Some Thoughts On The Results Of Venezuela’s Regional Elections

December 16, 2012

We still don’t know the official abstention number (40%+) and the total number of votes for each side. The latter remains a very important number going forward.

Capriles’ number is ok, but not great, should make him the candidate against Maduro. If abstention is as high as has been said (clearly 40%-plus), Chavismo would like the Capriles-Maduro face off to be sooner, rather than later, as I have been predicting. Time works against Chavismo. Seems like Maduro would win an election that takes place soon.

Merida and Tachira are hard to understand. Chavez lost in both and now the PSUV candidates manage to score a win. Does this mean Vielma Mora is the most viable Chavista candidate for the ¨Chavismo sin Chavez¨ era? Jaua has never won an election, Arias lost one, Maduro has never run for anything but Head of the subway union and Diosdado lost to Capriles once. Vielam Mora, on the other hand, ran almsot on his own and won. Man to watch out!

Pablo Perez was terrible. He did not deliver on October 7th. , he did not deliver today. Maybe maracuchos should stop saying that the country does not accept maracuchos. Zulia seems to have problems with them! The Salas in Carabobo should learn that you can’t expect to stay so long in power. People do get tired.

To me, abstention is a puzzle. It is fine to argue that Chavez is the only one that get the vote out. But to have 30% of the electorate decide not to vote less than three months after Chavez’ victory in October is a complex mystery to me. Whatever happened to the sympathy vote? What turned the voters off in 75 days? We are talking about the fact that in this election, only about the same number of people that voted for Chavez in October went out to vote. Is this reasonable? I don’t think so, because Chavismo did not do much better than in October, so you can’t say the oppo vote was weak. A lot of Chavistas stayed home. Why?

Maybe Capriles should say Falcon will be his Vice-President. But again, let Chavistas deal with the economic adjustment. They created the distortions, let them deal with it. A maduro win, may not be so bad for the future after all.

Any ¨people¨ that elect Rodriguez Chacin as their Governor, deserve worse.And with Rangel Silva winning, we now have two people blacklisted by the US Government for their involvement in drug trafficking.

It was bad for the opposition to only win three Governorships. But Chavismo can’t feel good about the abstention level. From the numbers available, abstention was more than 40%. Much more than in 2008. The fact this happens so soon after the most successful election in terms of abstention for Chavismo and in the midst of Chavez’ recurrence, raises a lot of questions.

Bolivar is still up for grabs. Did not expect that, given the abstention levels in such a Chavista State. Andres Velasquez will put up a fight. He deserves  a chance. The Bolivar union workers never had a better friend and activist than Velasquez, but they have never given him the power. Had Velasquez won in 1994, Venezuela’s history would have been much different and for the better.

Finally, the Head of the Electoral Board did a terrible job reading the results. She read the numbers wrong, did not give candidate totals and when she gave Bolivar’s results she said twice the were not irreversible, but then gave the wrong numbers. She tries to grab the attention and then screws up!

Now the guessing game begins. Another election in two months? three months? Four months?

My guess is think soon, rather than later. How does February 3nd. sound to you? The 10th. is Carnival…Just wondering…

20 Responses to “Some Thoughts On The Results Of Venezuela’s Regional Elections”

  1. En Táchira mucha gente dejó de votar porque no querían hacerlo a favor de Pérez Vivas. Su gestión no era bien apreciada por la mayoría. En Carabobo se apreciaba un desgaste equivalente de los Salas. Sigo sin entender lo de Bolívar pues es un estado donde la gestión de las empresas básicas ha sido un desastre. Nueva Esparta es similar al Táchira. Mala gestión del gobernador impulsó la abstención de oposición Saludos

    Enviado desde mi iPhone

    El 16/12/2012, a las 11:06 p.m., The Devil’s Excrement escribió:

    > >

  2. […] of yesterday evening, “We still don’t know the official abstention number (40%+) and the total number of votes for each s….” t was bad for the opposition to only win three Governorships. But Chavismo can’t feel […]

  3. […] of yesterday evening, “We still don’t know the official abstention number (40%+) and the total number of votes for each s….” t was bad for the opposition to only win three Governorships. But Chavismo can’t feel […]

  4. Táchira had some extraordinary situation going on:

    + There are 2 opposition candidates. That makes people say «if they can’t even get their shit together how it will come when it comes to us?», so bunch of soft-oppo didn’t got out to vote. Just the hardcore did it. That explains the barely thousands votes the other opposition candidate got.

    + Lots of people came from other sides of Venezuela and the world just to cast their vote on October 7th. Not the same yesterday.

    + Pérez Vivas has been marked by a hugely corrupted teamwork and his communication skills letting the people know what he thinks and acts about that were obscure. He did not talked in any moment against corruption from his own side, and that’s what more bothers people. A regular thing said in Táchira: “If they didn’t got money from the national government how comes all the money they did steal?” And it was loads of money. Bunch of people is on jail right now for it and that’s the same people is mostly surround him right now, yet.

    + Vielma Mora didn’t made it so well tough. He got 247k votes instead of the 274k votes that got Chávez on October. That means no one in the opposition voted for him and less chavistas than before went to vote for the PSUV this time.

    One thing I heard to a friend and several secunded him: «If we are going to be governed by corrupts, then at least made them be chavistas so we in the opposition can criticize them without being hipocrites»

    So Vielma Mora, as I thought when I became the PSUV candidate, has nothing to do for winning, just being there and being not to so bad in front of his competition, full of corruption history and wrong-doing.

    It seems people in Táchira has ethics when it comes to cast their votes.

  5. Kepler Says:

    Look at this:
    Yes, there was gerrymandering, but we really didn’t try.
    On one side there is the Salas-Feo clan, people who are not at their ease outside Northern Valencia. On the other side we have Italian Venezuelan entrepreneurs who have a strong tendency towards nepotism (as well).
    Then we have guys with no rhetoric skills, no vision, no ideas, like the guys they sent to Los Guayos.
    And last but not least, they all lack state resources they can misuse.

    What do you expect?
    I wish we had people like Carlos Ocariz in Carabobo.

  6. amieres Says:

    I haven’t reviewed in detail the numbers so I’m speculating, but to me this resembles the 2004 gubernatorial elections. After much hope put on the RR and the big disappointment due the surprisingly decisive result, opposition abstained and chavismo won in an almost complete sweep. That time abstention was 54% with high chavista abstention as well.

    This time around a high opposition abstention, again due to big disappointment, foreshadowed an even worse sweep than in 2004 with the introduction of the revamped PSUV machinery. Even if the results were closer, the sweep was as bad as in 2004 with Miranda being the saving grace for the opposition. But the chavista machinery didn’t seem as effective as in October, at least not in Miranda. Why? Lack of funds?, interest? or support from the people?

    In any case, except for Miranda, the chavista strategy worked like a charm: early presidential elections in October due to Chavez’s cancer and a sweep in gubernatorial elections in December due to opposition disappointment & lack of steam (resources).

    With newly acquired luster in a victory under tough circumstances Capriles remains the possible spoiler for the last part of the chavista strategy: the presidential elections to replace Chavez.

  7. LD Says:

    “A lot of Chavistas stayed home. Why?”
    Maybe they are not that chavistas after all? Maybe people is fed up with the PSUV-pressure to vote? In Barinas more than 50% abstention!
    Jaua with all the propaganda failed too. Maduro’s face was priceless, like, oh boy, how I am going to win…

  8. deananash Says:

    The problem is, Venezuela is too far gone. Only a radical change in the culture can save the country and that isn’t going to happen.

    Chavizmo didn’t create the mess, it merely replaced a less worse version. I pity the minority percentage of decent Venezuelans. They will die long before Venezuela sees the light of day.

  9. TV Says:

    I’m wondering one thing, about this:

    What was the source of those numbers and how off the official numbers are?

    I’m not trying to criticize you, but with far less eyes on this election, fraud is an issue.
    Yes, I know that pushes participation down, but participation was low as it was, there is nothing between now and legislative elections and simply ignoring it isn’t going to make it go away either.

  10. Alek Boyd Says:

    “Capriles’ number is ok, but not great, should make him the candidate against Maduro.”

    Capriles’ what? OK? You have got to be taking the piss.

    • A. Shaw Says:

      Capriles’ number is good, not just OK. But for the landslide of the revo elswhere his number would be even better. The revo had a KO planned for Capriles. But here he is with an unaminous decision and with a stronger grip on the oppo presidential nomination. The oppo and the revo are stuck with Capriles.

      Why didn’t the revo get Capriles like it was supposed to do?

      Capriles is tough and crafty at campaigning. He fought through Doc’s GOTV operations.

      A hypo.

      The working class no-shows in Miranda may have been higher than the proletarian abstension rate elsewhere. Conversely, the absent affluent voters there may have been lower than the bourgeois abstension elsewhere. If so, why? What’s with Miranda? Doc, the big revo boss, better take a closer look at Miranda.

      With Capriles still out there waiting in the woods and panting like wolfman or a vampire, the revo may have to fly The Man home and administer oath as he lies in his hospital bed. Who wants a hasty race after Jan.10? Why not let the new governors take their seats and get comfortable? Yes, Mo was there yesterday, but it’s petering out.

  11. m_astera Says:

    The people are very tired of politicians and politics. They know it’s just a criminal racket and are sick of it, not willing to get out of bed just to vote for another criminal asshole on Sunday. The attitude towards the military is even worse. What would happen if we just ignored them?

    • TV Says:

      This was tried in 2004, wasn’t it? What happened was the Chavista state. Do you think trying it again will yield significantly better results?

  12. ErneX Says:

    Vielma Mora is respected even by part of the opposition due to his work heading the SENIAT. I know you this I’m just posting it for non venezuelan readers.

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