Archive for December, 2007

The top ten justifications given by Venzuelans on how they spent their $500 cash advance

December 13, 2007

As you know, CADIVI, the foreign exchange control office,  will now ask people to justify how they spent their cash advance or withdrawals while traveling. The law currently places no restrictions whatsoever on what you may spend the cash on or not and does not specify you have to get receipts for this expenditures, Below, the Devil’s Excrement, as a public service, takes a bold prediction for the top ten excuses found in the CADIVI files of how Venezuelans spent their $500 after one year. Feel free to add your own in the comments.

(Amounts may vary according to the age and sex of the recipient of the $500 in cash)

10) 25 cents when I bought a newspaper at a machine on the street

9) Bought a $5 pen from a blind man at the airport

8) Gave $ 10 to a homeless person on the street

7) Paid the valet $5 at a Restaurant

6) Gave a $10 tip at the airport

5) Bought some hot dogs at the ball game

4) Bought $50 in lottery tickets

3) Gave 20 bucks at church

2) Spent 100 bucks on a prostitute

1) Gambled away 500 dollars at an Indian casino

Maletagate scandal hits the fan again as US charges four as acting illegaly as foreign agents on behalf of the Venezuelan Government

December 12, 2007

The US Department of Justice announced
today
that three Venezuelans and one Uruguayan were arrested yesterday on
charges of acting and conspiring to act as agents of the Venezuelan Government
without notifying the US Attorney General as required by law. A fifth person is
being sought in connection with the charges. They face up to ten years in
prison and up to US$ 250,000 in fines. The Venezuelans are Antonio Jose Canchica Gomez (at large), Moises Maionica , Franklin Duran and Carlos Kauffman. The Uruguayan is Rodolfo Edgardo Wanseele Paciello.
The charges relate the now infamous maletagate and Guido
Antonini; the case of the Venezuelan caught trying to go into Argentina with
US$ 800,000 in cash in a suitcase. According to the charges the money was to be
used for the campaign of an unnamed candidate, likely to be Mrs. Kirchner that
was sworn in yesterday.

The charges allege that the men participated in a conspiracy
acting as agents of the Venezuelan Government to get Antonini to hide as well
as not reveal the origin of the US$ 800,000 in cash. It also says that the defendants named
various high-ranking officials, including the Vice President Jorge Rodriguez
and members of both the intelligence police and the Ministry of Justice.
According to the details of the complaint filed in Florida Court against the five men:

—On August 17, 2007, Duran, Kauffman and Maionica entered the US. Six days later they met with Antonini where Duran advised Antonini that he had spoken to a high ranking member of the intelligence police (DISIP) and told him both the Venezuelan and Argentinean Government would pursue him if he did not say the US$ 800,000 belonged to him.At that meeting Kauffmann advised Antonini that his future course of action might put his life at risk. Maionica advised him that PDVSA would pay all his expenses and financial penalties relating to the case.

—On Aug 27, 2007, Mainioca, Duran and another individual met again with Antonini. At this meeting Duran warned Antonini that revealing the objective of the money may result in the loss of the election by the candidate and both Venezuela and Argentina wanted the “mess to be solved so that the truth would not come out”. At this meeting, Duran identified the person who brough on board the plane the US$ 800,000 as the assistant to the CEO of PDVSA (Rafael Ramirez)

—On Aug 29, 2007 Duran spoke with Antonini on the phone and asked for a power of attorney and told hyim the matter was being handled at the top of the Venezuelan Government.

—On Sept. 16, 2007 Mainioca spoke with Antonini and told him that his involvement in the case began with a three way call between the office of the Vice President of Venezuela, the DISP and Mainioca, at which he was assigned this mission.

—On Oct. 4th. 2007, Mainioca told Antonini that an emissary was being sent to him and he should personally tell the emissary what Antonini required to participate in the conspiracy. Later he gave him the code word for identification.

—On Oct. 28th.2007, Rodolfo Wanseele drove Antonio Jose Canchica to a meeting with Antonini at which the latter acknowledged the code word and told Antonini that he would be helped. Antonini was told he was the last link in the chain.

—On Nov. 6 2007, Mainioca advised Antonini that a man from DISIP named Arvelo would call him. On the same day Arvelo called Antonini and told him Antonini’s concerns were being addressed.

—On December 11, 2007 Mainioca, Duran and another individual met with Antonini and held discussions on how to create a false paper trail to conceal the true source of the US$ 800,000 in cash.

Clearly, Antonini was cooperating with the FBI throughout all of this.

Very interesting and damaging stuff indicating the levels of corruption in Venezuela, this goes all the way to the top as expected.

For Chavismo, not much seemed to happen with the No victory on Dec. 2nd.

December 12, 2007

It is as if December 2nd. and the defeat of the
Constitutional reform was somehow an accident, which as the days go by
becomes more and more irrelevant to the autocrat and his cronies.
Almost every act and every statement by Government officials seems to
ignore the serious damage to the process by that defeat, even if it was
not necessarily a glorious victory for the opposition. What’s
interesting is that this may actually be working in the opposition’s
favor for once, as the people want the Government to solve their
problems and a large fraction was actually punishing Chavez by
rejecting the reform, which to many of them represents a vaporous
concept for their daily lives.

While I have
found extreme Chavistas to be obviously disappointed by their defeat,
there is a sense of relief among those that never supported Chávez and
those who were at some point sympathetic to his project in the past. It is as if a new future had opened up in which the Government
would be forced to talk to the other side, to Govern for all. But no
such luck, the divisiveness continues, as witnessed by the extreme
statement by the Minister of the Interior and Justice who said today that “There can be no national reconciliation without the reform”.

That’s
it. There are two Venezuela’s and it is Chavismo’s will never to accept
the other, whether via democratic means or not. Even worse, he sees no
possibility of a dialogue. No possibility of even talking to each
other. Thus, the inescapable conclusion seems to be that if democracy
will not determine how the Government will govern, if dialogue is
impossible, if policies will only be implemented for “one side”, what
are we suppose to do then? Collective Hara Kiri? Divide the country in two? Civil War?

But the people seem to be calling for something different. And not giving it to them may be the worst path for Chavismo.
And
despite the fact that the main spark for the rejection to the reform
was the proposal to have Chavez be reelected indefinitely, Government
spokesmen have had no qualms or shame in saying and admitting that it was
only that part of the reform that mattered. The Mayor of Liberator
District said it clearly today:
“ Within the Government we are looking for the legal and constitutional
mechanisms to allow the reelection of President Chavez in 2012”. So much for accepting the democratic will of the people!!!

That’s
it. That is all that mattered. The rest as we all knew was simply
fluff. The No did not win; the Si suffered a minor setback. For now…

And if the Government does not want to recognize the democratic victory of the No on Dec. 2nd. it is actually continuing to implement a full court press against democracy and the people. By controlling the flow of foreign currency, it has managed to shutdown newspaper Correo del Caroni in Guayana, one of the oldest in the country. What a simple way to censure, no?
Moreover, in
order to block one of the most important tools of the student movement
in its mobilizations, the telecom regulator Conatel issued this week new
regulations for SMS messages
, making telcos “responsible” for the content
of SMS messages, forbidding “texts that promote crime or contain
messages which contain unsolicited information or advertising”. Just
think, one pro-Chavez student receiving the “wrong” message can stop
the whole student movement on its tracks if these regulations are
implemented. (On Dec. 2nd., the student movement sent a massive sms calling for students to go and vote at 2 PM)

Add
to this physical attacks on Cardinal Urosa, the order to capture former Governor Enrique Mendoza who
quietly and with little visibility engineered the victory of the No in
Miranda state, Chavez suggesting he will block foreign currency to
Colombian imports if he feels like it, the spat with Guyana, ignoring
the request for an Amnesty Bill this Christmas and even suggesting that the calls for reconciliation are part of a destabilization plan and you get the picture.The No did not really win, or it just does not matter in an autocracy.

Not much seems to have happened to Chavismo on Dec. 2nd.

But
the truth is it did. It was not a resounding victory by the opposition,
but it was a victory. Part of what was one day the pro-Chavez vote
abstained or voted against Chavismo. Add to that the opposition voters
who did not go and vote because they did not believe their vote will be
counted and the numbers may be even larger next time. Calling the
victory s h i t does not help either and neither does maintaining the
level of confrontation within and outside Venezuela.

And
the problems are not going away, shortages, inflation and crime are
still there. The change in time has turned out to be a pain in the neck
for workers getting home in the dark at 6 PM and seeing no benefit from
it. And on January 1st, there will be the conversion to the
Bolivar Fuerte, which will create only confusion in the population who
has been sold the idea that this conversion will somehow be a panacea
in which they will have the same amount of money in their pockets, but
everything will be cheaper. Sure, just wait!

But there will be no such luck and unless the autocrat admits that he suffered a significant defeat on Dec. 2nd.
and there is some form of introspection as to its causes, the future of
the Chavista process may be truly in question. If the first quarter of 2008
is spent in submitting a new constitutional reform as the Bolivar Fuerte proves to be
a failure in holding back inflation, the people will turn even more against the Government, making
the 2008 regional elections and a possible constitutional reform
referendum certain victories for the disorganized Venezuelan
opposition.

El Idiota (Anonimo)

December 11, 2007

Idiota no es cualquiera Sr. Director: Se necesita vocación y entrenamiento. Sea cual sea el empaque.Porque hay varias clases de idiotas: los invisibles y los que encandilan. Los inoloros y los que apestan. Los insípidos y los que empalagan. Hay idiotas con toga e idiotas con botas. Hay idiotas de reciente cosecha y los hay añejados. Hay idiotas por conveniencia y hay idiotas por convicción. Todo idiota, sin embargo, tiene su equipamiento básico: una serie de rasgos peculiares que lo definen y lo separan del resto de la especie.

El idiota típico, por ejemplo, no distingue colores ni matices. Ve el mundo en blanco y negro. Alimenta su discurso con dicotomías.Pobres y ricos. Patriotas y lacayos del imperio. Buenos y malos. Capitalismo y socialismo. Bush y el otro.

El idiota practica el autoengaño. Cree que maneja a los demás… y los demás lo usan. Lo ponen, verbigracia, a dar insultos a un gringo en tierra ajena, mientras el anfitrión voltea su estrabismo para desentenderse. O algún analfabeto presidente, embutido en un poncho, le organiza un acto de adulación para vaciarle la bolsa mientras habla.

El idiota no sabe lo que dice. Usa la lengua pero no el cerebro. Le rinde culto a la consigna. Llama a formar ‘uno, dos, tres Vietnam’, sin recordar el sufrimiento que un solo Vietnam le causó al mundo. O grita a todo gañote ‘Patria, socialismo o muerte’, como opciones alternativas de futuro. Como una amenaza enarbolada a los cuatro vientos, que deja sin espacio a quienes creen en la humanidad, la libertad y la vida El idiota no sabe sacar cuentas. Se mira en el espejo y grita ‘¡Somos dos!’.

El idiota, en efecto, asocia a su país con tres países pobres y pequeños… y cree que el imperio está temblando. Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia y Nicaragua se embarcaron en esa aventurilla que es ALBA. Unidos suman unos 50 millones de habitantes. La mitad de los que tiene México. La cuarta parte de los de Brasil. La sexta parte de la población del imperio. Bush no se ha dado ni cuenta de que el ALBA respira. El idiota no sabe que los demás lo en. Persigue al hombre de su vida (sino existiera Bush lo inventaría) por toda América Latina, y luego dice que aquél lo anda buscando. Monta un show de bostezos y de insultos en un pequeño estadio de un barrio bonaerense y luego va a dormir en el Sheraton
hotel. Prédica y conducta por distintos rumbos.

El idiota no tiene identidad política. En Argentina se proclamó hijo de Bolívar, de San Martín, de Tupac Amaru, del Ché Guevara y de Perón. Cuando visita Cuba es hijo de Martí. En Nicaragua es hijo de Sandino. En Perú, de Velasco. En la China, de Mao. Esa mezcla de padres tan disímiles tal vez sea responsable del desorden ideológico que el pobre idiota carga entre verruga y ceja.

El idiota prefiere lo parejo. Le tiene miedo a la diversidad. Por eso quiere un partido único donde todos complazcan sus caprichos. Y un pensamiento único que evite la comezón de la disidencia. Y un líder único y eterno, cuyo dedo decida el rumbo el país. El idiota no asume responsabilidades. La culpa es siempre de otro. Del neoliberalismo. Del imperialismo. De la oligarquía. De los medios de comunicación. De sus ministros, incluso. Es un experto en el arte de lavarse las manos.

El idiota se cree grande porque hay otros idiotas que lo aplauden. El idiota se cree tigre de acero. El idiota no sabe que el acero también se derrite.

The Idiot (Anonymous)

December 11, 2007

Somebody sent me this, telling me it was published in a newspaper in Argentina. It was too good not to translate and reproduce in Spanish too, even if it contains the forbidden B.. word a few times. If anyone knows the source, would love to give credit where credit is definitely due.

The Idiot (Anonymous)

Not anyone
is an idiot Sir. You need vocation and training. No matter what the packaging.
Because there are different classes of idiots: The invisible ones and the
flashy ones. Those that are odorless and those that stink. The tasteless ones
and the ones too rich to eat. There are idiots with cap and gown and idiots
with boots. There are idiots of recent harvest and aged idiots. There are
idiots by conviction and idiots of convenience.

Any idiot,
however has his basic equipment: a series of peculiar features, which define
them and separate them from the rest of the species. The typical idiot, for
example, does not distinguish colors or shades. He sees the world in black and
white. He fills his speeches with dichotomies. Poor and rich. Patriots and
lackeys of the empire. Good and bad. Capitalism and socialism. Bush and the
other one. The idiot practices self-denial. He thinks he manipulates others and
others use him. They put him up, for example, to insult the gringo in a far
away land, while the host turns his crossed eyes to wash his hands. Or an
illiterate President, stuffed in his poncho, organizes for him an act of
adulation to empty his purse while he speaks.

The idiot
does not know what he is saying. He uses his tongue, but not his brain. He pays
homage to slogans. He calls to create one, two, three Vietnams, without remembering the suffering that
one Vietnam
gave the world. Or he shouts with all his lungs: “Fatherland, Socialism or
Death” as alternative options for the future. Like a threat waved at the four
winds, that leaves no room for those that believe in humanity, freedom and
life.


The idiot
does not know arithmetic. He looks at himself in the mirror and shouts: There
are two of us! The idiot, in fact, associates his country with three small and
poor countries and believes the Empire is trembling. Venezuelan, Cuba, Bolivia
and Nicaragua
have embarked in that little adventure called ALBA. Together they add up to 50
million inhabitants. Half of what Mexico has. A fourth of Brazil’s the
sixth part of the population f the Empire. Bush has not even noticed that ALBA
breathes.

The idiot
does not know that others can see. He chases the man of his dreams (if Bush did
not exist, he would invent him) throughout Latin America
and later says it is the other one that is looking for him. He stages a show in
a Buenos Aires
barrio and then goes to sleep at the Sheraton.

The idiot does not have political identity. In Argentina he proclaimed he
was Bolivar‘s, San Martin’s and Tupac Amaru’s, Che Guevara’s and Peron’s son.
In Peru
Velasco’s. In Nicaragua,
Sandino’s son. In China Mao’s. That mixture of such dissimilar parents is
perhaps responsible for the ideological disorder that the poor idiot carries
between wart and forehead.

The idiot
prefers uniform things. He is afraid of diversity. That is why he wants a
unique party where everyone pleases his every whim. And a unique thinking that
avoids the itching of dissidence. And a unique and eternal leader, whose finger
will decided the course of the country. The idiot assumes no responsibilities.
It is always someone else’s fault. Of neoliberalism. Of the oligarchy. Of the
media. Even of his Ministers. He is an expert on washing his hands.


The idiot
thinks he is great because others applaud him. The idiot things he is a steel
tiger. The idiot does not know that steel also melts.

As Chavez travels abroad, a great decision by his administration to allow the price of milk to be determined by market forces

December 10, 2007

Only yesterday the Minister of Feeding Rafael Oropeza was blaming the milk shortages
on the private sector as the Government’s Mercal supermarkets were not
capable of satisfying the gigantic demand for milk as lines formed all
day and many had to be turned away without the now precious liquid. The
Minister criticized that milk producers were not investing to produce
more milk and even worse, were using a large fraction of the milk to
make cheese. Why? Easy, because milk prices are regulated, but not all
cheeses are, thus milk producers choose to make what gives them the
higher return.

A couple of years ago, the
reaction by the Chavez administration may have been to simply regulate
all cheese prices in that perverse thinking that has dominated Chavismo
for the last nine years.

But today, in a
decision that I praise and that completely and absolutely surprises me,
the Chavez administration recognize the importance of market forces and
rather than keep tinkering with the system, it announced the absolute and total deregulation of the UHT milk in Venezuela.

I
can’t even begin to describe how significant this decision is. For the
first time in years, The Chavez administration in the face of a problem
that I am absolutely sure had a strong impact on the referendum vote,
rather than inventing more controls or untried solutions went for what
economic logic suggests: let the price float and allow the people to
have as much milk as they want.

And you can be
sure than in a few weeks this will be the case, as producers and
importers will now be able to allow supply and demand to establish
prices and not be under the total regulation of the Government.

I not only congratulate the Government on the decision, but I also hope that it is the first of many like it.

What
is most intriguing after the attacks by Minister Oropeza on the private
sector during the last week, what changed in the government to decide
on such a different strategy all of a sudden? Was Chavez in the know?
Who recommended it? Is this part of a new strategy given the strong
impact on the votes in the referendum the shortages had? After all,
like an analyst suggested this weekend, the best strategy for Chavez
now would be for him to start governing, but if Chavez began to govern,
he will not be Chavez…

Chavez was certainly
taking some distance from the decision, as he is away at the swearing
in ceremony’s for Argentina’s new President, where is once again
devoting his time to international politics. He announced a summit for
Petrocaribe next week in Havana and just when he was being praised for purposely not touching upon the subject of the negotiations with the Colombian guerrillas, he comes out and says that his pact with guerilla leader Marulanad was almost ready, a little exaggeration given that Marulanda never even provided Chávez with evidence that any of the captives were still alive.

So,
while Chavez continues to enjoy the limelight provided by the
international stage, albeit surprising, a decision is made by his
administration to solve a problem that affects real people and we
certainly hope that it will be the first of many.

As exchange controls create distortions, the Government imposes more controls in Venezuela

December 9, 2007

Every single
exchange control regime in Venezuela’s history has ended badly. By
having these controls in place, Governments delay making tough
decisions and things get so stretched that by the time realistic
policies are implemented, the price the population has to pay for the
mismanagement is huge.
 
The current exchange
control is no different. We have seen many people become millionaires
off it. Like those that had bankrupt companies that miraculously
recovered thanks to the Government recognizing their foreign debt at
the official exchange rate Or those that brought empty containers for
which foreign currency was approved but only air was actually imported.
And, of course, there are those that act as intermediaries and make
huge commissions every time CADIVI, the foreign exchange control
office, approves something for someone. Many indeed have made large
fortunes out of it since 2003.
 
There are also,
of course, the shortages. As the Government requires more and more
paperwork and authorizations, imports don’t flow well. This is part of
the current bottleneck with many imports. But there are other problems.
As the Government owes banks more and more (currently about a billion
US$), banks have begun asking companies to guarantee letters of credit,
this makes things flow even slower, then more shortages follow. The
latest is that the CADIVI website is unable to accommodate all users.
Thus, companies have people 24 hours a day trying to print requests and
approvals to get their stuff. Things are so bad, that I talked to
people at two companies last week that told me they have not even
processed one order for next year, which starts in three weeks, because
they have yet to complete everything for 2007. Shortages could be
really bad the first two months of next year. 
 
Then,
there are those that once the parallel rate became much larger than the
official rate, made a business of it, as I described in the Oligarca Burguesito post
a while back. Between those illegal requests and the legal ones for
Internet and travel dollars outflows ballooned 300% this year, as
people tried to take advantage of the huge difference between the
official exchange rate (Bs. 2,150 per US$) and the parallel exchange
rate (Bs. 5,650 per US$ last Friday).
 
Jut for
background, every Venezuelan is entitled yearly to US$ 3,000 to order
stuff through the Internet and US$ 5,000 when you travel, as well as a
US$ 500 cash advance before you travel. To get the travel part, you
have to provide the first time an airplane ticket.
 
But
rather than make the exchange control more flexible, the Government in
its infinite belief of the capabilities of its bureaucracy, its simply
adding layers upon layers of rules and people that are now reaching the
limits of the absurd.
 
The latest one is that 31,000 people (given US$ 263 million if they all requested all the money) now have to supply
a barrage of forms and receipts for their purchases. Even more
remarkably, some of these rules are new, so that many (if not most)
will not have some of it. But even worse, who is going to review the
information provided? We are talking about 31,000 files, which would be
almost impossible to review in detail.
 
Some of what CADIVI is asking for now:
 
For your Internet purchases:
 
–ID and letter explaining all your expenditures.
–Copy of your credit card statement
–Receipt from the company that brought your stuff to Venezuela
–Receipt from the seller
–Invoice with your name on it, what you purchased detailed, price and where it was delivered.
 
First
of all, all of these rules are new, but they are asking 31,000 people
to provide them. What if your name is not on the Invoice? Or all of the
details? What if you sent it to a friend’s house in the US and picked
it up? What if it was a gift to someone somewhere else? What if you
used it to pay an international health insurance premium like many do?
Or to subscribe to an international satellite subscription system?
 
There
are so many gray areas that this is pretty absurd. But let’s now look
at what they ask from those that spent the money while traveling:
 
 
–ID and letter explaining all your expenditures.
–Letter explaining how the money was spent
–Credit Card statement
–Details of how you spent the US$500 in cash advanced as well as the US$ 500 in cash you may withdraw
 
The last rule in particular, was never established before. Thus, nobody is likely to have receipts for how it spent the cash.
 
But, what’s the point anyway? What if I went somewhere in Europe to celebrate my high school graduation 30th
anniversary and I paid for the whole meal and it cost me US$ 4,800
courtesy of the Venezuelan Government at the lower rate of exchange? In
fact, what if I went to the best Restaurant in Lyon, France and spent
$4,000 in a bottle of wine? Nothing in the rules established any
restrictions, so what is the penalty if I supply (or invent) bizarre
reasons for my spending of the cash. Somebody with a sense of humor
could make up a lot of them, for example: I used the cash for the
purchase of US$100 in lottery tickets, I gave $50 to the church, spent
US$ 100 paying a round to everyone in a bar and $250 to go to and from
the airport in a helicopter. Would any of these be wrong? Illegal? So,
what’s is the point?
 
The point really is that
the controls are simply not working, but the Government is making it
more complex, creating more bureaucracy, making people lose more time
providing the information, but little of the waste will be stopped by
it.
 
Those that do it illegally will find new
ways of getting around the controls, while those doing it legally will
save every bit of paper and provide the information to CADIVI that the
exchange control office will never have the time and/or capability to
check or the legal means to establish penalties.
 
It’s
called running in place. Believing in the almighty power of an
extremely inefficient and incapable Government. But, as we say here, we
have seen this movie before and one day it will all blow up in the
bureaucrat’s faces and in our own. And apparently, until the next time
another Government decides to implement controls. So much for change
and the Vth. Republic and all that stuff.
 
Even animals with the most basic intelligence learn from experience…

Some nice orchids, yes I still have them!

December 9, 2007

Bewteen politics, work and travel, my orchids have been abandoned for a while. Actually, lots of intersting stuff flowered, but I did not catch it in time. In particular, my Sophronitis coccinea aurea flowered again as the plant grows vigorously. Below some nice flowers

Cattleya Jenmanii definietly likes my greenhouse. On the left Cattleya Jenmanii Orquimiel with seven blooms in a single bunch and it is only the second times in flowers! On the left another Cattleya Jenmanii Coerulea, smaller flower but delicate.

On the left, Dendrobium Judy Fukuyama a hybrid. On the right Oncidium Onustum from Peru, a remarkable yellow color. I almost killed this plant untol I transferred it to a fern root slab, where it has begun thriving

It will never be the same hour for us…or something like that

December 9, 2007

Just think,
unless you live in Venezuela, starting tomorrow, we will never have the
same time, as we are switching back half an hour starting tonight so
that we can enjoy all of these revolutionary advantages(Decree 5653 of November 26th. 2007):
 
“Better
take advantage of solar light in our daily engagement in the areas of
health, organic (?), functional, intellectual, productive and
ecological and so that we are involved less in risk situations and
accidents associated with darkness, as well as having more time with
solar light for family, social and recreational coexistence…at the same
time, this will translate in saving of electric energy, reduction of
combustibles associated with the generation of that energy, as well as
the reduction in the emission of contaminant gases in the atmosphere…”
 
Of
course, that will all be given back every afternoon after we drive home
in the dark, get home in the dark, etc. Of course, the effects will be
different in Maracaibo and Margarita, so that in the end it may make
little difference. But hey! This is a revolution and we want to be
different (even if we now can’t be socialist) and worry about
irrelevant problems, because important problems are really hard to
solve and require people with expertise and management capabilities. So
crime, poverty, food production and the like will be taken care of in
the third decade of the revolution.
 
See you in half an hour…or something like that.

What now for the Venezuelan opposition?

December 8, 2007

The Venezuelan
opposition should do its own thing and try to ignore Chavez, as he will
do whatever he decides to do and it has been clear that he will not
limit himself in anyway, just because someone in the opposition is
against it.

The opposition has many problems, one of them the fact that it
has no obvious leader to counteract Chavez. Some think this is not a
problem, but in fact last Sunday’s vote showed that Chavez can be
beaten and one of the reasons he has never been beaten directly is that
no opposition figure has been able to grab the attention of the so
called Ni-Ni’s like the reform did on Sunday. (Ni-Ni’s are those that
are not the hardcore supporters for Chavez and who mostly abstained or
voted No on Sunday.)

I believe there is an opportunity right now for those that
want to lead the opposition in the future, it is very simple: Don’t go
on vacation!
Yes, you can bet most opposition leaders are getting ready
to take off for Christmas vacation, but not Chavez. Much like last
year, he will stay and work hard through the New Year, trying to figure
out what he will do next.

In fact, General Baduel has already mentioned this in one of
his press conferences. After all, he understands it from within. He was
Minister of Defense last year when after Rosales’ defeat, all of the
opposition leaders disappeared until mid January, days after Chávez had
already made some dramatic announcements, such as nationalizing the
electric companies and the telephone company, the Enabling Bill and the
proposed Constitutional reform. You can be sure this year will be no
different.

At least General Baduel understands this and says he plans to
spend the holiday season going around the country promoting a
Constituent Assembly. Baduel clearly made a very calculated decision to
split from the revolution and attempt to become the leader of Chavismo
without Chavez. The opposition runs the risk that he will back into
being their leader, out of sheer attrition by what people call the
traditional opposition, which has little of traditional, as by now it
includes everyone that opposes the autocrat, including dozens of groups
from extreme left to right, as well as dozens of others that backed Chavez at
one time or another.

Chavez is likely to continue pushing Constitutional Reform.
Deputy Carlos Escarra, a constitutional lawyer has already spelled it
out clearly, Chavez will go the route of a Constitutional reform
promoted by the “people”. This is at this time the safest route for
Chavez. Another proposed reform may be defeated, but will not imply the
end of Chavez’s Presidency. By contrast Baduel’s proposal of a
Constitutional Assembly could end up like in 1999, forcing Chavez to
run for President again, a huge risk despite his still high popularity
at a time when economic problems are increasing. That is why Baduel
proposes the reform and Chavismo has so far clearly stayed away from
that idea.

While the Constitution bars the presentation a proposed
reform more than once, sufficient changes can be made to some of the
proposals made and rejected Sunday to be able to say that the new proposal
is quite different and does not
represent a revision, which is what the Constitution bans from being
presented twice.

To understand that, think about Chavez’ main objective with the
proposal rejected last Sunday: His indefinite reelection. A new
proposal could simply say that no President could be elected for more
than three terms in a row, allowing Chavez to run one more time in
2012, be President until 2020 and use that Constitutional period to
propose a new reform that will allow his indefinite reelection, if
conditions allow for it. Clearly such a proposal could not be legally
blocked because it is a revision of the old one. it is not indefinite reelection anymore, and it could be
accompanied by some other proposals using different names.

Baduel’s position in favor of a Constituent Assembly is
somewhat inconsistent, as he continues to defend the 1999 Constitution
but sees a Constituent Assembly as a way of balancing the National
Assembly and even getting rid of Chavez if economic conditions
deteriorated sufficiently before a final vote came to pass on its
proposal. This would take close to a year total, more so if the
opposition had a significant representation in the Assembly, which can
not be ruled out given the results of Sunday’s referendum and the
attempts by the Government to create a new discriminatory list by
finding out which members of Chavez’ new party PSUV abstained from
voting. This combined with Chavez lack of grace in accepting defeat may
create in the end a bigger backlash that he may imagine.

But is not clear what the opposition plans to do, unless you
find yourself in Baduel’s camp, as he is clearly part of the opposition
now, and while I applauded the role he played in helping the No win on
Sunday, he does not represent the future I want for my country.

Who does? Really nobody so far, since so little is being said of
substance in terms of alternative programs for our beleaguered country.
Most opposition groups are saying little different than Chavez is, as
they feel people want populism, which while correct, does little to
improve the level of debate in Venezuela. Thus, at the time, I may have
to be content to have a leader whose economic an political ideas
disagree with mine, as long as he has a track record, however short, of
respect for human rights, democracy and the rule of law.

For now, that would be a giant leap in improving conditions in Venezuela.