Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.
According to a PDVSA official in the local newspapers, Chinese companies will invest US$ 40 billion in the Orinoco oil belt of Venezuela, between now and 2016.
Let’s do the math:
Since all projects by law have PDVSA holding a 60% stake as a minimum, this implies that PDVSA will have to invest US$ 60 billion in five years or US$12 billion per year in the Chinese projects alone.
Add to that all of the other projects and the math is trivial:
At current oil prices, it ain’t going to happen.
With the tragedy of the rains flooding Venezuela, it would be improper to suggest responsibility for the many horrific scenes we are witnessing today. Natural phenomena can’t be predicted, you just need to have the best contingency plan possible just in case.
But the citizens of Vargas State can definetely complain. Eleven years ago they lived through exactly the same thing and nothing much has changed in that state. Remarkably Vargas is a very pro-Chavez state, although by now Chavez’ lead in that state has been cut significantly, with PSUV losing 16% of the vote in the recent elections.
Vargas could have been a showcase for the revolution if Chavez had wanted it to be after the tragic floods of 2000. It was just a matter of deciding it.
Let’s suppose the subsidy for gasoline had been cut in half given the national emergency in 2000. That means that PDVSA would have received some US$ 55 billlion in additional revenue. Assume also, that you let PDVSA keep half of that for its projects. You are left with US$27.5 billion. Further assume that you gave each state its fair share, Vargas would have received around one billion US dollars. Assume further that you would have used this money to build safe housing on safe ground. If each house cost US$ 25,000, you could have built 40,000 housing units during this time.
Well, estimates are that Vargas has around 300,000 inhabitants. At an average of four people per home, you could have relocated half the population of that state.
Of course, the numbers are more complicated than that, you also need infrastructure to protect the housing from flooding, roads and the like, but when you consider how much has been spent in foreign aid to Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and the like, how much has been spent on weapons and how much has been wasted on graft, there should have been plenty of money for this.
Sadly, Corpovargas never really got off the ground, experts were never called in and Chief Economist Hugo has been more interested in rifles and his glory than anything else.
Yes, something could have been done, but nothing is being done even today…
In the latest news from the wikileak, it turns out that the Devil itself has now been wikileaked for telling the US Embassy’s “Econoffs“, exactly what I have said publicly in my blog many times (like, for example, here) that Venezuela does not have the scientific capabilities to do a nuclear program. In fact. I am blunter in my blog than I show up in the wikileak, in the blog I say:
“I can not take Chavez’ nuclear program very seriously, beyond the exhibitionist aspects of it”
or
“To do anything in the nuclear field, you need people and very simply, Venezuela does not have them. It would take years for Venezuela to put together a group of nuclear scientists to perform a small project whether peaceful or not. Unfortunately, educating high level people like that has not been and is not a priority right now and there is no local talent available to even begin doing it locally. The Venezuelan science establishment is getting old and in nuclear physics in particular, the people I know of are mostly retired or in the process of retiring and there are few people coming up below them.”
and
“The only thing that would change my mind on this was to learn that the country was importing huge numbers of experts from other countries for such a project.”
or in another more recent post:
“Not one nano watt of nuclear power will be in place in Venezuela in ten years, unless someone discovers simple cold fusion with tap water and an ipod charger. Please, don’t make it more complicated than that, the revolution could not handle it.”
About the main revelation from the wikileaked cable is that I have a Ph.D. in Physics, something that many readers may not know…
Another giant step by wikileaks into revealing public information…
(Thanks Larry Nieves for noting this to me)
So, through the magic of the bad, evil world of wikileaks we have learned so far the following:
-Some French diplomat says Chavez is crazy
What else is new? Even Edmundo Chirinos was saying that like in 2000
-Cuban intelligence officers compete with Venezuelan intelligence services for Hugo’s attention.
Well, duh, we have known about that for years. In fact, anyone that believes that the words Venezuelan intelligence services can all be used at the same time is out of touch.
-Venezuela’s Embassy sends a cable saying that medical services have deteriorated.
Jeez, replace medical with any word and you got a correct statement.
-Brazil’s Defense Minister all but acknowledged the presence of the FARC in Venezuela, except that admitting that would “ruin Brazil’s ability to mediate”
Wow! FARC in Venezuela! Who would have thought that? Those Brazilians are really clever. Do you mean they vacation in Venezuela? Or do you want videos proving it?
-The US is trying to isolate Venezuela.
You are kidding me? I thought Venezuela was trying to undermine the US openly, then isn’t that called fair play? Didn’t we know about it? Nothing new, that’s like saying Castro wants to end capitalism. Oh? You mean Hugo wants to do that too?
-Israel wants to blow Iran out of the water…
Change Israel for Iran and what else is new? It’s love at first blast, no?
So, so far, not much of interest, after all, who cares about Cristina and her mental state before or after Nestor’s death? Maybe now its more interesting. I am still falling sleep.
But if you ask for Hillary’s resignation Hugo, you should have resigned long ago, like you should have never been sworn in, just for being so out of touch. Do you know it’s raining?…
I was going to write about the fact that the Chavez Government stole Hato Piñero from its rightful owners, only to give it away to the Lybians for God knows what reason. But then I saw this Editorial in Sunday’s El Nacional and decided it was just best to translate it.
The Sad revolution, Editorial from El Nacional
Libya in Cojedes
Just about three years ago, the President traveled to Cojedes, and among his innumerable promises (you can’t deny the the richness of his imagination), he told the people of the area that the expropriation of Hato Piñero would take place ” with the objective of forming a unit of socialist development unit ” The revolutionary leader added: “We will place a large development center for the people of Cojedes and all the people of Venezuela and its products will not be to enrich minorities, because that is capitalism. The meat, food, animals, vegetables, milk, cheese, corn and everything will be produced here will provide cheap food and goods for the people of Venezuela. ”
The President, addressing the state’s governor, said, “Continue following down that road, Theodore. Hit hard the large farm estates and the capitalist speculators, always in defense of the people” He added that “the national government is committed to the recovery of businesses and estates and houses of leisure abandoned to consolidate projects in order to conform the socialist economy.”
That was in the midst of the campaign for the constitutional referendum in 2007. Chavez traveled around the country expropriating and promising villas and castles. Hato Piñero, a farming unit located between the municipalities of Pao and Girardot, in the southeastern state of Cojedes, had special connotations because it was sheltering large areas and preserved several species. It was one of the rare places in Venezuela, intimately connected with our history and traditions.
Three years later, there is no such socialist development nor is Hato Piñero being devoted to the enjoyment of the people of Cojedes. The decline replaced the splendor of nature that was preserved with passion with the care of the species that make their habitat there. Then after such demagoguery came the surprise filtered, incidentally, when the commitments signed with the Arab Socialist Republic of Libya, the country ruled for half a century by Colonel Gaddafi were revealed. It just so happens that Hato Piñero has been negotiated with Libya to develop it. (We Venezuelans are useless).
This is more serious than people realize when they see these stories lost among so many that overwhelm and confuse. We are an open country and we have no discrimination. But for those familiar with the ideas of Colonel Gaddafi criticized for his worldwide sponsorship of causes incompatible with freedom, and familiar with his doctrine of the Green Book, the handing out of Hato Piñero to Libya generates all sorts of anguish. Gaddafi will install in the 75,000 hectares a Lybian colony, and, when Venezuelans awaken, we will find an irreversible fait accompli. Grave. Very grave.
Hugo Chavez is not going to be very happy when he sees this graph (click on it to see it larger) showing the relative unimportance of Venezuela in terms of material in the wikileaks files taken from US Embassy cables. The dark blue bar shows the number of messages relating to Venezuela, a quarter of those from Iran. In fact, the juiciest stuff so far comes not from the US, but from France as French diplomat Levitte calls Hugo crazy and suggesting Chavez is turning Venezuela into Zimbabwe. I wonder if Levitte knows Zimbabwe does not have oil.
There is also some stuff about Palestinian connections to Chavez and Venezuela, but nothing major. Hugo will be mighty mad that he ranks so low on importance on the US’ radar. Maybe he will pick a fight with France now.
Alek Boyd has been hitting hard lately with his relentless digging, catching a few lies by pro-Chavez foreigners or pseud-foreigners. His latest coup is being able to prove that Colombian Senator Piedad Cordoba has been lying when she says that she has never received money from the Venezuelan Government for political activities. Recall that Colombian police said they found a document about such funding in the papers of dead guerrilla leader “Mon-Joy”
What Alek did was go through the extensive documents he has on the Venezuelan Information Office (VIO) obtained as public documents from the US Department of Justice. And what he found is shown in this table, which shows that the Venezuelan Information Office helped Cordoba obtain at least ten separate meetings for lobbying for Cordoba on both Colombia and human rights, clearly an activity “funded” and supported by the Venezuelan Government, however indirectly.
Boyd has been on a great streak, showing and questioning the story of “la novia de Venezuela” Eva Golinger, whose cedula number does not jive with her story and her lies and violations of US laws, as well as showing how lawyer Marino Alvarado, of human rights organization PROVEA, who has been defending former ETA member Arturo Cubillas, received his Venezuela nationality in 2005 under Chavez.
Way to go Alek!
Today we get the news that the Government wants to extend the so called “Muzzle Law” to the Internet. While some have reported this as a “rumor”, this is not simply a rumor as this document clearly shows. It is a proposal made to the Venezuelan Vice-President Elias Jaua by the country’s telecom commission CONATEL and aims to:
“Have the State protect collective interests, particularly those of kids and adolescents, as receptors of messages via…electronic media, through resounding measures that would allow the control by these actors for the effective compliance with the laws”
later the document adds:
“Inclusion of electronic media as part of the Law; Due to the fact that this service has turned, thanks to the policies of the Bolivarian Government, in one of the main forms of communication which are received by the collective in general. basically without regulation in terms of content, which requires that the Government insure that it may be “apt” especially to kids and adolescents, because currently content is transmitted with apologies for crime which attempt against the peace, security and citizen education, it is necessary to establish responsibilities for those that issue these measures, because of the consequences it may have, as well as the adoption of immediate measures that allow for the withdrawal of such content”
Of course, this is nothing new, it just formalizes the intent of the Government to penalize the use of the Internet in any way it wants, punishing those responsible and forcing for the withdrawal of such messages.
The content is clear, while it aims at protecting kids and young people, making it sound as if the Government wants to control inapropiate content, it later includes messages that attempt against the peace and security as well as theeducation of citizens. i.e, anything the Government finds offensive.
Of course, to enforce these laws, the Government will have to be able to block content coming from abroad, since it will not be able to to force “the withdrawal of such content” and give way to all sorts of controls by the Government over the Internet.
This is simply an extension and formalization of previous actions, as offensive tweets by Venezuelan twitters have already been persecuted, showing clearly that the Government can pinpoint who and where tweets using cell phones originate (All cases so far have been those associated with cellphones, no land lines). Thus, this would become a more formal excuse to block sites, content and scare and persecute and prosecute content depending on Chavez’ whims.
Nothing new, just more of the same. Less democracy, more censorship, more totalitarianism by a Government that believes only in that and has a total disregard for people’s rights and democracy.
A reader was kind enough to send me a report by Raymond James, a well respected regional broker in the US. Here is the conclusion, to a report entitled: “Muchos Problemas: Can the Venezuelan Oil Industry Survive Another Decade of Chavez?”:
Conclusion
“Venezuela’s 40% oil production decline since 2000 – nearly the world’s worst track record – is a story of politically motivated mismanagement on a grand scale. Chavez, in power since 1998, is poised to win re-election in 2012, and with term limits abolished, there is no end in sight to his virulently anti-business energy policy. We project a 2% production decline in 2011, with flattish production thereafter. PdVSA’s production targets of 5 MMbpd by 2015 and 6.5 MMbpd by 2020 are good for comic relief, but nothing else in our view. It would take a policy shift of drastic proportions to turn around PdVSA, and under Chavez that just ain’t happening. From a big picture standpoint, production declines in Venezuela put further downward pressure on OPEC’s already limited excess production capacity – a key element of our structurally bullish long-term stance on oil.”
I only disagree with “poised to win in 2012” we shall see…
Thanks to the anonymous reader.
More democracy, less Government, can it be simpler than that?
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The Devil's Excrement 
