Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.
And today everyone was wondering why it was that CITGO backtracked on cutting off cheaper oil supplies to the US poor, which is distributed via Joe Kennedy’s Citizen Energy Corporation.
“Citizens Energy has recently been informed by CITGO that due to falling oil prices and the world economic crisis, CITGO has been forced to re-evaluate all their social programs, including the heating oil program, which has provided hundreds of thousands of low-income U.S. households with much-needed fuel these past three years.
I have reached out repeatedly to government officials in Venezuela at the highest levels, including former Venezuelan Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez and President Hugo Chavez. While I have yet to receive any indication of their ultimate decision, I will continue to fight and advocate for a continuation of this critical assistance for our most vulnerable citizens.“
As you all know, I oppose this program and was actually surprised it was the first one to be cutoff, since it is the cheapest one in terms of cost of Chavez’ cheaper oil aid programs to other countries. In fact, I was wondering how priorities were going to be managed, since cutting Kennedy off (He makes about 400,000 grand a year as President of this noble cause for himself) was certainly going to have a bigger splash than for example, asking PetroCaribe nations to pay up 75% rather than 50% up front.
But the impact must have been felt and today CITGO backtracked and Kennedy apparently managed to reach out to someone and solve his problem. Thus, as Venezuelans are being asked to tighten their pants, their imports get more expensive as the Government reduces items that receive dollars at the official rate of exchange and the country’s reserves are threatened, Chavez once again, establishes politics as his main priority.
It was only about a year and a half ago that Hugo Chavez said in unequival fashion when talking about the 2007 Constitutional referendum to allow his indefinite reelection:
“No, no and one thousand times no. If there is continuos reelection here it should be only for the President…No, no, let’s forget about it..they are defending party interests. I will do what the people say, not what one group or the other says, the people own the sovereignty”
Of course, the people rejected that exact proposal in Dic. 2007, but he wanted to try again, but those silly polls put him so far behind that he had this sovereign revelation that the people somehow now want everyone to be allowed to be reelected indefinitely.
I wonder what happens now to the recently reelected President of the National Assembly Cilia Flores who said that it was not the same to reelect the Governor, or a Mayor than the President of the country, who directs national and international politics.
Or Deputy Carlos Escarra, who barely two or three weeks ago justified Chavez’ proposal to limit reelection to the President with these now infamous words: “To extend reelection to other levels would be to split the Republic into fragments. Our vision is that of a State-Nation”
And he turned out to have a very short term vision, no?
So now everyone has to change their tune. The idea is that now that everyone can benefit from the indefinite reelection, they will work for it rather than against it like they did for the December 2007 Constitutional referendum.
Which still makes it illegal and now, in the eyes of the voters, the “people”, the owners of the sovereignty, extremely confusing. And the opposition has to take advantage of that. Show them Chavez versus Chavez, arguing both sides of the equation in his best incoherent style that we are accustomed to.
There is no Nation-State concept. It is just how to perpetuate Chavez in power stepping over the law and the Constitution and why not, everything said by Hugo Chavez before about the perversion of allowing everyone to be reelected indefinitely.
Right before the
end of the year, the Government made the decision to cut in half the
travel quota for foreign currency given to Venezuelan residents to
travel abroad. The quota was reduced from US$ 5,000 for credit card use
to US$ 2,500 and the cash advance was reduced from US$ 500 to US$ 400.
The decision makes sense. Last year the Government gave out
almost US$ 5 billion (US$ 4.76 billion to be precise). Thus, by
reducing the allocation in half the Government should save at least US$
2.4 billion, more than ten percent of what I estimate the Government will receive in foreign currency in 2009 if oil prices stay at current levels.
But the savings are likely to be much larger than that. First of
all, the Government also gave out US$ 1 billion for airfares, which is
likely to be reduced significantly as people travel less or closer,
given that they have less money to spend using this subsidy to the rich.
But beyond that, the reduction also limits arbitrage opportunities which I mocked in my Oligarco Burguesito post
a year and a half ago. In fact, the Government has wasted huge amounts
of money by financing people who take travelers to Central America and
the Caribbean for a weekend, all expenses paid, in exchange for a
fraction of the quota. The organizers of these trips would then sell
the dollars obtained in this way and sell them in the parallel swap
market at the prevailing rate, which today stands at more than twice
the value of the official rate. Since the total amount is now smaller,
profits will be reduced significantly and the business is likely to be
quite limited in 2009. Thus, the Government will probably save much
more than 50% of the amount given last year.
The fact that this was the first measure by the Government to save
foreign currency in 2009, indicates that there are no plans to devalue
the currency so far, since reducing the gap between the fficial and the
swap rate would have generated savings in itself.
Of course, the Government is simply reducing a distortion introduced
by the Government itself. Besides the waste in the arbitrage created,
the quota represents a perverse and silly subsidy to those that are
better off and certainly makes little sense economically and least of
all for a Government that calls itself revolutionary.
The decision to cut the quota also indicates that the Government has
given up on trying to attract the middle class which was the main
beneficiary of the subsidy and is likely o reduce the Government’s
popularity within that strata of the population.
In fact, I have been amazed at how unpopular the measure has been,
with groups going to the Supreme Court to argue that this was somehow a
right that the Government could not take away as it represents a
limitation on the freedom of movement.
Of course, what is perverse and incredible is that while Venezuelans are restricted in this way, the oil subsidies
to Cuba, the Caribbean, Argentina, Central America and yes, the US, as
in the previous post, continue in earnest. Venezuelans are indeed
second class citizens for the robolution. Politics rules and
Venezuelans be damned!!!
Those that can afford it will continue traveling by going to the
parallel market, which will see more pressure in 2009, as the
Government has moved many items off the CADIVI list. It is in some
sense a stealth devaluation as more goods have to be purchased at the
higher rate and it is the Government that sells foreign currency in the
swap market to get Bolivars at the higher rate.
Quite a convoluted and distorted economic framework which Chavez
still dares call as being part of the robust economy he has created.
Nothing robust about it, as we are likely to learn slowly over the next few months.
When Hugo Chávez first suggested an amendment to allow his indefinite reelection, one of the arguments given by his legal cronies was that an amendment was different than a reform and therefore was not covered by the Constitutional limitation (see Chapter IX) that the same reform can not be submitted within the same Constitutional period.
In time, polls started coming out against Chavez suggesting that the amendment proposal would be defeated by some 17-20 percentage points in a referendum, which would be hard to overcome, given that Chavez wants to also give the referendum an illegal fast track and vote on this before March.(The longer he waits, the more the people will feel the drop in oil prices)
Thus, yesterday the autocrat switched gears, saying that he will now ask for a Constitutional Reform (even if he is not calling it that) that would allow any elected position to have no time limitations. The idea behind this is that Chavez hopes that now other politicians will join him in his support of the proposal and this may somehow lead to its approval.
Chavez had curiously been against this concept, going as far as suggesting there is only one Chavez, so why should other positions be subject to reelection. But politics is politics and that is all Chavez cares about, so he changed his mind in the hope that this would allow the approval of the indefinite reelection for his Presidency which is scheduled to end in earlier 2013.
Except that this is plainly illegal. The Constitution is extremely clear on this and the question of Chavez’ indefinite reelection can not be brought up again until after he leaves office. In fact, if the law and the Constitution were followed, there could be no referendum until December and one could consider a proposal to have everyone but the President be elected indefinitely, but not Chavez. That is what the Bolivarian Constitution clearly and unequivocally states.
But the opposition seems to be playing Chavez’ game now. Since there is no hope that the Supreme Court or any Higher Court will go against the autocrat’s wishes and whims, then they are throwing Chavez’ playbook back at him saying, ok, let’s go vote on it and see what happens, because they know not only that they defeated Chavez once already, but that polls say that the people are so much against voting on the issue again.
Thus, this poor country has been thrown into a sort of legal limbo, where both sides are willing to step outside the rule of law and let illegal votes and referenda decide major issues.
The danger is that bending the rule of law like this by both sides may be one day bent beyond anything we can imagine today by one of the two sides and turn the country into anarchy, where everything can be justified independent of the laws and the Constitution, as long as people vote on it.
And that is not what organized societies are all about. So, beware!
I have not been posting much, despite a number of interesting things happening, because my blog software provider, who also supplies with the storage space has disappeared and the code sent to me to increase the storage (after paying $40) does not work. I have called and sent emails, but after ten days there has been no response. I am almost out of space so that if these people do not resurface at some point I will have to either a) stop blogging, b) start a blog with another software/service or c) begin removing posts to make space.
I really don’t like any of the three options, so I will have to take things one post at a time for the time being…
We have read your letter criticizing the report A Decade Under Chavez: Political Intolerance and Lost Opportunities for Advancing Human Rights in Venezuela by Human Rights Watch and are flabbergasted by its superficiality and the same lack of academic rigor you unfairly attribute to HRW.
In fact, its title alone is quite deceiving as some of the names signing the letter hardly qualify as “experts” on Latin America and it is quite clear that the common bond of those signing the letter is simply a blind support towards Hugo Chavez and his fake pseudo revolution. It is not based on any factual knowledge about what is happening on Venezuela and what you criticize of the cited report.
On the issue of discrimination on political grounds, you are of course referring to the infamous Tascon/Chavez list, a perverse database of those that signed a petition to recall the mandate of Hugo Chavez, which has been widely used to discriminate in employment and providing services to Venezuelan citizens. You question the veracity of such discrimination, which Teodoro Petkoff has called an “apartheid” list, but maybe HRW should have linked this video from the documentary “The List”(For a written summary of “The List”, read here) where in minute 0:49 Hugo Chavez says “Anyone that signs against Chavez his name will be registered for history”. Later in minute 2:17 President Chavez in his Sunday variety show Alo Presidente (#214) jokes about the Tascon list and the fear people have of being in it. Finally in minute 3:08 at a public Cabinet meeting Hugo Chavez says: “The famous Tascon list should be filed away. That is now over. Let the Tascon list be buried, it surely played its role at a certain moment, but it is now over” :What else could the Venezuelan President have meant when he publicly made that order to “file away” and “bury” that list? Bury it had a very clear meaning: Chavez knew and backed the list for a long time, never condemned it and just ordered that it no longer be used. He ordered it buried as local newspapers began printing dozens of cases daily of discrimination and firings using the Tascon/Chavez list. Many of these cases are well documented in “The List”
But in the name of accuracy and rigor maybe you could all have simply taken the time to download the Tascon/Chavez database and played with it. This perverse use of technology represents and abominable example about what mankind can do in the name of ideology and politics. It classifies millions of Venezuelans as pro or against Hugo Chavez. Those in favor are called “Patriots”, of course, and to insure that the appropriate pressure can be brought upon those against this empty revolution, it includes everyone’s address, voting center and a powerful search function.
Just think, you can spy on your family and neighbors from the comfort of your own laptop and know whether they signed against Chavez (if you are against him) or whether they have benefited or not from the Government;s direct assistant programs (if you are for him), creating a tool for division and hate for all Venezuelans
Yes, Venezuela is indeed not a political model for anyone as clearly exposed by HRW and Jose Miguel Vivancos. The country is a signatory of these International agreements and declarations which you failed to take into account in your letter. But not knowing them is no excuse, particularly when you are asking for the rigor that an academic peer review process should have.
And yes, in most cases it can not be proven that there was discrimination. When one of us was denied a passport, he was not given a piece of paper stating it was because he had signed against Chavez, but was told only verbally that was the true reason. This happened to thousands of Venezuelans who could not obtain a passport or an ID card for months after the 2004 recall referendum.
As for employment or Government contracts, even after Chavez asked that the list be buried, it was used to get rid of the enemies of the state who worked at oil company Sincor when the Government nationalized it. The newly named President of that company left no doubt about it: “This is a matter of the State. There is a list being circulated in the press and it is real. It came out of here, we are investigating it and whoever leaked it will go to jail. It will be applied to key personnel which is within or outside the company”. And yes the people were fired, so much for inaccuracy and hearsay, no?
And there is the case of Rocio San Miguel and two other lawyers (shown in “The List”) who worked at the Council for Borders, who just happened to tape 55 minutes of telephone conversations with their superiors, who explained to them they were fired for signing against Hugo Chavez and that the Venezuelan Vice-President directly approved it. That case is now in the Interamerican Human Rights Court.
And while you correctly state the Government had the right to fire the oil workers for striking, you bypass the not so irrelevant fact that it not only did it illegally, ignoring Venezuela’s strict labor legislation, but it confiscated severance pay (also illegal under Venezuelan law) as well as voluntary pension fund contributions and savings of all these workers without any Court order allowing it. These workers ranged from low level messengers to secretaries, to indeed, high level executives. Venezuelan Labor Courts have failed to process a single one of the appeals for these cases since 2003. If that is not overt discrimination and violation of due process and the rule of law, then what is?
As for self-censorship which you so un-rigorously dismiss, you fail to note the dozens of reporters whose programs have been cancelled in the media outlets who decided to “follow orders” from the Government, in contrast to the illegal termination of broadcasting license and seizure of the property of TV station RCTV, which refused to obey the orders from highest levels of power in Venezuela.
And it is absolutely laughable when you state that “The report even uses innuendo to imply that the government is to blame for attacks on journalists”, when the Venezuelan Government has failed to provide protection to over 250 reporters as requested by the Interamerican Human Rights Court, within treaties of which Venezuela is a signatory.
Finally, you question HRW from using a report by an “opposition blogger”, calling him mentally unstable, for which you also have no evidence as no professional has ever declared him so, but you fail to question a single fact of the reference cited by HRW. You will find this very difficult to do, since that reference is a factual description of the Tascon/Chavez database and proof that the Electoral Board authorized the release of copies of all of the signatures to pro-Chavez Deputy Luis Tascon.
And I do find it remarkable that you use as evidence that some people have called for the violent overthrow ofthe Venezuelan Government presided by Hugo Chavez who supported two coup attempts, violent ones at that, and who actually led one of them which left over 200 Venezuelans dead in the streets, including children. An interesting double standard you all have in the defense of human rights, to say the least.
In the end you letter is a defficient attempt at discrediting HRW, which curiously defended Mr. Chavez in 2002 despite the deaths induced by the Venezuelan President against a peaceful march. Your letter fails precisely where you attempted to find fault with the HRW report, it lacks rigor, it is superficial and represents a terrible error for you to sign such a partisan document.
Meanwhile back in Venezuela, Hugo Chavez seeks his indefinite reelection despite a referendum denying it in 2007 and against the express prohibition by the Venezuelan Constitution (Title IX) to consider the same question twice in a single Constitutional period. Moreover, Hugo Chavez issued 26 Bills in July 2008 which contain provisions also rejected in the same referendum.
This is the wholesale violation of the democratic rights of the majority of Venezuelans who voted against such provisions in December 2007
Remarkably, there are still those like you “experts” that have barely probed the surface of what is going on in our beleaguered country that continue to defend the indefensible, continue to support an outlaw Government which lacks the support of Venezuelan academia and students, but you have failed to even ask yourself why this is.
Ironically, while you sit in the comforts of your offices supporting the Chavez revolution and working on your academic projects, your social science colleagues in Venezuela receive meager funding and the annual social sciences award has not been given in the last two years .
It is truly sad when in the name of academia a serious and very unique institution exclusively devoted to the defense of human rights is attacked for political purposes in such a low quality and superficial way. But it is even sadder and a shame, when the systematic and well organized violations of human rights by the Venezuelan Government presided by Hugo Chavez are ignored by those that claim to dream with and believe in the basic dignity and rights of all human beings.
Miguel Octavio, Daniel Duquenal and Alek Boyd, bloggers
Felix J. Tapia, Professor-Reseracher, Universidad Central de Venezuela
Kensey Amaya, Ph.D. Candidate, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Benjamin Scharifker, Professor of Chemistry, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Member, Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas y Naturales
Diego Arria
Maria J. Gonzaez Associate Professor, Department of Zoology, Miami University, Oxford Ohio Gioconda San-Blas, Individuo de Numero de la Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas y Naturales
Jaime Requena, Miembro de la Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas y Naturales
Claudio Bifano, Presidente de la Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas y Naturales
Luiz Gomez C. Investigador, Cendes, Universidad Central de Venezuela
Gustavo Coronel
Balvant Rajani, Principal Research Officer, National Research Council Canada
Alpha http://free-opinion-venezuela.blogspot.com/ Kate http://rolita816.blogspot.com Iruna Urruticoechea, Periodista
Carlos Armando Figueredo, Profesor Postgrado en Derechos Humanos,Universidad Central de Venezuela
Julia The end of Venezuela as I know ithttp://antipatrioticvenezuelan.blogspot.com Carlo Caputo, Investigador Titular Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas
Grupo 400+ http://g400mas.blogspot.com
Heinz R. Sonntag, Emeritus Prof. of Sociology, Reserach Fellow and Professor of CENDES-UCV, Universidad Central de Venezuela.
Silvya de Puki, Interpreter, Translator, RECIVEX Denver
Ignacio Iribarren, Miembro de la Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas y Naturales
Humberto La Roche
Nora Palacios, Systems Analyst, Department of Education, Victoria, Canad
Dorindo Burgo, Hermano Marista
Jose Felix Oletta, Profesor Jubilado, Escuale de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Central de Venezuela
Carlos Walter, Investigador CENDES, Universidad Central de Venezuela
Rafael Hidalgo, The Open University, UK
Alvaro Rotondaro Gomez, Abogado Werner Corrales Leal, former ambassador to the UN and the WTO in Geneva; former professor at the Center for Development Studies (CENDES) in Caracas; Senior Fellow at the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva
Tanya Miquilena; development specialist in andean countries
Cheryl Riera
Isaac Nahon Serfaty, Professor, Department of Communications, University of Otawa, Canada Barbara Bessone
Hayde Deutsch,Abogada, Mcs en Seguridad Social, Docente Universitaria, Presidenta de Fuerza Liberal
Carlos Alberto Moros Ghersi, Medico, Profesor UCV, ex-Rector Universidad Central de Venezuela
Jackie Hines
J. Scott Barnard, blogger
Rachel Chonchol, another Venezuelan Citizen
Jorge Mostany, Profesor Titular del Departamento de QuÃÂÂmica, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Miembro de la Academia de Ciencias Fisicas, Matematicas y Naturales
Rosalba Guerra, Ingeniero
Robert Bottome, Editor, Veneconomy
Nathalie Brogan
Soledad Gutierrez, Comunicador Social
Adele Mondolfi, Abogado, Investigadora Artes Plasticas, UCV
Luis Felipe Cabana, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Maria J. Diaz M.
Clemy Machado de Acedo, Profesora Jubilada UCV
Pedro Vaca Gonzalez, Ingeniero de yacimientos, ex-investigador de PDVSA-Intevep (despedido por razones poliÂÂticas).
Rosalba Guerra
V. J. Los Arcos Ayape, Journalist
Mercedes H. Rosas, Investigador Ramon y Cajal, Universidad de Sevilla
Miguel Albujas Dorta, Profesor-Investigador del Instituto de Filosofia de la Universidad Central de Venezuela
Paul Esqueda, Prof, of Engineering Penn State University
Dorian Dyer
Duke Banks Romero, Public Administration Specialist
Andres Dominguez Burgos
Roberto Rodriguez Abreu, Fundacion Jardin Botanico, Merida
Daphne Paul, writer
Jerry Diaz
Tomas Paez, Profesor Titular Universidad Central de Venezuela, Coordinador Observatorio PYME de Venezuela
(If you would like your name added, please leave a comment or send me an email at devilexcrement@mail.com and let me know your name and how to identify you)