The Devil's Excrement

The National Electoral Council has been at the center of attention for the last few months. On Thursday and Friday, inspections by the Attroney General’s office raised the ire of the opposition as two judges even attempted to take away some signatures from the consultative referendum which never took place (The judges have been denounced in the Supreme Court for exceeding their powers). On Friday, in an intriguing turn of events, the National Guard actually blocked the inspection attempt, while another Court did a visual inspection at the request of a Deputy from one of the parties which backs Hugo Chavez. Today, the tension continued or intensified as there was a fire at the building where the Electoral Board is, raising eyebrows among those that do not believe in coincidences (including me). Now, it may be  fortuitus, but you have to remember that most buildings here are made of brick and fires are much less common than in the US. Moreover, the clouds of smoke were huge and a couple of dozen members of Chavez’ “Bolivarian Circles” were there protesting from the moment the TV stations started broadcasting the fire. Reportedly, it was an electrical fire caused by a short-circuit, but the event makes everyone very uneasy. You can read the news about the fire here in English, or here and here in Spanish.

Two articles today in El Nacional (page A 20, by subscription only) and El Universal page 1-22 on international reports on PDVSA and the country’s difficulties with oil production.

The one in El Universal focuses on the report by the EIA (Energy Information Administration) which says that PDVSA’s exports are down by 25% so far this year in dollar terms.

The one in El Nacional has some interesting numbers and is base on reports by the IDB (International Development Bank) and CAF (Andean Corporation for Development). CAF projects that if the company does not invest US$ 4 to 5 billion to recover production, it will have a cash flow shortage that will be up to US$ 11 billion by 2008, this assuming the Government stops drawing dividends from the company which is unlikely to happen. According to an unidentified source at CAF, the only recourse the Government may have is increase the price of gasoline, a highly unpopular move (The price of gas in Venezuela is currently 15 US$ cents a gallon at the parallel market exchange rate.

The IDB report concludes that PDVSA’s own oil production has gone down by 1.2 million of barrels of oil per day since 1999. Total oil production is two hundred thousand barrels of oil less than in 1990 and PDVSA has compensated the drop partially with the operational agreements of the oil opening (much criticized by Chavez) which add half a million barrels per day and the strategic associations of the Orinoco heavy oil belt which contribute 450,000 barrels of oil a day.

These numbers are very scary to me; the only way that the standard of living of people can improve is for there to be economic growth. The private sector is doing terrible and it sounds like PDVSA will do worse going forward. This makes it impossible to expect any improvement in the standard of living unless this course is reversed. Even scarier would be if the price of oil were to fall….

Two articles today in El Nacional (page A 20, by subscription only) and El Universal page 1-22 on international reports on PDVSA and the country’s difficulties with oil production.

The one in El Universal focuses on the report by the EIA (Energy Information Administration) which says that PDVSA’s exports are down by 25% so far this year in dollar terms.

The one in El Nacional has some interesting numbers and is base on reports by the IDB (International Development Bank) and CAF (Andean Corporation for Development). CAF projects that if the company does not invest US$ 4 to 5 billion to recover production, it will have a cash flow shortage that will be up to US$ 11 billion by 2008, this assuming the Government stops drawing dividends from the company which is unlikely to happen. According to an unidentified source at CAF, the only recourse the Government may have is increase the price of gasoline, a highly unpopular move (The price of gas in Venezuela is currently 15 US$ cents a gallon at the parallel market exchange rate.

The IDB report concludes that PDVSA’s own oil production has gone down by 1.2 million of barrels of oil per day since 1999. Total oil production is two hundred thousand barrels of oil less than in 1990 and PDVSA has compensated the drop partially with the operational agreements of the oil opening (much criticized by Chavez) which add half a million barrels per day and the strategic associations of the Orinoco heavy oil belt which contribute 450,000 barrels of oil a day.

These numbers are very scary to me; the only way that the standard of living of people can improve is for there to be economic growth. The private sector is doing terrible and it sounds like PDVSA will do worse going forward. This makes it impossible to expect any improvement in the standard of living unless this course is reversed. Even scarier would be if the price of oil were to fall….

Good article by Juan Raffalli in page 1-17 of El Universal entitled “Falsehoods about the recall referendum”. Some highlights:

–It’s necessary to consider first the requests for recall referenda for regional officials. False. The same regulation that establishes that requests have to be handled in the order in which they are received  states that in the interest of public interest priority may be given to requests that were introduced later. It is obvious that the presidential recall referendum has the highest national interest and it was thus established in the international agreement signed on May 29^th. by both the Government and the opposition.

–Before the recall referendum the national Electoral Commission has to be restructured in the next six months (Chávez dixit). False. The Organic Law of electoral power establishes among its transient articles that the Electoral Board has to adjust itself to the law within six months, but that period is a maximum temporal reference. But nowhere in that law is it established that there can be no electoral events simultaneously. If that were the case, the right to vote would be suspended, which is not possible even in the case of states of exception.

–Special regulations are required for the recall referendum: In any case, it would be regulations for the internal functioning (of the CNE). The Constitution expressly states that no fundamental right, which includes the right to vote, can be limited or suspended due to the lack of regulations. The agreement last May 29^th.  and prior decisions by the Supreme Court give full validity to the Suffrage Law which has articles about recall referenda which are perfectly applicable to the one in question.

–The signatures are fraudulent: It has been said that due to non-essential formalisms one can not sacrifice the right to express or petition, which would attempt against articles 5 and 62 of the Constitution. Moreover, what other requirement could be asked of those that sign the petition. Their blood group, their license plate? Only the people are entitled to initiate calling for a recall referendum according to Article 72 of the Constitution, which is explicitly mentioned in the petition. Could it be that more than two million people have to go to a public notary to certify their signatures? And how were the signatures verified to register in front of the CNE, Chavez’ MVR or to register hundreds of candidates to the Constituent Assembly? In any case, the best thing is that in the end if we were to have to collect the signatures anew, that event will be in itself an anticipated recall act so that for that one that may be recalled the remedy might be worse than the illness.

Good article by Juan Raffalli in page 1-17 of El Universal entitled “Falsehoods about the recall referendum”. Some highlights:

–It’s necessary to consider first the requests for recall referenda for regional officials. False. The same regulation that establishes that requests have to be handled in the order in which they are received  states that in the interest of public interest priority may be given to requests that were introduced later. It is obvious that the presidential recall referendum has the highest national interest and it was thus established in the international agreement signed on May 29^th. by both the Government and the opposition.

–Before the recall referendum the national Electoral Commission has to be restructured in the next six months (Chávez dixit). False. The Organic Law of electoral power establishes among its transient articles that the Electoral Board has to adjust itself to the law within six months, but that period is a maximum temporal reference. But nowhere in that law is it established that there can be no electoral events simultaneously. If that were the case, the right to vote would be suspended, which is not possible even in the case of states of exception.

–Special regulations are required for the recall referendum: In any case, it would be regulations for the internal functioning (of the CNE). The Constitution expressly states that no fundamental right, which includes the right to vote, can be limited or suspended due to the lack of regulations. The agreement last May 29^th.  and prior decisions by the Supreme Court give full validity to the Suffrage Law which has articles about recall referenda which are perfectly applicable to the one in question.

–The signatures are fraudulent: It has been said that due to non-essential formalisms one can not sacrifice the right to express or petition, which would attempt against articles 5 and 62 of the Constitution. Moreover, what other requirement could be asked of those that sign the petition. Their blood group, their license plate? Only the people are entitled to initiate calling for a recall referendum according to Article 72 of the Constitution, which is explicitly mentioned in the petition. Could it be that more than two million people have to go to a public notary to certify their signatures? And how were the signatures verified to register in front of the CNE, Chavez’ MVR or to register hundreds of candidates to the Constituent Assembly? In any case, the best thing is that in the end if we were to have to collect the signatures anew, that event will be in itself an anticipated recall act so that for that one that may be recalled the remedy might be worse than the illness.

The Vth. Republic,  that fake which claims to change things, showed three cases of how the word “justice” is abused and misused under Chavez’ regime:

-The Head of the Supreme Court said this morning in a TV interview that the Constitution did not say that Chavez could not be a candidate even if his mandate was revoked. Now, let’s look at one aspect of what the Constitution which defines “absolute absence” as death …disability or a mandate recall, as possible reasons for it. Now, according to the illustrious President of the Court, nothing stops Chavez from running, well, it seems to me that if Chavez were dead, the same interpretation would say the same. He might be dead, which is an absolute absence, but he could still run, no?? Way to go Ivan Rincon, you really know your logic or your law. Who knows, maybe we could run Romulo Betancourt or Renny Ottolina for President, they are dead, but their particular “absolute” absence should not stand in the way of the well being of the country, no?

-Yesterday, the Attorney General’s office showed up at the National Electoral Commission with cops with rifles to “check” on the signatures for the petition for the consultative referendum. Now, imagine this, the Attorney General’s office is extremely diligent about checking the signatures of a referendum that will never take place, but we have yet to find out who killed or may have killed the 19 people who died on April 10th. 2002. Weird justice isn’t it? Supposedly 120 people of the more than 2 million that signed the petition  for something that will never happen stir up the Attorney General’s office into seeking “justice”, but the 19 people who died, I guess they are dead, so they can’t file a formal complaint and thus their cases are hopeless or irrelevant in this “revolutionary” system.

-Finally, reporters asked Chavez’ candidate for  the Governorship of Anzoategui State Tarek William Saab if the six candidacies named by Chavez two weeks ago were not in violation of the Electoral code. His answer? Well, using “revolutionary” logic, he said that Chavez’ candidates were not campaigning, but pre-campaigning. Thus, while the opposition is being held to the highest standards, Chavez’ MVR can use new revolutionary concepts to skirt and cheat the law.

Such is the state of injustice in the Vth. Republic……

The Venezuelan Vice-President presented an accusation to the Attorney General’s office against Sumate, the organization that gathered and prepared the signatures for the recall referendum. A legal analysis of the accusation shows that the charges are so ridiculous as to being ludicrous. Sumate is a civil association and thus can not be considered to be a political party as the Vice-President assumes in his accusation. He says Sumate “usurped” function of the Electoral Board by revising the signatures and purging them. Well, what are the people supposed to do? Spontaneously gather the signatures and hand them in? The accusation also says that Sumate collected money for its efforts in coordinating, collecting and handing the signatures “without receiving aid from the Electoral Council”. Well, the Vice-President should know that the Electoral Law simply bans the Council from giving funds to civil associations like Sumate. Thus, the charges against Sumate are ludicrous and represent another smokescreen by the Chávez administration.

The Vice-President Jose Vicente Rangel is so cynical that today he went to visit the Electoral Board and spoke about not interfering with the electoral power. His most cynical statement was: “People are saying that the Government will do anything in its power to stop the recall referendum. Nothing is furthest from the truth. We may have opinions that is all”. Yeah!Yeah!Yeah!

Rangel also complained that he did not think it was proper that the US Ambassador visited the Electoral Commission to offer technical help. Of course, this is in preparation for blocking the possibility of foreign observers being present during the recall referendum.

The Venezuelan Vice-President presented an accusation to the Attorney General’s office against Sumate, the organization that gathered and prepared the signatures for the recall referendum. A legal analysis of the accusation shows that the charges are so ridiculous as to being ludicrous. Sumate is a civil association and thus can not be considered to be a political party as the Vice-President assumes in his accusation. He says Sumate “usurped” function of the Electoral Board by revising the signatures and purging them. Well, what are the people supposed to do? Spontaneously gather the signatures and hand them in? The accusation also says that Sumate collected money for its efforts in coordinating, collecting and handing the signatures “without receiving aid from the Electoral Council”. Well, the Vice-President should know that the Electoral Law simply bans the Council from giving funds to civil associations like Sumate. Thus, the charges against Sumate are ludicrous and represent another smokescreen by the Chávez administration.

The Vice-President Jose Vicente Rangel is so cynical that today he went to visit the Electoral Board and spoke about not interfering with the electoral power. His most cynical statement was: “People are saying that the Government will do anything in its power to stop the recall referendum. Nothing is furthest from the truth. We may have opinions that is all”. Yeah!Yeah!Yeah!

Rangel also complained that he did not think it was proper that the US Ambassador visited the Electoral Commission to offer technical help. Of course, this is in preparation for blocking the possibility of foreign observers being present during the recall referendum.

United Press International distributed this article on Venezuela’s links to terrorists. I don’t know what type of due diligence UPI does before putting out something like this, but the charges are certainly quite serious.

Russel also sent this article in which US policy analysts respond to Chavez’ charges at the Conference on desertification in Cuba. While I have talked about Chavez’ terrible economic policies, our President had the audacity to criticize the handling of the enviroment by industrialized nations. While I will not get into that topic, Chavez’ enviromental policies have been from negligent to non-existent. His current Minister of the Enviroment is simply ignorant and is alowing PDVSA to contaminate both air and water in the name of the glorious “revolution”.