The Devil's Excrement

It used to be that abstention in Venezuela did not impact results of elections. Basically, pollsters would be told that almost everyone would vote, abstention would be higher and the result would be the same as predicted. Abstention would simply have the same distribution across all social strata.

This is the only thing that is different this time around. With the registration of 2 million new voters between June and July, only 200,000 of which are new eligible voters, the effects of abstention will be different. High abstention helps the Si vote, low abstention helps the No vote. Why? Simple, the 1.8 million new voters come from the class D and E strata of the population who lean towards Chavez. These are voters who were eligible to vote in previous elections but did not even bother to register.

Most Venezuelans dislike polls, they claim they are never accurate, they never get it right, they don’t poll in the barrios. This is incorrect. As an example, in the 1998 and 2000 elections most polls predicted a Chavez win, even if only a few got the numbers within the statistical error of their study. What happens every election is that new polling firms appear with no track record and people don’t know how distinguish one pollster from the other.

For the last two weeks, reputable polling forms have been giving results that range from a 9% win for the NO to a 6% win for the SI. However, those that have a track record give an edge to the NO vote with a range of 4-6% in favor of the NO. As in previous elections, voters are saying that they are going to go out and vote, with abstention ranging from 15-20%. If abstention is higher, the result changes rapidly, above 30% the SI begins to win.

The question is whether abstention will be higher than these levels or not. Some argue that it will be low because the country is so polarized. I disagree. I see no reason for abstention to drop sharply below 30%. In the previous four elections abstention was 18% in 1988, 40% in 1993, 36.6% in 1998 and 43.7% in 2000. It is hard for me to believe that if abstention was so high in the heyday of Chavez’ popularity, it will become low as the aura around him has dimmed. People that don’t vote, don’t do it because they simply do not believe it makes a difference, that no matter who they vote for, things will not change. They are disenfranchised.

The Government and Chavez’ Comando Maisanta could change this by mobilizing voters to the polls on Sunday. But we are not talking of mobilizing 100 or 200 thousand people to a march, we are talking about the mobilization of a million plus reluctant voters to make the race close. After seeing Sunday’s campaign closing in Caracas and the two failed attempts to bring Chavez to close the campaign in Zulia state, I just don’t believe it is possible. Thus, it would be reasonable to expect levels like in 1998 when the withdrawal from the race by two candidates a couple of weeks before the election introduced enough confusion in the race, that people were motivated to go and vote, abstention was then 36.6%. I expect it to be around that same level, maybe dropping a couple of points because of the militancy of the opposition and not the Chavistas.

What this means in numbers is that if the number of people that go out and vote tops 9.5 million a victory by the NO is insured, below that, Si edges the NO out.

Given the abstention I am expecting, then the SI vote edges out the NO vote on Sunday  by two or thee hundred thousand votes and Chavez is recalled. 

It used to be that abstention in Venezuela did not impact results of elections. Basically, pollsters would be told that almost everyone would vote, abstention would be higher and the result would be the same as predicted. Abstention would simply have the same distribution across all social strata.

This is the only thing that is different this time around. With the registration of 2 million new voters between June and July, only 200,000 of which are new eligible voters, the effects of abstention will be different. High abstention helps the Si vote, low abstention helps the No vote. Why? Simple, the 1.8 million new voters come from the class D and E strata of the population who lean towards Chavez. These are voters who were eligible to vote in previous elections but did not even bother to register.

Most Venezuelans dislike polls, they claim they are never accurate, they never get it right, they don’t poll in the barrios. This is incorrect. As an example, in the 1998 and 2000 elections most polls predicted a Chavez win, even if only a few got the numbers within the statistical error of their study. What happens every election is that new polling firms appear with no track record and people don’t know how distinguish one pollster from the other.

For the last two weeks, reputable polling forms have been giving results that range from a 9% win for the NO to a 6% win for the SI. However, those that have a track record give an edge to the NO vote with a range of 4-6% in favor of the NO. As in previous elections, voters are saying that they are going to go out and vote, with abstention ranging from 15-20%. If abstention is higher, the result changes rapidly, above 30% the SI begins to win.

The question is whether abstention will be higher than these levels or not. Some argue that it will be low because the country is so polarized. I disagree. I see no reason for abstention to drop sharply below 30%. In the previous four elections abstention was 18% in 1988, 40% in 1993, 36.6% in 1998 and 43.7% in 2000. It is hard for me to believe that if abstention was so high in the heyday of Chavez’ popularity, it will become low as the aura around him has dimmed. People that don’t vote, don’t do it because they simply do not believe it makes a difference, that no matter who they vote for, things will not change. They are disenfranchised.

The Government and Chavez’ Comando Maisanta could change this by mobilizing voters to the polls on Sunday. But we are not talking of mobilizing 100 or 200 thousand people to a march, we are talking about the mobilization of a million plus reluctant voters to make the race close. After seeing Sunday’s campaign closing in Caracas and the two failed attempts to bring Chavez to close the campaign in Zulia state, I just don’t believe it is possible. Thus, it would be reasonable to expect levels like in 1998 when the withdrawal from the race by two candidates a couple of weeks before the election introduced enough confusion in the race, that people were motivated to go and vote, abstention was then 36.6%. I expect it to be around that same level, maybe dropping a couple of points because of the militancy of the opposition and not the Chavistas.

What this means in numbers is that if the number of people that go out and vote tops 9.5 million a victory by the NO is insured, below that, Si edges the NO out.

Given the abstention I am expecting, then the SI vote edges out the NO vote on Sunday  by two or thee hundred thousand votes and Chavez is recalled. 

While campaigning ended last night, there were still some ads on VTV during the day for the NO vote, confirming that the CNE could care less. But the Government did its bit in promoting the Si vote when it basically showed the country for one hour and live, why the Chavez Government needs to be revoked.

At about 1 PM four employees of CONATEL, the telecom regulator showed up at Globovision, for what was called a “routine” visit by Conatel engineers. Routine visits are done by appointment, but anything is possible in this revolution. The Government officials began inspecting the TV station and were supposedly checking the frequency of transmissions, but clearly knew little about microwave and such things.

While all of this was taking place, other officials began showing up at the other three Caracas TV stations, Televen, RCTV and Venevision. Imagine four simultaneous “routine” visits to the four main private TV stations in the country.

The officials kept asking questions of how things worked, asking for things they could not ask for without a warrant and all of this was being seeing by most Venezuelans as these four stations have a rating of more than 80% of the Venezuelan audience.

Curiously no inspection was being carried out at the Government’s TV station VTV. Perhaps the funniest moment was when a reporter asked the President of Globovision if CONATEL had returned the microwave equipment taken from that station eight months ago, to which he replied that no, they had not, but he was hopeful that on Monday the new President Jose Vicente Rangel would order CONATEL to return it.

After about an hour of this harassment, all four teams from CONATEL got phone calls and they all suddenly left without an explanation or even filling the paperwork required from an inspection whether routine or not. A Director of CONATEL said that he ordered the procedures stopped because they could not create a “media show” with the routine inspections. However, the show was on, the international media had already gone to the stations and in one of them an interview with a CNE Director was interrupted by the inspection.

To top it all off, the Minister of Information and Telecommunications, Jesse Chacon came on TV (forcing all TV channels to carry the statement), to say that this was routine and it was to insure that there was enough bandwidth for international could carry the news of the recall referendum. Of course, he gave no explanation of why no inspection was carried out at the official TV station VTV.

All in all, good advertising for the Si vote, more harassment by the Government, but both Venezuela and the world were watching. Thank You Jesse!

From today’s Reuters, statements by Minister of Energy and Mines Rafael Ramirez, not exactly the words expected from a true democrat.

   CARACAS, Venezuela, Aug 13 (Reuters) – Venezuelan oil workers would refuse to accept the defeat of President Hugo Chavez in Sunday’s recall referendum on his rule, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said Friday.

   Ramirez did not make clear what the oil workers would do if Chavez loses the vote. The South American country is the world’s No. 5 oil exporter and a top supplier to the U.S. market.

   “Nobody will accept it. If Venezuela enters into a period of instability, well, I don’t see prices having any limit,” Ramirez told reporters.

   “There is no way he will be defeated. There is no way the people would accept it, including our oil workers,” he said.

   Oil prices hovered near record highs on Friday partly due to fears that the vote could end in violence and supply disruptions in Venezuela.

   Venezuelans will go to the polls Sunday to decide whether Chavez, a leftist former army officer, should end his presidency. He has predicted an easy victory, but the vote could be close.

   Elections for a new president would be held in 30 days if Chavez loses the recall.

   The oil-rich nation has been rattled by more than two years of political unrest since Chavez survived a brief coup in April 2002. Oil prices spiked during an opposition strike at the start of last year that temporarily cut off Venezuelan crude production and shipments.

   Chavez, elected in 1998, fired more than 18,000 employees at state oil firm PDVSA for taking part in the strike and replaced them with loyal workers as the government fought to recover production.

   Foes accuse Chavez of increasing authoritarian rule and failing to fulfill promises to combat poverty and corruption, but he says his social reforms have helped better distribute the country’s huge oil wealth.

((Reporting by Matthew Robinson, editing by Walter Bagley; writing Patrick Markey, Caracas newsroom, Reuters)

From today’s Reuters, statements by Minister of Energy and Mines Rafael Ramirez, not exactly the words expected from a true democrat.

   CARACAS, Venezuela, Aug 13 (Reuters) – Venezuelan oil workers would refuse to accept the defeat of President Hugo Chavez in Sunday’s recall referendum on his rule, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said Friday.

   Ramirez did not make clear what the oil workers would do if Chavez loses the vote. The South American country is the world’s No. 5 oil exporter and a top supplier to the U.S. market.

   “Nobody will accept it. If Venezuela enters into a period of instability, well, I don’t see prices having any limit,” Ramirez told reporters.

   “There is no way he will be defeated. There is no way the people would accept it, including our oil workers,” he said.

   Oil prices hovered near record highs on Friday partly due to fears that the vote could end in violence and supply disruptions in Venezuela.

   Venezuelans will go to the polls Sunday to decide whether Chavez, a leftist former army officer, should end his presidency. He has predicted an easy victory, but the vote could be close.

   Elections for a new president would be held in 30 days if Chavez loses the recall.

   The oil-rich nation has been rattled by more than two years of political unrest since Chavez survived a brief coup in April 2002. Oil prices spiked during an opposition strike at the start of last year that temporarily cut off Venezuelan crude production and shipments.

   Chavez, elected in 1998, fired more than 18,000 employees at state oil firm PDVSA for taking part in the strike and replaced them with loyal workers as the government fought to recover production.

   Foes accuse Chavez of increasing authoritarian rule and failing to fulfill promises to combat poverty and corruption, but he says his social reforms have helped better distribute the country’s huge oil wealth.

((Reporting by Matthew Robinson, editing by Walter Bagley; writing Patrick Markey, Caracas newsroom, Reuters)

From today’s Reuters, statements by Minister of Energy and Mines Rafael Ramirez, not exactly the words expected from a true democrat.

   CARACAS, Venezuela, Aug 13 (Reuters) – Venezuelan oil workers would refuse to accept the defeat of President Hugo Chavez in Sunday’s recall referendum on his rule, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said Friday.

   Ramirez did not make clear what the oil workers would do if Chavez loses the vote. The South American country is the world’s No. 5 oil exporter and a top supplier to the U.S. market.

   “Nobody will accept it. If Venezuela enters into a period of instability, well, I don’t see prices having any limit,” Ramirez told reporters.

   “There is no way he will be defeated. There is no way the people would accept it, including our oil workers,” he said.

   Oil prices hovered near record highs on Friday partly due to fears that the vote could end in violence and supply disruptions in Venezuela.

   Venezuelans will go to the polls Sunday to decide whether Chavez, a leftist former army officer, should end his presidency. He has predicted an easy victory, but the vote could be close.

   Elections for a new president would be held in 30 days if Chavez loses the recall.

   The oil-rich nation has been rattled by more than two years of political unrest since Chavez survived a brief coup in April 2002. Oil prices spiked during an opposition strike at the start of last year that temporarily cut off Venezuelan crude production and shipments.

   Chavez, elected in 1998, fired more than 18,000 employees at state oil firm PDVSA for taking part in the strike and replaced them with loyal workers as the government fought to recover production.

   Foes accuse Chavez of increasing authoritarian rule and failing to fulfill promises to combat poverty and corruption, but he says his social reforms have helped better distribute the country’s huge oil wealth.

((Reporting by Matthew Robinson, editing by Walter Bagley; writing Patrick Markey, Caracas newsroom, Reuters)