And now the most important question left is: Will Falcón ask to be the candidate fr the opposition in a future Presidential race?
If I were him, I would think long term and pass, I don’t believe he can build a successful national campaign in the short time that is likely to be available. But ambition and the fact he has that mysterious piece of DNA that drives politicians to desire power, may short circuit such a rational decision. But I hear that he is already talking about it.
The difficulty is that he can not come out today and say he wants to be the candidate. He has to wait until the sequence of events develops on its own, before he can do anything about it publicly. Otherwise, it would not only be in terrible taste, but it may alienate the same electorate that he wants to attract from the Chavismo-light end of things.
The second question is what will Capriles do if Falcón wants it. I think he should hand over the baton and not even fight it. He blew it and he can’t blow it again. If he loses against Maduro, he is done as a Presidential possible (He may be done already anyway) The time to think long term and high risk was back in October and he failed to see it.
So now, the opposition faces the reality of really having two “Chavista” candidates running for President. Oh wait! That happened once already. In fact, the guy who was the opposition candidate then, happened to win last night for PSUV in Zulia State.
Oh well!
The Devil's Excrement 
December 20, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Well I agree with part of that which you say. Neverthless Bs 2500 plus food vouchers is negligible when compared to Dad’s capital or importing company or amig(a) at the bank.
Thereagain the latter group were yesterday’s poor from the parroquia del Centro and they are the worst of the lot. The nouveau riche turning the screws on their own and the pattern will repeat ad infinitum.
Cyclical you might say.
December 21, 2012 at 1:09 am
When it comes to how useful or harmful they may be, it turns out that the one who thinks he works/is worth more because of his importing company/dad’s money and so on is often more pernicious to the country’s general well-being.
And it’s not about “new rich”. Old rich can stink as much. Rich or poor do not have to stink.
December 19, 2012 at 5:40 pm
This is really very telling: I keep hearing from non-Venezuelans time after time the opposition should focus on educating the people. I keep hearing from the opposition “there is no time for that” or “there is no way they can learn”.
And then I read people like Sanz “Si la oposición no logra ser hegemónica en las grandes ciudades (60%+ de la votación) y ganar buena parte de las ciudades medianas, siempre sacaremos el 45% con el que estamos. Lamentablemente, en Venezuela pesa demasiado el “monte y culebra” y no Caracas (que por cierto, no terminamos de consolidar como nuestra).”
With that kind of mentality we won’t ever win. If you want voters to like you, you firstly need to show you like them.
Besides: what does he think Caracas is? Not Monte y culebra? It is very much as much, even if there is cement galore and lots of presents bought with the Devil’s Excrement. A lot of people from the opposition keep having a feudal mentality…and you don’t win over other feudal lords like that, specially as they have the money and the weapons.
December 20, 2012 at 10:39 am
Educating the poor on economic matters ? Yep, that’ll do it, problem solved.
Or what about the legions of arrogant Venezuelans learning what it’s like to live on Bs2,500, plus food vouchers, per month.
December 20, 2012 at 11:47 am
Not just the poor. I don’t think the poor are a little bit more ignorant on this than Venezuela’s “rich” and elite…they often just don’t have the right connections and starting capital.
Pedro,
There have been very decent, hard-working people through all social classes, but also a lot of people who prefer to live off others and the proportion on the richer classes is not a tiny bit smaller than in the poor classes.
Theirs are not called vouchers but dad’s capital or importing company or amigo at bank X or Y, etc.
I don’t claim that will solve “the” problem. But at least you will start
even facing the problem. Right now the opposition is just dancing to call for rain.
December 19, 2012 at 7:30 am
Yo no creo que Falcón tenga más chace que Capriles en elecciones nacionales contra Maduro. La tenía mucho más fácil que Capriles, fue contra Reyes Reyes, gobernador de Lara por dos períodos consecutivos y, en mi opinión, nada exitoso. Eso sí, no me extrañaría que lo considerara…
December 19, 2012 at 4:21 am
I updated the file: https://www.box.com/s/24ndg1v8c21sn2134yvw
I included a chart with a comparison between the presidential and regional elections for all states.
– Liborio Guarulla was the best opposition candidate obtaining 36.5% of the electorate and pulling off the amazing feat of getting more votes than Capriles did in Amazonas during the presidential election.
– After Guarulla the best opposition candidates were Capriles & Falcon tied at 29.3% of their electorate.
– It’s also clear that Reyes was a much worse candidate than Jaua. Reyes lost 40% of the presidential votes compared to 30% by Jaua. Falcon lost 25% & Capriles 24%.
– Pablo Perez was the third best candidate with 29% of the electorate and losing only 18% of the votes obtained during the presidentials. Unfortunately even though Arias lost 22% of presidential votes, the opposition in Zulia had underperformed during the presidentials, obtaining only 36.4% of the electorate compared to 39.5% of Miranda
– The best chavista candidate was Lizeta Hernandez of Delta Amacuro with 37% of the electorate
– Rangel Silva of Trujillo was the second best chavista candidate with 36%
– Francisco Rangel of Bolivar was the worst chavista candidate with 18%
December 19, 2012 at 2:44 am
Deananash,
I have been discussing with several Venezuelans about this “educating Venezeuelans” on very basic things about the economy, about pluralism, about debates, about how we stand compared to really developing or developed countries, about establishing real networks in the secondary cities, etc, and so on. I have been telling that since at least 2007. They
keep telling me we can’t now because we have to focus on what’s next, the next election, the next referendum…
December 18, 2012 at 10:23 pm
I can’t believe all of you wonderful people are missing the big picture. Venezuelans are not yet ready to turn the page on Chavismo – even without Chavez.
Somebody has to do the VERY HARD (nearly impossible and definitely THANKLESS) job of reaching out and EDUCATING the average (read poor) Venezuelan.
Until that happens, or oil prices collapse, Chavismo will survive. An election just two months ago confirms this. As does the election this past week.
December 18, 2012 at 9:03 pm
Falcon is an ex-military, ex-chavista. That is EXACTLY what we don’t want and don’t need. We want less military in the goverment, we have had enough of it for 14 years.
December 18, 2012 at 10:35 pm
I am not talking about what we want, I am talking about what may happen. If push comes to shove, I dont like Capriles either.
December 19, 2012 at 9:01 am
Agree that Capriles blew it. Four point spread in Miranda and a hostile council. The pad is around six percent. Miguel keeps repeating it, anything below and they’re toast. WTF was Capriles thinking when he decided to run.
December 18, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Cabello no descarta que posterguen la fecha de asunción de Chávez:
http://www.telam.com.ar/notas/201212/1745-cabello-no-descarta-que-posterguen-la-fecha-de-asuncion-de-chavez.html
December 18, 2012 at 8:20 pm
So they are seriously considering breaking the law. Not surprised.
December 19, 2012 at 10:39 am
I was thinking about this, while it could be what Cabello thinks, it could be a “trapo rojo”, remember this guy is a milico and not a honest one. I maintain that they would try to take the oppo by surprise limiting the campaign to 30 days. Imagine trying to do a campaign with Chávez dying or recently died, good luck with that!
December 18, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Chávez is “stable” after suffering a pulmonary infection…
December 18, 2012 at 6:59 pm
The question is if Falcons capture of chavist-lights would be larger than his loss in opposition abstention. I think it wouldn’t. Chavistas in the rest of Venezuela would choose Maduro over Falcon.
December 18, 2012 at 4:51 pm
I think Falcón has a chance. Let people from outside Caracas, Maracaibo and Valencia tell us.
December 18, 2012 at 3:20 pm
I dont necessarily believe Falcon is better, I just think he has a right now and Capriles took an unnecessary risk and the result shows it. Read point 1) in this article by Boris Muñoz:
http://prodavinci.com/2012/12/17/actualidad/los-trabajos-de-henrique-capriles-randonski-por-boris-munoz/
December 18, 2012 at 3:23 pm
I know, that was in my opinion.
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Like some of you say Miguel is stubborn some of you might be Capriles obsessed then. The guy isn’t particularly shining, but I understand you clinging at that little hope.
I believe Falcón is better choice too.
December 18, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Not only in Miranda but in Lara too! How come they won and lost the Legislature’s control????? http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/elecciones-2012/121218/capriles-y-falcon-sin-control-de-los-consejos-legislativos.
Los rojos gained control of the legislative councils in 22 estates!
We must accept the fact that Venezuela, el “soberano”, is rojo rojito. Period. Unless the opp finds a way to persuade the people los rojos have done a huge mess, it will not win and will keep losing the seldom spots it has.
December 18, 2012 at 10:23 am
The worse part is the PSUV won the Legislative Council in Miranda. 8 red deputies, compared to 7 to be the oppo. Yes, Carpiles won but now it’ll be very difficult for hiim to run the state as he did before…. We’re SO screwd…
December 17, 2012 at 9:28 pm
And you cannot compare apple with pears. You cannot compare Lara with Miranda and presidential elections over a regional election. Venezuelans love Presidential campaigns, and nobody gets excited by regional elections.
It is like saying that since A>B and C>D then A>D, but without comparing B and C. As Amieres said above, it may be or may not be right.
December 18, 2012 at 11:28 am
It is not being stubborn. Jaua is a TERRIBLE candidate, fairly unknown too, terrible speaker. And Capriles only beat him by 4%. It would have been much worse if he had lost, it would have been a true disaster. Between 15% in Lara and 4% in Miranda, Falcon can claim he had a more significant victory. Again, the problem is that before Capriles was the unquestionable leader of the opposition, today he is not.
December 18, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Now it’s 8% Lara and 4% Miranda
December 18, 2012 at 2:40 pm
That is still 100% and this is even worse:
http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/12/18/asi-quedo-el-mapa-municipal-tras-las-elecciones-del-16d-comparacion/
December 18, 2012 at 5:39 pm
A fairer comparison is absolute “population pull” (my term) which compares % of the total electorate that voted for a candidate. Both Capriles and Falcon had 29.3% of the electorate vote for them. Meanwhile Reyes had 25% of the electorate vote for him while Jaua had 27%. Reyes was a much weaker candidate than Jaua.
Check out comparison and look at the “Population pull” for all the other states:
https://www.box.com/s/24ndg1v8c21sn2134yvw
Just for reference Capriles’ pull on Oct 7th was 35% and Chavez’ 43.4%
December 18, 2012 at 3:54 pm
I agree with Bruni. No one else other than Capriles could have run and won for the opposition in Miranda. And I also agree that comparing a feeble 4% win in a regional election cannot be extrapolated to a presidential one. You’ve said it yourself many times: people vote for Chavez (or so they have so far). Would they vote for Maduro as they have for Chavez? I don’t think so. And so I don’t think Capriles is done, and at the same time I think winning Miranda right now was extremely important.
December 18, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Sorry, Ocariz won the primary, he should have run, even if he was going to lose, while Capriles became the leader of the opposition. But I am not sure Ocariz would have lost, look which district gave Capriles his win. Until we start thinking long term and using and respecting democratic principles, we will not get anywhere.
December 18, 2012 at 4:57 pm
In a poll by Datanalisis in September Ocariz led Jaua by 25%…
December 17, 2012 at 5:22 pm
You take as a fact that Capriles “blew it and he can’t blow it again.” This is highly debatable. He risked everything by running in Miranda, instead of reserving himself for a new presidential run, and won, against all the government’s might. And he certainly didn’t “blow it” in the presidential campaign.
December 17, 2012 at 6:02 pm
He blew it running for Miranda, not in the Presidential campaign. Had he stayed campaigning for all the candidates and becoming the leader of the opposition, he would be the unquestionable candidate of the opposition should the need arise for a campaign. Now, he cant say that. For one, Falcon won by 15%, he only managed 4% against a bad candidate, reducing his margin of victory against Diosdado. Two, Maduro is a much better candidate than Jaua. If Capriles runs against Maduro and loses, his Presidential aspirations are done for. He is now a weakened candidate, he was not that on October 8th.
Leaders are those that set agendas. Capriles can not set the agenda now. He has to hope Falcón does not want to be the candidate.
December 17, 2012 at 6:45 pm
“He blew it running for Miranda”
You could be right but you could be wrong, it’s too early to tell, it all depends on how popular perception develops.
Personally, I don’t think the perception is going to be that he blew it by running for Miranda. Instead by winning Miranda he may very well be perceived as the only real opposition candidate that was able to defeat chavismo. People may think if he had not run the sweep would have been complete with only former Chavez’ appointees Falcon and Guarulla barely saving the honor of the opposition.
BTW Falcon won with 10% and Capriles with 5%.
Certainly Falcon proved to be more popular in Lara over Reyes Reyes a former governor with bad reputation, than Capriles in Miranda against Jaua unknown as governor and former vicepresident of Chavez.
How does that translate in national terms? who knows?
December 17, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Boy Miguel you are so stubborn when you have a made idea even if the results show you otherwise!
You keep saying that Capriles blew it running for Miranda. It is the other way around. Just imagine the opposition losing Miranda while Capriles was acting as a cheerleader, as you suggest. THEN Capriles would have fallen into oblivion and the Chavistas had had a “perfect victory”.
Remember, the key of this election was to win Miranda, Capriles prevented the win and he did it by taking a calculated risk. Thus he is now de-facto the leader of the opposition.
December 18, 2012 at 10:18 am
I agree. Miguel have to cool down a little; read about what happened and weight the great inconstitucional support the goverment gave to PSUV candidates. Please, read about de General in command at Tachira and the goverment official support inaugurating all kind of works with Vielma Mora, a script that happened al over the States.
December 18, 2012 at 11:22 am
And do you think it will be any different in a new Presidential race? 4% in Miranda to me says Capriles has no chance against Maduro nationally. Does Falcon have more chance? I have no idea, but if he wants he can ask for it.
December 18, 2012 at 3:10 pm
I agree with Miguel. Just out of old school principles. I’m not even considering “strategies” or whatever you might find reassuring as the reasons behind disrespecting the popular will that came from the opposition primaries. To me, Capriles was a desperate guy that did not understand his role and decided to grab the next mango bajito (Miranda) once he lost the presidentials. That goes against what the opposition is supposedly preaching against.
Anyway, at least the guy didn’t lose to Jaua, that would have been hilarious.
December 19, 2012 at 9:03 am
“Leaders are those that set agendas”
Couldn’t agree with you more
December 17, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Thank you from saving me to write a very similar post. 🙂
December 17, 2012 at 2:37 pm
I don’t see Falcon running now. He will probably wait for 2018.
December 17, 2012 at 1:49 pm
I do not trust “ex?” chavistas… look at Arias Cardenas.
I mean, cant we find one guy who has never been a chavista or adeco or copeyano to run against a lousy chavista like Maduro?
Anyways, I think that everybody is counting on Chavez dying soon. I am not so sure, yes, he has not surfaced, but since we are in the dark regarding his health, I would expect the worst case scenary, which is 2 more years of chiabe… new constitution, comunas, et al. No elections at all. I f that is the case, adios Venezuela, nos vemos en unos 10 años…
December 17, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Maybe it is all a masquerade, but as Maduro was asked, what said el Comandante about the victory today (minutes ago), Maduro said he has not been informed yet, they respect the medical treatment conditions…
I think they will try to get elections in short time, trying to get the opp. per surprise. Maybe an announce before jan. 10th.
December 18, 2012 at 3:46 pm
“…cant we find one guy who has never been a chavista or adeco or copeyano to run against a lousy chavista like Maduro?”
“We” did. That was Capriles, and he got beaten by a sick Chavez.
December 19, 2012 at 10:59 am
Then Capriles is the guy against Maduro.
December 19, 2012 at 4:46 pm
@megaescualido yea it was easy for chavez when He created mision cesta ticket, mision panal, mision esto. mision lo otro… when low class people are currently making the same amount of money as someone that graduates from college……. idk man Chavez has been and will continue to buy poor souls.
December 17, 2012 at 1:20 pm
personal preferences aside, Falcon seems to have be better at grabbing the chavista votes than HCR does…..