On Thursday I reported that Venezuela’s economy had grown by 17.3% in 2004 as reported by the Venezuelan Central Bank. At the time, I just read the press release by the bank and quoted the full year numbers. If the Central Bank says those are the numbers, I have to believe it unless I have evidence to the contrary. I was glad the economy grew so strongly because I have said many times here, the only way to improve the standard of living of the poor is by increasing dramatically GDP per capita over a sustained period of time. One year does not a period make, but it’s a start!
First thing Friday morning I read the breakdown for the fourth quarter and something seemed very odd to me. You see, for the year the non-oil sector grew by 17.8%, while the oil sector grew by 8.7%. The strange thing is that for the fourth quarter the oil economy shrank by 5.9%, when compared to the same quarter the previous year. Now, that certainly seemed strange, given that 2003 was not a very stellar year for the Venezuelan oil sector as a whole or for world oil prices.
No sooner had I noted this, that in an article in El Universal the President of PDVSA and Minister of Energy and Mines Rafael Ramirez, wonders about exactly the same thing. Ramirez states that he does not know what the Central Bank attributes this drop to. Ramirez added that the oil sector has continued to grow in all of its operations. Thus, we have the two institutions contradicting each other. In thus case, I would side with Ramirez, it seems very difficult for me to believe that the oil sector in 4Q04 dropped with respect to 4Q03 and something is “funny” about the Central Bank’s numbers. Error? Fudging? Politics? I have no idea, but I would certainly like to know.
The Devil's Excrement 
Leave a comment