Stage Set For First Constitutional Clash in Venezuela in 2016

December 31, 2015

indexAs predicted in my next to last post Constitutional clash is set for the swearing in ceremony of the new National Assembly, as the newly and illegally named Supreme Court Justices of the Electoral Hall admitted a seventh request to have the effects of the December 6th. election suspended.

Up to today, we had known that there were six such requests. They had been introduced on December 28th. against certain Deputies elected on Dec. 6th. But on the 29th. an additional request was introduced to suspend the effects of the whole election in Amazonas State, which implies that the Court is saying that the Electoral processes in which three opposition Deputies and one Chavismo Deputy were elected are temporarily suspended.

The whole process was clearly set up by Chavismo to attempt to negate the 2/3 majority by the opposition on the new Parliament. But the whole process in itself stinks:

-One of the “Justices” considering the cases voted for herself as a Deputy.

-The lawyer that introduced the case is a public employee, which is illegal.

-The members of the Electoral Hall were on vacation and suddenly decided to end it.

-The opposition had recused all of the members of the Electoral Hall, which implied they had to resolve that, before the cases could be considered.

What is most interesting is that the opposition’s interpretation is that the decision by the Electoral Hall is not applicable, because the election is over, the candidates had been proclaimed and the request can no longer be executed. According to this interpretation, the Deputies had been proclaimed and thus the Electoral Hall can no longer suspend the process and at this point only the National Assembly itself (Art. 187 of the Constitution) can “qualify its members and know about their resignation…”

Thus, the MUD argues the Court has no Jurisdiction on this.

In fact, the article linked above, the best article on the subject, also notes that in the absence of these four Deputies, the opposition would still retain the 2/3 majority, because it would be counted on the basis of existing Deputies, not possible Deputies.

But perhaps the weirdest thing about the case, is that none of the races involved in Amazonas are close. The closest is that of Deputy Nirma Guarulla elected by 2,260 votes out of 63 thousand and some votes, a difference that seems very difficult to overturn.

diputadas

The rest are almost impossible, as the Deputies elected by list split the votes in half and both got elected, one for the opposition and one for Chavismo. (They got 63 thousand of roughly 64,000 votes between the two of them)

The final election affected is that of the indigenous representative for the south, which was a runaway victory for the opposition candidate:

indigena

which won by about the number of votes that the second place candidate obtained.

Thus, it is unclear at this time what Chavismo aims to do with these results. A place like Aragua had much smaller differences than these, but these cases were rejected by the Court.

In any case, a clash of Constitutional powers is set to take place on Jan. 5th. as the new Assembly will admit all of those elected.

What will the Court and Chavismo do?

And once the Assembly starts working, its next step may be to increase he number of Justices and/or question the validity of those recently elected.

Meanwhile Maduro announced his new “economic” measures, which were so stupid that it is not even worth mentioning…

 

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35 Responses to “Stage Set For First Constitutional Clash in Venezuela in 2016”

  1. Ronaldo Says:

    Ok. On Tuesday the opposition march to the AN needs to have giant posters proclaiming “Es irreversible” . Tipsi said it at least 5 times to make Maduro president even before all the votes were counted.

    Es irreversible is payback time.

  2. HugoChavez Says:

    This is your commandante, Hugo Chavez.

    I’ve been dead for several years, but the current situation is so bad that I simply had to come back from the grave to talk about it.

    I’m kind of busy right now, but I’ll drop in from time to time to make my presence known. However, I believe that many of VZ’s current problems wouldn’t have occurred if they made me look thinner in all of those murals. I mean, come on:

    I look like a cross between Oliver Hardy and Moe Howard.

    Anyway, I want to wish all of you a happy New Year–even those that will be raising a glass tonight to celebrate my death at the hands of Cuban medicine.

    • M Rubio Says:

      Just out of curiosity commandante, what’s the temperature where you normally hang out?

      • HugoChavez Says:

        Let’s just I shouldn’t have brought any winter clothing.

        (Hah!)

      • HugoChavez Says:

        It varies greatly. In some parts, it is well below -150 degrees Celisus (I believe that I saw Brutus hanging out there). In other parts, it is around 70 to 80 degrees. Personally, I hang in a large room with a lot of broken mirrors. Lots of interesting conversations with the likes of Idi Amin.

        • HugoChavez Says:

          This HugoChavez above is an IMPOSTER!

          I’m the only real and dead Chavez!

          I mean, come on:

          Minus 150? Or 70 to 80?

          Makes no sense based on the life I’ve lived.

          It’s a LOT hotter here!

          • HugoChavez Says:

            Mussolini has taught me all about Dante, my imposter friend. Flesh burns but this is nothing compared to the endless droning of Pinochet, the broken mirrors, and the millions of copies of my books that nobody takes.

            Besides I have always been smarter and more knowledgable than you imperialist swine.

            The election of readers has already confirmed that I am the true hijo de Bolívar. Ratificado por el CNE y cerificado por la Asembla de los Colectivos.

  3. M Rubio Says:

    I’ve long said that there is no way this government would willingly hand over the keys to the country to the opposition. That’s what would have happened with the new national assembly unless something, anything, was done to stop it. This government cannot have an elected body with the power to elect a supreme court and investigate the president himself. It cannot be tolerated.

    I’m in agreement with those who have called for peaceful protests as violence will play into the government’s hands. The difference between this holiday season and last year’s is marked. There is no food in the pueblo. Meat, eggs, flour, even cornmeal to make hallacas is nowhere to be found. The natvies are restless, very very restless.

    • Lee Kuan Yew Says:

      No one wants violence. But violence is already present in Vzla. # 1 in the Planet, past Honduras. To expect sudden peace, given all the circumstances stated above, would be foolish.

      Take care you all in Vzla. Be safe next year.

  4. Hans Roos Says:

    I am from Dutch Nationality, spending most of my time in Venezuela which I adore. I am retired and my background is business consultant dealing with companies that had gone totally sour and needed to be recovered. Not much different as Venezuela. So I thought some of my ideas could be applicable. So I put a condensed opinion on the table that might give some alternative ideas or discussion points.

    Economic Recovery

    Instead of forcing things with laws, use natural instincts. Most want to get richer and protect their wealth.

    Forced Repatriating of fraud USD

    Deposit into International reserve without exception.

    It will cost nothing

    It increases value of Bsf

    Incentive to voluntary repatriate USD into Bsf

    Protect or increase individual wealth

    Increased confidence

    IMF

    Bond market

    Capital market, ratings

    Enabling elegant debt structuring deals

    The positive effect is permanent and long-term opposite to consumption.

    Inflation might come under positive pressure

    Voluntary repatriating USD into Bsf with no penalty (No fraud background)

    Xrate in principle at real value Bsf (Now at 238)(The one that is intended to get better)

    If obtained at 6.3 then this is the getting richer instinct

    If obtained at Black Market Xrate, then risk of losing out at some point in future

    Voluntary repatriating USD into Bsf with no penalty (Probable fraud background)

    The 6.3 Xrate

    Identifying fraud

    6.3 Xrate and scrupulous put USD in foreign accounts

    Fraud business transactions

    Empty containers etc

    Overcharged invoices and excess put in foreign accounts

    Need help of China government to identify as an example

    It will cost China nothing

    No risk for Chinese companies

    Creates positive impression towards China and positive business incentive.

    There are probably a million ways of conducted fraud.

    The BSF’s needed for this process to be issued as short term bonds and at a favorable rate convertible into Venezuelan business stock. This creates incentives and capital for local production. This for if no cash is available and one should not create more inorganic money

    Business recovery

    Expropriated companies

    Return to original owners.

    Agree on a compensation amount to be cancelled in a creative way.

    No initial cash

    Favorable or zero tax rates.

    Guarantees

    Remainder cash payment related to economy recovery

    Full support for going public (stocks) (attractive)(guarantees)

    New companies

    Favorable or zero tax rates.

    Guarantees

    Full support for going public (stocks) (attractive)(guarantees)

    Oil dollars

    Reduce “social missions” to absolute minimum or zero

    Reduce government expenses

    Convert past results into attractive business deals.

    Houses give title to “original” receivers. No maintenance obligation.

    Taxis convert into attractive leases.

    Reduce government workforce or turn into efficiency

    Remove subsidies and convert into actual cost (Gasolina etc)

    After paid for reduced government expenses move remainder into

    Financing the banking system

    Let them figure out how to promote business loans

    Normal economics.

    Let supply and demand be the production and price rule otherwise business cannot function.

    There is probably also a history of companies exploiting the system. Companies are run by people. A fine to a company means nothing for the people who have created that problem. Rule: A company never can get a fine but just has to return the illegal proceedings and pay for the damage. The people who were responsible for the decisions get the hefty fine or if appropriate jail

    There must be an enormous waste of capital as current oil price has been seen in the past and then Venezuela was functioning a hell of a lot better.

    This waste of capital cannot and should not be dealt with by tax increases or else.

    Stop waste, lower tax, create business incentive. Money will come back as IVA.

    Import duties promotes local production.

    Excessive price differences in the region creates leakage of capital, crime, corruption etc

    Government should get out of competing with businesses

    Less crap laws is the only way to go

    Corruption

    Corruption is institutionalized in Venezuela

    Corruption paralyses government

    Corruption put people without capital at the sideline

    New laws are merely used to increase corruption

    To stop this, it has to stop completely. That is the only way.

    *Create a disruptive change*

    Starting at the top

    Under oath declare not to participate in corruption and agree to expose all assets, direct or indirect owned.

    Accept a clear job description and authorities

    Accept all inappropriate assets increases will result in confiscating all assets and jail term. Period

    Accept manipulation outside defined authority is jail. Period

    Agree to allow the public/press/police/judges to assess and judge and allow investigations

    Have a public simple set of descriptions of what is considered corruption and what is reasonable asset increase. The more complicated the description is, the easier to circumvent.

    Agree to propagate this down to all who report to that person.

    Agree to control that.

    Demand that people who report to them agree to the same rules and oath and thus propagation down, down.

    Zero tolerance

    That is tough but the only way.

    This goes down to all government workers

    Less crap laws is the only way to go

    Fewer licenses, permissions create less corruption and make society more flexible.

    Make sure that all subjected to this regime are properly financial compensated thereby removing any remote or social justification for corruption

    Make sure that breaking the law is not just paying some money on the street that easily can be overcome.

    For example, driving a car without proper lights is stopping the car until fixed. A repeat is a hefty fine to be paid to the state. More repeats, confiscate.

    No exceptions

    That is tough but the only way

    Crime

    This has gone completely out of hand

    Reducing crime at 10% per year is fundamental a flaw and a defeat proposition as it accepts 90% of 28.000 persons to be killed next year.

    Again a disruptive change is needed. Target 99% less or better in one year

    The police, for whatever reason, cannot handle this apparently

    There is a huge army that is relaxed preparing for a never coming war and certainly not in the short term as that can be managed and avoided

    That army could in *full* force systematically clean the house and fight the in house war. They should have the tools thanks to Maduro.

    Go into a large area and confiscate all illegal arms, using all means, mine detectors, tanks or what’s or ever and clean it out. Then the next area. Let the *public* advice on target areas, they know. I know certainly a few.

    Anyone possessing arms without a license be arrested.

    Anyone be found carrying arms in public, on a robbery job, on a violent demonstration, blackmailing, hostage taking etc, to be arrested and taken out the system. Agressively

    Same for drugs, robberies, you name it

    Adjust the penalty system to be significant more consequential.

    Probably temporally more penitential space is required. I am sure that can be found easy at a price.

    To exacerbate, there is enough space in the Sahara, and they love up there to get a fee

    It’s really simple if you want

    Get the army out. Let them fight the local war. Make them feel proud. Make them an integral part of making Venezuela great again. I am sure they will love that full hearted.

    All of above is not intended to compete with high skilled economic gurus. To my opinion above style provides a way to quickly recover with a government low on cash.

    Again. I am coming from a business consulting environment where I as an individual was invited to develop solutions for businesses that had gone completely sour and had cabinets full of highly sophisticated McKinsey reports and more all a waste of millions with zero impact. The real cause was never touched (really nobody wanted to touch). I many times went for a disruptive change, braking with past habits and go for people, motivation and very important for a method that was understandable for all.

  5. Barry Seal Says:

    NMMs actions and behavior reminiscent of Don Pablo Escobar. Building houses and giving taxis is right out of Pablo’s playbook. The similarities continue, both are cocaine cartel bosses who ply their wares in the U.S. Both are sociopathic and agree with comment that we’re going to see their killing potential soon.

  6. Dr. Faustus Says:

    “Meanwhile Maduro announced his new “economic” measures, which were so stupid that it is not even worth mentioning…”

    This is the real news here. Can ALL of them be that dumb? The entire economy is crashing/burning around them, yet everything is pointed in the direction of status quo? How on earth?

    • Eve F Says:

      NMM raised taxes! Regarding Cuba and Chile, I’m thinking Panama and Manuel Noriega. December 1989 is what this most closely resembles. Noriega was the Drug Thug. Wait a few months and the script will change.

      • Woodrow Wilson Says:

        Sealed indictments against DDC, his brother David, NMM and CF are a possible reality for 2016. Gonna be tough for Cuba to support that while facing its own economic realities that will in no way improve from falling Venezuelan subsidies.

  7. Lee Kuan Yew Says:

    The Devil is correct in the details, as usual. A major “clash of Constitutional powers” is imminent and inevitable.

    Except in Kleptozuela the “Constitution” has become a old, ragged, abused whore. A laughable little book that keeps getting modified arbitrarily with Draconian, illegal decrees, stepped on, violated every week, every year, year after year.

    I call this upcoming, bloody Circus the 2016 Criollo Star Wars. In boxing terms : “En una esquina, vestidos de rojito rojo, el Poder Mercenario Judicial y el Poder Malandristico Ejecutivo!! ” Y en la otra esquina, vestidos de blanco, el Poder Legislativo opositor MUDDDDD!!” Los arbitros: Sr. Almagro y Sr John Kerry!! Arbitros invitados” Ex-Presidentes de cualquier parte!! (Parte del espectaculo, sin ninguna autoridad ni eficacia) – Arbitros reales: La Fuerza Militar Corrupta, y El Pueblo que esta harto! “..

    It’s 2 against 1. At least. Plus the Corrupt, complicit “Empresarios”, the corrupt business Mega-Thugs with the stolen trillions (PDVSA, Corpoelec, Derwick Bolichicos, Filthy Bankers, 32 putrid Ministries with 4 million Enchufadisimos..) All facing extended JAIL time, plus Frozen bank accounts, no less.

    Vzla is already the most violent country on planet Earth, without a declared War.
    The Economy is going to get even worse next year. More colas, more escasez, more inseguridad. For sure. Oil ain’t going up, it’s going down.

    A recipe for disaster. A perfect Storm in the works. Either the Military intervenes in favor of the MUD, or the People will have to hit the Streets again. And again.
    Or both. And it’s not going to be the 60’s Peace&Love, Flower Power massive manifestations, I’m afraid.


    • It’s essential to avoid violence. People have to know they will be tortured and killed. But they can’t use violence. That’s what the Cubans who advise Maduro want.

      • Lee Kuan Yew Says:

        Will the criminal thugs in power avoid violence? Will the PDVSA, Corpoelec, Derwick and all mega-thieves avoid violence? Malandros like CapoCabello and Maduro and Luisa Ortega and Jorge Rodriguez and the Tareks, etc, etc, etc, plus the Corrupt Military.. The corrupt Sebin, Guardia Nazional, and all. The TSJ, the Susana Barreiros..

        They all know what they are facing: JAIL; No more riches. Poverty in Jail. Or, at best, a life of shame, without much money or power, living in some other country under a different name.

        And people think these thugs are going away without a bloody fight? Well, look at their criminal record, thus far, and multiply that by 100. A wounded beast is very dangerous.

      • Dean A Nash Says:

        One side alone can’t avoid violence – they can only suffer it. I disagree that the people should be asked to nobly suffer more violence. A coup would be a saving grace. Otherwise, there shall be violence. I was taught to “turn the other cheek.” Then I learned that hitting your enemy harder than they hit you works much better.

        And there are ways to hit that hurt. Hit their food. Power. Communications. Etc.. And yes, you’ll have to hit their bodies and draw blood. But only as a response, never as an initiative.

  8. Ira Says:

    Macri has to be fuming right now.

  9. Antonio Says:

    One could see a parallel here with the situation in Chile in 1973. The country was run by the Cuban-supported communist president Allende. Cuban troops and “advisers” were everywhere. The economy was a disaster. Then (taken from a communist-contributed Wikipedia entry) this happened…

    “On August 22, 1973, the Chamber of Deputies passed, by a vote of 81 to 47, a resolution calling for President Allende to respect the constitution. The measure failed to obtain the two-thirds majority in the Senate constitutionally required to convict the president of abuse of power, but the resolution still represented a challenge to Allende’s legitimacy. The military seized on the widespread discontent and on the Deputies’ resolution to then launch the September 11, 1973 coup d’état; as troops surrounded La Moneda Palace, Allende died later that day in uncertain and controversial circumstances.” The Cubans were duly expelled from Chile soon afterwards.

    As Mark Twain is reputed to have said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”

    • Lee Kuan Yew Says:

      Considering how Chile ended up, after 17 years of Pinochet, and comparing it to how Vzla ended up after 17 Chavismo — (3000 dead vs. 250,000 dead; best country in L. America vs. worse country in L. America) — such a tough military solution perhaps would not be that bad.

      In Singapore, the Big Carrot and the Big Stick game has worked out pretty well too, huh.


  10. Saying null votes go one way or the other would be the most absurd argument in the world. They could have the election again at the rusk of losing with more votes.


    • So we see Maduro return and start a ruthless attack against the National Assembly, including the use of the fake Supreme Court justices to take down the opposition’s veto proof majority.

      I believe Maduro’s disappearance from public view was caused by a visit to Cuba, to receive advice (orders?) from Raúl Castro and his Venezuela experts.

      To figure out Maduro’s behavior you have to think of him as being guided by Cuban military and intelligence personnel coordinated by Raul’s son, Alejandro “el Tuerto”. Alejandro is said to be somewhat of a psychopath, with average intelligence, and raised as a princeling. I’ve met these new generation communist oligarchs, they truly resemble 15th century nobility.

      Unfortunately for Venezuelans, the information and suggestions Raúl is receiving from his people embedded in the Chavista regime are all filtered and shaped by Alejandro.

      My guess is that Raúl, Alejandro, and their nomenklatura feel they can have Maduro get away with anything. Why? Because Latin American, European, and other nations, and Obama, are being quite friendly towards their dictatorship in spite of its continuous human rights abuses.

      This means Venezuelans are about to face relentless Stalin/Hitler type repression, carried out by desperate thugs who know no limits and are convinced that eventually they’ll regain full control…and get away with everything.

      • Dean A Nash Says:

        In other words, no change, i.e. the same as before, but more so.


        • The repression is coming. Venezuela is already extremely violent, and we already saw the hard core Chavista on Maduro’s tv show saying people would have to be shot in the back of the head. The key, I think, is to avoid violence, because that’s what the Cubans want – that’s their playing field.

          If the Venezuelan people do avoid violence, but exercise their right to peaceful protest, there will be arrests, people will be killed…and whatever the Cubans plan will fall apart because the economy will keep on imploding. We know Maduro’s economic moves are brainless – not only is he bossed by Cubans who can’t play a game devoid of violence, he’s already boxed in by his own idiocy.

          I have been explaining to Venezuelans for many years that chavismo was a Cuban construct, they brought Chavez aboard with the bs about bolivarianism and telling him he would be the new bolivar with their assistance. Chavez wasn’t a puppet. He was manipulated. But Maduro is a Cuban agent.

          Venezuelans I know, including many of you here, have had a tendency to dismiss my opinion, I think mostly because they are proud, can’t stand the idea that a poor, ragged ancient dictatorship would conquer them and suck the marrow out of their country, destroy it, and leave it as it is today, using a deluded Venezuelan fifth column.

          The interesting side is that Raúl Castro isn’t communist. He’s more of a fascist general, a Franco type. He’s not ambitious, but Alejandro his son wants that power. And this is where Venezuela falls into hell. And this is why Venezuelans really can’t afford to aid Obama’s reapproachment with Castro at this point. We Cubans are all alone, pissed on by every elite wishing we would just shut up and be Castro’s slaves. Venezuelans are about to join us if they don’t wise up. And the only so.ution is internal. The Chavistas themselves will have to stop Maduro and the Cubans.

          • Orozco Says:

            You are absolutely right Lameme, no one here gives a crap about your long, boring and self congratulatory posts.
            Have a happy new year

            • Dean A Nash Says:

              I disagree, Orozco. Not only am I interested, but I’m afraid that he is more correct than wrong. The thing that decent people have the hardest time accepting is that some people are downright evil.The Castro brothers fall into this category.

              Venezuela is screwed for a long, long time. There are no pleasant ways forward. I’d personally like to see a benign dictator (although I know that there is no such thing.) People are going to die, no matter how it plays out. On the other hands, tens of thousands are dying already, so, choose your poison.

              I believe a strong hand to restore order is step #1. He’ll probably have to already be corrupted and have a “conversion” of sorts. (Are there any honest Generals remaining?)

  11. IslandCanuck Says:

    Miguel I read somewhere (maybe in Daniel’s blog) tonite that the differences were less than the number of null votes.
    That may be the reason they are going to use but as there is no proof that the null votes would have fallen one way or the other it doesn’t seem valid.

    Also they’ve all been talking about the buying of votes which is quite ironic.
    They don’t have any shame do they?


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