The Devil's Excrement

Some stories before I go:

-Chavez cancels his trip to see Uribe and Torrijos because of the lame excuse of the fire in Parque Central on October 27^th. The excuse is that’s some of the Ministers that had to accompany him had their offices in that building. I hope the Minister of Commerce and Production did, he is so dumb that he actually said that within a few years (a few is a few, not many) tourism will be as important to Venezuela as oil. I imagine he means the price of oil is going to less than a buck; it would be the only way that his prediction may become true.

-A friend sends me this press release telling me that Cogent the “fingerprint capture machine” company has been awarded a US$ 20 million follow on contract by the Venezuelan Electoral Board. I imagine a “follow on” contract mean a contract smaller than the previous one, since I don’t remember how much the previous contract was. So, I look around and find a reference in El Universal to a US$ 53 million contract with Cogent. But the problem is, according to Cogent’s financials, the company had revenues of only US$ 15.39 million in the first quarter of the year and US$ 17.02 million in the June quarter, for a total of US$ 32 million, so my guess is that on Nov. 1st. Cogent will have to report at least US$ 21 million in revenues or somebody is on the take, no?

So, here you have it, this is either a stock tip or a corruption tip, if Cogent does not report spectacularly on Nov. 1st. somebody made a lot of money of this no-bid contract awarded by the CNE. Of course, the number will show if Cogent’s “only” client is the CNE, so it should report even more.

Digging a little further into the issue I find that Cogent went public only in September and this will be the first time it ever reports earnings. So, this might be a one time shot of the company going public thanks to a one time revenue infusion thanks to the no-bid contract of the CNE. Even more interesting, if you look at Cogent’s website or the S-1 filed with the SEC when the IPO came out, the word Venezuela never appears. Interesting, no?

I guess anywhere else this will raise eyebrows, but this is the country where the most important company in the country PDVSA, assured everyone that it would file its financials in October and guess what? Monday will be November and we are still waiting for them, but who cares, a billion here or a billion there…

-The final suit/injunction against the regional elections was rejected by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, (surprise, surprise!). Once again, the Court avoids a ruling on the legality of the elections by not admitting it due to procedural reasons and not the elections themselves. These guys are good.

-Kerry asks Chavez to stop political persecutions, ending Chavez’ dream that a Bush loss would be to his advantage.

So, I send my laptop to be fixed tomorrow and go away for a few days, I will update once in a while via e-mail which does not allow me to do great formatting, basically because to do it I would have had to call CANTV and have my IP number be fixed and a lot of techie mumbo jumbo that would have probably never worked anyway. I am worried about violence on Sunday. There has never been much violence in Venezuelan elections before, but when the polls close this Sunday, many will try to count all the ballots and they will not be allowed to do so and tempers will flare and then…?

Note added: Actually, looking at the numbers of the Cogent contract from El Universal and the dates involved, the contract was awarded in June, threfore it could not have contributed to the company’s revenues in March. In the July quarter Cogent reported US$ 17 million in revenues. If we assume that ALL of this was from the CNE contract (unlikely), then Cogent should report on Monday at least US$ 36 million in revenues, unless something fishy is going on with this contract. That would be a blowout quarter for the company. Which will it be? Stay tuned…

Some stories before I go:

-Chavez cancels his trip to see Uribe and Torrijos because of the lame excuse of the fire in Parque Central on October 27^th. The excuse is that’s some of the Ministers that had to accompany him had their offices in that building. I hope the Minister of Commerce and Production did, he is so dumb that he actually said that within a few years (a few is a few, not many) tourism will be as important to Venezuela as oil. I imagine he means the price of oil is going to less than a buck; it would be the only way that his prediction may become true.

-A friend sends me this press release telling me that Cogent the “fingerprint capture machine” company has been awarded a US$ 20 million follow on contract by the Venezuelan Electoral Board. I imagine a “follow on” contract mean a contract smaller than the previous one, since I don’t remember how much the previous contract was. So, I look around and find a reference in El Universal to a US$ 53 million contract with Cogent. But the problem is, according to Cogent’s financials, the company had revenues of only US$ 15.39 million in the first quarter of the year and US$ 17.02 million in the June quarter, for a total of US$ 32 million, so my guess is that on Nov. 1st. Cogent will have to report at least US$ 21 million in revenues or somebody is on the take, no?

So, here you have it, this is either a stock tip or a corruption tip, if Cogent does not report spectacularly on Nov. 1st. somebody made a lot of money of this no-bid contract awarded by the CNE. Of course, the number will show if Cogent’s “only” client is the CNE, so it should report even more.

Digging a little further into the issue I find that Cogent went public only in September and this will be the first time it ever reports earnings. So, this might be a one time shot of the company going public thanks to a one time revenue infusion thanks to the no-bid contract of the CNE. Even more interesting, if you look at Cogent’s website or the S-1 filed with the SEC when the IPO came out, the word Venezuela never appears. Interesting, no?

I guess anywhere else this will raise eyebrows, but this is the country where the most important company in the country PDVSA, assured everyone that it would file its financials in October and guess what? Monday will be November and we are still waiting for them, but who cares, a billion here or a billion there…

-The final suit/injunction against the regional elections was rejected by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, (surprise, surprise!). Once again, the Court avoids a ruling on the legality of the elections by not admitting it due to procedural reasons and not the elections themselves. These guys are good.

-Kerry asks Chavez to stop political persecutions, ending Chavez’ dream that a Bush loss would be to his advantage.

So, I send my laptop to be fixed tomorrow and go away for a few days, I will update once in a while via e-mail which does not allow me to do great formatting, basically because to do it I would have had to call CANTV and have my IP number be fixed and a lot of techie mumbo jumbo that would have probably never worked anyway. I am worried about violence on Sunday. There has never been much violence in Venezuelan elections before, but when the polls close this Sunday, many will try to count all the ballots and they will not be allowed to do so and tempers will flare and then…?

Note added: Actually, looking at the numbers of the Cogent contract from El Universal and the dates involved, the contract was awarded in June, threfore it could not have contributed to the company’s revenues in March. In the July quarter Cogent reported US$ 17 million in revenues. If we assume that ALL of this was from the CNE contract (unlikely), then Cogent should report on Monday at least US$ 36 million in revenues, unless something fishy is going on with this contract. That would be a blowout quarter for the company. Which will it be? Stay tuned…

Some stories before I go:

-Chavez cancels his trip to see Uribe and Torrijos because of the lame excuse of the fire in Parque Central on October 27^th. The excuse is that’s some of the Ministers that had to accompany him had their offices in that building. I hope the Minister of Commerce and Production did, he is so dumb that he actually said that within a few years (a few is a few, not many) tourism will be as important to Venezuela as oil. I imagine he means the price of oil is going to less than a buck; it would be the only way that his prediction may become true.

-A friend sends me this press release telling me that Cogent the “fingerprint capture machine” company has been awarded a US$ 20 million follow on contract by the Venezuelan Electoral Board. I imagine a “follow on” contract mean a contract smaller than the previous one, since I don’t remember how much the previous contract was. So, I look around and find a reference in El Universal to a US$ 53 million contract with Cogent. But the problem is, according to Cogent’s financials, the company had revenues of only US$ 15.39 million in the first quarter of the year and US$ 17.02 million in the June quarter, for a total of US$ 32 million, so my guess is that on Nov. 1st. Cogent will have to report at least US$ 21 million in revenues or somebody is on the take, no?

So, here you have it, this is either a stock tip or a corruption tip, if Cogent does not report spectacularly on Nov. 1st. somebody made a lot of money of this no-bid contract awarded by the CNE. Of course, the number will show if Cogent’s “only” client is the CNE, so it should report even more.

Digging a little further into the issue I find that Cogent went public only in September and this will be the first time it ever reports earnings. So, this might be a one time shot of the company going public thanks to a one time revenue infusion thanks to the no-bid contract of the CNE. Even more interesting, if you look at Cogent’s website or the S-1 filed with the SEC when the IPO came out, the word Venezuela never appears. Interesting, no?

I guess anywhere else this will raise eyebrows, but this is the country where the most important company in the country PDVSA, assured everyone that it would file its financials in October and guess what? Monday will be November and we are still waiting for them, but who cares, a billion here or a billion there…

-The final suit/injunction against the regional elections was rejected by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, (surprise, surprise!). Once again, the Court avoids a ruling on the legality of the elections by not admitting it due to procedural reasons and not the elections themselves. These guys are good.

-Kerry asks Chavez to stop political persecutions, ending Chavez’ dream that a Bush loss would be to his advantage.

So, I send my laptop to be fixed tomorrow and go away for a few days, I will update once in a while via e-mail which does not allow me to do great formatting, basically because to do it I would have had to call CANTV and have my IP number be fixed and a lot of techie mumbo jumbo that would have probably never worked anyway. I am worried about violence on Sunday. There has never been much violence in Venezuelan elections before, but when the polls close this Sunday, many will try to count all the ballots and they will not be allowed to do so and tempers will flare and then…?

Note added: Actually, looking at the numbers of the Cogent contract from El Universal and the dates involved, the contract was awarded in June, threfore it could not have contributed to the company’s revenues in March. In the July quarter Cogent reported US$ 17 million in revenues. If we assume that ALL of this was from the CNE contract (unlikely), then Cogent should report on Monday at least US$ 36 million in revenues, unless something fishy is going on with this contract. That would be a blowout quarter for the company. Which will it be? Stay tuned…

Trick Number 1:

Yesterday Governor of Yaracuy Lapi claimed one of the great achievements of the negotiations with the CNE, besides having the results be printed first (yeah!, yeah!), was the fact that the position of Coordinator for each voting center had been eliminated. Well, this achievement lasted less than twenty four hours with these statements from CNE alternate Director Carlos Castillo:

“Despite the need to giving backing to a significant portion of Venezuelans, there exist conditions that the CNE in an incomprehensible manner refuses to modify, as an example, that of the coordinators. Apparently, they were eliminated, but what it did was to change their name, these coordinators are all of the political commissars for officialdom”

Adding:

”the CNE belongs to all Venezuelans, it can not continue being the executive arm of the policies of the official sector”

Trick Number 2:

The Venezuelan Supreme Court rejected the injunction against the Electoral Registry introduced by the Primero Justicia party. The reason was not illegality, but: “it should be an ordinary request and not an injunction’. Oh, I see when the law is right; you invoke procedural matters, because they know that the current registry is simply illegal. Oh Well! What else is new?

Trick Number Three:

The CNE generated the 118 random machine that will be audited in the upcoming regional elections, making us all wonder about how the number of audited machines tends to zero with time. 199 in the “hot” audit on August 15^th. 150 in the ”live” audit August 18^th. and now 118 in the “hot audit” on the 31^st. We are talking none in the Presidential election in 2006!

Trick Number Four:

CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez meekly “insisted” that President Chavez “violated” the regulations for electoral advertising last Sunday “insisted” he should follow them.

“It is not possible for the President to violate the regulations like he did on Sunday’

Come on Jorge! Relax! You violate the law weekly, what is an electoral regulation for the almighty Chavez? You never stopped him before, you will not stop him now! Stop the grandstanding, he is your idol!

Trick Number 1:

Yesterday Governor of Yaracuy Lapi claimed one of the great achievements of the negotiations with the CNE, besides having the results be printed first (yeah!, yeah!), was the fact that the position of Coordinator for each voting center had been eliminated. Well, this achievement lasted less than twenty four hours with these statements from CNE alternate Director Carlos Castillo:

“Despite the need to giving backing to a significant portion of Venezuelans, there exist conditions that the CNE in an incomprehensible manner refuses to modify, as an example, that of the coordinators. Apparently, they were eliminated, but what it did was to change their name, these coordinators are all of the political commissars for officialdom”

Adding:

”the CNE belongs to all Venezuelans, it can not continue being the executive arm of the policies of the official sector”

Trick Number 2:

The Venezuelan Supreme Court rejected the injunction against the Electoral Registry introduced by the Primero Justicia party. The reason was not illegality, but: “it should be an ordinary request and not an injunction’. Oh, I see when the law is right; you invoke procedural matters, because they know that the current registry is simply illegal. Oh Well! What else is new?

Trick Number Three:

The CNE generated the 118 random machine that will be audited in the upcoming regional elections, making us all wonder about how the number of audited machines tends to zero with time. 199 in the “hot” audit on August 15^th. 150 in the ”live” audit August 18^th. and now 118 in the “hot audit” on the 31^st. We are talking none in the Presidential election in 2006!

Trick Number Four:

CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez meekly “insisted” that President Chavez “violated” the regulations for electoral advertising last Sunday “insisted” he should follow them.

“It is not possible for the President to violate the regulations like he did on Sunday’

Come on Jorge! Relax! You violate the law weekly, what is an electoral regulation for the almighty Chavez? You never stopped him before, you will not stop him now! Stop the grandstanding, he is your idol!

Trick Number 1:

Yesterday Governor of Yaracuy Lapi claimed one of the great achievements of the negotiations with the CNE, besides having the results be printed first (yeah!, yeah!), was the fact that the position of Coordinator for each voting center had been eliminated. Well, this achievement lasted less than twenty four hours with these statements from CNE alternate Director Carlos Castillo:

“Despite the need to giving backing to a significant portion of Venezuelans, there exist conditions that the CNE in an incomprehensible manner refuses to modify, as an example, that of the coordinators. Apparently, they were eliminated, but what it did was to change their name, these coordinators are all of the political commissars for officialdom”

Adding:

”the CNE belongs to all Venezuelans, it can not continue being the executive arm of the policies of the official sector”

Trick Number 2:

The Venezuelan Supreme Court rejected the injunction against the Electoral Registry introduced by the Primero Justicia party. The reason was not illegality, but: “it should be an ordinary request and not an injunction’. Oh, I see when the law is right; you invoke procedural matters, because they know that the current registry is simply illegal. Oh Well! What else is new?

Trick Number Three:

The CNE generated the 118 random machine that will be audited in the upcoming regional elections, making us all wonder about how the number of audited machines tends to zero with time. 199 in the “hot” audit on August 15^th. 150 in the ”live” audit August 18^th. and now 118 in the “hot audit” on the 31^st. We are talking none in the Presidential election in 2006!

Trick Number Four:

CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez meekly “insisted” that President Chavez “violated” the regulations for electoral advertising last Sunday “insisted” he should follow them.

“It is not possible for the President to violate the regulations like he did on Sunday’

Come on Jorge! Relax! You violate the law weekly, what is an electoral regulation for the almighty Chavez? You never stopped him before, you will not stop him now! Stop the grandstanding, he is your idol!

The Cynical Electoral Board continues its magic act, this time telling the Governor of Yaracuy Lapi, that not to worry, that this time around the transmission will not take place until after the votes have been added. Of course, there is no mention of how this will be monitored or guaranteed, maybe in a month I will be showing again plots of data transmitted before the votes were added arguing that there was fraud and somebody will make a comment that this was not data but handshaking between machines. As somebody said (Yogi Berra?,Bush?) this is Déjà vu all over again!

But let’s see how our well meaning and fair authorities have been behaving in the last few weeks to see whether something may be up or not:

-The CNE has promised (Notice the difference, it has promised, not approved!) that one box will be audited at each center. Now, if you are trying to be transparent and fair, what is the difference between opening one or three boxes? The answer is simply none. So, why the reluctance to count all of the ballots? Think about it, all of those statistical arguments that worked so well in the recall vote will be irrelevant for hundreds of local races where “coincidentally” the audited box will favor the opposition by “only” a one or two percent difference over the other two or three boxes. But add it up, and tampering with two will be as effective as tampering with all of them.

It takes maybe fifteen to twenty minutes to add up all of the ballots in a box. This can be done in parallel by the witnesses and people who show up. Why object it? We have never heard any argument for this absurdity. This from the man that when it came time to test the signatures by the opposition actually said that perfectly valid statistical tests could not be trusted.

-It used to be in the “old days” right after the Supreme Court named the new Electoral Board, that there was supposed to be a two to two balance with “oil digger” Carrasquero the deciding vote if things got too partisan. In time, Carrasquero showed his true colors and it was a clear pro-Chavze majority of three to two. About a month ago, CNE Director Zamora resigned, which should have been no problem since he had an alternate named by the Supreme Court. Mysteriously, the alternate has never been invited to a Board meeting and has been given no official responsibilities, just when a big vote is coming up. Do I hear fair play?

-The Electoral Hall of the Supreme Court, now purified and in the hands of the revolution, “Loaizad” the injunction against the Electoral Registry by arguing that those asking for the injunction had not provided any proof of illegalities in the registry, but had simply provided lists of voters of their own without any addresses or any other data required to register.

Of course, lawyers for the CNE diligently argued against the granting of the injunction using words like “preclusive”, “prima facie” and “illusiority” , some of which are not even in any legal dictionary, least of all in that of the Spanish language but sound good when trying to make a case. Curiously, to this blogger turned amateur lawyer, the CNE did not provide the equivalent list of voters with addresses or other data that would have Perry Masoned the case out of the Electoral Hall in a flash. But what do I know.

-But no other mystery is larger than the functionality of the Cynical Electoral Board than the fact that there have been few and precious meetings of its Board in the last three weeks. Meeting after meeting is cancelled, despite the fact that they could approve the agenda in second by a three to one vote. Nothing is discussed. In the best style of Saddam Hussein’s Electoral Board, everything is decided in informal meeting in the halls of the Electoral Board, where CNE Director Rodriguez tells Carrasquero and Battaglini what the messages in the t-motions (RIMM’s in the US) from the Presidential Palace are telling them to do.

Thus, despite charge to the contrary, the CNE is not run like the totalitarian Government but by the totalitarian Government itself. But maybe I am just caught in the “illusiority” of the moment.

-But some believe there is still hope as more evidence was handed in to the Constitutional Hall of the Supreme Court asking to postpone the regional elections. That same Hall who got rid of the Justice that declared the signatures valid. The same one that said the Electoral Hall was not in charge of Electoral decisions. The same one that delivered the illustrious nose picking Carrasquero to preside over our electoral processes. The same one that failed to defend the rights of those that signed the petition to recall Hugo Chavez. The same one that has failed to look into the fraud on August 15^th. The President of which promised Linda Loaiza a “quick” solution to her case. The same one that declared the session of the National Assembly outside Congress and without a quorum valid.

Oh yeah, there is hope, I can really see it coming this time on the side of justice…it is indeed electoral Déjà vu all over again!