Archive for November 19th, 2008

Chavez continues his aggresive charade to motivate voters, but what will he do if he loses?

November 19, 2008

Have not posted for a few days, went to Trinidad for the weekend for family reasons. Interesting country, they seem to be doing better with their oil than we are, at least they are being intelligent in how they exploit it.

You leave for two days and really not much happens. There is not much that I can add to the elections. Chavez was his usual self, insulting everyone and calling for Manuel Rosales to be jailed next week when he no longer has immunity from prosecution for the crimes that Chavismo claims he has committed. Because if Venezuela is divided into two sides, this also applies to corruption. The good Chavista corrupt guys are just immune to any possibility of prosecution, while anyone who is an enemy, oligarch and the like, has to be guilty even before tried.

Things are so bizarre that even the Vice-President had to suck up to Chavez and say Manuel Rosales would be jailed as soon as he has no immunity.

As if this were not enough, Chavez who has violated electoral laws day after day (Who is running Chavez or 22 candidates for Governor?) threatens to shut down any media that does not follow the rules on election day. And then ignoring the fact that he has been President for ten years, he complains that it has been four years since Danilo Anderson’s assasination and the justice system ahs done nothing. Wow! Of course, he had a General Prosecutor manipualting the case and accusing the opposition, but not investigating the case.

But Chavez is wrong, the Guevara brothers were wringly accused and are in jail but it does not seem to matter. Two people were killed in the two days after Anderson’s assasination and they apparently had nothing to do with the case. But nobody is looking into why the authorities killed these apaprently innocent men in another abuse of power, presided and protected by Hugo Cahvez himslef. After all, the General prosecutor who manipulated and twisted the case left office because his term expired, nothing more, nothing less.

And then there is Patricia Poleo, set up by a fake witness and currently in exile, but somehow the victim is only Danilo Anderson, but at no tiem has there been any investigation as to how this lowly Prosecutor managed to own a few apartments and have lost of money in his apartment, besides a lifestyle which had nothing to do wiuth the meager salary that a public servant of his level receives.

But according to Chavez the problem is that “all powers have been infiltarted by the enemy” as if he had not ahd a half a dozen chances to purge any vestiges of opposition in all public powers which he continues to tailor and manipulate at will.

But Chavez’ lies and confrontational style seems to make little dent into his popularity. He continues his aggressive campaign style which in my opinion wil not help him in the States where his party is in trouble. But it must be that I know nothing about politics.

But maybe the startegy is not aimed at convincing anyone, but at energizing his electorate as abstention is likely to be the biggest enemy of teh revolution in the regional elections. And that may be what this whole thing is about. Recall that Chavze is popular and charismatic, but he has always has had trouble transferring that goodwill to his buddies. This job is even more difficult this time around, as most of those candiadtes directly chosen by him are lackluster and exactly the opposite from him.

Chavez has tried to make this campaign about him, but taht is also what he did last December and it did not work well. Of course, it is easier to cheat in small races than in a nationwide vote and maybe that is an intrinsic part of the strategy.

I find the opposition a little too overconfident for my taste. We have everything to gain, but expectations have been set high and it is not clear to me that people understand that 6 to 8 Governors will be an important victory for the opposition.

If Chavez loses Sunday, he is in trouble. His whole objective is to bring to referendum next year his indefinite reelection. If he suffers a significant loss on Sunday and with oil dropping like a stone, his only option to perpetuate himself will be set aside all pretense that this is a democarcy and act like the Dictator he has always wanted to be.

Maybe that is what is coming…