trying to make sense of the most recent poll by
Datanalisis. All I have seen is
what El Universal published yesterday, but the message as far as the data
available there seems to be that the Venezuelan electorate is looking for
someone and has yet to find it.

It certainly does not give much comfort to see that when
people are asked whether they are pro-Government, opposition or neither, 27.6%
still say they are pro-Chavez, only 18.7% say they are pro-opposition and a
huge 46% of the people polled say they are neither. And if I am reading the
poll correctly, the people in this 46% later prove they are neither in their
answers to other questions.

Some may be happy about the fact that Chavez’ popularity has
never been as low as the current level since 2003, when it reached 23.6%, but
lately I have been unnerved by the oppositions cavalier assumption that they
will be the recipients of Chavez’ loss of popularity and the numbers seem to
bear me out.

Because the opposition has barely gone up either at a scant
18.7% of the popular support (7.7% did not answer) and when one examines the
other questions presented by El Universal, it is clear that those in the middle
support neither and while they disagree with Chavez’ positions, they also
disagree with what some may consider to be anti-Chavez positions, to wit:

—When asked whether they agreed with a socialist
educational system, 66.4% of those that support neither side said they were
against it, a clearly anti-Government position. But when the same group was
asked whether they thought the Venezuelan Government collaborated with the
FARC, 61% of those that support neither side disagreed with this, clearly
showing a position much different than what many in the opposition believe,
showing that the Government’s explanations have satisfied many. In fact, 24% of
those that consider themselves opposition believe that Chavez’ Government has
not collaborated with the FARC.

—Similarly, a full 28.6% of those that support neither
side would agree with shutting down Globovision, something people in the
opposition would abhor. At the same time Chavez can’t feel great about the fact
that 76.4% of those that support neither side do not believe the FARC should be
recognized as a political movement and not as a terrorist group.

Thus, people seem to be looking for leadership and while
rejection to Chavez’ is stronger, it is no sure bet that they ill automatically
turn over their preference to the opposition candidates as many seem to think.

Perhaps the only comforting number in the whole poll is that
a full 30% of the people blame Chavez for our current problems and barely 5%
blame the opposition.

In looking at all these numbers one has to remember that not
only did Chavez lose the December referendum, but during the first four months
of the year he has brought about a new and more conservative economic policy
where growth has been sacrificed in order to contain inflation. Clearly, this
policy can not be very popular and it seems it would be a given that Government
spending will increase sharply in the second half of the year. With oil (WTI)
flirting with US$ 130 a barrel, Chavez certainly has the ability to generate a
lot of positive goodwill among the voters.

It happened in 2003 and it may certainly happen again
particularly if the opposition minimizes the ability of Chavez and his
Government to turn his popularity around.

Businessweek has an article about us adorable Venezuelans and our cheap gas.

The article contradicts itself by first saying it is not easy to increase the price of gas, but then tells us how a very unpopular President, Rafael Caldera, did it in 1996. The article relates it to ending the monopoly on gas distribution, but the price increases actually came later.

The article also says that it was public criticism that stopped Chavez from increasing the price of gas. As far as I know, Chavez mentioned it once and never brought up again, maybe because of a poll said it was not popular.

At US$ 11 billion of subsidy every year, offer every Venezuelan Bs. one million per year to compensate the price increase and if Chavez can’t sell that to the “people” he is not the snake charmer we all think he is.

The gasoline subsidy is a very regressive one, its impact being stronger the better to do you are. On top of that, it has wrecked havoc with traffic and the number one subsidy of official dollars last year did not go for food, but you guessed it, it went to give foreign currency to the auto industry.

Of course, no politician will ever make this a campaign issue, they are as adorable as all of us, gas-subsidy-loving Venezuelans.

(Don’t miss the slide show at the end of the article, Iran follows us at 40 cents a gallon and most Gulf States at twice that, but remember, the 12 cents is calculated at the official rate of exchange!)

Today is the one year Anniversary of the illegal and arbitrary shutdown
of TV station RCTV by the Chavez Government. The act was very costly
for Chavez as it not only showed his true colors to the world, but it
also upset his own supporters when he removed one of the few sources of
entertainment they had.

While foolish and imbecile pro-Chavez supporters still attempt to
defend the decision, the truth is that Chavez trampled all over the
country’s laws with that despicable act. Not only did he appoint
himself as telecom regulator, but he had the Courts take over and
confiscate RCTV’s equipment, which has received no compensation.

The equipment was given to the Government (surprise, surprise!) and so
was the broadcast frequency owned by RCTV. Chavez and his cheerleaders
claimed that the new Government channel, named TVES would easily
replace RCTV, but to this day, TVES has less than 2% of the viewer
rating, dismally below what RCTV used to have.

At the same time, the decision has been a windfall for cable and
satellite TV companies as the less affluent have gone to theses systems
and at least in the case of Direct TV, RCTV has become the number one
program, even if the company still loses money.

Because what the Government has really done is not only to restrict
free speech by illegally shutting down RCTV, but to increase its
control over all media. Venevision has become bland and neutral for
fear of being shut down. And VTV has become the voice of Chavez’ PSUV
party. Not only does it broadcast Chavez speeches and programs, but it
simply DOES NOT broadcast any opposing view to the Government. VTV used
to be the Government’s TV station, but it never was the party’s TV
station.

Last week, a woman that claims to be a reporter, Vanessa Davies, but is
now a member of the Board of Chavez’ party PSUV , announced on her TV
program on TV, that viewers would have the chance to be presented and
“debate” on VTV their positions. Funny how Ms. Davies, a one time human
rights defender and denouncer, can now “forget” that to have a debate
you need two sides. Because no opposition figure can dare ask for time
on VTV, it is just not done, while Globovision does show what VTV is
saying and interviews pro-Government politicians and Government
spokesmen.

But Ms. Davies will one day find out what “reporters” found in the
former Soviet Union, that it is not as easy to switch positions when
the house comes crumbling down and that those whose rights have been
abused and denied, tend to have very long memories.

And there are just too many of us…