Some definitions and clarifications on the machine coincidences in the recall vote

August 22, 2004

Friday night I wrote that somebody had to be lying because the numbers did not match, that is the Carter center using CNE data, was reaching a different conclusion about “coincidences” than the CD. Yesterday, I managed to get a hold of a spreadsheet with the original data. I looked at some states and saw many of these “coincidences” but needed a little break, so I did not look much at it but an analyst friend, who reads the blog regularly did and sent me his results based on 19042 machines out of the total of 23874 machines or notebooks (Some notebooks had no machines associated with them and this data is from the first day): 

– If you look at how many numbers repeat per table (“mesa”) then you get:


402   coincidences for the Si vote and

311   for the No vote


This is what the Carter Center and the OAS were talking about


If you look at the polling center level (which may contain more than one mesa) then you get:


805   centers have Si coincidences

647   centers have No coincidences


If you add the number of machines in the 805 centers that are involved in the coincidences you get 1879 machines which is what the CD has been talking about.


So, there was no lying on this subject, it was only a matter of nomenclature and both sides being extremely sloppy as they were taking about much different things. Now we need some modeling! Still waiting for volunteers!

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