Archive for May 19th, 2011

Venezuelan Oil GDP has been negative for the last ten quarters

May 19, 2011

In the comments of the previous post there has been a lot of discussion about the data for first quarter GDP, which rose by 4.5%. Hey, it’s positive, but it is nothing to gloat about. GDP is measured in a very quirky way, it measures the growth in the 1Q11 (first quarter 2011) when compared to 1Q10 (first quarter 2010), thus it is not sequential. Thus, the 4.5% growth has to be compared with the 5.1% contraction one year ago, due largely to the electrical crisis.

Thus, compared to a year ago, the Venezuelan economy is still below two years ago, and below the last quarter of 2010, nothing to hold a press conference for like Giordani and Merentes did and all the money they spent printing gloating references to this non-achievement.

But the most worrisome part of the report is this graph from El Nacional, which shows how oil GDP has done for the last thirteen quarters. As you can see oil GDP has been negative for ten quarters now, a true cause for concern in the country where The Devils’ Excrement dominates the economy. And since Giordani loves to talk about “trends”, the “trend” in the graph above, compiled by El Nacional, shows that oil GDP topped near zero and seems to be heading back down.

In another funny twist, a UCV economist (Garcia Banchs) found some “funny” numbers in the GDP data and they have been altered three times since the GDP report three days ago.

Oh! The revolution!