Archive for January, 2007

Mostly Species

January 21, 2007

It’s amazing how every time I think flowering is stopping, something comes up with buds in no time. Evenings have been cool for Caracas (15-17C at the low point every evening which will be good for flowering in a month or two, plants like that very much.

On the top left is a Sobralia Leucoxantha from the Venezuelan Andes. It may look like a Cattleya, but it is anything but one. First of all it is a dirt orchid, the flower comes out and lasts barely one day and other flowers come out later of the top of the same branch,  from the same bud, seuqnetially behind the previous one. On the right is a Cattleya Nobilior from Brazil.

I love this Cirrhopetalum Coralifferum from Asia. It is one inch in diameter and look on the right picture the close up of the detail it has.

On the left Comparettia Macroplectrum from the Andes from Venezuela to peru. Top right, a Phalenopsis which I have had so long I don’t even have a tag for it or remember it’s name.

Two pictures from my very generous Cattleya Gaskelliana Mimi x Aida. These are from two separate plants. This is a large plant with roots outside the pot and some 20 flowers and/or buds total

This hybrid has the name of a flower, but I can’t remember it right now, it’s Lc. and then some common flower name.

A picture is worth 10,000 words #22: The price of Venezuela’s oil basket

January 21, 2007

Below is the evolution of the average price of a barrel of the Venezuelan oil basket for the last 52 weeks. A good rule of thumb is that one dollar up or down represents US$ 1 billion more or less in revenues for the country.

Source: Bloomberg

You can now find all of the graphs I have posted since the election in the Pictures section

The Hidden Enabling Bill

January 20, 2007

On Friday the Miami Herald had this article (Thanks M.) that suggested there was more behind the Enabling Bill that the Government was proposing. Given the good reputation of the reporter that wrote the article, I called a few reporters and within an hour I had a copy of what he described. I was planning to write about it on Friday, but then Petkoff in Tal Cual wrote the Editorial below, which is really a list of what the Attorney General’s proposal says and I decided to just translate that, however, Friday was a rough and tiring day and it is only now that I have the energy to complete it.

One needs to ask why the Government and the National Assembly continue to have a hidden agenda on these matters. As I suggested earlier, what has been said is quite limited and not really important to the true objectives of the Government. In true Dictatorial fashion, Chavez did not say what he was planning to do if he won and continues to hide it from the people in order to protect his popularity. This text is supposed to be included at the last minute next Tuesday, right before the approval of the Bill. Some democracy!

The Hidden Enabling Bill by Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual

The draft of the Enabling Law that the Executive sent to the National Assembly is only an appetizer. The true content of what Chavez will be enabled for is in this project elaborated by the Attorney General of the Republic that still has a chance of being incorporated in the second discussion that will take place on Tuesday at the National Assembly.

Here we present some extracts of this document in which the ten statements that already appear in the exhibit of motives that the Parliament approved yesterday in its first discussion are extended, point-by-point and law-by-law.

We can say, then, that this is the Enabling Bill that hides behind the Enabling Bill.

On the economic and social scope:

—To dictate norms that preserve the social function of property, in their diverse forms and classes, developing the concept of social and collective property, according its limitations and restrictions within the framework of the constitutional values and principles and applying (sic) the new emerging realities on matters economic functions, organizational structures for production and new mechanisms for barter.

—To dictate norms on the matter of expropriations that simplify administrative and jurisdictional procedures, guaranteeing speed, transparency, effectiveness and efficiency in the subtraction of property, as well as the protection of the rights of those being expropriated as well as the general interest.

—To dictate norms of regulatory character on the matter of foreign investment, directed to the industrial and endogenous development, and to the transformation national technology regulating the resolution of controversies with respect to the sovereignty and to the impossibility of declining national jurisdiction. ·

—To dictate norms that regulate on matters related to strategic minerals, establishing parameters for their exploration, extraction, use and commercialization.

In the financial and taxation areas:

—To dictate norms that make possible the creation of binational or multinational funds for the development of programs of joint financing between the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela with two or more States.

—To dictate norms that allow the Fund for National Development (Fonden) to grant guarantees, to issue securities titles and conducting financial operations that imply indebtedness with the prior authorization of the President of the Republic.

—To Dictate norms in the area of the public finances, oriented to the construction of the new socioeconomic regime consecrated in the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, orienting the execution of excess income originating from the Law of Economic and Special Allocations derived from Mines and Hydrocarbons as well as the Law of the Intergovernmental Fund for decentralization, among other sources of financing for popular participation, with the intention of strengthening it and the equitable distribution of the resources to the communities, for the execution of its programs of endogenous development.

—To dictate norms that regulate the management system of national assets, as part of the financial management system of the State.

—To dictate norms that regulate the activities of financial intermediation developed by banks, directed to rationalize their profits benefits, orienting it as a productive and non-speculative system. Also, to promote the investment for the endogenous development of the country, democratizing credit and the free access financing, generating conditions of equality for its request, processing and granting. Also, to establish conditions that allow and stimulate the participation of new forms of association for the development of banking and insurance activities.

—To Dictate norms that establish a system of regulation, control and supervision of the tangible assets of the Fund for Guarantees and Deposits (Fogade), where these can be identified in all their extension, establishing transparent mechanisms for their sale and guaranteeing their keep, custody, maintenance, protecting the general interest of the depositors of the national banking system.

—To dictate norms that allow to re-dimensioning of the figure of the Central Bank of Venezuela, with the aim of fitting it within the socioeconomic regime consecrated in the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

—To dictate norms that help the diversification, optimization and harmonization of the Venezuelan tax system, with the object of increasing the effectiveness of tax collection, to stop the existence of unproductive assets, to modernize tax control and to improve the activities of the Tax Administration.

—To dictate norms that establish a fiscal policy of general and special contributions, proportional to the income of people and legal entities and in accordance with budgetary necessities.

In the area territorial distribution:

—To dictate norms that define the geographic spaces that define (sic) the National Bolivarian Project for Development.

—To Dictate norms that allow to regulate the processes of promotion and creation of establishments of communities in the national territory, in accordance with the outlines established in the territorial planning of the country which stimulates the integral human development based on values and social forms, oriented to allow the formation of a new citizen and to construct a new society, in the terms established in the constitutional text.

In the area of security and defense:

—To dictate norms for the organization and operation of the National System of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence.

—To dictate norms for the implementation of operational zones of the integral defense of the nation.

—To dictate norms that allow the mobilization of the National Armed Forces in the assumptions that are specifically anticipated, without the need to declare a state of emergency.

In the area of popular participation and the social voluntary military service:

—To Dictate norms to establish the mechanisms of participation, social control and socio technical inspection of organized communities in the application of the legal, economic and social ordering of the State, providing with the legal instruments for the permanent means for the population to participate, evaluates and control public management in all their manifestations and the accomplishment of the essential and nonessential assignments, executed or not by public or private entities.

—To dictate norms directed to the democratizati
on of Popular Power, creating an organizational structure that allows the legitimate exercise of this Power, whose representation must have a direct and immediate identity with the community that it represents. In such sense, these norms must grant attributions to the Communal Councils, in the matter of planning, administration, management and control of the resources and in the execution of the inherent projects to endogenous development.

(Finally, Petkoff also notes that the Attorney General proposes changing Article 2 of the Enabling Bill so that NOBODY outside Government personnel participates in the elaboration of the Decrees/Laws issued under the Enabling Bill. How about that!)

Wisdom from the autocrat/dictator

January 20, 2007

Chavez says: “We will proceed with massive nationalizations if it is necessary…I don’t think (we will nationalize other companies). It will depend. Processes are dynamic. If those private companies, national or multinational do not understand the process and want to sabotage it, we will nationalize them, no matter what they are”

My take: This is the version of the muzzle law applied to the media, but in this case to the whole Venezuelan private sector, either you become submissive and do what the Government says or else we nationalize you. Clearly, when companies continue making a profit in the future, the private sector will be mostly nationalized unless you are or get an Argentinian or Brazilian partner.

Chavez says: “CANTV used to wiretap me, they were owned by north americans and thus they used them”

My take: Of course, he does not have to prove anything, he is Hugo Chavez. A few months ago he was threatening CANTV with nationalizing it if it did not pay what the Court said it had to pay pensioned workers (The Court had not even ruled how much!). Since the Court ruled and CANTV paid, he needs other excuses to justify the nationalizations.

Chavez says: “O Globo…(the Brazilian media conglomerate) is the enemy of the people”

My take: That’s Chavez concept of democracy: either you support him or you are a coupster, oligarch, enemy of the people. O Globo should be glad they are not in Venezuela, their concession would have expired last year if not earlier.

Chavez says: “Democratic Senator Harry Reid got it all wrong” in reference to the Democratic Majority leader comment that Chavez represents a threat to the US.

My take: So far it has been Bush that is the enemy, come 2008, if it’s Hillary, she will become the she-devil, if Obama, he will be a traitor to his people. Just wait!

Chavez says: “I would have to be overthrown before renewing RCTV’s concession”

Oh yeah! It’s not political, it’s not revenge, it’s the law, Chavez’ law, the only one in town.

-Chavez says (Zeta, 19-01-2007, page 9): “A President should not listen to economists”

My take: It shows, it shows, it will be his downfall.

There you have it, all in an autocrat/dictator’s day

A sad day for Venezuelan democracy or what was left of it

January 18, 2007

When Hugo Chavez ran for President in 1998, one of his main proposals was that Venezuela required a “participatory” democracy instead of a representative democracy, in which decisions would somehow percolate down so that the Executive and legislative branches would have the input of the citizens and their opinion would be heard on all matters. This concept was in fact incorporated into the 2000 Bolivarian Constitution in many places and at the Quebec Summit in April 2001, Chavez refused to sign the final declaration of the Summit, because he did not believe in representative democracy, but only in a participatory democracy and the term was not included in the declaration.

After the events of the last two weeks, it should be very clear even to those with a limited understanding of what democracy is about, that Chavez does not believe in either of them. As the Venezuelan National Assembly approved today a first draft of the Enabling Law that will give Chavez absolute power to legislate for the next eighteen months, those “representatives” of the people not only relinquished their own power to legislate in favor of the autocrat, but they also precluded the exercise of that participatory democracy that Hugo Chavez claimed to believe in and which was clearly included in the 2000 Bolivarian Constitution.

When the Assembly approves the Bill next week, Chavez would have basically been appointed as a dictator of laws, where he will be able to propose, include and approve, any idea he might have. In this manner the Deputies will apparently go on a paid vacation for the next eighteen months, while the citizens wonder whatever happened to Article 211 of the Bolivarian Constitution:

“Artículo 211. La Asamblea Nacional o las Comisiones Permanentes, durante el procedimiento de discusión y aprobación de los proyectos de leyes, consultarán a los otros órganos del Estado, a los ciudadanos y ciudadanas y a la sociedad organizada para oír su opinión sobre los mismos…”

which translates as:

“Article 211. The National Assembly or the permanent commissions, during the process of discussion and approval of the Bills, will consult other organizations of the State, the citizens and organized society t hear their opinion about them…”

There will be no such procedure with the Enabling Law which will be granted to Chavez without fail or discussion, next week, which simply proves the President’s customary grandstanding on matters of democracy and participation. In fact, only last night he was claiming his new Socialist Party will be an example of democracy with all internal leaders democratically elected at all levels, a promise that is hard to believe, given that his own MVR party has yet to elect a single leader by the party members, despite the fact that the Constitution clearly states that should be the case.

Meanwhile, some of the same Deputies that were giving up their representative powers today, justified the Enabling Law with the stupid argument that most Presidents in Venezuela have been given Enabling Powers so that they can impose their views. Somehow they forget that Chavez is the first President in what now should be called Venezuela’s recent pseudo-Democratic history that was eligible for reelection, that he has been in power for all of eight years, certainly “imposing” his views and that he already was given an Enabling Law in 2000.

But what is worse is the type of Enabling law that he will be granted. First of all, rather than being for a short and limited period of time, it will be for 18 months, a lifetime compared to the previous such Bills. Moreover, Enabling Bills granted on the past to incoming Presidents have been quite specific. Even the 2000 Bill was extreme in its details, as there was some semblance of democracy and not a docile National Assembly willing to comply with every wish and whim of the autocrat. You can find that Bill here and examine the exquisite level of detail of the mandate given Hugo Chavez at the time.

In contrast, the current Enabling Bill is simply grotesque, with no guidelines or mandate, almost all encompassing and allowing the President to completely change the social, economic and political structure and fiber of our country in any way he may desire over the next eighteen months. To wit, the Bill, as proposed, will “allow the President to legislate in ample and unlimited manner on”:

-The transformation of the institutions of the State.
-Popular participation
-Public Functions
-Social and economic spheres
-Citizen safety and judicial security
-Science and Technology
-The National Health System
-Security and National Defense
-Infrastructure, transportation housing and services
-Telecommunications and information technology
-The penitentiary system
-Regionalization
-Territorial organization
-Food supply security

As you can see, President Chavez has been given powers to legislate on essentially anything he wishes for in the next eighteen months, without any specifics and without control. This is certainly not in the spirit of any known Enabling Bill ever approved in history, anywhere, except those to given to Dictators at the peaks of their rule.

The approval of this Bill is simply undemocratic. It goes against the spirit and the letter of our laws and the Constitution and it creates a very gray area of what you can legislate about and/or what Constitutional reform is. After all, if not one Deputy raised his or her hand to suggest or discuss a change in this Bill, do you really believe they will oppose anything that comes out of the autocrat? Or which or whose voice will be raised against any of the hundreds of articles that will be part of the dozens of Bills to be approved by decree by Hugo Chavez. The Supereme Court? You will not hear from them either.

As Quico points out
,
the worse part is that there was no need for any of this. The National
Assembly is 100% controlled by Chavez, so he could have submitted the
same Bills, have a mock discussion of them and they would have been
rubber stamped it. But that is not Chavez’ style. He is a true autocrat
for whom democracy is simply a nuisance to be used at his convenience
if he can benefit from it.
He does not even want to have to discuss the details of each Bill. Some may remember how the Constituent Assembly rejected renaming the country “The Bolivarian Republic”, only to be told by the autocrat upon his return from one of his self-promotion trips to put it back in. Which they promptly did.

Thus, when next week the National Assembly empowers Chavez to do whatever he wants, they will be setting the country in a dangerous and uncertain path, led by an autocrat who for the last long eight years has shown is incapable of managing this country or choosing the people to help him do so. A man, who has yet to come up with a definition for his “XXIst. Century Socialism” and who sadly believes that he knows it all and can by himself design a new socioeconomic system that mostly mimics failed ones.

At the end of these eighteen months, Venezuela’s social end economic system will hardly be recognized and we all will be worse off because of this.

A sad day indeed.

A picture is worth 10,000 words #21: Another view of the gasoline subsidy

January 18, 2007

And obviously I had to go and steal this plot for my collection from Daniel’s blog. This shows the budget as a percentage of the amount of money the Government spends on the gasoline subsidy which largely benefits the well off who own cars (also generously subsidized at the official exchange rate by the Government). Note in particular that the total amount spent in healthcare is barely 23% of the subsidy. This is clearly the irrational revolution or the revolution without rationality.

The ugly horn of fascism

January 18, 2007

The ugly horn of fascism by Simon Bocanegra in Tal Cual

Two days ago a small group of people attacked the headquarters of RCTV. Stones, bottles, aggressive shouts and insulting words on the external walls of the TV station were the heroic weapons of that heroic day. Inside, the workers lived moments of fear and anguish. Was that an announcement of new and larger attacks? This small journalist does not know if the guys went there on their own or were sent. Bit that is irrelevant even if the Government denied its responsibility; it cannot avoid its intellectual authorship. That attack and a direct consequence of the brutal and trouble making language that I the Supreme uses each time he refers to the topic of Canal 2 (RCTV). In the fascist like atmosphere of “order, our commander, that we will obey”, the “command” that stoned Radio Caracas TV was following explicit orders. Do the direct aggressors and their political leaders think about the men and women cornered at the headquarters of the TV station, fearing worse things may happen? Socialism owes itself to high and noble ideals. Are those them? Bullying people, insulting them, stoning them and using violence against them? No. Those are the anti-values of fascism.

An Interesting quote

January 17, 2007

An interesting quote:

“I do not believe that it was a mistake to privatize CANTV. On the contrary, it was the right thing to do, because the State in 1991 got rid of an operation that was not efficient and-definitely-the quality of service that we perceive today from the private CANTV is far better than that offered by that state owned CANTV”

Who said this?

a) The President of CANTV
b) The President of the Caracas Stock Exchange
c) Some loser leader of the opposition
d) A Wall Street Analyst
e) Someone that just does not “get” the revolution

The Answer?

This was said in 2001 by the then Head of the Telecom Regulator CONATEL Jesse Chacon, who coincidentally was being sworn in as Minister of Telecommunications on the day that the autocrat announced that he would nationalize CANTV. Chacon will also assume the position of Head of CONATEL, which is being absorbed by the Ministry in another dissapearance of an “independent” institution. CXhacon has not changed his mind, you just don’t argue with the all-knowing autocrat/dictator..

Hugo and Mahmoud

January 17, 2007

From today’s Wall Street Journal. While many may think the affinity between Hugo and Ahmadinejad is being left wing, it is actually fundamentalism and their autocratic bent and one day this alliance will come to haunt us Venezuelans, when it gets out if hand as I am sure it will, much like Chavez’ fake democracy being derailed to simply support his power and his bid for international leadership. Chavez no longer even talks to the Deputies elected to the National Assembly and for the next 18 months he will legislate at will whatever whim he wants without asking or consulting anyone. So much for participative democracy!

Hugo and Mahmoud in today’s Wall Street Journal Page A18

We’ve known for some time that Hugo Chávez is a menace to the economic well-being of his own people. But the question that seems increasingly urgent is whether he’s becoming a threat to U.S. security interests — both in the Western Hemisphere and beyond.

Specifically, we’d like to know what Senator Chris Dodd and Congressman Bill Delahunt make of Mr. Chávez’s weekend summit with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian President stopped by Caracas on Saturday as part of a four-day engagement with Latin America’s new leftist governments. On Sunday, the Iranian communed with Nicaragua’s new boss, Daniel Ortega, and then on Monday he hit the inauguration of Ecuador’s new pro-Chávez President Rafael Correa.
[H C]

The Caracas visit was Mr. Ahmadinejad’s second in four months. “This is just a prelude of what we will do,” declared Mr. Chávez, in a televised speech announcing the creation of a joint $2 billion fund to finance development and other projects. “This large and strategic fund, brother, is going to be converted into a mechanism of liberation,” he added, saying their goal is to build “a network of alliances.”

In Managua, the Iranian also signed a “broad cooperation accord” with Mr. Ortega. Mr. Chávez openly funded the Sandinista’s Presidential campaign last year, and he earlier supported Evo Morales in Bolivia. Venezuelan soldiers have reported that they are under orders to give Colombian rebels safe haven, and Mr. Chávez signed contracts last year to buy Russian MiGs and open a Kalishnakov factory at home.

Meanwhile, the Venezuelan is using his recent election victory to consolidate his grip on the economy. A week ago, he announced he would nationalize the country’s electricity and telephone companies; he already controls the oil business. His goal here is to redistribute income but especially to shrink the private economy in order to reduce the space in which any political opposition can operate.

The Caracas Stock Exchange Index fell 16% last week, but that didn’t phase Seńor Chávez. He’s moving to withdraw the license of a prominent independent television network, and he has asked Congress to grant him temporary executive power to rule by decree. “The world should know: Our revolution is not turning back,” he said. “This is the path our boat is on: socialism. Country, socialism, or death.”

The world should have known this a long time ago but too many people chose to ignore it. Mr. Chávez took office in 1999 on a promise to end corruption and injustice. By 2000, human rights groups warned of a deterioration in constitutional protections, and Mr. Chávez began importing Cuban security agents along with Cuban doctors and teachers to spread propaganda.

Each time Mr. Chávez has faced resistance, he has tightened the screws. Price and capital controls and property seizures became state policy. Employees of the state-owned oil company and its contractors were fired if they opposed the government; political opponents were jailed.

All the while, Mr. Chávez has had American enablers who excused his growing repression, or blamed it on a reaction to U.S. policy. Foremost among them has been Mr. Dodd, who has defended Mr. Chávez as “democratically elected” despite his clear trend toward authoritarianism. In 2004, the circumstances surrounding a recall referendum were so anti-democratic that the European Union refused to act as an observer. Jimmy Carter nonetheless blessed the outcome amid heavy irregularities, and the U.S. State Department endorsed the process. Other politicians, such as Mr. Delahunt, embraced and flattered Mr. Chávez for his PR stunt of offering cut-rate oil to poor Americans.

Perhaps it’s time these Americans paid attention to the kind of “socialism” and “revolution” that their support is helping Mr. Chávez to build in Venezuela.

A picture is worth 10,000 words #20: A long term view of private investment

January 17, 2007

Earlier I showed a plot of net foreign investment in US$ in recent years. The following plot shows a long term view of private investment per inhabitant in constant 1984 Bolivars since 1920 (This means that the Bolivars are adjusted for inflation taking as reference 1984). Notice the dramatic drop since the peak in the 70’s (When coincidentally the low in poverty occurred), Notice we are down to the 1940’s. Even if you include Government investment, the total in recent years barely rises to double what it is in the most recent data in this graph. I am trying to get the plot for total investment. Government investment has never been more than Bs. 3,000 per inhabitant, with peaks at that level in 1978, 1982 and 1992.

From “Politica Economica” in Acuerdo Social.