The Devil's Excrement

The Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez called on the opposition to be serious about the border discussions that are taking place with Colombia. This is response to Primero Justicia leader Julio Borges who said that a Colombian newspaper had quoted a Colombian negotiator as saying that Venezuela had recognized that country’s rights to the Gulf of Venezuela.

Borges immediately replied to Rodriguez saying that his reply lacked clarity as it did not address what the Colombian publication said and it was incredible that Venezuelans had to find out about it via a foreign publication.

My response would have been:

Who should be serious here? The Minister of Foreign relations was President of PDVSA for the last two and a half years where he:

-Has been telling us for over a year that the country is producing 600,000 barrels more than either OPEC or AEI say.

-Has been promising since June the financial statements of PDVSA will be ready next month and they are not ready yet.

-Authorized the repurchase of PDVSA’s US$ 2.5 billion dollars an outrageous price simply to protect the rear ends of the members of the Board of PDVSA (including his own) who would have been in violation of US law, in particular the recently enacted Sarbanes Oxley Law.

-Promised all of his collaborators at PDVSA that he would not take political revenge on them.

-Confiscated the funds from the voluntary pension plans of 20,000 PDVSA workers.

Yes Mr. Rodriguez, let’s be serious! Why don’t you start, your track record ain’t very good. Did you know Government should be subject to a higher standard?

Hugo Chavez loves a confrontation. He can’t stand it if there is nothing to fight about, someone to pick a fight with. I think it is all planned. It is a political style made to be always in the center of the storm, creating conflicts where there are none, inventing issues that have no basis, aiming to look like the champion of the people.  He finds enemies where he has friends, differences where there are none, windmills to fight, where there is not even a wisp of wind.

Case in point is Chavez’ loud call tonight for the President of the Venezuelan Central Bank to resign. Let’s see the issues, if any:

-What’s the fight about? The Government wants the Central Bank to pay foreign exchange gains higher than the Central Bank wants.

-Who is the President of the Central Bank? Diego Luis Castellanos

-Who named him? Hugo Chavez, three years ago.

-Who recommended him? Jorge Giordani, Chavez’ Planning Minister who also sits on the Board o the Central Bank. Castellanos was a complete unknown when he was named.

-How long more does he have in the position? Less than one month. Castellanos’ term ends in mid-January. Given that Venezuela is starting to shut down already and will not reopen until January 15th., then whether Castellanos resoigns today or his term ends is largely irrelevant.

So, It’s just another fight against the windmills of his mind. Another dispensable ally thrown overboard. Another footnote in his path to absolute power.

Citycouncilam Carlos Herrera says he was detained on his way to meet with the Attroney General. He says his house is being searched looking for documents or more likely to plant them. He was detained when he was quite close to the Attorney General’s Office. Herrera, a pro-Chavez politician, called much maligned “opposition” TV station Globovison to describe his plight.

The investigative police on the other hand, denied that he has been detained, saying that the cops were simply carrying out an order to take him to the investigative police to be interviewed.

I have heard similar arguments before. Do you remember Silvino? He was just being watched. Will Herrera become another Silvino?

After one month not even looking for Herrera, they catch him right before he talks to the Attorney General…He obviously knows too much. Take your pick: Orwell or Goebbels!

Citycouncilam Carlos Herrera says he was detained on his way to meet with the Attroney General. He says his house is being searched looking for documents or more likely to plant them. He was detained when he was quite close to the Attorney General’s Office. Herrera, a pro-Chavez politician, called much maligned “opposition” TV station Globovison to describe his plight.

The investigative police on the other hand, denied that he has been detained, saying that the cops were simply carrying out an order to take him to the investigative police to be interviewed.

I have heard similar arguments before. Do you remember Silvino? He was just being watched. Will Herrera become another Silvino?

After one month not even looking for Herrera, they catch him right before he talks to the Attorney General…He obviously knows too much. Take your pick: Orwell or Goebbels!

Citycouncilam Carlos Herrera says he was detained on his way to meet with the Attroney General. He says his house is being searched looking for documents or more likely to plant them. He was detained when he was quite close to the Attorney General’s Office. Herrera, a pro-Chavez politician, called much maligned “opposition” TV station Globovison to describe his plight.

The investigative police on the other hand, denied that he has been detained, saying that the cops were simply carrying out an order to take him to the investigative police to be interviewed.

I have heard similar arguments before. Do you remember Silvino? He was just being watched. Will Herrera become another Silvino?

After one month not even looking for Herrera, they catch him right before he talks to the Attorney General…He obviously knows too much. Take your pick: Orwell or Goebbels!

Maybe the new elected leader of the student Union at Universidad Central de Venezuela (UCV) Stalin Gonzalez should just do like in old times and skip a grade to fill in as leader of the opposition. At least based on what he says, he has a much clearer picture of what is going on that both Government and opposition figures:

On the role they will play given the new muzzle law and the upcoming Higher Education Bill:

“As students we are concerned because protests are being criminalized and the regime is consolidating itself even more. The university has to have an opinion and give it a fight. The Assembly has to open itself to a dialogue, because these laws are going to change the way we live.”

On Chavez and political confrontation:

“It was too political a fight and social aspects were left aside, which is what is important. We don’t have to get rid of Chavez because he is ugly, but because he is a failure. Here we had a power struggle and society was forgotten and that is why the rich are richer and the poor are poorer. They increased fares and nobody said anything and every day the standard of living of Venezuelans deteriorates. That is why the fight has to focus in that area.

Hear! Hear!

Maybe the new elected leader of the student Union at Universidad Central de Venezuela (UCV) Stalin Gonzalez should just do like in old times and skip a grade to fill in as leader of the opposition. At least based on what he says, he has a much clearer picture of what is going on that both Government and opposition figures:

On the role they will play given the new muzzle law and the upcoming Higher Education Bill:

“As students we are concerned because protests are being criminalized and the regime is consolidating itself even more. The university has to have an opinion and give it a fight. The Assembly has to open itself to a dialogue, because these laws are going to change the way we live.”

On Chavez and political confrontation:

“It was too political a fight and social aspects were left aside, which is what is important. We don’t have to get rid of Chavez because he is ugly, but because he is a failure. Here we had a power struggle and society was forgotten and that is why the rich are richer and the poor are poorer. They increased fares and nobody said anything and every day the standard of living of Venezuelans deteriorates. That is why the fight has to focus in that area.

Hear! Hear!

If there is one analyst/politician that I tend to agree with is Teodoro Petkoff of Tal Cual. He seems to have a degree of common sense and fairly good understanding of economic issues, that most Venezuelan politicians lack. I guess being an economist helps (Even though he strongly disagrees with my belief that a dollarization of the Venezuelan economy would be positive). But I did not like parts of his Editorial today on what is going on in Cojedes which I wrote about last night. Essentially Petkoff does not give much importance to Governor Yanez’ decree on “intervention” of these farms:

“The exact reach of the intervention decree issued by the Government of the State of Cojedes is not clear, but it is neither an expropriation (which supposes indemnification) nor, much less, confiscation of land (which does not contemplate it)

As far as can be understood, the idea would be that a commission, within a term of sixty days would verify, with the owners of those 25 great farms, that by their extension, in principle, could fall under the definition of large states (latifundios), all involving who owns the land, as well as what it relates to its limits and the degree of utilization of the territory”

Well, I simply disagree, too many times I have seen Chavez try something, step back from it, only to come back later in full force and win, catching the opposition off guard in their naïve belief that Chavez or Chavismo would play fair. I am in the camp that thinks this is simply a trial balloon, one of many that Chavez has flown since he became President. At the end of the sixty days, the commission will expropriate or confiscate and much like the signatures for the recall vote or the cheating in the recall vote, it will be too late to do anything about it. The opposition will scream bloddy murder and nothing will happen. Maybe something will, a lwayer will go to the Supreme Court to reverse the decree, the Court will either not accept the case or rule in a contorted way and that will be that.

What I do agree with is with other parts of the Editorial when Petkoff talks about the real implications that land reform has in modern Venezuela:

“The problem does not have the dimensions that the Chavista mythology ascribes to it, especially for foreign consumption, where they make believe that we have an agrarian situation similar to 1958, Mexico in 1910 or today’s in Brazil. The truth is that the agrarian reform (even if it was incomplete, it gave away during its fifteen years three million hectares, access to credit and even housing to 200,000 agricultural families) and the capitalist development of farmlands, adding to it the violent urban development of the country (86% of the population is urban) the agrarian problem is no longer that of when Betancourt argued for reform to prevent what he used to call the “zamorazo”. But this does not impede that there still are some 500 properties (according to the 2001 census) that can be qualified as large farm estates. And if the peasant pressure does not have the characteristics of that in the middle of the last century, the elimination of large farm estates and giving land to the peasants or small agricultural producers that do not have land, will serve to complete the modernization of the agrarian structure…

But, in general, the anti-large states position still has a connotation of social justice which can not be minimized

The truth is that up to now, in this six years of Chavista Government, there has been in agrarian matters, much less work accomplished  than that done by Betancourt, Leoni and Caldera in their respective presidencies.”

And that my friends is simply a fact of this fake revolution.

If there is one analyst/politician that I tend to agree with is Teodoro Petkoff of Tal Cual. He seems to have a degree of common sense and fairly good understanding of economic issues, that most Venezuelan politicians lack. I guess being an economist helps (Even though he strongly disagrees with my belief that a dollarization of the Venezuelan economy would be positive). But I did not like parts of his Editorial today on what is going on in Cojedes which I wrote about last night. Essentially Petkoff does not give much importance to Governor Yanez’ decree on “intervention” of these farms:

“The exact reach of the intervention decree issued by the Government of the State of Cojedes is not clear, but it is neither an expropriation (which supposes indemnification) nor, much less, confiscation of land (which does not contemplate it)

As far as can be understood, the idea would be that a commission, within a term of sixty days would verify, with the owners of those 25 great farms, that by their extension, in principle, could fall under the definition of large states (latifundios), all involving who owns the land, as well as what it relates to its limits and the degree of utilization of the territory”

Well, I simply disagree, too many times I have seen Chavez try something, step back from it, only to come back later in full force and win, catching the opposition off guard in their naïve belief that Chavez or Chavismo would play fair. I am in the camp that thinks this is simply a trial balloon, one of many that Chavez has flown since he became President. At the end of the sixty days, the commission will expropriate or confiscate and much like the signatures for the recall vote or the cheating in the recall vote, it will be too late to do anything about it. The opposition will scream bloddy murder and nothing will happen. Maybe something will, a lwayer will go to the Supreme Court to reverse the decree, the Court will either not accept the case or rule in a contorted way and that will be that.

What I do agree with is with other parts of the Editorial when Petkoff talks about the real implications that land reform has in modern Venezuela:

“The problem does not have the dimensions that the Chavista mythology ascribes to it, especially for foreign consumption, where they make believe that we have an agrarian situation similar to 1958, Mexico in 1910 or today’s in Brazil. The truth is that the agrarian reform (even if it was incomplete, it gave away during its fifteen years three million hectares, access to credit and even housing to 200,000 agricultural families) and the capitalist development of farmlands, adding to it the violent urban development of the country (86% of the population is urban) the agrarian problem is no longer that of when Betancourt argued for reform to prevent what he used to call the “zamorazo”. But this does not impede that there still are some 500 properties (according to the 2001 census) that can be qualified as large farm estates. And if the peasant pressure does not have the characteristics of that in the middle of the last century, the elimination of large farm estates and giving land to the peasants or small agricultural producers that do not have land, will serve to complete the modernization of the agrarian structure…

But, in general, the anti-large states position still has a connotation of social justice which can not be minimized

The truth is that up to now, in this six years of Chavista Government, there has been in agrarian matters, much less work accomplished  than that done by Betancourt, Leoni and Caldera in their respective presidencies.”

And that my friends is simply a fact of this fake revolution.

You have to love the naiveté of the people at the Ministry of Science and Technology, few of which have ever been involved with either. According to today’s Inside Telecom column in El Universal by Victor Suarez, the Ministry has various ambitious projects in the drawing board:

-The Bolivarian PC: The Ministry is drawing up a “national Hardware Plan” which includes a project to assemble in Venezuela 20,000 of the 150,000 PC’s that the government plans to acquire in 2005. Since there are no local components for it, it will all be imported and the computer will be called the “Computador Popular Bolivariano” or Compubol. The plan is to eventually assemble up to a million units.

According to the report, representatives from the Ministry have talked to Intel and AMD, but the motherboards are too expensive. Thus, they are now in contact with Indian and Chinese manufacturers who obviously use the same microprocessors.

I have to wonder what the competitive advantage these people find in Venezuela is. It is not salaries as Venezuelan salaries are low, but now low enough and the laws are too protective of workers. It is not technology, as Venezuela has zero, as in zip, technology to contribute to such a project, we don’t even make video tubes.

What will be gained from this? Experience in manufacturing? This was already tried by the private sector who found that it moves too fast to be competitive and there are few competitive advantages. Can Venezuela produce a PC cheaper than then $200 PC Wal-Mart sells? I doubt it. But even if it could, I would let the private sector do it anyway.

-Informatics goals for 2010: The Ministry has also established some goals for Venezuela’s informatics infrastructure by 2010. I will not argue the details of the goals, they are all highly desirable. My question is they realistic?

Just one of them shows how unrealistic these goals are:

-To have (by 2010) a highly developed internet commerce system

Well, the company I work for owns one of the most successful e-tailers in Venezuela. It ahs been opened for five years. It will be closing on Christmas day. Why? Many reasons but among them, lack of purchasing power by Venezuelans, lack of penetration of the Internet, lack of penetration of the banking system, lack of penetration of credit and debit cards and no economies of scale. Once again, if the private sector can’t, can the Government? Doubt it.