The Devil's Excrement

Last Sunday Chavez’ traditional and lengthy Sunday program was not broadcast. Rumor has it the reason was that MVR had not defined its strategy on referendum issues. But the best part was the explanation given by the Minister of Infrastructure Jesse Chacon for cancelling the program:

“the incidence of the atmospheric phenomenon known as the autumn equinox, which has been present in our country between September 25th. and 30th. makes transmissions difficult in the time period between eleven in the morning and two in the afternoon.”

I confess getting the feeling I wasted my time getting a science Ph.D. and having no knowledge about this obviously very interesting and novel atmospheric phenomenon known in revolutionary circles as the autumn equinox…..

This is what makes this a true revolution, these guys are capable of getting up in front of a microphone, keep a straight face and say the most unbelievable things or explanations about any subject, knowing that they have no clue about what they are talking about. Maybe Minister Chacon made some wine before making his statements.

The new referendum regulations are terrible. Terrible, because they violate the spirit of what a referendum is supposed to be. They make it complicated, cumbersome and almost impossible to gather sufficient signatures to recall any public official. Only if the voters are extremely upset or disappointed will a recall vote ever be possible in Venezuela given these new regulations. Simply allowing only four days to gather the required signatures is absolutely ludicrous and, in my mind, goes against the spirit of what a recall referendum should be. Moreover, publishing the National Identification number of each and everyone that signed the petition for the recall, is a limitation of the right to privacy in a country where political cronyism is the rule of the day, where a large fraction of working and voting Venezuelans work for the Government and where politics influences who is hired for low paying Government jobs. Finally, the idea that each and every signature in the petition will be checked until the minimum number of people that is required is validated, is simply an insult to technical concepts. It is obvious that sampling would suffice, but the regulations are meant to impede the presidential referendum against Hugo Chavez from ever taking place.

And all of the above is what may make these regulations great in the medium term, if the recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez is ever held. While I am a believer that the Constitution is meant to be respected, Chavez’ 2000 Bolivarian Constitution is absurd, in that it pretends to introduce the concept of participatory democracy to all levels, allowing all public officials to be recalled whenever a certain percentage of signatures is gathered in a petition. The same would be true of consultative referenda on any issue that the public may feel is important.

While the idea of a participatory democracy like that may be appealing at first sight, it is just too simplistic. In a country like Venezuela, it could be used by the opposition to create constant uncertainty and instability. Imagine this: Every single Monday for a year, the opposition hands in a petition for a recall referendum against one Government official. According to Venezuelan laws, the request for the referendum has to be handled within a certain time frame, forcing the Electoral Board to hold a recall referendum against the Government essentially every single week for the next year. Of course, the Government could counter these actions by the opposition doing exactly the same, creating even more instability. Thus, the country would be constantly immersed  in an electoral carnival, where each side would hail its victories or minimize its defeats every Sunday. This would also be very costly process, consuming time and keeping the attention focused on politics rather than on working for the country (As if politicians needed more distractions).

And that is why these regulations may turn out to be great in the end. Without them, the Venezuelan Constitution would have had to be rewritten sometime down the road, to eliminate the dangers of this misconceived form of democracy. But the way they stand now, each time either the Government or the opposition wants to hold a referendum it has only four days to gather all of the required signatures, which in my opinion will usually be quite difficult. This will require a highly motivated volunteer force, excellent funding and a strong interest on the part of the electorate to recall the candidate or have a vote on an issue.  Thus, the overregulation of the referenda in the end may turnout to be a blessing in disguise, forcing politicians and public groups to think twice about having a referendum and only having one when the issue is extremely important or when the electorate is sufficiently disappointed with an elected official. This is what is happening today. A large fraction of Venezuelans is extremely disappointed with Hugo Chavez, his Government and all their failed promises. Even then, I believe that the hard part will be to get the signatures in only four days and not to get the votes on the day of the referendum. There are simply too many limitations and huge possibilities for intimidation and interference. After gathering the signatures, the recall referendum itself will seem extremely easy.  As usual, this is an example of the true nature of the Chavez revolution. The Constitution was written at the height of Chávez and his MVR’s popularity, nothing could go wrong, their popularity would always be with them, so they created a fantasy democracy, where referenda would be held to expand and extend their control over the country and its political system. Now this is all gone, so these set of terrible, but yet great regulations were introduced, in order to limit the power of what they thought once would be a powerful weapon: participatory democracy.

From Dow Jones via The Wall Street Journal:

CARACAS — Venezuela’s state-owned oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela (E.PVZ) failed to file its annual 2002 financial report to the U.S. Securities and Exchanges Commission before the deadline expired Tuesday and will need at least another month, said a company spokesman late Tuesday.

External audit of the report required more time, said the spokesman. “We now aim to have it ready by the end of October,” he added. The SEC filing is required given the fact several wholly-owned units operate in the U.S. and had to be filed on Tuesday.

PdVSA had already asked for an extension of 15 days after it failed to meet the first deadline, which expired June 30. Extensions from the SEC aren’t uncommon and are usually granted, and financial market participants aren’t likely to worry too much over a small delay. However, the failure to meet the Sept. 30 deadline will raise some eyebrows in the global and domestic financial community.

A loss in credibility in the financial market could make borrowing more expensive while a fine is also possible.

PdVSA asked for the delay in the filing because of the disruption of their accounting system due to a two-month strike that started in December last year. The strike was aimed at the ouster of President Hugo Chavez from office. After surviving the strike, Chavez dismissed about 18,000 PdVSA workers, or about half the staff. While replacement workers, retirees, and those who stayed on their jobs eventually managed to bring operations at the oil fields almost back to normal, some observers note that not all of the company’s units are back up to speed.

About 87% of the 1,400 people who had been employed at the finance department before the strike started have been fired. The government said it wouldn’t hire back any of the workers that were fired due to their participation in the strike.

Now, on July 1st. the Minister of Energy and Mines said that PDVSA had asked the SEC for a thirty day extension. I called him ignorant at the time. It is now 90 days later and nothing has been filed. I bet it will not happen in October either, these audiing companies will not risk their reputation certifying PDVSA’s finances, without being extremely careful about them. Actually, I am very eager to see the financials, I would bet the notes by the Auditors will provide a rare glimpse at corruption and mismanagement at the oil company. In fact, the 2003 financials should be even better if we want to send to jail all the corrupt and incompetent people at PDVSA!

Everything at PDVSA is not quite normal as shown by these pictures of a barge burning in front of a PDVSA platform.  Thes type of accidents are now routine, while they were rare before.

I have been always weary of articles linking Chavez with terrorists, but lately a whole bunch of reputable sources have been saying there is documentary evidence for these charges. There have also been events that point that way too, such as the Venezuelan caught in London who made it through security here without any problem.  Here is the latest from the US News and World Report entitled “Terror close to home”. Scary stuff indeed.

The opposition and the Chavistas got into a stupid pissing match today, much like little kids trying to fight over determining who had handed in the petition earlier in the morning. Essentially, both sides tried to beat the other to the punch, the opposition with the request for the recall referendum of President Chávez and the Chavistas with the request for the recall referenda of a fairly sizable number of opposition Governors, Mayors and National Assembly Deputies.

Who got there first was beside the point as a difference of hours within the same day would not impact whether a referendum takes place first or not. Despite this, while the Chavistas were holding a press conference in front of the CNE Headquarters, the opposition was sneaking in and handing in their request behind the scenes which outraged the Chavistas and led to a full day of childish accusations by both sides.

But lost in the shuffle was the question of why the Chavistas even bothered to do what they did. First of all, there will be regional elections for Governors and Mayors in June 2004. Thus, if anyone’s mandate is revoked next February or March, all it means is that he or she will be replaced by his second in command for the two months remaining in the term. In contrast, if Hugo Chavez is recalled, an election to replace him will be held thirty days after the referendum.  Second, by submitting their request, the Chavistas were tacitly accepting the new regulations issued by the CNE and any challenge of its contents and detail would seem fake, given their request today. Finally, the Chavistas know that very few of those that they are asking to be revoked would be recalled today. Thus, by requesting the recall at the same them with the opposition they are asking for trouble as opposition supporters would show up to vote, if all referenda are held on the same day, assuring a resounding Chavista defeat. Moreover, if the CNE were to schedule the petition drive for the same days, the Chavistas would not be able to distinguish between one side and the other and the threat of possible intimidation by pro-Chavez “Bolivarian Circles” simply disappears.

If it is so negative what then led the Chavistas to do what they did? There are two strong reasons I can think of: By holding their petition drive on the same day as the opposition, the opposition will not be able to say that the success of their drive was a recall referendum in itself, as the Chavisats will argue that people came out to sign for their petition. A second reason would be that by having all these petition drives on the same day, this will introduce confusion in the population and will overload the CNE with work.

Somehow, I get the feeling the Chavistas have lost sight of an important fact: The recall drive is just that, it is not an election in itself. What really matters is what happens the day of the referenda itself. If I were the opposition I would help the Chavistas to get their petition signatures complete, so that all their referenda are approved and held on the same day. Then, on that day, I would get all opposition voters out and vote against all of the referenda and recall Chavez at the same time. Then, the referendum against Chavez would become the mother of all defeats.

(By the way, lawyers said the Chavista request was illegal as they did a collective request which contradicts the regulatons)

Teodoro Petkoff is a very clever guy. The former Minister of Planning is now Director of the Tal Cual newspaper where he writes with seriousness and wit , both at the same time. Today was a case in point. Last Thursday Tal Cual published this picture of Chavez:

the headline was “At Gunpoint” and the Editorial said that Chavez was pointing a gun at the head of the President of the Comision Nacional Electoral when he said that “if the regulations are approved at gunpoint to count the votes manually, we will not accept it”

The Government’s reaction was to sue the newspaper, because according to the Minister of Infrastructure and Communications, the newspaper had put a gun in Chavez’ hand without explaining that it was a montage. Well, today Petkoff responded with this montage of the Minister himself, with flowers in his hands and a headline that says :” Skin deep”

But the best part, as usual, was the Editorial. With his customary wit, Petkoff suggests that maybe he should have clarified it, because Chavez repeatedly wore his military uniform even if it was illegal, using his mouth to threaten everyone with his military power of guns and tanks. Petkoff suggests that indeed he should have explained it because if there was someone capable of holding a gun like that, it would be Chavez himself. He also points out that the oversize gun should make it clear it is a montage.

Then, as you can see at the bottom of today’s paper, it says “Pinochio and Superman also sue Tal Cual” , referring to the times when the paper has used these images to mock the President or his Government. In fact, inside the paper there is a gallery of those that are supposedly suing the newspaper, including  from top left to bottom right those images he has used to mock Chavez: Pinochio, The Lone Ranger, Simon Bolivar, Venezuela’s first Congress, Neil Amstrong and Sammy Sosa:

Way to go Teodoro!

This week the Venezuelan media paid a lot of attention to how the Government handled the eviction of oil workers from the Los Semerucos oil camp. The story is complicated. PDVSA workers in oil regions have access to housing owned by PDVSA. Since they were fired, they are supposed to abandon it. However, most of the same PDVSA workers are fighting their firings in Labor Courts and, except for the cases of some women who were pregnant at the time of their firing which is illegal in Venezuela, very few cases have been dealt with by the courts. Thus, the workers were indeed fired by they contend this was done illegally and the eviction will have to wait until the labor case is decided. Despite this, a Judge order some people evicted. The National Guard surrounded the oil camp, entered the residences and began using tear gas to evict people and contain the protesters against their action. Things got out of hand and there was violence, a car was burned, 26 people were jailed. No matter what the facts, what is not permissible is for the National Guard to go in a residential area and begin using tear gas against people, including kids and older people. Moreover, those detained have been incommunicado and their lawyers are saying that the cases against them are clearly “cooked up” as, for example, the testimony by cops against some of the individuals is identical even in the specific words used by more than one witness. But by now, we have gotten used to the Government using excessive force and violating the rights of the opposition. So what else is new?

What is new is that in the La Rinconada section of Caracas, about one year ago, a group of very poor people invaded some Government land. They set up shacks and a barrio was built up over time. Last week, a judge ordered the land cleared, apparently for environmental reasons. Well, this time the Caracas police, which is part of the Libertador District headed by Chavista Mayor Bernal, showed up to execute the order. The people stood in front of their houses much like on Los Semerucos and the police began gassing them, you could even see babies in the hands of the women. After hours of fighting, the police managed to evict everyone and proceeded to burn down all of the shacks with the people’s possessions inside. Even in the much-maligned IVth. Republic, evictions like these were always negotiated and the Government found alternative locations for people to move to and even would help them move (under protest of course!). Thus, it is difficult to understand how this Government which claims to be so socially sensitive and caring to do this., The use of tear gas and force is becoming the rule of day against poor, rich, friend or foe alike. Thus repression is becoming more democratic in a very perverse way.  One may only wonder whether we are seeing the beginnings of outright repression every time events occur that go against the Governments wishes. But beyond that, how can Chavez allow this sort of repression against the very people that he claims his revolution is for? Is the revolution so corrupt by now that even the poor are no longer relevant in its path to impose total control of the country? You be the judge….

This week the Venezuelan media paid a lot of attention to how the Government handled the eviction of oil workers from the Los Semerucos oil camp. The story is complicated. PDVSA workers in oil regions have access to housing owned by PDVSA. Since they were fired, they are supposed to abandon it. However, most of the same PDVSA workers are fighting their firings in Labor Courts and, except for the cases of some women who were pregnant at the time of their firing which is illegal in Venezuela, very few cases have been dealt with by the courts. Thus, the workers were indeed fired by they contend this was done illegally and the eviction will have to wait until the labor case is decided. Despite this, a Judge order some people evicted. The National Guard surrounded the oil camp, entered the residences and began using tear gas to evict people and contain the protesters against their action. Things got out of hand and there was violence, a car was burned, 26 people were jailed. No matter what the facts, what is not permissible is for the National Guard to go in a residential area and begin using tear gas against people, including kids and older people. Moreover, those detained have been incommunicado and their lawyers are saying that the cases against them are clearly “cooked up” as, for example, the testimony by cops against some of the individuals is identical even in the specific words used by more than one witness. But by now, we have gotten used to the Government using excessive force and violating the rights of the opposition. So what else is new?

What is new is that in the La Rinconada section of Caracas, about one year ago, a group of very poor people invaded some Government land. They set up shacks and a barrio was built up over time. Last week, a judge ordered the land cleared, apparently for environmental reasons. Well, this time the Caracas police, which is part of the Libertador District headed by Chavista Mayor Bernal, showed up to execute the order. The people stood in front of their houses much like on Los Semerucos and the police began gassing them, you could even see babies in the hands of the women. After hours of fighting, the police managed to evict everyone and proceeded to burn down all of the shacks with the people’s possessions inside. Even in the much-maligned IVth. Republic, evictions like these were always negotiated and the Government found alternative locations for people to move to and even would help them move (under protest of course!). Thus, it is difficult to understand how this Government which claims to be so socially sensitive and caring to do this., The use of tear gas and force is becoming the rule of day against poor, rich, friend or foe alike. Thus repression is becoming more democratic in a very perverse way.  One may only wonder whether we are seeing the beginnings of outright repression every time events occur that go against the Governments wishes. But beyond that, how can Chavez allow this sort of repression against the very people that he claims his revolution is for? Is the revolution so corrupt by now that even the poor are no longer relevant in its path to impose total control of the country? You be the judge….