The Devil's Excrement

Even though Daniel
is the Electoral blogger expert, I have tried all week to understand
the results from last Sunday’s municipal elections, without much luck.
Then today the CNE announces
that data on its website is just wrong, which certainly does not help.
No explanation to how this happened, but an institution that first told
us in real time how many people had voted, then took almost day to give
us results, has now taken a week to “straighten them out”, or at least
tell us that they are not correct. So much for transparency!

My
problems began last week when the CNE announced abstention was 69.2% ,
so I quickly calculated that 4.37 million people had voted for someone.
But the numbers did not make much sense even then. Chavez’ MVR had
received 1.3 million slate votes, which was only 30% of the total vote,
not the higher numbers (38%) being announced by that party’s leaders
and colorfully shown in the CNE’s website.
Even harder to understand was that MVR had only obtained the votes of
only 9.1% of possible voters. So much for Chavez’ popularity. But that
was the truth. Even with the extra three hours, which are questionable
from a legal point of view, in which reportedly 481 thousand people
voted, Chavez’ MVR had only obtained 9.1 % of the votes of all eligible
voters. I would be worried if i were them The revolution seems to be
running out of gas.

But
the numbers still did not make sense until it was announced that of the
4.3 million votes, 766 thousand and were null or voided. How do you explain that? So far I have not heard a single good explanation, from the CNE, the Government or the opposition..

You
see, in order to have your vote voided or nullified there were only two
ways of doing it. One, don’t vote for anyone and press the “Vote”
button. Two, wait three minutes, don’t vote, ask for an extension,
three minutes go by, still no vote. While the second option was
proposed by some as a better one than abtaining, as it required those
manning the polls to register it as a null vote, I heard nobody mention
that this actually happened in large numbers. At 766 thousand null
votes, this was roughly 38 per voting machine and most machines had
about one to two hundred voters, so it would have been quite noticeable
if this had happened. None of the people manning the tables that I
talked to, said this was the case in their machine.

So, what is the explanation for these 766 thousand votes? To
think that a number of people which is equivalent to 57% of the people
that voted for Chavez’ party, decided to vote for nobody, seems truly
amazing. It would make them instantly the second largest political
force, or at least voting political force in the country.

But
you see, Venezuelans are well known for their “economy” of the vote.
Venezuelans hate to lose a vote, which sometimes has led them to vote
for the “winner” just so that they could say they did. In fact, in the
vote to recall Chavez in which 9.8 million people voted, only 26,000
votes were voided, thirty times fewer than in this election, but less
than half the number of people went to vote this time
around compared to the recall vote. Strange, no? All of a sudden we
have a “silent almost majority” that sponteusly decides to vote the
same way.

Unless,
the problem is technical. But you see, once you voted the machine would
print up your vote so that you were sure that it registered your wish,
so if there was a technical glitch, people would have realized that
something was not working properly. And at least one machine per voting
center was counted manually.

Or,
God forbid, we could suggest some form of electronic/software
conspiracy to allow the data to “fit” the desires of the Government.
Like pollster Alfredo Keller who voted for an acquaintance for
citycouncil, saw the printout was correct, but that candidate got no
votes at that poll booth.Or maybe that would explain how Carmen Lopez,
Haydee Delgado and Marlene Carpio, received no votes in their attempts
to get elected as councilwomen of Petare, despite the fact that they
assure us that their family voted for them, but in any case they are
sure they voted for themselves. But their votes are nowhere to be
found. They got zero votes (0), each and everyone of them. Explain that
Jimmy Carter! These three ladies were candidates for the infamous
Tupamaros party, who after protesting all week of being robbed,
received a direct warning from one of their leaders, that
anyone accusing the Government of fraud would be disciplined, proving
that despite its claims to now be a democratic organization, it
maintains its strict militarist and hierarchical structure. Unless, of
course, somebody got to them (money?), but how can I even think of that
in this so ethical revolution.

And
it has been the Tupamaros that have been so far in the middle of this
sea of null votes. In Aragua, the Tupamaros claim they won 5 positions
in the Negro Primero district, but somehow their votes disappeared as
the null ones went up and they got none, talk about being nullified!.
They denounced the same in Aragua and Sucre States.

The
opposition did not do well either, that is very clear. But it does not
help when half of it is calling for people not to go and vote. Primero
Justicia only got 144 thousand votes nationwide, but they were focused
on only a few municipalities most of which they won control of. Rosales
in Zulia did very well, capturing 68% of all councilmen in Zulia by
using the same unethical and illegal “morochas” that Chavez and UVE
did. Some will argue that all is fair in love and war. I will argue
that if it takes a thief to beat a thief, I may always be in the
opposition if this is what it takes to get rid of Chavez.

Below
is the table with the electoral results taken from Tal Cual, which I am
sure, can not vouch for them. Unfortunately, neither can the Electoral
Board (CNE). So much for US$ 130 million spent in voting machines
to make the process cleaner and transparent. We know as much (or as
little) today as we did when the voting was manual. Except that then we
could see and count the votes, each and every one of them. Go figure!

Somehow, being against Chavez is interpreted by some as not being
patriotic, not caring about Venezuela’s sovereignty and being pro US.
This is confusing, because, first of all, there is nothing about being
against Chavez that points to that, but, more importantly, it is Chavez
that seems to be acting agaisnt the interests of Venezuela, when he
gives away Venezuelan money and oil to richer countries, when he allows his
personal security to be handled by Cubans and when even the Venezuelan
military goes to Cuba to have Fidel Castro preside over their
graduation ceremony. But I do not see pro-Chavez people questioning any
of that.

All of this comes to mind because Chavez offered yesterday in Brazil to
allow the Brazilians to exploit the Cerro Negro oil field of the
Orinoco tar sands. Now, to those that may not know what that field is,
it is supposed to be the largest oil field in the world, with an
estimated 50 billion barrels of oil in it and only about 200,000
barrels are produced daily.

As a Venezuelan, I have to ask why? Why does Venezuela offer its
largest oil field to another Nation, rather than exploit itself? Does
this make sense? Isn’t it anti-patriotic to happily “give away” in a
non-compettitive process such huge resource? Why not offer it to the
Venezuelans? All of us?

You see, Chavez could place the Cerro Negro oil field in a trust. The
beneficiaries of this trust would be all Venezuelans. The trust would
issue debt to invest in the exploitation of the field. Technical teams
would have to establish how long it will be before the field generates
cash flow. The bond issued would not pay interest for that period of
time. Then, once cash flow is positive interest would be paid and
whatever is left over would be given to all Venezuelans, each and
everyone of them.

Alternatively, 20% of the field could be floated as shares in the world
stock markets. With that money the field would be exploited and its
earnings given to Venezuelans directly.

Or, more simply, PDVSA could issue debt (it has none, which does not
make sense for a company that size!). Use the proceeds to fund the
exploitation of Cerro Negro and make more money so that Venezuelans
could benefit from it.

All of these ideas sem to me more “patriotic”, “nationalistsic” and
“sovereign” than just handing it over to the Brazilians. But I don’t
see the pro-Chavez forces criticizing him for it. Why?

Does anyone understand the rationale behind Chavez’ offer? Does anyone
consider it patriotic? Is is in the best interests of Venezuela and the
Venezuelans? Do we need the Brazilians? I just can’t understand any of
it.

— “Argentina’s
bonds are thousands of times safer than US Treasury bonds”

Tell that to those that had them before than country
defaulted three years ago

–“There is a
savage and relentless attack on President Lula that has to come from a
planning center of his own country or abroad…it is a rightwing conspiracy”

Only hours later, Lula himself went on TV
and ask Brazilians to forgive him and his party. “I feel betrayed by
unacceptable practices, practices of which I was never a part of” said Lula,
showing why he is so different from Chavez.

–“Oil prices will never go down”

He should talk to Carlos Andres Perez, who thought exactly
the same thing in the 70’s.

–Venezuela
can help alleviate the oil crisis that is coming”

According to reports, Venezuela’s oil production went
down in 2003, again in 2004 and has gone down so far in 2005. You know why?
Lack of investment. You know who decided that? Hugo Chavez. It is a vicious
circle, in and outside his mind.

Don’t forget to read Daniel’s letter to the opposition,
hopefully they will pick up on some of these ideas. All I can add  to it is:
When in doubt, hold a primary, people want more democracy, give it to
them.

I still can’t get over the fact that Venezuela will give cheap
financing for the Uruguayans to buy oil from Venezuela. I am revisiting
this topic because I thought it was a joke the first time I heard it. A
country with 68% poverty and a GDP per capita of $4,000 per year, will
subsidize oil for a country with a GDP per capita of US$ 12,000. Can
that make any sense? Why not ask for the same deal in return? Maybe
Uruguay could send us meat, which they produce a lot of and of very high
quality, under the same financial terms to Venezuela. Would they? Of
course not, they can sell it for full price at the international
markets (or even to Venezuela) and they feel no need to feed poor
Venezuelans in contrast with our President who will subsidize
Uruguayans going to Punta Del Este this summer. They can sure use it, with two star Hotels
at 160 bucks, cheaper gas can ease the pain on those poor Uruguayans
getting a tan at the beach down there during their month-long summer
vacation. Meanwhile the majority of their Venezuelan counterparts are
up here, getting a daily tan as they walk down the barrio, no car, no
public transportation either, for a job that pays a minimum salary
comparable to a night at that Hotel in Punta del Este. Hey! since we
are down there expressing our solidarity, maybe we can buy their crappy
airline too and solve that silly problem for them too. Next stop: Venezuela helps
out Malaysia with its problems. No, No, let’s help those people from
Singapore, they really need it! .

–The Head
of the Electoral Board (CNE) said before the vote last Sunday that he had polls
that said that 75% of Venezuelans trusted the CNE and this represented a high
number. I disagree. There should be NO reasons for people not to trust the
Electoral Board. If the CNE acted impartially, without confrontation, split
decisions and had listened to everyone, that approval rating should be in the
upper nineties, like it was in the past. This is another arrogant statement by
Mr. Rodriguez, who shows by just saying it that he has very low standards for
the job he is doing. Additionally, I believe that part of the large abstention
that we saw on Sunday was due to this mistrust in the CNE by both pro-Chavez
and anti-Chavez forces. (A poll today suggested 68% of the people do not trust
the CNE)

–There is
still no explanation of why it took so long to give out the results of Sunday’s
election. The whole point of making the whole process electronic (the cost was 20 bucks a vote!) was that
results would be given out immediately removing a possible source of mistrust
that the results were being tampered with. In fact, it was very strange that
before the polls had closed at 7 PM, Mr. Rodriguez gave out the precise
real-time number of how many people had voted between 4 PM and the time he was
speaking but it took over 12 hours to give us very basis incomplete results. How
can anyone explain this? What was going on?

–Yesterday
I heard a lady on TV from the infamous Tupamaros group, questioning the results of the
election. She was actually a candidate for city councilman (woman), but
incredibly got zero votes according to the CNE. She said that her whole family
had voted for her, but the one thing she was sure of was that she herself voted her
name in So, she was asking, how could I get no votes at all? Good question, but
don’t expect an answer to it.

Two weeks ago, the opposition held
a civilized and peaceful march, mostly women, going to the Electoral
Board (CNE) headquarters to present a document with their demands for
transparent and fair elections. The CNE was surrounded by National
Guardsmen and police, tear gas and water cannons were used against the
crowd and nobody form the CNE received the document.

Today, an outlaw group called the “Tupamaros” well known for going around armed and with hoods over theri faces, holds protests
in Petare and at the CNE Headquarters without the armed forces or
police showing much interest. They are led by none other than Richard Peñalver,
the man the whole world saw shooting opposition marchers from Puente el LLaguno in April 2002,
but was declared innocent by the “impartial” Chavista Justice. It was all a mirage apparently.

To add insult to injury or to help prove my point, the CNE meets with them
and promises to do an audit of all of the voting centers that they are
complaining about. The Tupamaros say they were cheated electronically,
cheated by the “morochas” which they say limits the role of minorities
and saying phantom party UVE does not represent the revolution. Tell us
about it Richard, at least they go and talk to you!

This is simply discrimination, if you are opposition, which despite
calling for abstention got almost 50% of the vote, you have no rights,
can’t march and your complaints are not heard. But if you are a
pro-Chavez, violent, aremed, hooded, outlaw group, you will be given the royal
treatment.

Some democracy!

Here is clear evidence of corruption in the revolution. The full page ad on
the left was published today in at least all of Caracas’ major newspapers. It
is a self-congratulatory ad by the Metropolitan Mayor of Caracas, who
is a member of Chavez’ MVR. Congratulating Venezuela, because the
“people” have won. On the right I have blown up the symbol of the city,
which was stolen from Harris as reported earlier,
in another act of unethical behavior. It also says among other things
“With Chavez only one Government” and in the top part the voting
“ballots” for Chavez’ MVR and the phantom party UVE, then “The votes of
the social groups increased” which is certainly a sentence without
content and then “Now to work for more unity, with Chavez and the
people, with only one Government for the revolution of the XXIst.
century”. Somewhere else it also self-congratulates his party for the use
of the illegal “twins” or “morochas”.

Now, to begin with Mayor Juan Barreto is using public funds to
finance promotion of a party, its activities and self-congratulate
themselves This is illegal according to two Venezuelan laws, the one
that regulates political parties and the anti-courruption law. But of
course, nothing will happen, this is the same way they finance their
marches, their voting drives and even their personal activities. And nothing ever happens.

It is not clear what the 96% refers to, maybe the percentage of
councilmen they received in the races, but in any case it is deceiving,
because they did not get that percentage of votes. But it goes in line
with that autocartic and dicatorial and anti-democratic frame of mind
that likes to win with 99% of the votes, a la Saddam or Mugabe.

But the messages that
bothers me the most are its autocratic tone, things like saying “only one Government” and
the like, as well as the partisan message in what may have been at most an
institutional ad. The references to Chavez and Chavismo are certainly
completely out of line and illegal.

Additionally, I still find it amazing at the lack of shame for using
what is nothing but illegal cheating to win more positions, wehn they
congratulate themselves for using the “morochas’ trick. This
clearly shows the unethical nature, the innate corruption and the lack
of scruples of this sad robolution.

In any case, another demonstration of the corruption and autocratic
nature of the Chavistas and the impunity surrounding the robolution.

Latest Chavez joke:

Venezuela accuses DEA of spying, severes ties.

Drugs will flow through Venezuela like water through a strain from now on.

Chavista abstention by Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual

The Chavista people called in their debt. This is the most
significant aspect of yesterday’s election: the huge number of “backers” of the
Government who did not vote. Abstention in general, in municipal elections, is
not a rare thing, but, in this case, it is a phenomenon which deserves
attention, the huge level that it reached in the popular bastions of Chavismo. The
most probable thing is that in terms of positions won, MVR with its cheating
with the twins of UVE and the illegal application of the electoral statute,
obtained a majority, but the most prominent political event is that the people
that Chavismo believed were their captives did not attend their call to vote.

Officialdom assumed the campaign full blast. That is why the
abstention of its supporters can not be seen, much like the spokesmen for Chavismo
want to make it look now, as a mere expression of the traditional “indifference”
towards municipal elections. Chavez himself got involved directly making frequent
calls to vote, calls that, obviously, were meant to be an “order” for his MVR,
an order to move all logistic and financial resources in order to mobilize its supporters.
And by the way, they did it. The CNE, on its part, in an umpteen demonstration
of abuse of power, extended by three hours the time to vote to give more time
for officialdom to make an extreme effort to find those reluctant to vote. Nevertheless,
it was all useless. The abstention of the Chavista people was “militant”. There
was a message with a destiny there.

On the one hand, it was a clear protest given the imposition
of candidacies. The myriad electoral formulas proposed by the Chavista bases in
the face of the official twins, was part of a first expression of
dissatisfaction-probably without consequences in the distributions of
positions, given that the “twin” artifice also affects the dissidents of the
Chavista hardcore, but it is full of political significance.

On the other hand, this abstention is the political-electoral
translation of the dripping in front of the Miraflores palace, of popular
groups identified with Chavismo, that demand satisfaction for their vindication
or complain about the inability of the Government to take care of them. “A very
good speech by the President”, people say, but we want to “see the cheese in
the arepa”*. Yesterday we heard the tolling of a resounding bell.

Maybe tomorrow we will be able to comment on the results of the
vote. Nevertheless, there is something we can give you a preview of. That
result will confirm that the illegal application of the Electoral Statute on
the part of the CNE and its tolerant complicity with the treachery of the twins,
will give MVR a presence in the municipal councils and parochial boards which is
disproportionately larger than the number of votes. On the other hand, the abuse of power on the part of the CNE already pointed out,
when it extended voting hours, only underlines the partiality of that
organization

These are all capital themes in the face of the electoral
process in December to elect Deputies for the Nacional Assembly.