The Devil's Excrement

Busy week, little time for blogging, but here is a rehash about what I think about the new regulations, taken from another source I write for, which some of you may read, sorry for the duplication!!

After much discussion and a unanimous vote, the Venezuelan Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) finally approved the regulations that will be used for the recall referendum against President Chávez. The result is a victory for both sides. For the opposition, because it managed to significantly change the regulations originally proposed by the legal department of the CNE two weeks ago. For the Government, because it managed to introduce into the regulations a number of stumbling blocks which will make it significantly more difficult for the opposition to carry out the referendum. Overall however, the regulations, if not challenged by Chávez and his supporter, implies that there are clear rules and there should be a recall referendum for the President of

 Venezuela before mid March 2004.

The biggest victories for the opposition were those regarding the timetable and who collects the signatures. In the now infamous original draft, the CNE abrogated itself the responsibility for organizing and regulating the gathering of the petition. In some sense, it would have turned the petition drive into an election itself. In the version approved, the CNE will design and distribute the forms, a process that it will have to implement in 26 days, and then the opposition will have four days to collect the signatures at either 2700 centers established for that purpose, or gather them door to door using the forms given out by the CNE. The timetable was also considerably shortened by adjusting it to the current laws, as well as eliminating a number of steps that had apparently been created only to delay the referendum further. At the most, it would take 145 days for the recall referendum to take place, if the CNE made use of a 30 day grace period for the approval of the request for the recall referendum.

The regulations require that the CNE transcribe and check all the signatures required to reach the magic 20% of the electorate in order to request the recall referendum for the President. This will be done within the time period allotted to the full process of approving the referendum, so it will be the responsibility for the CNE to complete the process in time.

Where the opposition did lose some ground was in the fact that the process would be automated and fingerprints will be required in the petition. The biggest concern for the opposition may be the first requirement. By requiring that the process be automated, even if supposedly it can be made manually, it may be impossible to implement within the allotted time and a huge uncertainty is thus introduced in the process. Currently Venezuela has 7700 voting machines from Spanish company Indra. Both sides, but particularly the opposition, are weary of Indra and its style in previous electoral processes. Thus, a different company would have to run the process. However, it would appear unlikely that another company would want to take over Indra’s machines and implement the referendum using them in such a short period of time. Moreover, the need for automation has to be questioned when we are talking about a simple Yes/No referendum. In fact, even the Indra representative in Caracas said he saw no need for using an automated process.

The week had been full of rumors suggesting that the final regulations would be approved with a split vote. The Government was applying pressure on all fronts to have the CNE include both the fingerprints and the automation in the process. The final point for which MVR was applying pressure, was asking that the gathering of the signatures tale place in a single day, an issue in which they lost, as the CNE will allow four days for the collection of signatures.

Another decision, which may have a possible negative impact, is that the CNE will publish the names of those that signed the petition so that everyone may challenge the presence of their signatures in the petition. This will certainly intimidate members of the armed forces into not signing the petition, but is unclear whether it will or not have an impact on Government workers, who may fear losing their jobs if they do sign. The first is only a small number, but the second may be quite important in a country with such a large number of public workers.

Overall, except for the automation theme, the regulations provide a clear framework for the opposition to request the Presidential recall referendum. As with many other issues, the politicians have lost sight of the true purpose of the petition drive and the fact that the true election is the referendum itself. Much like the world of Venezuelan politics, the process is simply too complex, has too many details that are overregulated  and in our opinion, is in violation of at least the spirit of the people’s participation, as defined in the country’s Constitution. It is also very far away from the participative democracy that Hugo Chávez proclaimed to be his goal less than three years ago

Well, last night violence reached the Venezuelan National Assembly. Above, the picture of Deputy Perez Vivas of Social Chrsitian party COPEI, as scratched by Deputy Iris Varela of Chavez’ MVR. She claims he tried to make her fall, so she waited for him as he approached the building and jumped him. Are these our political leaders? Shame on them!

Well, last night violence reached the Venezuelan National Assembly. Above, the picture of Deputy Perez Vivas of Social Chrsitian party COPEI, as scratched by Deputy Iris Varela of Chavez’ MVR. She claims he tried to make her fall, so she waited for him as he approached the building and jumped him. Are these our political leaders? Shame on them!

I was going to reply to the comment by a reader in the story right below. My response was so long that I decided to make it an article in itself:

Dear Giovanni:

I think you are over simplifying the issues. First of all, Venezuela has a fairly large number of unemployed Doctors. Second, Venezuelan Doctors are considered to be better trained than Cuban ones. In fact, about ten years ago it was a team of Venezuelan Doctors led by Dr. Rafael Muci who determined that the Cuban epidemic by which 30,000 Cubans had lost or were losing their eyesight was simple malnutrition. I have talked to Dr. Muci about this and in his respected opinion a doctor trained in Venezuela is a much, much better doctor than the one from Cuba. So why didn’ty the Chavez Government open the program to venezuelan Doctors? Finally, countries are built on laws. There is a law in Venezuela that says that anyone trained abroad as a medical Dr. has to do an equivalency, much like in many countries of the world. A Venezuelan that goes to school in the US or Italy or any of those countries you mentioned WOULD have to do that. The Cuban doctors don’t. I would not approve if the doctors had any nationality.  Countries become developed when the laws are respected and there is enforcement of them, I do not believe citizens have the right to choose which laws they violate, least of all Governments.

What I object is that money is being spent on “new” projects to bring Cuban Doctors (which is really a political program) that are less qualified while Venezuelans hospitals do not even have gauze because the Government does not given them funds. The reason is that funds are spent only where politics matter. Most of the extensive networks of Venezuelan health facilities have no funds other than for salaries. I also take exception to your 80% figure. I have provided links in this blog to the Universidad Catolica project that shows that the poverty line was at 61% when Hugo Chavez took over and it stands today at 68%, those are the best numbers available. In fact, the Government’s numbers say poverty is below 50%.

The same thing happens on your second point, what I object to is that resources are being used for political purposes, when they could be used to solve a crime that is clearly easily solvable. I don’t buy the argument something was happening for the last twenty years. I was extremely critical of Rafael Caldera’s first three years in office, when he did everything wrong because he thought he knew what was right, much like Chavez, and things got much worse for Venezuelans until Teodoro Petkoff became Minister of Planning. But deaths in the barrios in Caracas Caldera’s last year in office were running at a rate of 40 per weekend, today they are running at 100-110 per weekend, so at least a better job at crime prevention was being done then. Both are tragic numbers nevertheless. But what is more tragic is that someone who had the popularity and the resources to improve things for the average Venezuelan has not done so because politics and power is what really matters to him. Look at the front page of El Nacional today where you would see how perverse this Government can be, former stripper, Head of Intelligence and currently Head of the training Institute INCE, Eliezer Otaiza is shown “showing off”  his new “equipment” in the modern gym he had built for himself next to his office at INCE. What type of social conscience can anyone have when as you say, there is a lot of poverty in the country and bad health care, but you can justify building yourself a modern gym in your office in an Institution in which should spend money in training young people? I think any politician in Venezuela from any party, who spends money in such ways should be recalled immediately.

As to your comment on Cuba and the US, I don’t see what they have to do with the letter from Havel et al. I do believe that people have the right for self-determination. But I do not believe that self-determination means or implies that people should be oppressed, not taken into account or have their rights be violated by their Governments. I do think the international community via the UN or whatever has to make all the efforts to stop this behavior wherever it may occur. The world should not sit idle while we witness more Pol Pot‘s, Fidel Castro’s, Hussein, Pinochet’s, Videla’s, Idi Amin’s or any form of oppressive dictatorships that violate the human rights of their citizens. That is the main accomplishment of the civilized world in recent decades.

One of the saddest things of the recent events in Cuba where dissidents were jailed and three men were condemned to die by firing squad was that these men were what should have been the archetypical success of the Cuban revolution: They wereblack and young (below 21), raised and educated completely under the revolution,  but they were killed for committing a political crime in which nobody was even injured!. Such is the reality of Cuban oppression.

The overall deterioration of health, crime, the economy, the increase in corruption and the lack of any constructive accomplishment is the tragedy of Chavez and those that are still with him. Had it been Salas Romer that had this same record of accomplishment, I would be saying exactly the same thing. Venezuela has received over US$ 120 billion in these five years for its oil exports and there is no measurable improvement in any economic or social parameter you may mention. This is more money in any five year period that any Venezuelan President in any five year term has received. Under the old Constitution Chavez’ Presidential period would be over by the end of the year. Under the new Bolivarian one, a referendum should be taking place by the end of the year. Neither will happen. It is not fair to the Venezuelan people, poor or rich alike.

Thanks for reading and commenting my blog.

Venezuelan Intelligence police raided the First Administrative Circuit Court considered to be the most professional Court in Venezuela. The Court has been severely criticized by Chavez because it ruled that Cuban medical doctors should cease working in the country without passing the medical equivalency test. The issue is over the fact that the driver for the Court’s President was detained last week with a case folder in his car without authorization. The Justice has said he sent the driver to deliver the file. Amazing how much is made of this political case and we have yet to hear about any investigation of the eight people killed at the funeral of a gang violence victim last weekend.

As I predicted, the recall in California will proceed and the issue was resolved very quickly, unlikey the Venezuelan case. On ruling the Federal Appeals Court said:

“the State of California and its citizens will suffer material hardship by virtue of the enormous resources already invested in reliance on the election’s proceeding on the announced date”

That is what happens in a working Democracy with checks and balances and solid institutions, what is important remains important. Not like here…..The ACLU said it will not appeal.

We Venezuelans are very involved with the day to day going ons of the politics of our country. But try to imagine you did not know anything about Venezuela and what has happened and someone told you the following timeline for our requests for referenda during the last year:

–January: Opposition gathers the required signatures for a consultative referendum as allowed by the country’s Constitution on any important issue. The issue: Do you agree with the President’s handling of the country?

Result: Supreme Court Rules that the Electoral Board can only make decisions with four votes out of the five members. Given that one of them is pro-Chavez this would be impossible.

–February: An alternate member of the electoral Board who had resigned announces that since his resignation was never accepted by the National Assembly he will rejoin the Board.

Result: Supreme Court rules that he can not occupy the position and that the Electoral Board can fulfill all its duties but organize elections until a new Board is selected by the National Assembly. (Note, the Court never said the consultative referendum was not legal)

–February: Opposition gathers over the 20% of signatures necessary for a recall referendum which can not be requested until August.

–August: The President-controlled National Assembly fails to name the new Electoral Board, the Supreme Court steps in and a Board is named.

–August: Opposition turns in the signatures for the recall referendum

–September: New Electoral Board rejects the more than there million signatures requesting the referendum. The arguments: Badly posed question, untimely gathering of signatures and organization that collected signatures has no legal status to do it.

–September: New Electoral Board drafts regulations which would imply the recall referendum may not take place for at least seven moths.

What’s next? Is this reasonable? Isn’t there a pattern here? Is the world so stupid? Are we so stupid? You be the judge

We Venezuelans are very involved with the day to day going ons of the politics of our country. But try to imagine you did not know anything about Venezuela and what has happened and someone told you the following timeline for our requests for referenda during the last year:

–January: Opposition gathers the required signatures for a consultative referendum as allowed by the country’s Constitution on any important issue. The issue: Do you agree with the President’s handling of the country?

Result: Supreme Court Rules that the Electoral Board can only make decisions with four votes out of the five members. Given that one of them is pro-Chavez this would be impossible.

–February: An alternate member of the electoral Board who had resigned announces that since his resignation was never accepted by the National Assembly he will rejoin the Board.

Result: Supreme Court rules that he can not occupy the position and that the Electoral Board can fulfill all its duties but organize elections until a new Board is selected by the National Assembly. (Note, the Court never said the consultative referendum was not legal)

–February: Opposition gathers over the 20% of signatures necessary for a recall referendum which can not be requested until August.

–August: The President-controlled National Assembly fails to name the new Electoral Board, the Supreme Court steps in and a Board is named.

–August: Opposition turns in the signatures for the recall referendum

–September: New Electoral Board rejects the more than there million signatures requesting the referendum. The arguments: Badly posed question, untimely gathering of signatures and organization that collected signatures has no legal status to do it.

–September: New Electoral Board drafts regulations which would imply the recall referendum may not take place for at least seven moths.

What’s next? Is this reasonable? Isn’t there a pattern here? Is the world so stupid? Are we so stupid? You be the judge

A former worker of PDVSA, Wilmer Rangel, was taking pictures of an oil spill on Monday September 15^th. 2003 in the company of his wife. They are both detained and freed four days later. They are released on the conditions that:

-They have to visit the Court every fifteen days.

-They are prohibited from being close to where the “crime” took place and from all oil industry facilities.

-They can not leave the country without express authorization from the Court.

Who is the criminal here?