A Wall Street strategist named Byron Wein, started a tradition a few years ago of making a list of “thinking out of the box” predictions for the New Year, which he called his list of surprises. This has become quite popular and by now I know of at least three such lists (One, Two and Three no yet out). The idea is to suggest events that go against the consensus and help you be prepared for it. The remarkable thing is how good these lists have turned out to be, with 50-60% of these unlikely events happening.
Ever since we learned about Chavez’ illness, I have been bothered by the question about his succession. Basically, none of the suggested names has ever satisfied me. They all have weak points from the point of view of Chavez, the military and the Cubans. Maduro may be loyal and have a good image, but he is no radical. Diosdado may be acceptable to many groups, but I don’t think he buys the Cuba angle, nor is his an real ideologue. Jaua is not liked, period.
So, in the spirit of thinking out of the box, I have identified someone who is not as well-known, is loyal, ideologically on the right side, former military, democratically elected Governor, acceptable to the Cubans and, more importantly, a man who has more influence on Chavez than many people understand.
His name?
Blanco La Cruz is a well educated, former military officer, founder of MVR, member of the Constituent Assembly, former Governor of Tachira, Ambassador to Cuba and more importantly, the man that crushed the Chavista bankers from Cuba, saving his brother in law’s position as Superintendent of Banks. (He is also the cousin of a high ranking General)
A powerful man indeed. Not very well-known, but Chavez has never wanted anyone to be well-known. Cabello may be well known, but he lost the Gubernatorial race to Capriles. Maduro may be popular among the powerful Chavistas, but is not a proven candidate. Rangel may be radical, loyal and a good strategist, but he has the charisma of a dead turtle.
But Ronald is buddy-buddy with Hugo, with the military, he believes in all this, trusted by the Cubans, has been a candidate.
Not well known?
Nothing that a few months as VP and a few billion Bolivars can’t fix.
So, I am going with Ronald Mac Blanco as my 2012 surprise.
It may not be obvious or probable, but it makes sense…
Would he be President Blanco or President La Cruz?
The Devil's Excrement 
December 31, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Happy New Miguel.
December 31, 2011 at 1:16 pm
That should be Happy New Year
December 31, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Oh, boy, are you drunk already!
December 31, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Talking about that, cheersrs everybody! Happy New Year! Much prosperity and love to everyone!
December 31, 2011 at 4:36 pm
No, just a little strung out after taking care of 20 guests for the last 10 days with another 7 to go.
I’ll recover after Jan. 7 when everyone goes home & Margarita returns to normal.
Everybody have a Happy New!!! 🙂
December 31, 2011 at 3:07 am
Ronald McDonaldfor VP? Does that make Chavez the Hamburgler? He’s certainly been stealing a lot of something to get so fat that quickly.
December 31, 2011 at 9:50 pm
Anastasius Mariconius for VP. Being a Greek-Venezuelan he is looking forward to standing behind Chavez “ready to serve.”(his words not mine..)
Seriously, I wish Chavez would suddenly resign.
Maybe Chavez will receive some sign “Time to pack up and head to Cuba
and pack his bags and leave town..
December 30, 2011 at 11:39 pm
When push comes to shove, Chavez will ditch his sham Democracy,
everything from day-one has been about staying in power
In the beginning he was not a socialist, but going the “Third way”, when he got reelection under his belt, he was a “Socialist”, and finally with indefinite reelection he takes off the mask and announces he’s a “Communist”.
Its two steps forward and one back.
Whats his agenda? bluntly to make Venezuelans slaves in their own land.
Readers will shake their heads and say he won’t prevail, but when you have thugs in power, read Saddam, Qaddafi, Assad, the only way they give-up power is at the point of a gun. unless Venezuelans are prepared to give their lives he won’t go, the days of free elections are long gone, and Venezuelans have themselves to blame for voting into power a Killer, Killer you say? yes over 200 killed in his 1991 Coup
December 31, 2011 at 10:05 pm
Interestingly enough, as many different ways of governing that Chavez claims to have been/is, I’ll bet you that all he really knows about any of them is the name, and not too much beyond that. I mean, he’s probably read the Cliff Notes version of “socialism”, “communism”, “democracy”, etc. Hell, probably even the Cliff Notes “Cliff Notes” of each of them. For those of you who don’t know what Cliff Notes are, they are summaries and analyses of works of literature, intended as study guides & aids; they’re great, but not always accurate.
December 30, 2011 at 8:58 pm
They can not bypass it, they have to change it, there is lil time…I think Hugo thinks he will survive, like Gloria Gaynor…he is just not that realistic.
December 30, 2011 at 7:05 pm
Miguel, IMHO Chávez does not give a damn who stays in power if he dies.
December 30, 2011 at 7:12 pm
Well, his most recent moves suggest he does.
December 30, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Not that I give a damn how chavistas feel-but, imagine chavistas looking
at 2012. Either Chavez will die, or Chavez may lose the election.
So, in dispersing his most loyal to positions of power throughout
Venezuela, Chavez is preparing to PERPETUATE CHAVISMO.
Do we agree. So, Opposition should think about trying to defeat
chavistas EVERYWHERE-not just Chavez on election day.
GWEH-I hope you grow some positive feelings (also I am trying
to do the same)
As to “conspiracy theory” –are the Iranians and Chavez playing a
strategy to “help” get Obama re-elected. Why? Because he is weak
and has done nothing and hardly uttered a word about Venezuela
(and not much against Iran..)
and beginning supporting Cuba, for example..
December 31, 2011 at 10:02 am
“The U.S. is MIA in Latin America”
by Alberto de la Cruz.
on Babalu Blog this morning.
“Radical populists in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia have run roughshod over democratic institutions and the best Washington can come up with is asking for the terms under which a U.S. ambassador would be allowed to return to their capitals. “
December 30, 2011 at 2:07 pm
“Chavistas buy themselves four more years.”
Actually they buy 6 more years.
December 30, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Obama will not challenge Venezuelan electoral results to the point of doing something about it. Chavistas buy themselves four more years. Cocaine and Iranians will continue unabated. Sorry but I don’t see things happening
December 30, 2011 at 1:48 pm
I like this. Whoever they choose, will win thanks to CNE and Smartmatic. If the election comes to fruition. I got another one for you: If Obama wins, the Chavistas win and current likelihood certain. It’s the US economy.
December 30, 2011 at 12:08 pm
BTW, though it did struck me as a suggestion “out of the box” a totally different thing is how solid would Chavismo without Chavez be with Blanco at the top. My gut feeling is that with him as with pretty much any other one being suggested, cracks would appear very quickly (todos empezarian a jalar pa’ su lado).
December 30, 2011 at 12:09 pm
That’s why I like him, he is the most cohesive one.
December 30, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Like him in the prediction sense.
December 30, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Got it. Thanks!
December 30, 2011 at 11:59 am
Miguel,
Someone recently told me that as a rule of thumb, when one of Chavez’s liutenants failed him in an election, that liutenant was relegated to oblivion by HC himself and thus his political career truncated from then on.
How true do you think this is, and if true, would Ronald Blanco be the exception if he were named successor?
December 30, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Diosdado is back and he lost too. I think Chavez is unpredictable and he is a t a difficult crossroads, he will do whatever is necessary for the revolution to survive. Chavez’ Ambassadors to Cuba have been Adan Chavez, Ali Rodriguez and Ronald, that is indeed a trusted position.
December 30, 2011 at 11:44 am
If you want to be sickened then have a look at this photo. Careful, not suitable for the weak of heart or easily impressed.
December 30, 2011 at 10:27 am
You may have just given him the kiss of death. America’ s cancer weapon has a new target.
December 30, 2011 at 5:37 pm
The funny thing is, the idea itself isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds. America isn’t “better” than everyone else. Power corrupts. The American government has a history of doing medical experiments on both its own poor (blacks) as well as foreigners. Including infecting them with terrible diseases to study the consequences.
As an American myself, I believe that the world would be better off with some people gone, and not by a military invasion, but by a single bullet. I know that sounds horrible, but it’s logical.
In the case of Venezuela, though, the problem isn’t “Chavez” – it’s the majority of the Venezuelan culture. Getting Chavez out of power doesn’t solve the problem, it merely changes it, and not necessarily for the better.
Who wants to do the hard work of educating the people???
December 30, 2011 at 9:39 am
Interesting suggestion Miguel.
I am not sure about the family connection. Chávez is himself, he trusts nobody, not even his family, IMHO.
In 2007 when he proposed the “Reforma” there were a lot of changes being proposed and yet that one was not there, if I remember correctly. If he had been so interested in founding a dinasty, Castro style, he would have proposed to change the VicePresident restriction. He did not.
December 30, 2011 at 11:04 am
Yes true, but that was before the big “C” when he
thought he was immortal.
Now he has to make sure the skeletons stay in the closet,
and his family’s ill gotten wealth is not taken away by some
international court, or by a new none Chavez government
December 29, 2011 at 11:49 pm
Nahhh Miguel… It is your rational mind betting against Castro and Chavez reasoning.. The veep will carry a Chavez name and Chavez blood .. Maybe a brother , a daughter, but no outsiders at all. Take a look at Cuba and N Korea , that is it… A brother and a son…
Maybe this will disappoint the Godgiven and pals and some will side with the oppos. BTW, the oppo leaders look like fair play amateurs in a professional hardball game
December 30, 2011 at 12:07 am
Can’t, Constitution says no family, not even affinity, would be hard to change.
December 30, 2011 at 5:53 am
Venezuela is Chávez’s family. Chávez is Venezuela. If Venezuela is Chávez, it cannot be that nobody can follow up Chávez because of that clause. Thus, Adan Chávez would do.
There is nothing our harlot-judges won’t do for the “rhevolushion”.
December 30, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Miguel,
I tend to agree with Kepler on this. He might be the power behind the throne, but they know there is no Chavismo without a Chavez. The successor must be a Chavez. As for the Constitution, they have already ignored it, twisted it, and abrogated it. I just don’t imagine them allowing that to stop them from doing what they want.
December 30, 2011 at 10:39 pm
The problem for Chavismo is that Adan has no charisma and can’t climb high enough in the polls where even his cheating numbers could pass, he would at best get 15%, that’s the reason for his rant about using force to keep power, he was alluding to the fact that under the present one man one vote he can’t get credible numbers in the polls that would allow ballot stuffing to put him over the top, he needs a new constitution, a Cuban style communal one, one that Chavez by coincidence has been pushing himself
December 31, 2011 at 4:38 am
If it’s not Hugo’s elder brother, then it’s Hugo’s infanta.
He has been grooming her for a while. She went with him to Russia and Belarus and she went with him to Argentina and other places.
Or was that just tourism?
In any case: I don’t believe Hugo is deadly sick. If the caudillo does die before the end of April I will invite Miguel for a meal and the best Belgian beer in Brussels to discuss what’s next.
December 29, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Your prediction is interesting,but you must realize that Chavez is ruing a family business and no none Chavez will sit on the throne.
My prediction is after wining the election next October, by hook or crook, most assuredly by crook, he will call for a new constitution to be more subservient, before being sworn in in January 2013.
Hence the reason for the early election (October 2012, the CNE needs a least three months) He can’t swear in and then have a new constitution that would mean new presidential elections.
One item in the new constitution will be that Chavez’s brother Adan can hold the second slot (not permitted under the present one) and a second will be a Cuban type constitution, (no direct vote for the president). if Chavez kick’s the bucket that will ensure Adan having no worries about wining a free election.
December 29, 2011 at 9:52 pm
You nailed it Albie, old boy!! Your crystal ball is working perfect.
It is easy to conclude this really-because it “fits the pattern”
that Chavez is copying.
Furthermore, Chavez and his honchos believe that if they have to
face resistance from losing -that resistance will fold against the
power of the military,etc..quickly. Going to be practically
impossible to break free, unless outside helps steps in immediately
after Chavez loses the election.
December 30, 2011 at 5:32 pm
CC, you’re almost right. Breaking free is EASY, if you’re wiling to purchase your freedom. I learned these lyrics some 40 years, they’re still true: “Freedom isn’t free, you have to pay the price, you have to sacrifice, for your liberty.”
When enough Venezuelans are willing to pay the price, then the country will be free. The actual logistics are easy enough. Imagine 50,000 people sitting around the presidential palace. (Or some other vital civic center.)
Of course, it’s too late for any of this to end nicely. Too many ‘reds’ running around with guns, particularly the less well-educated who have no qualms about taking a life in addition to the $$ they jack from you.
Someone else points out correctly that VE is following the Cuba/No.Korea model and therefore, the next dictator will be family. Miguel counters that it can’t happen, it’s against the constitution, etc…
I love you Miguel, but how can you think that the constitution would prevent Chavez from doing whatever he wants?
Miguel, of Blanco La Cruz you stated that “he believes in all this”. Can you please clarify for those of us who are far removed? Do you mean that he actually and truly believes that Communism is the right formula for creating a well-off society? Or that totalitarianism is better than democracy? Or all of it?
I can’t believe that. If true, then it has to be their own self-interest blinding them. In what way – a single example – are Venezuelans better off today than in ’98?
December 30, 2011 at 6:37 pm
Yes, he believes in a socialism where the Government controls all and where everyone is averaged down to the same level and told what to do. And yes, he beleves in totalitarism, admires Castro and Cuba despite the total failure and they are all former military that love to play soldier.
December 31, 2011 at 1:58 am
It can’t be ignorance, so what is it, stupidity?
December 29, 2011 at 8:22 pm
It sounds like you just found your next dictator.