The Devil's Excrement

(Elecciones3D)The NYT’s Simon Romero focuses on crime getting that part of the story right (which you have read here many times), but where did those numbers for poverty come from? :

“Meanwhile, crime has exploded. According to human rights groups and a Unesco
study, Venezuela has the highest rate of gun-related deaths of 57
countries surveyed — far surpassing Brazil, one of the most violent
nations in Latin America.”

“While much of the recent attention has focused on killings among the
privileged, the vast majority of homicides in Venezuela occur in the
country’s poorest communities — Mr. Chávez’s strongest base.”

“Though the accuracy of official statistics is sometimes questioned by
the government’s opponents, the channeling of oil revenues seems to
have alleviated poverty somewhat in recent years. The Venezuelans
living in poverty has fallen to 34 percent from 44 percent in 1998, the
year before Mr. Chávez took office, according to government figures.”

“Meanwhile, however, a history of far graver abuses by the police has
gone unchecked, some crime analysts note. Last year, the attorney
general’s office said it was investigating 5,520 presumed executions by
the police between 2000 and 2005, involving 6,127 victims. Of the
police officials implicated, prosecutors have filed charges against
517, and fewer than 100 had been convicted, according to Human Rights Watch.”

“We’re
experiencing the worst crime wave in modern Venezuelan history,” said
Marcos Tarre Briceño, director of the nongovernmental organization
Secure Venezuela, “and the government barely acknowledges its inability
to control its own police forces.”

Mr. Romero should pick up a copy of “Venezuela: An agreement to reach development” where for less than twenty bucks he would have understood well what official statistics say and why. Moreover, in that book he could have found the names of dozens of experts, both pro and against Chavez, who he could have gotten in touch with to get that part of the story right.

As for Sunday’s result, let’s see if it is or not such an easy win, I hope Romero does not talk mostly to Datanalisis, weren’t they the ones predicting a Salas Romer victory a week before the election in 1998?

(Elecciones3d) While the Government keeps accusing the opposition of conspiracies and violations of the law, it seems as if it is those around Chavez, as well as the autocrat himself, who seem to be steeping out of line on the eve of the vote.

There was, of course, the autocrat himself last night, turning a one hour interview into a three hours plus tirade where he showed that he cares little about legalities, the rule of law and the separation of powers. He threatened the media, saying he would shut down the TV channels if they violated the law on Sunday. This, of course, has the small conflict of interest that he pretends to be, as President and candidate, the arbiter of what is legal or not and what threatens legality or not. He is not saying that he will call the Supreme Court, or get a judge to order it, he himself, the all powerful will make the decision to unplug TV stations that do not act according to his wishes. Whether as President or candidate, whichever the case maybe.

Lost in all of this is the fact that the Government TV station is the station of Chavismo, despite the fact that it is supposed to be the TV channel of all Venezuelans. But for Chavez there is only one Venezuela: His.

A reporter actually asked the President if under the Constitution a TV station did not have the right to be against the Government if it wanted to, to which Chavez answered that if that was the case, he as the Government also had the right then not to give them a concession. Can this autocracy be any clearer than this? There are no independent powers, Chavez decides, rules and acomodates, according to his whims and thoughts.

During the program Chavez also threatened to change the Constitution if the opposition did not behave “well”, calling any attitude against him, a coup attempt. But then, he said that if he used language like he would “pulverize” the opposition, he was just using “political” language and not being violent. Of course, when the opposition asks that the law be followed on Sunday, they are apparently staging a coup by invoking the law. But Chavez’ violent, confrontational and divisive language is supposed to be only “political”.

Chavez also said he would propose legislation so that if the opposition ever decided not to participate in an election like last year, it would be barred from participating for a few years. (Nice one party system that way) He said the opposition was being destabilizing when it did that for the Assembly elections in 2005, failing to remember the “small” detail that this happened because it was discovered that the voting machines used in the recall referendum and two regional elections maintained the sequence of the vote, despite repeated assurances, over and over and over, by electoral officials that this was simply “impossible” and that the data was randomized and then the sequence erased. Of course, there is no proposed punishment for any these electoral officials, despite the fact that they have been incompetent, violated people’s rights and lied through their teeth repeatedly.

Then we had arrogant pro-Chavez General Silva, the Head of CUFAN, saying exactly the opposite of what the Prosecutor General said yesterday: that people can not hang around the voting centers. Now, you would think than when the man that is supposed to uphold the law in the country says something, all Government officials would simply shut up, but General Silva certainly thinks he is somewhere between Chavez and the Prosecutor General. He said the obvious, that if people dont fit, they can’t go in, but why the emphasis on that rather than what the law says are the rights of the voters. Wasn’t this revolution about “participatory” democracy? I guess they don’t want it to be that participatory!

General Silva is clear proof that one day, we should simply get rid of the military for our own safety and the preservation of our democracy and rights. The role of the military in Venezuelan elections is simply to maintain order and protect the electoral material. No more, no less. They certainly have no role ordering, interpreting or saying what can be done or not. Least of all giving daily press conferences which all they do is create more fera and intimidate the electorate. That is precisely why we have an Electoral Board even if it is not very impartial. The CNE is the only Government body in charge of elections. Period. In fact, I heard a pro-Chavez member of the Electoral Board today contradict General Silva, saying that people indeed could stay until the audits, because the law says they can do that.

Now, you have to understand that the Chavistas are telling their people, rightly so, that they should stay around too to defend their votes. Thus, when General Silva spoke, obviously out of order, he thought he was saying something that the autocrat would be happy with, but Chavismo also wants to be able to be present, count, audit and watch how the votes are counted. It is, after all, the law and their right.

And then there was the CNE press “tent” which had live coverage all day of Chavista leaders offering their “institutional” message for people to go and vote. Once in  a while you would see a non-Government official, but it was mostly people strongly identified with the Government. At one point, I felt like going over and issuing an institutional message from the bloggers of the world, but I thought better of it, after all, not only I haven’t been chosen to represent anyone, but most viewers have no clue what a blog or “bitacora” is all about.

And thus, only two days to go, rumors fly around, faster than those at the trading deadline in the baseball Major Leagues. Some are truly juicy, but I will not make myself echo of any of them. But boy, are they juicy!

(Elecciones3D)Website tod2blogs has had the initiative of making a special page for coverage of the Venezuelan elections.To participate you have to be registered in to2blogs and create a category, tag or simply place the text Elecciones3D within the post, preferably at the beginning. You can find more instructions here.

Then, anyone wanting to see the up to the minute posts by bloggers on the election simply have to go to this page and find the latest posts by everyone!

Whether your blog is in Spanish, English, Urdu, swahili or any other language you can participate!

(Elecciones3D)The Supreme Court decided to be magnanimous and at least rule on one of the injunctions on the fingerprint machines, obviously denying it. It ruled that it was not admissible because the injunction was on a “presumption” and not on the matter at hand which was that it was criminalizing the act of voting by introducing the regulation that you have no right to vote if you refuse to use th fingerprint machine.

Of course, the Court did not rule on the other injunction which was based on the fact that it was discriminatory as the fingerprint machines will only be used in eight of the 24 states of Venezuela and only 48% of the voters will have to use it.

It is the end of the campaign tomorrow at 6 AM, so I will pay homage to the event by blatantly stealing Alek’s images from some of the many rallies he has attended in the last couple months.

Strange happenings all over the place as the Government seems to be stirring the pot unnecessarily:

–Yesterday, Minister of Defense Baduell suggested that people organize themselves for the audits by “designate representatives”. Well, these people have a strange sense of the law means, the law clearly states that the audits will be “open to the public” not to the people “designated by the public” as the General wants. Yes, there may be physical limitations to the number of people that may fit at a polling center, bt until that is exceeded everytime has the right to be there and participate and his suggestion is unnecessary. This is the second statement discouraging people from attending the audits, a right all citizens, no matter who they vote for have. Before it was the President of the Electoral Board itself, suggesting people go and cast their ballot and then go home to await the announcement of the results.

–Then there was Chavez saying that the Government stopped a plot against Rosales’ life that not even the opposition candidate knew about. As usual, he mentioned a weapon, but nobody has been detained, nobody has been identified, so that this seems to be like those attempts on his life that never produced even one person charged with attempting against his life. Rosales commented that “the Government candidate does not get wrinkles in his face to say lies and he says them with an incredible calmness”

–Separately, Rosales’ campaign office in the Montalban section of Caracas was raided by policemen looking for evidence of a destabilizing plan. In one very curious interpretation of the action, the head of security for the Mayor of Caracas, says there was no raid, since there is no order to carry out a raid. So the policemen the reporters saw and asked questions of were apparently phantoms who just wanted to browse through that office.

–Meanwhile the Vice-President outclassed himself in what are probably his last statements of the campaign when he said that opposition candidate Manuel Rosales represented “treason, perversion and calling him a political illiterate”. Always leave to the cynical and machiavellic Vice-President to inject that special touch of class to all discussions.

–I get a phone call from a friend asking for help with an international observer who has not been allowed to talk to anyone outside of officialdom, has no Internet and is looking for a balanced view on electoral conditions.

Not much time to post, but had to wonder and worry about Presidential candidate Jesus Caldera Infante declining his candidacy in favor of Rosales. So far I have been unable to find any evidence that Rosales looked for or accepted his support, but if I were Rosales I would simply reject it, saying: “Thanks, but no thanks”.

You see, as has been documented in this blog Caldera Infante admitted in front of the National Assembly that he had misused Government planes, was one of the most draconian executioners of the Chavez/Maisanta/Tascon list at Fogade, firing more than 150 employees of that Government institution and was investigated for corruption, but never charged by his Chavista friends, only to resurface as Secretary Genera of the Governor of Carabobo.

Men like these should be the first ones to be prosecuted if Rosales won the election. Thus, the opposition candidate should distance himself from this man

You have
to wonder, and worry, about a Government that blocks the entrances to the city so that people can not attend the opposition rally and the next
day it goes as far as letting highways have no tolls for the first time in decades in order to boost attendance
at their own rallies. Or today, it even tries to block the opposition candidate from getting to his rally. In the end, these are the irrelevant details that make no
difference and mean little one way or the other. But while I wish for a clean process, I worry about the dirty tricks.

Indeed, one
does have to worry about the continued manipulation of the electoral process by
the electoral authorities. And there are daily events to worry about, which make it a fairly unfair
process. Not only does the Electoral Board (CNE) allow Chavez to outspend
Rosales by a 12 to 1 ratio without saying much, but today we learn
about how public employees are being pressured and manipulated into going
to rallies and voting for Chavez. The immoral revolution does not have any
scruples. And I am starting to get increasingly concerned by their signaling. Even if I I am hoping for the best. The best for democracy. Nothing will be gained by either candidate winning under questionable circumstances.

As I have
said before, there are to me certain key factors that would make Sunday’s
electoral process clean, transparent and believable. Among them, there are two steps that
are simply crucial: Not connecting the voting machines until after they have printed the “original” tally and carrying out the
audit in a clean way, witnessed by anyone that wants to and, more importantly,
having access to the information of the audit that same night and not six weeks
later like it happened in the National
Assembly elections last year.

Well, by a
slight and just coincidental “mistake” the printed instructions being handed
out by the CNE to all witnesses and members of the polling stations and tables,
happen to inadvertently state that the connection to the CNE system is made before
and not after the original tally is made. In fact, many witnesses
report that this is precisely the way they are being trained. Rosales’ people
have complained and the CNE has now made up some huge posters that will be at
each voting center, but you have to wonder about this error and whether the posters will be displayed in such a way as to avoid confusion and conflicts.

The second
problem has to do with the audits. There is a procedure for the audits and not
only should the witnesses at the voting tables be present, but everyone should be
able to attend the audit (The law clearly states the tally and audit are public). In the 2004 recall vote,
soldiers with machine guns drove away the public (including me!) in clear violation of the law.
Will it happen this Sunday? Well, none other than the President of the CNE
is making the “strange” suggestion that people should stay home and abide
by the recent decree by the Ministry of the Interior prohibiting gatherings and
meetings on Dec. 3d. She is telling people to vote and then go home to await
the official announcements, conveniently “forgetting” about the audits. The
President of the Electoral Board is once again doing exactly the opposite of
what her mandate is, she is asking people to stay home and wait for the
results, rather than make the voting process as transparent as possible. But,
what else is new?

Similarly,
the Government has
asked to exclude a delegation of Spanish observers, from that country’s
Parliament (both parties). Weird how you want to exclude bipartisan observers
from a country with which Venezuela
enjoys excellent diplomatic relationships. Of course, one Spanish Deputy from
the Communist party, who refused to sign the very critical observation report
last December, is not being excluded and is being invited. What do they call
this: Selective choosing of partial observers that will look the other way? Or
simply loading the die.

And then we
hear the well balanced and “fair” statement by the Foreign Minister that it
is “simply lunatic to think that the opposition will become Government”. Well
hopefully he did not mean what some may think he meant and he just misspoke,
but he seems to be implying that some higher being may have to intervene in
order to stop the opposition from becoming Government. And we know who is the “highest
being” in this game.

And then
you have to wonder how the international media seems to pick up on the Evans-Zogby-Universidad Complutense-psos polls of this world. They pick up on them
and repeat them to death, turning their questionable data into the apparent truth. In a country well known for being quite problematic for a
new pollster, it seems that is all we can hear: the weird polls by unknown
pollsters which, coincidentally, have been paid by the revolution. Meanwhile, even
well known US pollsters, together with well known Venezuelan ones, most of which
with ample experience in Venezuela, are being ignored by the media, in another strange
feature of the upcoming election.

But the
real poll is Sunday and I wonder if any of the famous or unknown pollsters are
asking themselves the question I remind people of: Fear maybe a factor, but the
unknown factor in Venezuela
is and has always been abstention. No known or unknown pollster has ever, I
repeat, ever, been able to get a handle on that variable. Venezuelans are
ashamed of saying they are not going to vote. It is easier to say you are
pro-Rosales or pro-Chavez or even pro-Conde, than to say you are not voting. Thus, Venezuelan
polls always come on the side of significantly underestimating abstention.

Thus, I
contend that the most important factor in this election will not be fear, the
fear of being found out on your Presidential preference, but what I call the asymmetry
of the abstention” That abstention will be different on both sides.That is what I believe we have seen in the rallies for each of
the candidates. There can’t be any other explanation. The Nation may be evenly divided, but the Chavistas are tired
militants, as unlikely to go to the rally as they are to go and vote on Sunday.
Meanwhile, one of Rosales’ top achievements has been to mobilize the opposition again.
I think this will translate into a very significant factor as, even if Chavez
has a majority, he could lose because of abstention. People forget abstention
was 33% when Chavez was first elected in 1998 at the height of his popularity, or 43.7% when Chavez was
reelected under the new Constitution in 2000 or even that abstention was 30% in
the recall referendum of 2004. In ALL these cases, predicted abstentions by experienced
pollsters were in the 12%-27% range. Pollsters are suggesting simlar numbers for next Sunday.

Anyone
that thinks that these numbers will be improved is misjudging the emotional state
of the electorate. In 1998 and 2000, Chavez was at the height of his popularity
and even in the recall vote of 2004, there was an intensity to his rallies that
is absent today. None of the pollsters in 1998, 2000 and 2004 saw such large
levels of abstention. None are seeing it today. But if I had to make an
educated guess, I would guess that abstention will be like that of 2000, near
the 45% level. One should never make bets on non-trivial issues, but there is
one that I would be willing to make.

Thus, the
implication is that if the streets and the rallies are simply an indication of
the asymmetry of abstention for between both sides, Chavez has more to worry about than Rosales. The election could be
decided with less than ten million voters casting ballots and large levels of
abstention would seem to hurt Chavez the most.

But the
revolution has been spending money convincing the world that it is a fait accompli, that Chavez has been
reelected. You have to wonder why.

The only
thing one has to ask for at this time, is that the process be clean,
transparent and have no confusing aspects to it. Let the true winner emerge in
clear fashion without mucking up the process. Let democracy, real democracy
carry its course, no tricks, and no hidden agendas. Let’s hope for the best, while worrying about the worst.

I can post pictures again, so it may not be too late to show one more time a picture of the mother of all avalanchas last Saturday, choosing one of the most impressive shots I have seen, sent to me by DR from the US.

Historian and former Foreign Minister Simon Alberto Consalvi gives us his perspective on the upcoming election

I will vote for whomever does not mind me by Simon Alberto Consalvi in El Nacional

In seven days, Venezuelans will confront a test which no one can be indifferent to face. We all have to assume the position that our conscience dictates us, thinking not in personal or selfish terms, but of the destiny of the country. On Dec. 3d. we will elect a President of the Republic, but we are going to opt for something that goes much farther than that; during the times of our representative democracy this was a transcendental episode, but it never had the implications it has now.

It will be something much deeper, something that will modify our lives, the way we are and the way we behave, which will substantially affect our political and social system, depending on what the final verdict is, whether one or the other presidential options in play wins. One, that of the officialdom, promises to establish the “XXIst century socialism”, carrying out to its ultimate consequences the privatization of the state, of its immense resources, of its oil wealth, placing them at the service of an anti-democratic political project. There will be no public institution that will not be captured, from the powers of the state to the Armed Forces, which will stop doing what the 1999 Constitution says, to turn itself in the red army, that is, the armed branch of the revolutionary project.

There is no way of predicting the future, and is not a matter of asking the planets. The deck has been dealt. The promise of officialdom translates into the conquest of the State and in the abolishment of all other alternatives that, in a country with a pluralist tradition, were always present.

Like an army tank, the Bolivarian project has advanced in systematic fashion.

They adulterate history, painting with black colors the past, condemning to death all dissidence, while he applies the tactics and the methods of Juan Vicente Gomez, which served to justify the thesis of the “necessary gendarme”.

The theorists of the dictatorship, armed their doctrine starting from the premise that Venezuela was a country of morally unqualified people, not governable, lazy, anarchic, and that it needed General Gomez. They had to paint Venezuelans with Goya-like colors so that the image of the dictator would appear with the aura of the redemtors. That is the basis of the “necessary gendarme”.

It was such a false thesis that when Juan Vicente Gomez died, reality took care of denying it. Nobody dared mentioning it. Starting with Lopez Contreras, Venezuela demonstrated that it did not need gendarmes, that it was a country capable of choosing a political system that would guarantee everyone their representation, which progressively it began to conquer. With time, that system was called “an imperfect democracy”. There is no doubt that it was “imperfect”, but it was a democracy that allowed for the doors of change to remain open. Those are the possibilities that the Bolivarian project promises to aniquilate, to consecrate an autocratic regime, which is in conflict with pluralism and the freedom that we have enjoyed since 1936, with the exception of the years under the dictatorship of Perez Jimenez.

The Bolivarian revolution promises to implant a model that has demonstrated it is unfeasible and which has failed all over the world, from the fall of the soviet empire to all of the countries in the Iron curtain. The model that obsesses them the most is the Cuban model. A model that requires generous subsidies to survive. That is the metaphor that is hidden under the abstraction of “XXIst. Century Socialism”

It is not the democratic socialism of Chile, of Uruguay, or that of Brazil, where human rights are respected, private property, republican alternability, the equilibrium (and counterbalances) of the powers of the state, the interplay of ideas, freedom of speech. Neither Michelle Bachelet, nor Tabare Vazquez, nor Luiz Ignacio Lula Da Silva are pretending to stay in power until 2030. That punishment is apparently destined to the country of Bolivar and its “lifetime President” or for the rural country of the “necessary gendarme”. That is what is at play on Dec. 3d.

In the face of a perspective of such nature, there is no way to be indifferent. The vote this December has implications that it never had before in Venezuela. We Venezuelans have voted during seventy consecutive years from 1936 to 2006. We even voted during the time of the dictatorship of Perez Jimenez. The country knew how to vote. The rejection of the dictatorship was massive, its crumbling was the expression of popular desires and the civilest conscience of the Armed Forces, fatigued from lending their name to the personalized exercise of power.

This December the Presidency of the Republic is at stake. This is true, but what is at stake is much more than that. One candidate aspires to be chief of an aggressive sect, painted in red, armed behind the Kalashnikov rifles of thousands of reservists or of territorial guards that will not leave us in peace.

What is at stake is the destiny of 26 million peaceful Venezuelans, that not only believe in democracy, but also aspire to deeper reforms of society, in the search for equality and well being, but not by transplanted reforms, which are far from the pluralism and the right to decide for ourselves.

This December Venezuela’s foreign policy will be at stake. We have to vote for those that guarantee peace among Venezuelans, but also peace among our countries. It is necessary to vote against the strategic hate of the cold war.

Against the invention of asymmetrical wars and other demential concepts, against the interventionism of Venezuela and the proselytist waste. Venezuela requires a foreign policy founded on the permanent interests of the state and the Nation. A policy that respects others and makes our country be respected.

It is necessary to vote against demagoguery, against the anachronical cult of personality of the regimes of the soviet orbit. Against the boredom of a discourse that eight years later it is very similar to the visit to the dentist. Let’s vote for a President that will not like to tell us what we should read or what we should not read. For someone that will not give us lessons in history everyday, that will allow us to make mistakes and will respect our mistakes.

I will vote in the end for Manuel Rosales, because he will not mind me, nor what I do, nor what I think, nor what I write.

Because he will allow me to live in peace the life I want to live.