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The Idiot (Anonymous)

December 11, 2007

Somebody sent me this, telling me it was published in a newspaper in Argentina. It was too good not to translate and reproduce in Spanish too, even if it contains the forbidden B.. word a few times. If anyone knows the source, would love to give credit where credit is definitely due.

The Idiot (Anonymous)

Not anyone
is an idiot Sir. You need vocation and training. No matter what the packaging.
Because there are different classes of idiots: The invisible ones and the
flashy ones. Those that are odorless and those that stink. The tasteless ones
and the ones too rich to eat. There are idiots with cap and gown and idiots
with boots. There are idiots of recent harvest and aged idiots. There are
idiots by conviction and idiots of convenience.

Any idiot,
however has his basic equipment: a series of peculiar features, which define
them and separate them from the rest of the species. The typical idiot, for
example, does not distinguish colors or shades. He sees the world in black and
white. He fills his speeches with dichotomies. Poor and rich. Patriots and
lackeys of the empire. Good and bad. Capitalism and socialism. Bush and the
other one. The idiot practices self-denial. He thinks he manipulates others and
others use him. They put him up, for example, to insult the gringo in a far
away land, while the host turns his crossed eyes to wash his hands. Or an
illiterate President, stuffed in his poncho, organizes for him an act of
adulation to empty his purse while he speaks.

The idiot
does not know what he is saying. He uses his tongue, but not his brain. He pays
homage to slogans. He calls to create one, two, three Vietnams, without remembering the suffering that
one Vietnam
gave the world. Or he shouts with all his lungs: “Fatherland, Socialism or
Death” as alternative options for the future. Like a threat waved at the four
winds, that leaves no room for those that believe in humanity, freedom and
life.

The idiot
does not know arithmetic. He looks at himself in the mirror and shouts: There
are two of us! The idiot, in fact, associates his country with three small and
poor countries and believes the Empire is trembling. Venezuelan, Cuba, Bolivia
and Nicaragua
have embarked in that little adventure called ALBA. Together they add up to 50
million inhabitants. Half of what Mexico has. A fourth of Brazil’s the
sixth part of the population f the Empire. Bush has not even noticed that ALBA
breathes.

The idiot
does not know that others can see. He chases the man of his dreams (if Bush did
not exist, he would invent him) throughout Latin America
and later says it is the other one that is looking for him. He stages a show in
a Buenos Aires
barrio and then goes to sleep at the Sheraton.

The idiot does not have political identity. In Argentina he proclaimed he
was Bolivar‘s, San Martin’s and Tupac Amaru’s, Che Guevara’s and Peron’s son.
In Peru
Velasco’s. In Nicaragua,
Sandino’s son. In China Mao’s. That mixture of such dissimilar parents is
perhaps responsible for the ideological disorder that the poor idiot carries
between wart and forehead.

The idiot
prefers uniform things. He is afraid of diversity. That is why he wants a
unique party where everyone pleases his every whim. And a unique thinking that
avoids the itching of dissidence. And a unique and eternal leader, whose finger
will decided the course of the country. The idiot assumes no responsibilities.
It is always someone else’s fault. Of neoliberalism. Of the oligarchy. Of the
media. Even of his Ministers. He is an expert on washing his hands.

The idiot
thinks he is great because others applaud him. The idiot things he is a steel
tiger. The idiot does not know that steel also melts.

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As Chavez travels abroad, a great decision by his administration to allow the price of milk to be determined by market forces

December 10, 2007

Only yesterday the Minister of Feeding Rafael Oropeza was blaming the milk shortages
on the private sector as the Government’s Mercal supermarkets were not
capable of satisfying the gigantic demand for milk as lines formed all
day and many had to be turned away without the now precious liquid. The
Minister criticized that milk producers were not investing to produce
more milk and even worse, were using a large fraction of the milk to
make cheese. Why? Easy, because milk prices are regulated, but not all
cheeses are, thus milk producers choose to make what gives them the
higher return.

A couple of years ago, the
reaction by the Chavez administration may have been to simply regulate
all cheese prices in that perverse thinking that has dominated Chavismo
for the last nine years.

But today, in a
decision that I praise and that completely and absolutely surprises me,
the Chavez administration recognize the importance of market forces and
rather than keep tinkering with the system, it announced the absolute and total deregulation of the UHT milk in Venezuela.

I
can’t even begin to describe how significant this decision is. For the
first time in years, The Chavez administration in the face of a problem
that I am absolutely sure had a strong impact on the referendum vote,
rather than inventing more controls or untried solutions went for what
economic logic suggests: let the price float and allow the people to
have as much milk as they want.

And you can be
sure than in a few weeks this will be the case, as producers and
importers will now be able to allow supply and demand to establish
prices and not be under the total regulation of the Government.

I not only congratulate the Government on the decision, but I also hope that it is the first of many like it.

What
is most intriguing after the attacks by Minister Oropeza on the private
sector during the last week, what changed in the government to decide
on such a different strategy all of a sudden? Was Chavez in the know?
Who recommended it? Is this part of a new strategy given the strong
impact on the votes in the referendum the shortages had? After all,
like an analyst suggested this weekend, the best strategy for Chavez
now would be for him to start governing, but if Chavez began to govern,
he will not be Chavez…

Chavez was certainly
taking some distance from the decision, as he is away at the swearing
in ceremony’s for Argentina’s new President, where is once again
devoting his time to international politics. He announced a summit for
Petrocaribe next week in Havana and just when he was being praised for purposely not touching upon the subject of the negotiations with the Colombian guerrillas, he comes out and says that his pact with guerilla leader Marulanad was almost ready, a little exaggeration given that Marulanda never even provided Chávez with evidence that any of the captives were still alive.

So,
while Chavez continues to enjoy the limelight provided by the
international stage, albeit surprising, a decision is made by his
administration to solve a problem that affects real people and we
certainly hope that it will be the first of many.

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As exchange controls create distortions, the Government imposes more controls in Venezuela

December 9, 2007

Every single
exchange control regime in Venezuela’s history has ended badly. By
having these controls in place, Governments delay making tough
decisions and things get so stretched that by the time realistic
policies are implemented, the price the population has to pay for the
mismanagement is huge.
 
The current exchange
control is no different. We have seen many people become millionaires
off it. Like those that had bankrupt companies that miraculously
recovered thanks to the Government recognizing their foreign debt at
the official exchange rate Or those that brought empty containers for
which foreign currency was approved but only air was actually imported.
And, of course, there are those that act as intermediaries and make
huge commissions every time CADIVI, the foreign exchange control
office, approves something for someone. Many indeed have made large
fortunes out of it since 2003.
 
There are also,
of course, the shortages. As the Government requires more and more
paperwork and authorizations, imports don’t flow well. This is part of
the current bottleneck with many imports. But there are other problems.
As the Government owes banks more and more (currently about a billion
US$), banks have begun asking companies to guarantee letters of credit,
this makes things flow even slower, then more shortages follow. The
latest is that the CADIVI website is unable to accommodate all users.
Thus, companies have people 24 hours a day trying to print requests and
approvals to get their stuff. Things are so bad, that I talked to
people at two companies last week that told me they have not even
processed one order for next year, which starts in three weeks, because
they have yet to complete everything for 2007. Shortages could be
really bad the first two months of next year. 
 
Then,
there are those that once the parallel rate became much larger than the
official rate, made a business of it, as I described in the Oligarca Burguesito post
a while back. Between those illegal requests and the legal ones for
Internet and travel dollars outflows ballooned 300% this year, as
people tried to take advantage of the huge difference between the
official exchange rate (Bs. 2,150 per US$) and the parallel exchange
rate (Bs. 5,650 per US$ last Friday).
 
Jut for
background, every Venezuelan is entitled yearly to US$ 3,000 to order
stuff through the Internet and US$ 5,000 when you travel, as well as a
US$ 500 cash advance before you travel. To get the travel part, you
have to provide the first time an airplane ticket.
 
But
rather than make the exchange control more flexible, the Government in
its infinite belief of the capabilities of its bureaucracy, its simply
adding layers upon layers of rules and people that are now reaching the
limits of the absurd.
 
The latest one is that 31,000 people (given US$ 263 million if they all requested all the money) now have to supply
a barrage of forms and receipts for their purchases. Even more
remarkably, some of these rules are new, so that many (if not most)
will not have some of it. But even worse, who is going to review the
information provided? We are talking about 31,000 files, which would be
almost impossible to review in detail.
 
Some of what CADIVI is asking for now:
 
For your Internet purchases:
 
–ID and letter explaining all your expenditures.
–Copy of your credit card statement
–Receipt from the company that brought your stuff to Venezuela
–Receipt from the seller
–Invoice with your name on it, what you purchased detailed, price and where it was delivered.
 
First
of all, all of these rules are new, but they are asking 31,000 people
to provide them. What if your name is not on the Invoice? Or all of the
details? What if you sent it to a friend’s house in the US and picked
it up? What if it was a gift to someone somewhere else? What if you
used it to pay an international health insurance premium like many do?
Or to subscribe to an international satellite subscription system?
 
There
are so many gray areas that this is pretty absurd. But let’s now look
at what they ask from those that spent the money while traveling:
 
 
–ID and letter explaining all your expenditures.
–Letter explaining how the money was spent
–Credit Card statement
–Details of how you spent the US$500 in cash advanced as well as the US$ 500 in cash you may withdraw
 
The last rule in particular, was never established before. Thus, nobody is likely to have receipts for how it spent the cash.
 
But, what’s the point anyway? What if I went somewhere in Europe to celebrate my high school graduation 30th
anniversary and I paid for the whole meal and it cost me US$ 4,800
courtesy of the Venezuelan Government at the lower rate of exchange? In
fact, what if I went to the best Restaurant in Lyon, France and spent
$4,000 in a bottle of wine? Nothing in the rules established any
restrictions, so what is the penalty if I supply (or invent) bizarre
reasons for my spending of the cash. Somebody with a sense of humor
could make up a lot of them, for example: I used the cash for the
purchase of US$100 in lottery tickets, I gave $50 to the church, spent
US$ 100 paying a round to everyone in a bar and $250 to go to and from
the airport in a helicopter. Would any of these be wrong? Illegal? So,
what’s is the point?
 
The point really is that
the controls are simply not working, but the Government is making it
more complex, creating more bureaucracy, making people lose more time
providing the information, but little of the waste will be stopped by
it.
 
Those that do it illegally will find new
ways of getting around the controls, while those doing it legally will
save every bit of paper and provide the information to CADIVI that the
exchange control office will never have the time and/or capability to
check or the legal means to establish penalties.
 
It’s
called running in place. Believing in the almighty power of an
extremely inefficient and incapable Government. But, as we say here, we
have seen this movie before and one day it will all blow up in the
bureaucrat’s faces and in our own. And apparently, until the next time
another Government decides to implement controls. So much for change
and the Vth. Republic and all that stuff.
 
Even animals with the most basic intelligence learn from experience…

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It will never be the same hour for us…or something like that

December 9, 2007

Just think,
unless you live in Venezuela, starting tomorrow, we will never have the
same time, as we are switching back half an hour starting tonight so
that we can enjoy all of these revolutionary advantages(Decree 5653 of November 26th. 2007):
 
“Better
take advantage of solar light in our daily engagement in the areas of
health, organic (?), functional, intellectual, productive and
ecological and so that we are involved less in risk situations and
accidents associated with darkness, as well as having more time with
solar light for family, social and recreational coexistence…at the same
time, this will translate in saving of electric energy, reduction of
combustibles associated with the generation of that energy, as well as
the reduction in the emission of contaminant gases in the atmosphere…”
 
Of
course, that will all be given back every afternoon after we drive home
in the dark, get home in the dark, etc. Of course, the effects will be
different in Maracaibo and Margarita, so that in the end it may make
little difference. But hey! This is a revolution and we want to be
different (even if we now can’t be socialist) and worry about
irrelevant problems, because important problems are really hard to
solve and require people with expertise and management capabilities. So
crime, poverty, food production and the like will be taken care of in
the third decade of the revolution.
 
See you in half an hour…or something like that.

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What now for the Venezuelan opposition?

December 8, 2007

The Venezuelan
opposition should do its own thing and try to ignore Chavez, as he will
do whatever he decides to do and it has been clear that he will not
limit himself in anyway, just because someone in the opposition is
against it.

The opposition has many problems, one of them the fact that it
has no obvious leader to counteract Chavez. Some think this is not a
problem, but in fact last Sunday’s vote showed that Chavez can be
beaten and one of the reasons he has never been beaten directly is that
no opposition figure has been able to grab the attention of the so
called Ni-Ni’s like the reform did on Sunday. (Ni-Ni’s are those that
are not the hardcore supporters for Chavez and who mostly abstained or
voted No on Sunday.)

I believe there is an opportunity right now for those that
want to lead the opposition in the future, it is very simple: Don’t go
on vacation! Yes, you can bet most opposition leaders are getting ready
to take off for Christmas vacation, but not Chavez. Much like last
year, he will stay and work hard through the New Year, trying to figure
out what he will do next.

In fact, General Baduel has already mentioned this in one of
his press conferences. After all, he understands it from within. He was
Minister of Defense last year when after Rosales’ defeat, all of the
opposition leaders disappeared until mid January, days after Chávez had
already made some dramatic announcements, such as nationalizing the
electric companies and the telephone company, the Enabling Bill and the
proposed Constitutional reform. You can be sure this year will be no
different.

At least General Baduel understands this and says he plans to
spend the holiday season going around the country promoting a
Constituent Assembly. Baduel clearly made a very calculated decision to
split from the revolution and attempt to become the leader of Chavismo
without Chavez. The opposition runs the risk that he will back into
being their leader, out of sheer attrition by what people call the
traditional opposition, which has little of traditional, as by now it
includes everyone that opposes the autocrat, including dozens of groups
from extreme left to right, as well as dozens of others that backed Chavez at
one time or another.

Chavez is likely to continue pushing Constitutional Reform.
Deputy Carlos Escarra, a constitutional lawyer has already spelled it
out clearly, Chavez will go the route of a Constitutional reform
promoted by the “people”. This is at this time the safest route for
Chavez. Another proposed reform may be defeated, but will not imply the
end of Chavez’s Presidency. By contrast Baduel’s proposal of a
Constitutional Assembly could end up like in 1999, forcing Chavez to
run for President again, a huge risk despite his still high popularity
at a time when economic problems are increasing. That is why Baduel
proposes the reform and Chavismo has so far clearly stayed away from
that idea.

While the Constitution bars the presentation a proposed
reform more than once, sufficient changes can be made to some of the
proposals made and rejected Sunday to be able to say that the new proposal
is quite different and does not
represent a revision, which is what the Constitution bans from being
presented twice.

To understand that, think about Chavez’ main objective with the
proposal rejected last Sunday: His indefinite reelection. A new
proposal could simply say that no President could be elected for more
than three terms in a row, allowing Chavez to run one more time in
2012, be President until 2020 and use that Constitutional period to
propose a new reform that will allow his indefinite reelection, if
conditions allow for it. Clearly such a proposal could not be legally
blocked because it is a revision of the old one. it is not indefinite reelection anymore, and it could be
accompanied by some other proposals using different names.

Baduel’s position in favor of a Constituent Assembly is
somewhat inconsistent, as he continues to defend the 1999 Constitution
but sees a Constituent Assembly as a way of balancing the National
Assembly and even getting rid of Chavez if economic conditions
deteriorated sufficiently before a final vote came to pass on its
proposal. This would take close to a year total, more so if the
opposition had a significant representation in the Assembly, which can
not be ruled out given the results of Sunday’s referendum and the
attempts by the Government to create a new discriminatory list by
finding out which members of Chavez’ new party PSUV abstained from
voting. This combined with Chavez lack of grace in accepting defeat may
create in the end a bigger backlash that he may imagine.

But is not clear what the opposition plans to do, unless you
find yourself in Baduel’s camp, as he is clearly part of the opposition
now, and while I applauded the role he played in helping the No win on
Sunday, he does not represent the future I want for my country.

Who does? Really nobody so far, since so little is being said of
substance in terms of alternative programs for our beleaguered country.
Most opposition groups are saying little different than Chavez is, as
they feel people want populism, which while correct, does little to
improve the level of debate in Venezuela. Thus, at the time, I may have
to be content to have a leader whose economic an political ideas
disagree with mine, as long as he has a track record, however short, of
respect for human rights, democracy and the rule of law.

For now, that would be a giant leap in improving conditions in Venezuela.

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Second bulletin finally in after five days, with 94% of the vote in, No still way ahead

December 7, 2007
It seems that it is now truly official,
after five days, the 300 million dollar system, the drums (for communications), the donkeys (for transportation)
and the abacuses (or abaci, for computing with digits) managed to count an additional 6% of the
vote and with 94% of the vote counted the result is that on the first
block of questions the results is:

NO 4.521.494 (50.65%)
SI 4.404.626 (49.34%)

For a 1.31% difference and on block B:

NO 4.539.707 (51.01%)
SI 4.360.014 (48.99%)

For a difference of 2.02%

Nobody
was able to vote on the transient articles, so I guess they are as
approved as they would have been if block A and B had been approved, or any
combination of the two with one approved and the other not approved.

Abstention so far is 43.85%

As
with so many things in this country, it is not a matter of machines,
money or technology, it is simply management, expertise and dedication. That is
why we now fly in milk from other countries to compensate
for shortages, apparently continue to export suitcases full of cash, this
time to Bolivia and you can bet the opposition will go on vacation next
week, expecting their newly found political gains to still be here when they come back in
mid-January.

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A serious critique of the defeat by a pro-Chavez theorist

December 7, 2007

Christmas is
creeping on us and the barrage of parties began in earnest this week,
tonight was my companies so I will not have time to post very long.
 
If there is one document everyone should read is this one
by German born Heinz Dieterich who lives in Mexico, one of the
“theorist” of the revolution, who is extremely lucid in his analysis
from the political aspects to the economic aspects. Perhaps it helps to
be removed from it all to view things so lucidly. For those that don’t
speak Spanish, some highlights:
 
On the reasons for the defeat:
 
¨The National Assembly
 
The
main cause of the defeat in Venezuela is the vertical system for the
conduction of the Bolivarian process. This is evident in its three
formal instances, in which the president has no counterweight
whatsoever: the Parliament, the Cabinet and the party. The Parliament
is essentially a resonance box of the presidential will where the
Deputies, controlled by the three “foremen” say yes to everything that
is proposed even if it is unworkable. The responsibility of this lies
in considerable part on the oficialists deputies who don’t want to lose
their perks.¨
 
“The warning signs: The ides of March

The
product that they pretended to sell to the people, the constitutional
reform was deficient. In fact, so deficient that it only managed to
convince one fourth of the electorate. It had absurd tactical clauses
such as increasing the presidential term from six to seven years,
unviable economic elements like the six hour workday and structural
proposals, like refounding the State on communal councils whose
implementation presupposed the existence of a revolutionary
dictatorship in Venezuela which the conditions are not given for.
 
Finally,
Ditereich writes the most lucid description of the country’s economic
conditions that I Have seen coming from of the pro-Chavez side:
 
¨Officialdom
has turned into taboo macroeconomic debate. Nevertheless, any economist
(note the any!) can infer from the functional equilibria necessary for
a market economy, that a problem s going to blow up. Inflation, already
around 18%, will receive a new surge of additional injection for the
purchasing power (liquidity) by the end of the year and will require
afterwards a considerable cool down period, which the opposition will
take advantage of. Administrative prices (defined by the State) and
price regulations for basic foodstuffs, foreign currency and the
internal consumption of energy, increasingly distort more everyday the
relationships between supply and demand and make the economy
uncontrollable, causing black markets, corruption, bureaucracy and
scarcity.

Unfortunately, Dieterich´s conclusions call for doing things that go against Chavez´personality, a bad omen for the future of the autocrat

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Did the military pressure Chavez to accept the No win and did they make a deal with him to soften the blow?

December 5, 2007

1)    Chavez talks on Sunday about his dilemma

2)    Chavez says he knew the No had won early on Sunday

3)    Chavez
says today that on Sunday night he ordered military movements on the
Zulia and Sucre Governorships, because they had plans to destabilize

4)    Diario
Vea had a headline ready saying the Si had won. That’s fine, you may
want to be ready early, but as seen in the video below, the front page
of Vea also had percentages for the Si victory.

5)   Eighty hours after the polls closed on Sunday, the CNE has not been capable of producing a second bulletin with the results from the referendum

6) The shit hit the F.A.N. (totally stolen from Escualidus Arrechus in Caracas Chronicles) today when Chavez showed up at the press conference of the military high command

7)    The Mayor of Libertador District, Freddy Bernal, the same one that on April 11th.
2002 was taped calling for the Circulos Bolivarianos to come down and
fight the peaceful march that was ambushed and two dozen people died
and hundreds were injured, was taped Sunday night saying :

 
“Intelligence
says Rosales and Baduel are going to Plaza Bolivar due to the results
of the election, we can’t allow this ti happen as this has been a
bastion of the revolution….but the worst part is Bernal says “These are
instruction fro the fundamental leader….and await instructions, the
leader himslef via this network will tell us the actions to take…

www.Tu.tv

 
And today we are supposed to believe that the military did not pressure Chavez on Sunday?

Yeah, sure

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Chavez calls the opposition’s victory excrement, announces plan to not follow popular will

December 5, 2007

Eerie show today, when the military
high command was holding a press conference to deny there had been
pressures on the President to accept Sunday’s results, when the autocrat
himself showed up. The video is right here (sound not great!):

Chávez y la victoria de mierda de la oposición
Uploaded by frankib

Among the lowlights:

–On Sunday, he ordered
military mobilizations towards the Governorships of Sucre and Zulia in case
the respective Governors decided to destabilize.(Note that he claimed last Sunday to have known he had lost since early Sunday evening)

–He
was also ready to take over the media and shut down TV
stations.

–He said four times the opposition victory was “shit” and his defeat
“dignified”. (I guess he means shit for him, or I am interpreting it
wrong?). By the way, saying that word is against his own muzzle law, which bans the use of such language on TV and radio.But autocrats are above the law.

–He also said that had the votes all been counted (???) the
Si may have won, but he did not want a victory like that. (Preparing us for
turning around the numbers on the A block?)

–He accused General Baduel of boycotting his militias

–At the end, he starts saying goodbye and the stops and turns around and says that he will pass an Organic Law to create the militias and the rambles about Sunday and how he had everyone monitored even from the air and how he had everyone infiltrated.

–Chavez had said earlier that the King of Spain had sent congratulations to the people of Venezuela and that was a first step in improving relations. He also said the Spanish Prince would be carrying a persoanl message for him from the King who told him to shut up and Chavez has asked for an apology. The Spanish Royal House has denied both the congratulations and the message from the King.

All in all, a very worrisome spectacle by the Venezuelan President, full of hate, absolute disdain for Sunday’s results and even the suggestion that he may do something about it. It was a message that will not gain him supporters or sympathy, it was a message that may only create fear in the Venezuelan population and ratify to those that did not go and vote and those that voted, why it was they wanted his proposal rejected.

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The people have spoken and said No, how will Chavez press his revolution forward?

December 5, 2007

The “people”
have spoken and they have said NO. By voting No, whether the margin was meager or not, the
“people” the same ones that the President and the Assembly have always
said “are” the revolution and want the revolution, have said No to the reform. And
recall that according to the Supreme Court, sovereignty resides on the
people. They are even above the Constitution.

But
clearly, this outcome was nowhere in the plans of Chavismo. They
stuffed their Constitutional reform proposal with items, which had and
had not their rightful place in the Constitution and never considered
the possible consequences of a defeat. And now they have one.

Chavismo
has never been a strong one for respecting or even thinking too much
about respecting the Rule of Law, but strictly speaking, nothing,
absolutely nothing of what was contained in the Constitutional reform
proposal can be approved by other means at this time. It would be simply illegal.
The “people” said No on all of it and only the same “people” should be
able to change their minds on all of it. No Guiarara Repano name change
should be possible, no shortened work day or even social security fund approved,
unless the “people” explicitly approve it in a referendum.

Unfortunately,
it will not be easy to have the people express a new opinion. The President and the
National Assembly cannot make another proposal on these subjects during
their respective terms and it is a long five years away for a new
Presidential term, and Chavez can’t be reelected and the National
Assembly should be in place for two more years, before a new one that could make
a new proposal will be in place.

Of course, the Government or
the opposition could have a group of 20% of voters make a different
proposal with those ideas palatable to the electorate and have it
passed if it was not too politically contentious.

Then,
there is the idea of a Constituent Assembly, which I find simply to be
too uphill for Chavismo today. Think about all that would be required for it:
A referendum to approve holding an Assembly, an election to choose the
members of the Assembly, months of discussions in a Constituent
Assembly that may actually be fairly even and finally the approval of
the new Constitution. It would take all of 2008 to accomplish this and
meanwhile the economy (see previous post) may really get complicated
for the Government and its popularity. The “people” are going to be very restless if
things don’t improve by then, thus it is very difficult for me to
envision a Chavista dominated Constituent process that will end well.

Of
course, Chavismo has never been too respectful of form and process. It
could approve part of what was rejected on Sunday via decrees supported
by the Enabling Bill as suggested by Deputy Iris Varela today.
The Chavez dominated Supreme Court will likely back it. But unless the
range of what is approved this way is limited to the subjects that are
acceptable to the opposition, it may carry a huge political cost.

The
simplest way may simply be for Chavez to push his “revolution” the same
way it has been doing it in the last few years, by pushing the bounds
of legality. The Central Bank is really not independent, private
property has not been respected by the Chavez Government and even
the structures of organizations have been changed by Chavez without regards
for the laws, so what else would be different?

Ironically,
it was Chavismo’s refusal to truly split the questions in blocks that
leads to this quandary today. If the social benefit questions in the
Constitutional proposal had been voted as a separate block, they would
have likely been approved by the people.

But
of course, at the end of the day, this was all about Chavez’ indefinite
reelection and that is the main difficulty for the autocrat. There are
no easy roads that will take him there at this time and he no longer
can think beyond 2012. Which I am sure is what he is pondering and
wondering about at this time.

Note Added: It turns out that last night as I was writing this post, Chavez said in La Hojilla that he may go the route of having a “popular reform proposal” in which 20% of the population gather signatures with their proposal, as suggested above as one of the possibilities. To suceed, this would have to be limited to certain issues, but you can be sure it will include Chavez’ indefinite reelection.

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