The Devil's Excrement

Showcase 1. Extending a decree that dates as far back as a year ago, the Venezuelan Government decreed once again a firing freeze in the country’s labor markets for an additional six months. This means that anyone that makes less than a certain amount can not be fired. In practice there are a number of ways around this decree that does little to improve the economy. In fact, some companies do not want to hire new workers as they are afraid the freeze will continue to be extended. Another demonstration that these people have no clue as to how economics works. Maybe they should decree full employment!

Showcase 2. On the same day that the Federation of Construction companies annouced a 67% drop in construction, the Minsiter of Planning suggested in Chavez’ Sunday nationwide address that the coming boom in construction will create a shortage of cement. Just for reference construction GDP during Chavez’ administration has been as follows: 1999: -16.5%, 2000: -2.7%, 2001: +13.5%, 2002:-17.8% 2003: (First Quarter): -64%. As an example, when Cemex Venezuela can not sell all of its production locally, it goes abroad, so its plants don’t stop. According to Cemex’ annual report only last year, local cement demand dropped by 21% to 23%, this suggests over half of its capacity is being exported. If I remember numbers correctly, this implies the comapny must be exporting over 60% of its production. Thus, the “boom” that Mr. Giordani is projecting would require an increase of at least 100% in construction for shortages in cement to occur. Dream on!

It is amazing how bad the coverage has been of the protests in both Iran and Hong Kong in conventional media. In one case, people are asking for more democracy, in the other people are defending what they have. Remarkable how little the world cares. In fact, to follow it well you have to read blogs where the coverage is excellent and complete. You can read about both at GlennReynolds.com and follow the links. Doing exactly this, I found an open letter to the Iranian people which contains a paragraph which applies to my country and reflects one of my biggest concerns about Venezuela in a future without Chavez:

Here is the key to making a stable democracy: the losers have to know that they will be safe. Those on the losing side of a liberal revolution or on the losing side of a democratic election have to understand in advance that they will not be killed. They must know their views will be respected. They must believe in their bones that their rights will be protected by the victorious majority.

That will indeed be the key to success if and when we get rid of Chavez. We have to have a Government that includes all people, that it does not exclude anyone. This will be the only way to make a true democracy for all Venezuelans. The future can not be about revenge or making the chavistas feel as threatened as we do today, it has to be about the laws and the Courts deciding who committed crimes and the Government making life better for everyone. It has to be about the Attorney General and the people’s Ombudsman doing their jobs of defending the rights of everyone. Otherwise, our future and our democracy will be as compromised then as they are today.

It is amazing how bad the coverage has been of the protests in both Iran and Hong Kong in conventional media. In one case, people are asking for more democracy, in the other people are defending what they have. Remarkable how little the world cares. In fact, to follow it well you have to read blogs where the coverage is excellent and complete. You can read about both at GlennReynolds.com and follow the links. Doing exactly this, I found an open letter to the Iranian people which contains a paragraph which applies to my country and reflects one of my biggest concerns about Venezuela in a future without Chavez:

Here is the key to making a stable democracy: the losers have to know that they will be safe. Those on the losing side of a liberal revolution or on the losing side of a democratic election have to understand in advance that they will not be killed. They must know their views will be respected. They must believe in their bones that their rights will be protected by the victorious majority.

That will indeed be the key to success if and when we get rid of Chavez. We have to have a Government that includes all people, that it does not exclude anyone. This will be the only way to make a true democracy for all Venezuelans. The future can not be about revenge or making the chavistas feel as threatened as we do today, it has to be about the laws and the Courts deciding who committed crimes and the Government making life better for everyone. It has to be about the Attorney General and the people’s Ombudsman doing their jobs of defending the rights of everyone. Otherwise, our future and our democracy will be as compromised then as they are today.

General Francisco Uson was Chavez’ Minister of Finance on April 11th., he resigned that same night while Chavez was meeting with his Cabinet at the Miraflores Palace. Uson never joined the dissenting military and has been low profile since then. Today he gives an interview in El Nacional (subscription only). I found the answer to this question quite relevant to the question of who was responsible for the massacre that day:

Q: You resigned on April 11th. which was surely seeing by Chavistas as treason. But did the dissident military see it as oportunism?

A. It is possible that they saw it that way. But my resignation occured because the Ministry of Finance is located just where the massacre took place. I saw what happened there. I had also witnessed the Cabinet meeting on the night of April 7th., in which, even if it was not said explicitly that violence would be generated, you could see that a violent attitude would be assumed in the following days.

From a first hand witness…..

Hugo Chavez was his undemocratic self yesterday when he adressed the more than 800 delegates of MVR’s Patriotic Council. Chavez said in no uncertain terms: “The recall referendum will not happen” (El referendo no va). Now, you have to understand that the referendum is a Constitutional right, which has to take place no more than 90 days after the petition is handed in. The opposition has more than twice the required signatures for the petition. Thus, how does he plan to stop it? The only way is by using tricks or stepping out of democracy. In the end, both are the same, anyway.

In another dictatorial act in the Chavez-controlled National Assembly, the President of the Assembly Francisco Ameliach removed Deputy Guillermo Palacios from the Finance Committe of the National Assembly and appointed close Chavez supporter Nicolas Maduro. Palacios belongs to a small party that supported Chavez,  Polo Patriotico, but has been dissenting with the Government particularly on isuses of new debt. According to the regulations, in order to remove Palacios, the full Assembly had to vote on the issue, but given the flimsy majority the Government has in the Assembly, they decided to skirt the issue. Pro-Chavez Deputies justified the move as an internal decision, which it is not, while the President of the Finance Committee said it quite clearly: Palacios was removed because: ” he was not acting in agreement with the commitment that we have to defend the process of change led by President Hugo Chavez Frias”. So much for democracy, rules, laws and dissent. The dictatorial spirit of Stalin lives on in Venezuela!”

Barely had I finished writing last night on the dangers of the confrontation at the oil camps in Western Venezuela, that reports arrived that there were as many as 27 people injured in clashes with the National Guard. Violence erupted when Chavistas attempted to force fired oil workers from their homes. The workers began defending themselves agaisnt the invasion forcing the National Guard to intervene. Later the National Guard moved oil workers from a Square in Cabimas where only a block away Chavista groups were allowed to stay without intervention. I worry about the possible escalation of violence that these confrontations may have.

Despite indications that at today’s session the National Assembly would name the Electoral Commission, no agreement was reached at the end. Essentially, the two groups don’t agree on the names. It looks like the Supreme Court will name them if the Assembly does not move fast. Anything may happen in that case.

A very tense and potentially explosive situation is taking place at the oil camps in the oil field in Zulia and Falcon states. Essentially, fired PDVSA workers who live in PDVSA housing are fighting in the Courts to be able to stay in their houses until their suits against PDVSA have been decided. Some lower Courts have ordered the workers to leave, only to be reversed by other Courts, either Labor ones or ruling that kicking them out would violate the children rights. Despite this, the National Guard and PDVSA have maintained constant pressure on the residents. In one camp, the National Guard surrounded the camp and was not even allowing people back into it. To compound the matter, two nights ago buses of Chavez’ supporters began arriving at one camp and were actually allowed in by the National Guard. In the end, the National Guard arrested 17 oil workers and none of the chavistas, after using tear gas on the workers.

This is to me potentially very explosive. People are being threatened with being kicked out of their homes, while others are being promised jobs and housing that they are unlikely to get anyway. In the end, the two sides could have a tragic confrontation. Is this what the Government is looking for in order to avoid the referendum?