The more I talk to people, the more I am convinced that the recently announced measures to shut down Malls and shopping centers make little sense. I wished I knew more about the subject to talk with some authority, but maybe readers can point out the flaws in my thinking:
1) From what I have been able to read on the web, electricity usage goes up in the morning, reaches a plateau/peak around 11-11:30 AM and starts dropping after 7 PM. Thus, the restrictions seem to be attacking the slower periods of the day, not the peak periods. Since most power is hydroelectric, it can’t be shut down completely, so you want to concentrate on the peaks.
2) Except for the savings associated with the one hour shutdown of the stores from 10 AM to 11 AM, the morning shut down will simply make life harder for those that work in offices within malls. Given that food places will be shut down, people will find the nearest bakery, cafe or whatever. These places will consume more power to make the additional bread/pastry/coffee, there will be some savings on air conditioning and lights, but not in the electricity used to make the products. Since parking lots will still be open for office worlers and the like, there will be no saving in lighting. Banks, drugstores and the like in Malls will force people to go elsewhere, but the air conditioning in the banks will not be shut down. Sure, lights will be out, so what.
3) Restaurants and movie theaters will now be shut down, but this will happen at the hours that electricity usage in the country drops sharply, just after 8PM-8:30 PM. Does this really produce savings?
4) The crisis should hopefully ease by the time the next rainy season comes around. If a Mall or shopping center buys an electric plant, it will be in place by the time the crisis eases, thus it will only be useful for the next crisis, which will come anyway, but it is a wasteful investment.
5) What is and isn’t a shopping center? The definition is not clear so that merchants are applying it uniformly: they are all shutting down when more than a couple of businesses or stores is housed in the same building, whether strip mall or shopping center. This is in the end extremely discriminatory, as stand alone restaurants, bars, discos, drugstores and whatevers will benefit from the excess new clientele without having done much to get it. This will make some people rich, but will drive others to bankruptcy.
6) This will have an important economic impact. My office is at a Mall where restaurants will not even bother to open at night, movie theaters will cut hours and cab drivers plan to eliminate one shift. This implies less economic activity and things looked bad before this silly measures. Like the ostrich, the Minister of Electricity “rejects this possibility” which only goes to show the stupidity of the revolution and its revolutionaries. They reject capitalism and seem to promote a strategy of less for everyone. This is absolutely stupid. Of course, the Chavez-filled National Assembly rather than look at all these real problems will look into whether Colombia is or not creating Chavez “False Positive” chimera.
This is no democracy, this is a pantomime of what a country is supposed to be.
The Devil's Excrement 
March 28, 2010 at 4:29 am
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January 13, 2010 at 8:15 pm
Veneconomia article: Guri near collapse. Date: 2003
http://bit.ly/88hlh6
Whose fault is it?
January 8, 2010 at 9:51 pm
Arturito, how come you did not quote us from this wonderful report from your Startfor friends:
Political Consequences?
An improvement in the weather, a change in the time zone, electricity quotas
and thousands of energy efficient light bulbs may effectively stabilize the
situation in the medium term. However, the long-term prospects of the
sector’s survival are dim without a massive influx of rejuvenating capital.
But Venezuela has enough money woes even in light of high oil prices, and a
steady source of reliably managed cash may not be available.
With no comprehensive solution in sight, energy scarcity may be something
Venezuela will have to get used to. A political response opposing the
government is possible, but the opposition remains disunited and hamstrung,
so its ability to use the electricity crisis as a platform to challenge
Chavez is likely limited. In the long term, however, the electricity
situation will contribute to the decline in the Venezuelan economy that
started in 2009 and shows no signs of slowing. As the economy declines, so
does the Chavez government’s ability to meet its populist spending promises,
which is a very serious long term threat to the regime.
January 8, 2010 at 9:41 pm
Miguel:
No, thank you for listening ! I was lucky to get hold of an Opsis link that allowed me to download their monthly reports. I remembered the name and looked with Google ….
January 7, 2010 at 10:36 pm
Yes, I finally got it when I read the Corpoelec presentation which had a better title for the graph. I ahve now summarized that presentation and other info in a new post on the whole problem. Thanks for your hlep!!
January 7, 2010 at 9:29 pm
Miguel:
Regarding your question of 6-Jan 10:23 pm, about the graphs in the Opsis website (November 2009 PDF archives, page 33) the graph at the left is the water level (cota) from 2003 to 2009, and yes, on May 2003 the level was down to 245 meters. In November 2009 it was around 263 mts..
The graph at the right is the flow (Cubic meters per second) of the Caroni river for each month, from the periods of 1950 to 2009. You have minimums per month, averages and maximums. In red current year 2009. You can see that the lowest flow is from January to May and that the 2009-2010 trend is very close to the historic minimums.
So it it not just the case of the current water level, but of the downward trend which is very worrisome….
January 7, 2010 at 8:40 pm
gringo
if it is not el niño it will be la niña, and then la sobrina and later la nieta, and if necessary tu abuela but it will never be chavez fault. but that is OK, for once it seems that even chavistas know even if they pretend to be full of forgiveness.
January 7, 2010 at 8:38 pm
arturo
forgive me but i cannot see how you replying to my comment would put you off topic since my comment to you is on topic.
the real reason why you do not want to answer is that you run out of excuses for chavez, and so try to find a way to bail out of this thread.
“ils sont trop verts, dit-il, et bon pour des goujats”
January 7, 2010 at 2:24 pm
Regarding what is the problem at Guri- low water level from El Niño etc., many commenters here have pointed out that the current water level at Guri is not abnormally low, and in fact is higher than for 2003 and most of 2004. Last October, Caracas Gringo posted A Black Swan Called Guri? I recommend that those who have not yet read the entire article to do so.
It matters because officials at the Guri hydropower plant/dam operated by Corpoelec subsidiary Edelca report that turbine unit No.2 – which is currently shut down for maintenance – vibrates abnormally when in operation.
The Edelca officials also report that the concrete spillway that funnels water into turbine unit No. 2 has suffered structural damage (“perforations”) about 93 meters above the turbine unit, which make it increasingly difficult to control the volume/flow of water running through the power generation turbine.
However, turbine unit No.2 is only one of seven turbine units currently out of service at Guri, which has 20 turbine units with a combined power generation capacity of 10,000 MW. The other turbine units offline at present include Nos. 5, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 16.
Regional newspaper Correo del Caroni reports that turbine unit No.8 is almost ready to be restarted.
But Edelca officials at Guri complain that Corpoelec’s insistence that the repairs be accelerated is creating a dangerously unsafe situation in the turbine hall.
One attempt to restart turbine unit No. 8 earlier in October had to be suspended when the turbine’s rotation speed red-lined.
Turbine unit No. 16 has unspecified operational/technical problems which Edelca officials decline to disclose, even off the record. But a union official at Guri tells Caracas Gringo that turbine unit No. 16 is also, like turbine unit No. 2, a prime candidate for a catastrophic failure.
The other inoperative turbine units – Nos. 5, 6, 10 and 12 – are in the process of being maintained/repaired and soon will be restarted, according to Edelca and Corpoelec managers.
But union officials at Guri warn that these inoperative units also have unspecified problems which technicians are having problems repairing.
The issue is not El Niño but that Venezuela is run by an out of control problem child who wants to run everything but lacks the competence to do so.
January 7, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Having visited a few blogs that delve on the subject of who should and should not be blacked out, bypassing altogether the reasons for the crisis in the first place, here is an article from a fellow who is really asking the right questions. Sorry for those who do not speak Spanish but this chap is right on the button in this case.
http://www.noticias24.com/actualidad/noticia/136827/petkoff-fustiga-la-comica-electrica-que-ha-puesto-el-gobierno/
January 7, 2010 at 12:08 pm
“This is my blog, there is no free speech guaranteed by anyone, this is like my home, if you dont behave I kick you out. Your free speech is protected by the fact that you can start your own blog any time you want,”
Bien dicho Miguel !
Arturo,
I normally do not bother with psf’s or people like them, because it bores me ( I know I know, how selfish of me)..but there is a kind of selfishness that is good and one that is bad.See below:
Personally if it were me I would have banned you eons ago, but this is not my personal home, it is Miguel’s.If we cannot respect private property how can we respect freedom for each individual?If we don’t respect freedom for individuals to their rights to choose their own path, then how can we pretend that socialism as Chavez knows it will offer each of us any satisfaction of our inner needs? Impossible.!!
This is rudimentary logic.
Unfortunately Ideology blinds people to reality.You must know that people can have good intentions and not be adherents of ideology.
Call it( ideology) a filter through which ideologues perceive reality.Take off the blinders or filters and you will tremble with fear, but you will begin a true connection between you and yourself.Reality hurts, but ideology destroys.Through the pain of facing reality maybe you can start being of service to yourselves and others.
January 7, 2010 at 12:01 pm
This is a bit on information to help you understand the Guri problem.
Guri has two houses: the old house produces little over 2000 MW and the new house little over 7000 MW.
Intakes of the old house are at 217m over the sea level and the intakes of the new house are at 236m.
The top level (aliviaderos) is at 272m
According to the government, today’s level is 261m and is going down at a rate of 9cm per day.
If this were true, they did not have any problem with the rainy season at 4 months from now.
The problem is something else. The generators are out of service for a lack of maintenance.
January 7, 2010 at 9:42 am
If I answer Daniel’s comment Octavio will accuse me of being off-topic. Hence I desist. I prefer to wait since Octavio can ban me any time under his concept of free speech. Correct?
January 6, 2010 at 11:26 pm
Here is the Corpoelec presntation:
as you can see the savings from the shopping centers is 20 MW out of 980 MW that the plans contemplates in savings. It is still not celar to me why the flow is much lower and the level is higher.
January 6, 2010 at 11:02 pm
Arturo
To bring you back into topic.
It is all really very simple when you think of it.
The current electric crisis is due to Chavez mismanagement. 95% of the blame is to be laid at the feet of Chavez, 5% to el niño, la niña, la sobrina or whatever.
Thus, why should the malls, the CVG workers, the ALCASA workers, etc, pay for Chavez mistakes?
Not only your 2002 comparison is odious, but it is dead wrong.
If chavismo were a civilized movement, we would be starting the new year with a brand new cabinet of apolitical technicians to deal with the emergency while Chavez would have announced his decision not to run again for office and remain the constitutionally elected care taker. Heck, in fact he should be calling for early presidential election where he would not be running. But since Chavez is a thug then it is not happening and the same leeches remain at their job, or on the next chair job, same difference.
January 6, 2010 at 10:30 pm
It is all lunacy and madness in Venezuela. Its as if all the develop of economic thought of the last 50 years has been discarded because a strong man read a book.
Of all the counties in the world LEAST suitable for a militaristic dictatorship I can only imagine Venezuela.
But this is what you have.
Deal with it.
January 6, 2010 at 10:23 pm
Moses: Do you understand why the level of water in the figure to the left of the one you mention does not look as critical as the flow on the figure on the right does? It looks like the levels in 2003 and 2004 were much lower.
In 1998 the Caldera Government was planning to privatize the regional electric companies, because there was no money to invest the amounts required to sustain the future requirements.
Giordani has a Bs. in EE but his Ph.D. is in Urban Planning from the University of Sussex if I recall correctly. His academic career is nothing to write home about becuase hi mixed his starnge economic ideas with his planning projects. (In a 1995 paper he praised the “sucess” of the North Korean economy)
January 6, 2010 at 10:07 pm
Heard in a radio interview today that all the electricity that commercial centers (malls) use is 3% of total of all used in Venezuela. HMMM saving 15 to 20% of 3% is like somebody said before, throwing a chair of the Queen Mary to save weight ….
About Guri dam water levels:
In a previous comment:
“You can get more info about Venezuelan Electric System (SEN Sistema Electrico Nacional) here (look fot the PDF files in Boletin Informativo Mensual
http://opsis.org.ve/#
There is a graph in the November 2009 report were you can see the Guri dam water levels, is down to 2,000 M3 / sec from a max of 14,000 M3 / sec…. and very close to historic minimums. But there was a trend, why did the Government wait until the tank was empty before taking measures ???
Another one for Ripley:
The Minister in charge of Planning (Cordiplan) Jorge Giordani is …. an Electrical Engineer….
Guaicaipuro Lameda, also an Electrical Engineer and former President of PDVSA until 2001 told im a recent radio interview that he believes that all this was done on purpose, since by 2001 there were studies that showed that by 2008 we would have an electric problem, it took more time due to slow economic growth in 2008-2009.
January 6, 2010 at 3:56 pm
… and as the water temperature increases slowly, not aware of the change the frog eventually die.
Is it martial law without martial law??
January 6, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Gahh…! What was it again why I usually don’t read the comment sections anymore?
Don’t feed the troll!!!
Maybe some other topic will help: has anyone actually seen anything about a campaign about saving energy? I can’t claim that I have…
January 6, 2010 at 2:32 pm
Thanks Eric but there is a difference between crticizing for criticisms sake – which is what the Venezuelan opposition has been doing for at least 10 years and getting nowhere, and giving coinstructive criticism. The reason why there is no constrcutive criticism is that the opposition has nothing to offer and just wants power to get their hands on the international reserves. In any case – not to worry.
Here is an excerpt from the 2010 Stratfor report on LatIn America which bears out what I have always said on this blog – the opposition has nothing superior to offer except whining complaints about everything.
En Venezuela, las dudas se ciernen en cuanto al control político. Habrá elecciones legislativas en 2010, que podrían dar a la oposición un nuevo punto de encuentro, pero esta continuará estando desunida y desorganizada, lo que le permitirá al Gobierno mantener su mayoría actual con bastante facilidad. De no ser por una crisis externa (que podría desencadenar en una crisis económica repentina y masiva) el control del gobierno probablemente se mantendrá. – Informe Stratfor sobre América Latina en 2010
January 6, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Wow Arturo by your definition no one should criticize any entity, you basically define a dictatorship, not a democracy. In a free society anyone can complain about anything, that is an individual’s right, and to be honest that is what keeps politicians in line. that is Chavez has tried to remove to protect the fact that he is incompetent known at large. I pity your mindset, you show no respect for people’s right to speak, therefore you get no respect from people that love freedom.
January 6, 2010 at 12:55 pm
”
Arturo Says:
Miguel, la última, la última: and you are evil and racist and elitist and…OK,
that was the last time, I swear I don’t write again
”
Wee joke, wee joke.
January 6, 2010 at 12:05 pm
And frankly Octavio, you do not deserve any respect. You’re just too guabinoso and are flogging a dead horse since you do not even have a plan or strategy to defeat this government. You look at the trees and not the whole forest.
I have just pity for you.
January 6, 2010 at 10:30 am
Arturo –
With all due respect – there are some serious misconceptions –
Closing of the malls and all businesses during the stoppage of 2002 was not a business decision but a political protest – popular or not its up to discussion but was not done as a measure to save energy or help the economy. The whole point of this discussion was and is if the closin of malls is an effective energy saving measure, and as you can see the consensus seems to be that it is not. If that would solve the energy problem there would be no discussion about it. But it really does not solve anything.
There would be less anti-Chavez (or his government) sentiments if any of his measures could be viewed as efficient and improving the system. And I am not even expecting that the govt accepts blame for its inaction. I am sure the Empire did something to the power generation through the Colombian military bases and its syphoning water out of Guri. I know it’s a sarcastic comment but I would not be surprised to hear it from someone in the govt.
California had blackouts and brownouts, all of the Northeast had a blackout a few years ago too. Electric systems are not perfect and are subject to issues but the only thing government attempts to do is establish rules that promote investment in the system by private entities ( money making entities not socialist entities ) and protect consumers from price gouging. Rules are clear and defendable by consumers and enterprises and vary by system. There are over 10 different electric systems in the US. In Mexico where the govt has the monopoly they established highly sucessful system to promote private investment to build new power plants and minimize govt expenses.
There are system and many examples around the world – closing malls solves nothing ( and by the way didn’t work either back in 2002)
To say that we are obsessed with Chavez is not all true, I believe most people here are obsessed with seeing a better Venezuela, a place with its true potential and with very few exceptions during the last 11 years its hard to find something ( I didnt say impossible) that has improved the lives of everyone.
After 11 years of a government with unprecedented power and money we find ourselves, hoping to find milk, eggs or beef in a market, with water and power rationing, a deteriorating infrastructure and oil company, and a worsening of security, and that applies to ALL ( not just those in the opposition).
I always believed that Chavez would have stayed in power forever if he had done something for the country and its people – but I feel confident to say a majority does not feel that way – maybe they just dont care as long as their lives continues as usual – or until it doesn’t if it is not too late !
January 6, 2010 at 10:29 am
Arturo
2: Don’t tell the power generation companies how to save electricity when they are in their competemce to take such measures as they see fit.
Take a look at Planta Centro, run by CADAFE, and tell us how competent this government-run entity is. Please. (link from a Devil’s posting)
So you object to bloggers making suggestions but have no objection to Chávez making suggestions, when his compentence in this area is rather suspect.
3: Power generation is a strategic area for everyone in Venezuela and hence is not subject to freemarket rules.
When the government freezes electricity prices in spite of years of 20% inflation, thus hampering investment in new electrical generation capacity, you have a point, in a rather perverse way.
4: In any country where there are energy shortages the government ALWAYS plays a role in blackouts and or rationing.
Look again at the Planta Centro photos, and tell us about the government. Since the government knew about impending shortages for at least seven years and did not follow through on the plans, you are quite correct that the government plays a role in blackouts and rationing.
January 6, 2010 at 8:06 am
@LD here some thoughts of Daniel
“The fact of the matter is that aluminum production has been in trouble for a decade already and steel production at SIDOR has been plagued with problems since it was nationalized by the government in 2008. Some trade union guys already last year were saying that the government was going to use the electricity excuse to close down facilities it is unable to manage properly since nationalization. Whether this governmental strategy is a maneuver to dodge its incompetence blame/guilt is in fact irrelevant. What matters is the consequences of deliberately (or unwillingly?) dropping the production of steel and aluminum.”
Since some time I follow whats happening with CVG on http://www.correodelcaroni.com/ and here http://www.damianprat.com
and there is more and more social unrest, I think not very long and it will explode. Now there is that energy crisis, easy way to just shut the problems off…
Sure the demand of energy is more high then in 2003 but thats about 10m of level difference were talking about here – I am no specialist in hydroenergy but it seems to me a lot.
best wishes from europe -15°C – no aircon needed 😉
January 6, 2010 at 7:53 am
I hope this is your last comment in this blog, period, you did not even read my post. Chavez is destroying Venezuela, by like the ostrich you put your head in the ground or somewhere else. The Government should play a role I said how, you haven’t said how, it was stupid what they did, it is stupid how they corrected. This blog is about stupid Government policies, Chavez and his parody of a Government provides too many examples. Don’t tell me about the banks that will cost about 5% inflation, that is not unimportant. You are a Chavez fanatic, what can I say. I don’t want or need your respect.
January 6, 2010 at 7:47 am
This will be my last comment on this subject:
1: Close down your mall or your restaurant that is up to you
2: Don’t tell the power generation companies how to save electricity when they are in their competemce to take such measures as they see fit
3: Power generation is a strategic area for everyone in Venezuela and hence is not subject to freemarket rules
4: In any country where there are energy shortages the government ALWAYS plays a role in blackouts and or rationing.
5: Remember the rolling blackouts in California some 6- 7 years ago.
6: When you personally stop being so arrogant and never admit to your errors and hypocrisy then you might gain some respect.
You have incredible double standards since you always show a knee jerk reaction to whatever is happening in Venezuela – banks, power shortages, you name it.
The reason for this is that you are OBSESSED with C hávez as many people in the opposition are. It’s a sickness not an intellectual exercise.
January 6, 2010 at 7:04 am
I just read an article in The Economist about how the industrialized nations are also using faeces to generate power.
I think that is the way to go for chavismo: install a power-generating plant under each chavista employee, at least in that way they would give something back to the nation.
Seriously: I am not so sure Hugo wants to destroy the capitalist system by closing shopping centres and the like (at least not now), it is just that he and his friends are improving all the time
January 6, 2010 at 6:39 am
“The water level thing at Guri is basically just “spin””
But today the demand is way higher than in 2003 and the other plants are not producing at capacity. So Guri will be faster at the limit. I couldn’t think of a “spin” if they are shutting Sidor and the Aluminium industry off.
January 6, 2010 at 6:34 am
Chavez also said he wanted the malls and industry to have own electricity generating plants and to put this to disposition of the government too. Maybe this is the way to convince the commerce and industry to do that.
So would Chavez avoid to invest in new plants, but the cost is indirectly much higher, as the efficiency would be lower (and those plants are normally not designed to run 24/7), and by the way, the exhaust gases would be in populated areas (don’t forget also the transport of oil to the plants).
January 6, 2010 at 5:41 am
“I have no idea if the water level in the damm is really low, I would believe it if I saw it measured.”
See this article in ND (Spanish):
http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=607160
The water level thing at Guri is basically just “spin”
January 6, 2010 at 12:27 am
Hot topic.
Increase the price to reduce consumption. Invest the additional revenue to increase production. Increased production will (eventually) cause prices to fall.
But then, as someone noted above, this is as much about control as it is about energy.
January 5, 2010 at 11:25 pm
there you have it – thank you to the experts for chiming in.
PSFs: eat shit and die.
January 5, 2010 at 10:53 pm
I am all for conservation and people being energy responsible. But conservation and energy awareness is like throwing a deck chair off of the Queen Mary to reduce weight in this case.
The real issues in Venezuela in the power generation sector is complete neglect of the assets.
EDC was run ok but they constantly ignored maintenance procedures and recomendations alot of those units are just hanging on subject to failure at any moment.
The present government is completely responsible for this dilema now because without all of the corruption involved the regular waste and non upkeep of assets would still not put the country in this position. They bought all of these new units a couple thousand Megawatts of assets and they are just sitting there not even remotely ready for startup.
Venezuelans in general regard maintenance as a nuisance, look at the condition of all the buildings, roads , property etc. Go to any rented house or apartment building and see the neglect just compounding everywhere. Sorry to be blunt, but you know its true
Since 2003 , VZ has purchased more than 20 large combustion turbines, of which 3 or 4 are running . In addition, there are many smaller industrial units purchased also. The units are in various stages of completion, and you guessed it not being stored properly or securely. There have been instances of the brand new spare parts for the units sold as scrap metal.
The few new units that are running are catastrophic failures waiting to happen. There has been zero investment in plant operations, training or even basic necessities to do every day preventative maintenance.
Quality control on the fuel sources is non existent and cause many of the issues at the combustion plants, reducing life of parts and causing shutdowns due to poor quality fuel ( dirty) , routine maintenance is ignored and also lead to outages.
All of these projects are vehicles for corruption starting at the top with the Pacific Rim company , a purerly ficticious company with no power plant experience. The mobsters running the show here are wallowing in cash. The failure of the govt to get these plants running even though it has been widely known that this crisis was inevitable is pathetic.
Yeah blame it on El Nino.
I have no idea if the water level in the damm is really low, I would believe it if I saw it measured. If the Guri damm units are operated , maintained anything like any other industrial apparatus in Venezuela then no wonder. I guarantee that these Guri units have suffered from years of neglect , operator error etc.
The Planta Centro comedy has been going on for years. Arguably the worst run power plant in the entire world. These units are a disgrace. Even the last two years they have intended to get the units running, passing blame and firing people routinely they still are not even remotely able to provide basic plant operations , spare parts, or have the foresight to plan for operations during more than 5 years down. When and if they run its just a matter of time before there is a catastrophic failure. I heard recently they just lost one of the only untis running in November due to ” operator error” but the redundant system was ready to kick in to save the unit, it did and when the it energized unforuantely the motor was not connected beacuse it was cannibalized for parts. they say that the unit will be off the grid for at least 18 months to two years.
With all of the money for these new plants squandered and the new units sitting idly by the time some responsible people get to them to help the country they will have been found to be stored badly requiring replacement or millions of dollars in refurbishement before ever running.
Use the flashlight when you piss in the middle of the night, close the movies down everything will be fine.
January 5, 2010 at 9:52 pm
Arturo:
What is it you defend? Because everytime you show up all I see is like if this were a Caracas Magallanes game instead of the future of Venezuela. Do you really agree with the verbal incotinence of Chavez? Can you tell us why in 20 words or less? Can you tell us what Chavez has done in 11 years? Is this the BS you expect out of life? Wouldn’t you expect a serious Government to have proposed something more coherent? Is the elctricty problem this Government’s? Or is it the Adeco’s? Caan you be specific and not talk about something else?
Thanks
Isa
January 5, 2010 at 9:09 pm
Nice presentaion by LVS.
I could add that the biggest Thermolecetric plants made in Venezuela were built more than 30 years ago, by the mid 79´s and went online in 78-79: The Tacoa Plant 1700 MW (private investment by Electricidad de Caracas) and Planta Centro 2000 MW (Government investment). Even though Planta Centro had a bigger capacity, 5 units of 400 Mw each, the Government technicians never could manage to have it work at 100% capacity and I believe that Tacoa has always generated more electricty than Planta Centro. (Tacoa was renamed Josefina Camejo by this Government)
Today Planta Centro is generating maybe 400 mw, 25% of its capacity.
Venezuela generates 70% of its electricity with Hidroelectric dams, and the other 30% is mainly thermoelectric (fuel Oil, Gas) and somr Turbo gas units for peak loads plus smaller Diesel units.
You can get more info about Venezuelan Electric System (SEN Sistema Electrico Nacional) here (look fot the PDF files in Boletin Informativo Mensual
http://opsis.org.ve/#
January 5, 2010 at 9:25 pm
My friends tell me Planta Centro is at less than that, something like 250 MW. I still think the solution is a capitalist one. Ask each shopping center to lower its consumption in January by 10%, 5% in February, if they don’t , the excess will be cahrged at triple the usual rate. You can bet these guys will find a way to save 20% in five minutes. That is why economics is the science of the individual.
January 5, 2010 at 8:55 pm
There is no doubt you are correct Miguel.
I’m not going to pretend to know what goes on in Hugo’s mind, but seeing who he has targeted and forcing to withstand economic hardship it is difficult to assume he has anything there but the undermining of the capitalist structure.
He doesn’t like that people go to the shops and spend freely on what they want?
then punish them.
He doesn’t like that people print in newspapers or state on Tv his errors?
then punish them…
It’s all about control for Hugo… not the results.
If it were results that Hugo wanted, he would have built electrical generating capacity, instead of … well, you know, everything else he’s done…
This coal burning plant near where I live was built a few years ago, the cost was about $600 million american. (in this link, $ canadian is used)
The plant was built by Hitachi of Japan, and supplies enough electricity, 450 megawatts, for a (northern/cold) city of 350,000. It was built on time, on budget, with 0 lost injury days.
http://www.engineering.ualberta.ca/nav02.cfm?nav02=46651&nav01=18430
no, the coal soot does not go straight into the atmosphere, it’s a clean coal plant.
hmmm, how much money did those bankers from last weeks commentary have?
in multiples of $600 millions.. that would be how many coal generating plants?
Venezuela has enough coal for… 500 years of this? or is it 1000?
Is it really so much easier to control when you can eat in a mall in comfort?
Hugo’s not just wrong on this, he’s fucking insane.
January 5, 2010 at 8:11 pm
Yes, I believe in private property rights, you don’t.If If I own a restaurant it is my right to open it or not, you believe in Dicatorships. In any case That is not the subject of the post so you are off topic, something you dont seem to learn.
I am not having it both ways. There is a Constitution that allows me to do what I want with what is mine, a Mall is not a regulated service and as long as it is not, I can do what I want, BUT the Government can not do what it wants. That is why your cpments are idiotic, because you dont seem to get that difference, you want to the Government to micromanage your life, I dont. If I shut down my restaurant or Mall, someone may take (or not) advantage of it, bu it is MY decision.
And yes, you were saying Noticias 24 had the “new” and improved decision which is as idiotic as the original if the purpose was to save electricity. So you knwo what you can do with your tomatoes.
And you are still defending the stupid Government and your own ignorance when you say “You guys” I am who I am the rest, I cant be responsible for. You like being ruled by idiots, I don’t, whether they are pro-Chavez, Copeyanos, Adecos or whatever. You don’t mind having a mediocre country for mediocre people, I do, that is something you don’t seem to understand.
And I repeat, you are not welcome in my home (blog) because you only show up selectively to try to irk us and all you do is show what a jerk you really are.
January 5, 2010 at 7:51 pm
Octavio – Excuse me but I never wrote that I supported the goverment’s measures. Perhaps you should read what is written.
I am questioning your stance now about the malls and what you wrote on this very blog during the lockout. That’s all.
It was OK for the mall owners to close down the malls COMPLETELY in 2002 but not OK for the government to limit electricity consumption in the same malls now, for good reasons, which could have affected cinemas and restaurants for example.
You can’t have it both ways unless you really believe that you have the divine right to hypocrital double stanrdards on your blog.
The fact is that as soon as anyone questions the accepted stance of the opposition here he is either an idiot or a fanatic. Look in the mirror since you guys are NEVER going to change the political situation here if you are so inconsistent with knee jerk reactions to whatever Chavez says or what the government does.
That’s all and toma tu tomate!!
January 5, 2010 at 7:39 pm
This is how idiotic this whole thing is:
A stupid, ignorant Government unilaterally creates idiotic policy which will barely save electricity, but will kill jobs, limit freedom and slow down the economy. A decree is issued and some idiotic fanatics (see above) don’t say anything. Government does not consult those affected as is supposed to happen in a democracy, but those that believe in a Dictatorship (see above) think that is ok.
Government realizes how idiotic policy was, so they back track it to a point that the whole thing is simply useless. Stores will be closed two hours, so that lights will be out two hours, which saves very little. And the idiotic fanatics come out once again and support the stupidity of their idiotic Government.
Arturo: The only pathetic people are those that idolize deities without clothes and don’t even bother to read. And if you really think thsi is about having fun, you are truly pathetic.
January 5, 2010 at 7:06 pm
Antonio and LVS: excellent comments.
January 5, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Are you an idiot or just intelligence impaired?
January 5, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Sorry to intrude but if you read the latest news a lot of these measures have been revised especially at night – according to Noticias24. Chcek it out.
The irony of all this complaining by readers is so blatant that it is unreal. How many of these readers complained in December 2002 when mall owners locked out shop owners, closed cinemas and eating places in their attempt to overthrow the democratically elected government with the now failed and infamous bosses’ lockout? I did not see Ocatvio complaining then in the tone he is now. Just check his posts around that time to see if I am correct or not..
Think about your own hypocisy and by the way, you are getting completely sidetracked away from all the important issues with this discussion of not being able to have “fun” when you want. Honestly it is quite pathetic.
Ever thought of gpoing to the cinema in the Av. Baralt??
January 5, 2010 at 5:47 pm
now that they are allowing eating places and health locals to stay open in the same mallls that the retail stores have to close in, how is that fair to them? Also, if the mall has to stay open for the eating places, banks etc how much electricity will it save by just closing part of it? It still has to be open and lit for the fortunate buisnesses who qualify to stay open. go figure
January 5, 2010 at 5:16 pm
Antonio – Totally agree with you –
It is not the intention of this government to provide security, food or electricity – but to maintain control and power – in a way that has been masterfully crafted and carefully cultivated – and all the necessary technology used and even more historic errors made in others regimes learned.
In that way it has been quite a successful revolution and a well planned that at that – people worry about food, power, water, phones, etc….. and meanwhile the government slowly but surely hold tighter and tighter control on everything.
The rest is smoke and mirrors ……………..
January 5, 2010 at 4:58 pm
In many political regimes of this kind, it is important to generate shortages of goods and services for a more efficient control of the population. People at home doing nothing, or standing in long lines waiting to buy some food, are much easier to control than well fed individuals going about their business in shopping malls. Reducing the number of hours you can spend there must be beneficial in furthering the main objective of the regime (staying in power). Too much in the way of restrictions could cause riots, so the trick is to strike a good balance. The announced closing hours seem reasonable from this point of view. Nothing to do with technology (or lack of it).
January 5, 2010 at 4:03 pm
The problem can be at least partially addressed by savings.
This can be seen from the fact there were fewer outages over the holidays. In fact, the Acarigua area in Portuguesa had very few or even none, depending on the exact town during the last 2 weeks of the year due to the holidays and the reduced industrial power load. So saving electricity would make a difference.
I definitely think that Venezuelans are wasting a lot of electricity. I have witnessed the use of airconditioning with the doors or windows open many times. I always feel that many don’t even make the connection between their air conditioner and the current power problems or even their electricity bill.
A large part of the problem is that most people by now have so much contempt for the ablitiy of the government to get anything right, that they tend to blame everything on the government only and don’t see how they can make a difference in anything.
January 5, 2010 at 3:01 pm
It is a fair question – It is hard to tell you if the measures offer anything at all –
My best guess is that limiting the hours at the malls, although might help slightly, makes any real difference, same for shutting all the major industrial complexes in Guayana – yes if you turn off the lights you dont consume power but that does not solve the problem that there is not enough power to supply the demand. Even if the damn levels at Guri return to normal you still have problems.
Lets also remember that Caracas for example is not all supplied by Guri, Tacoa and some other thermal (i.e gas or diesel plants) supply most of the power to Caracas and when there is shortage they need to acquire power from Guri – if the plants that supply Caracas are in disrepair and you need more power from Guri when damn levels are low …..well everyone has a problem.
Shutting down industrial and commercial complexes also has a significant effect in the economy – and now that I think about it perversely if the economy tanks (even more) then maybe there is less consumption….but I digress.
I have no doubt that some savings could be achieved somehow – as we probably do waste significant amount of power. An interesting case would be Brazil a few years ago ( I think 2002 or 03 ) they had a low hydrology year and the government set a system of educating people to conserve energy and if a household did not achieve a saving they got a penalty in their electric bill. Not very populist but it was quite effective, I believe they managed to lower consumption around 15%.
At that time the Brazilian government set preferential financial plans for those who acquired new appliances ( more energy efficient A/Cs, refrigerators, etc. and completely the opposite that our government advocates) and an educational campaign about savings – turn the light off when you leave a room, turn the water heater off during the day, don’t leave the iron on if you are not using it, run the dryer of the dishwasher only when its full….it was surprisingly efficient and did not impose any change in lifestyles for anyone….
So yes the measures proposed probably do save some energy but they are assinine at best …as expected.
January 5, 2010 at 2:40 pm
This brings up the question of how the power grid is managed. With a modern computer system or with an older or manual system? Modern system do a lot of forecasting using complex models that work down to a below ths sub-station level. Regardless politics trumps engineering as usual.
January 5, 2010 at 1:27 pm
Is there any discussion of peak hour pricing? In some places in the US, home consumers are getting special meters/thermostats for their residences so that they can reduce consumption during peak hours. The deal is that they get the free ($100) special thermostats only if they sign into reducing peak power consumption.
January 5, 2010 at 12:47 pm
Thanks LVS, great summary.
Still I’m not clear, it’s shutting malls at night a reasonable measure or not?
is that a peak hour?
Can water be saved at night in El Guri to be used during the day?
January 5, 2010 at 10:24 am
Its not that simple – and as someone mentioned there is little reliable data to analyze (as an example the Panamanian interconnected system publishes on a website daily electric consumption pattern).
Hydro plants are usually base loads – meaning they cover the base demand (refrigerators, some a/c, water pumps, some manufacturing, elevators, etc are on all day) – they usually run 24 hours and although you can manage production a bit most of the time they are running – they are also the cheapest power in the system – and cost of operations usually dictates what power plants operate. Hydro and coal are cheapest followed by gas and finally oil –
As demands increases during peaks ( usually in the morning as everyone wakes up – goes to work – A/C and computers go on etc ) additional power is required so additional power generation is needed in the system –
In most systems as demand increases additional power plants are fired up and generate additional electricity – for that to happen the right power plants need to be in the system – not all power plants can be started right away some need a few hours to warm up and be able to be started – ie. plants like tacoma so there is planning involved every day –
Smaller diesel plants like those at the malls are called peakers or emergency ( they can be started right away and are used to cover peak hour demand or if something else in the system fails) they are generally not large and can cover something like a mall or a small deficiency.
They are also very expensive to run and power prices in most system are set by the most expensive plant running at that time.
So most systems are designed to have a cushion of 20% – so there is 20% more electric generation available than peak demand – so in case a unit needs to be taken down for maintenance or because of an unexpected issue there is sufficient power in the system to compensate for that particular loss.
If demand increases and no new generation capacity is added the cushion gets eroded – and blackouts start – as the system hits its peak demand there is not enough electricity generated to satisfy demand and to avoid total collapse parts of the system need to be shut down.
Some of the ideas mentioned here are very good as to save energy – electric water heaters are incredible power hogs, as are dryers and old refirgerators – poorly insulated houses that need too much A/C capacity – but at the crux of the problem is lack of planning to add generation.
A large power plants takes two years to build – when people mention 8 months we are talking about small units – usually diesel generation that can generate very small quantities of power – its using the bandaid system to cover the grand canyon –
All of our mineral industry is a large consumer of power – the alluminum smelters, the refinerys, etc consume large quantities of power all day long – and they have benefited from very cheap or basically free power for a long time – therefore having no incentive to build their own power plants as in the rest of the world. In addition population has grown and there are more flat screens and cable and cell phone and computers etc that need electricity ( not to mention power theft that in Caracas alone was around 20% of the power sold by the old EDC ) and not a single power plant has been added to the system in at least 15 years, it is not suistainable –
With planning it will take at least two years to return to normalcy –
January 5, 2010 at 8:29 am
From what I’ve heard, two of the five turbines at the Guri are out for maintenance. I’ve heard the third is ailing so perhaps they have tried to do nightly maintenance for the damaged one and extended shutdown hours. In the event that the Guri fails, the new law will also have forced many private enterprises to obtain their own plants, thus limiting a complete breakdown.
January 5, 2010 at 5:14 am
In the socialist mind, shutting down businesses for the greater good is a noble action as making business is bad. And chavez is an idiot, not famous for making well thought out decisions.
First thing I would have done is repossess those generators from Nicaragua.
January 5, 2010 at 12:38 am
So by generating less electricity during the night the dams can hold more water to produce extra during the day?
Is the problem related to peak capacity or to dam levels?
January 5, 2010 at 12:16 am
This is a populist government were talking about here. They have to do something with the least political damage. Ordering the power company to disconnect all the Lampa in the Ranchos stealing power would be a disaster. one thing is for sure, this will get worse before it gets better and will be the undoing of more than a few politicians.
January 4, 2010 at 11:19 pm
Step one: Decreasing consumption. It’s simple to decrease consumption, all you need are two words: RAISE PRICES.
Step two: Take proceeds from price increases and plow it into development of additional energy producing resources.
Sooner or later, the additional new resources create an over abundance and this will cause the prices to decrease.
A truly free market works exactly like this. A well-run government could accomplish the same, by raising taxes and investing the revenue properly. But that’s NEVER gonna happen in Venezuela – at least as long as the Robolution is in charge. That’s because with Chavez, a “well-run government” is an oxymoron.
January 4, 2010 at 10:52 pm
you’re mostly right but a little wrong. these restrictions aren’t about reducing peak load. with hydro, you actually can reduce flow through the dams and reduce energy output, so it is helpful to have savings at any time of day.
that said, no one has done any studies i’m aware of into what the actual energy use is per customer, or per Bs of trade, or per worker, or per square meter in a mall vs. a street retail establishment. i would bet you that the malls are more efficient, as street retailers often leave their doors open and chill the places to ridiculous extremes. malls are not mostly over-cooled, and probably have central cooling plants which are more efficient than a bunch of small air conditioners.
the biggest energy wastes in venezuela are probably residential air conditioners and residential water heaters, which tend to be poorly insulated and turned up too high and left on all day. water heater timers, which cost about 10 or 20 bolivars, if widely distributed, could probably save far more power — including peak power, since few people need residential hot water at 4 pm — than the mall restrictions.
residential refrigerators should be massively checked and cleaned in a project similar to the light bulb distribution 2 years ago. the new light bulb project is a waste of time and money; those savings have already been made.
offices shouldn’t be chilled below 20 degrees. large commercial structures should get free energy audits and/or should be rewarded for saving energy — pay them the same that Duro Felguera is getting paid to build new generation, $2,000 per kilowatt, and the savings will be legion.
but this would all be neoliberal. better to punish casinos and movie theaters.
January 4, 2010 at 10:34 pm
Miguel:
I understand that is a peak between 11:00 am and 3:00 pm, and also a lesser one between 6:00 pm and 8:00 pm aprox. This is why going back to the former time (-4:00 GMT vs. -4:30 GMT today) could save some consumption in peak hours, people would start electric appliances a little later.
A friend of mine works in a factory located in the Tuy Valley, and usually everyday they receive a call from Cadafe to shut down the office A/C and lights between 11:30 am and 3:00 PM to lower peak consumption. Is either that or they pull the plug by sectors from noon to 4:00 pm.
January 4, 2010 at 10:20 pm
I think the Gov thinks that the electrical system in Venezuela is like a gigantic battery where electricity not used because of the rationing is the same as electricity saved.
January 4, 2010 at 9:16 pm
The blackout will speed private enterprise going broke and shutting down. THAT is the object!