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Nine Devilish Years, which makes me feel…exhausted!!!

August 4, 2011

A friend and reader sent me an email today and reminded me that my blog has been around one of these days for all of nine years. I checked and indeed it was born on Aug. 4th. 2002, exactly nine years ago today. Which makes me feel, when I think about it, like the picture above…

Exhausted!!!

I thought this would be short and sweet, a two to three year project, which turned into a nine year night job…and counting…

But hey! See that tree at the end of the road, there is still hope! And I happen to be very stubborn and tenacious (Yes, I was born in late April). So, I will be around for a while.

Here is that first post:

Banana Republics 101 Part I

Most people who live in or are from underdeveloped countries take offense when anyone refers to their own or, for that matter, any other country, as a Banana Republic. The term originated in the Central American countries were the United Fruit Co. operated, but has come to signify countries which may not even qualify to be called countries because of the way they are run. I do feel like I live in one, when I try to explain to my friends from abroad any of the following:

-For the first time in ten years Venezuela has economists in both the Minisitry of Finance and the  Ministry of Planning. In the past, we have had a Mathematician, a Sociologist, an Urban Planner and an engineer, to cite a few. (Not true anymore in 2011, thyey got rid of the Economists, brought back the Mathematician and Urban Planner)

-Venezuela is part of OPEC, where it gets together with its most important competitors to decide how much each country should produce per day. Interestengly enough, Venezuela is the OPEC country, other than Iraq for different reasons,  that has reduced its production the most in the last thirty years. Despite this, few Venezuelans are convinced we should split from OPEC. Thats ok with me, but don’t you think we should even discuss it? (Still the case in 2011)

-There were mudslides in the coastal zones near Caracas in Dec. 1999. Estimates are that close to 40,000 people died. The US Army Core of Engineers offered to rebuild the coastal highway (for free!!) an send ships to Venezuela. The Government refused to accept the aid and the ships  turned back. To this day, three years later, the highway has yet to be completed. (Parts of it were rebuilt, some are a mess today in 2011)

-We say we live in a democracy. Despite this, only one candidate in the last ten years was elected in a primary of his party. He lost. (Still the case in 2011)

-There were riots this week in Caracas. Government supporters rioted for two days, shot people, blocked streets and created chaos in the city. The Government announced today that it had asked the Attorney General to investigate the abuses of the police when they used tear gas from a helicopter. The President has banned the flying of police helicopters over the city. There has been no call to investigate the rioters, where they got their weapons or who leads them. (Nothing ever gets investigated in 2011, except to screw the opposition)

Hate to see what a Banana Republic would be like…..

Did Diosdado Cabello really say that?

August 3, 2011

There is no doubt that the fact that the opposition decided to go with a single voting card has instilled fear and confusion in Chavismo. Chavismo never expected it would happen, but it did. Chavez attacks it, Jaua attacks it. Then Diosdado Cabello attacks it in the video above and then says:

“They are more tangled up than we are…”

Did Diosdado really say that?

Yeap! Not once, but actually three times, with his characteristic stutter. (Minute 0:34)

Maybe Diosdado could expand further on their “enredo”, they must really be tangled up for him to get stuck on that single idea.

Chavez Presidential Honor Guard, Not so Honorable

August 3, 2011

How about this “Generalito” in charge of Chavez’ Honor Guard who tells Chavez in no uncertain terms:

“You will always be our Commander, for now, forever. And there is no doubt we will never accept another Commander”

Some Democrat and ignorant fool this not so honorable General, who clearly does not understand democracy or the Venezuelan Constitution. Hopefully, there will not be a “Commander” to pay full respect and devotion to in Miraflores Palace after December 2012.

This is simply an attempt to suck up to Chavez and at the same time intimidate the opposition. But here it is, for the record and for the trial…

And yes, I am trying to intimidate too.

Chavez’ New Look: More Than Just a Bald Head

August 2, 2011

So, everyone looked at Chavez’ bald head when he talked about his “New Look”, but everything about Chavez’ image is carefully calculated and designed. From left to right:

1) Flag behind him, not always present.

2) Glasses, more likely due to the chemotherapy, which means he used to wear contact lenses for vanity reasons, but now can’t.

3) Nice, businessman-like new suit. Gone is the red shirt, only the red tie remains true to form.

4) Well appointed guard behind him, making him look Presidential.

5) Bald head, some spots begin to show up, particularly on the right side of the head. Cut before it becomes noticeable.

6) Little Venezuelan flag substitutes jackets and other implements.

7) Nice gold non-socialist Patek Phillipe watch, model 5119J, retails for close to $20,000 but you can get it for about 15K if you are a careful shopper. I wonder who coughed up the money for this present. And where did the Panerai go?

So, we are back to the soft, serious image. The lovable Hugo, I just wonder how long it will last. We have seen “new” looks before.

Is Hugo Chavez’ Behavior What One Would Expect Up To Now?

August 1, 2011

(Nice overlap between Chavez’ “New” bold look and the red beret on the guard behind him)

Having just finished reading the book “Leaders and their Followers in a dangerous world-The Psychology of Political Behavior” by Jerrold M. Post, I can’t help but attempt to analyze and extrapolate what I read to the recent behavior of Hugo Chavez after his recent illness.

First, the way in which the illness has been handled conforms to expectations:

“There is a premium on concealing illness, or, if this is not possible, on minimizing the perception of the severity of the impairment…this need to preserve the image of health may cause leaders to avoid comprehensive diagnostic evaluation and treatment altogether or to undergo inadequate treatment secretly”

Well, Chavez was and clearly is a textbook example of this. From the time of his “knee” ailment, to taking him to Cuba later, he avoided a comprehensive evaluation and tried to have treatment in secret, however, things got complicated. There was and there continue to be attempts to conceal the illness and its severely. Curiously, it is Chavez that seems to reveal the most about what he has, nobody else says or reveals much and when they do, like Izarra, Rangel or that famous PSUV press conference, they are usually lying. It is Chavez verbal incontinence that has told us some, but not all of the details of the illness. In fact, today, amazingly, we still don’t have a formal announcement of what the President has, other than he has cancer and we don’t even know where.

Second, how narcissistic leaders (and the book clearly defines him as one) react to a terminal illness may vary, but based on the book, it would seem from that he should be intensifying his acts, seeking the immortality through what he does, personality traits become more intense now that his life may end sooner than he thought:

“The specter of the end of his life may ignite a terminal explosion in a frantic last ditch attempt to ensure immortality”

I really don’t think we have seen this (yet?) in Chavez. He has actually been perhaps even more subdued, even removing some of the symbols of his Presidency, like changing “Patria, Socialsimo o Muerte”, saying it is not normal to wear red shirts all the time and that he does not want to have the word socialist attached to everything. Perhaps we have to wait for this to surface. But he may be misjudging what he is doing. Many of these symbols are entrenched in the population and changing signals on them is simply confusing for people accustomed to a unified discourse and signalling from Chavez and his Government. Acting hasrhly is one signature of the behavior an this may or not be a consequence of this.

What is clear from the book is that these type of leaders and narcissistic personalities tend to go into denial, refusing to accept that they will relinquish power, which may explain the surprise trips that Chavez has made every time that he has been under treatment in Cuba. Historically, when an autocrat has a  severe illness, those that surround him want greater participation, but the autocrat refuses to yield. He wants control and power, he does not want to lose that. They tend to make decisions, particularly tough ones, too late or in a rush. They lose the control and premeditation that they usually exhibit in their plotting and acts.They act rashly and make mistakes, they tend to engage in a new relationship with subordinates, where they listen even less to advise.

Thus, from what I learned in the book, it is hard to reach a conclusion, but we don’t know all that is happening.

Going forward, I was struck by this sentence in the book:

“Dreams of glory are responsible for some of civilizations greatest achivements, but the intemperate reactions of aging and ailing leaders to the ebbing of their power and the frustrated dreams of their youth have been responsible for some of history’s most tragic excesses”

Let’s hope this does not apply in our case.

Next: in the reading list:”When illness Strike the Leader: The Dilemma of the Captive King” by Robins and Post.

Venezuelan Electoral Factoid # 3,141,156: Cuba Versus Miami

August 1, 2011

There are 215,000 Venezuelans who legally live in the US. Of these, 25,903 are registered to vote in Miami, which acts as a voting center for Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Chavez got only 2.23% of the votes in that Consulate against Manuel Rosales in 2006.

Contrast that with Cuba, where barely 665 Venezuelan are currently registered to vote. Chavez got 100% of the votes against Manuel Rosales in 2006 in Cuba.

But,…there are FOUR (4) voting centers in Cuba so that the 665 voters can comfortably vote for Hugo at their leisure.

Does it really matter who is named Minister under Chavez?

July 31, 2011

I have been somewhat surprised by the number of emails and comments talking about the fact that Deputy Iris Varela was named Minister for Prisons or whatever name that new Ministry was given.

But really, does it really matter?

The fact that Ms. Varela has no managing experience is simply a continuation of a long chain of Ministers with similar non-qualifications. About the only requirement to be Minister under Chavez is that you are loyal. I mean, a guy who seeks treatment for a life-threatening disease with the least competent possibility, can not truly believe in expertise.

Take über Minister Jorge Giordani, he has a Bachelors in Electrical Engineering, a Ph.D. in Urban Planning and now he is Minister of Planning and Minister of Finance, is on the Board of the Central Bank and PDVSA. For only a brief time during Chavez’ tenure, Giordani has not been in charge of Economic Planning in the country. During this period, inflation is close to 1000% and except that one is not allowed to quote the parallel rate, devaluation has also been in that same range. Giordani has tried everything an has been unable to reduce inflation, reduce debt, control liquidity. He ha no idea on what needs to be done, but he keeps chugging along.

It seems to be the same everywhere, Setty has told us recently about the wonderful plans to increase oil production under Rafael Ramirez, while Cronicas de Caracas told us about the Minister of Sports that wants to pass a Bill that will likely destroy professional sports in Venezuela and we are not even sure the guy ever graduated from the University. But we are sure Vice-President Jaua did, even if it took him 15 (or was it 20?) years to do it. Oh yeah! Minister Garces has a Ph.D., which he obtained in 2007, he never even proved he could research, let alone manage a group, or a Minsitry and his expertise has little to do with being Minister of Transport and Communications.

So, should I really care about Iris Varela being named Minister for Prisons? Not really. Would she recognize a human right if she saw one? Ask Cesar Perez Vivas. Today she says very nonchalantly that 20,000 of the 45,000 prisoners in the country “have all the legal conditions to be out of jail”. She talks as if she was an extra-terrestrial who just landed in Venezuela to solve the prison problem, not an integral part of the Government which has allowed this “small” illegality to exist. I mean, the same people who have ignored for twelve years the crime problem, all of a sudden realize there are 20,000 people in jail who should legally be free. She proves it today when she says: If a Judge does not obey me, I just ask the Chief Justice to remove him.  This is Varela’s concept of “Justice” tp say nothing of the  absence of room for criticism in the revolution.

And her goal? To shut down jails. Really, and where does she plan to put the 30,000 remaining prisoners who are currently in jails designed for about 15,000 prisoners at most?

In the end, it really does not matter. Know how, knowledge, ability, management are simply non existing concepts in the revolution. Just to prove it, look up PDVSA’s financials in the company’s webpage. Don’t look at revenues, don’t look at earnings, don’t look at production. Simply go to point g) on page 14. There under the heading “Research and Development” you will see the progression of expenses for this very important (to me!) item:

2008 $555 million

2009 $276 million

2010 $188 million

To me that says it all about the role of knowledge and know-how in the Chavez revolution. As a General told me ominously a few years ago: “If Chavez can Be President, why not me?”

The President of the Venezuelan Supreme Court Thinks We Are Truly Stupid (Maybe she is right!)

July 22, 2011

Luisa Estella Morales is truly a piece of cake. She spews BS like there is no end to it. After the Supreme Court accepted the case to ban leading opposition candidate Herique Capriles on trumped up corruption charges, she swiftly turned around and discarded the case because the accused misrepresented himself when presenting the case as holding a certain position in Chavez’ PSUV case.

Talk about a silly technicality with no legal basis.

But I guess Luisa Estella, who was removed from the bench, not once, but twice, which apparently qualified her to be Chief Justice of the Venezuelan Supreme Court under Chavez, thinks she is on a roll in trying to fool us, and she is trying it once more. Maybe she is right and we are indeed idiots, after all look at what job she holds. Here is the story:

Chavez’ Government approved a Bill imposing a salary cap on public servants. Supreme Court Justices who made at least US$ 7,000 a month, something like 20 times a year, were among those most affected by the decision as their salary would have to roll back to Bs. 12,000. But in their infinite creativity, the Court implemented a food card of Bs. 10,000 for all Justices, around seven times the minimum salary, to complement the “capped” salary of Bs. 12,000.

Except it leaked to the press, not via a leak, or as she calls it, “It was taken to the press in an inaccurate fashion”, but the simple fact that one of the members of the Court (see two posts ago), Blanca Marmol de Leon, rejected the food tickets, because it was undignified and illegal. Marmol de Leon said that this was a “fraud of the law” and it was a way to look for “alternate routes”. Marmol de Leon also said that at least four Justices had rejected the food tickets. I hope we learn who, those guys should stay in the Court, whenever the not so revolutionary “Justices” are swept out of the Court.

And indeed, Luisa Estella confirms, Marmol de Leon’s “alternate route” theory, when she says: “The Court will undertake an extensive review, from a legal point of view”.

Jeez, I thought that was what they did all the time; look at things exhaustively from a legal (and supreme) point of view.

But since she is ready to assume we are stupid, she said: “It is not a bonus, it is not a food ticket, it is for our expense account”

I guess someone has to pay for lunch when they go meet with the party hacks who tell them how to rule and sentence in their cases.

And in closing, she tells that she hopes the “people” will not have an erroneous vision and distorted view of the Justices.

No, we don’t, but we certainly seem that stupid!

Chavez’ Arepera Socialista Project, Follows his Ruta de La Empanada and His Vertical Chicken Coop Projects

July 21, 2011

The Government went from trying to “intervene” private areperas, to creating its own revolutionary network of areperas socialistas, then it was not long after that some of the revolutionary workers  were caught stealing from the till. (Whatever happened to Minister Saman who said he was going to work for free a few hours a week? I guess when he got fired, that destroyed his revolutionary fervor)

And as is usually the case from a  Government that knows how to destroy value, but is clueless as to how to go about to creating it, at least two of the areperas are confirmed closed by now, including the main one that Chavez inaugurated:

This follows in the path of Chavez’ Ruta de La Empanada or his Vertical Chicken Coop Projects, to say nothing of more important things like cement, steel or oil projects.

The sign says they will “relaunch” it, another wasteful and useless overhaul in the country of interventions, overhauls and re-powering of everything damaged or destroyed under the revolutionary sun. Hopefully, this wil not get byond that sign this time around.

Note added: Sabio Sapiosetty tells us in the comments they moved the arepera to a truck in front. I wonder what happened to all the infrastructure in the store and I hope the truck does not get stolen.

In Venezuela, “Prison is a death sentence at random”

July 20, 2011

A week ago, there was an interview with Supreme Court Justice Blanca Marmol de Leon in El Nacional, which shows, from within,  how distorted and dysfunctional the Venezuelan system of Justice is. Some excerpts:

Thirty six years ago one of her clients told her “I had to pay to sleep on the stairs of Catia Prison. Three decades later, the variety of businesses in our prisons has become more sophisticated, to the point of what we have seen in the Rodeo prison: a prison governed by the inmates and some authorities unable to regain control. ”
Marmol Leon said that the primary responsibility for the prison crisis is that of the Executive Branch: “Even if the criminal courts act swiftly to avoid procedural delays, it is in their power to prevent the risk of dying from the extreme violence in Venezuelan prisons .

For example, if the judge orders the transfer of a prisoner to court, but there is no transport, his hands are tied. The diagnoses have been around for a long time, what is needed is consistent decisions on the part of the government. ”

Marmol Leon ads: Rocío San Miguel had been advised of the possibility of prisoners escaping from El Rodeo, particularly the promoters of the riot. At the end there are many questions we do not know, like how many died or how many escaped.

How could prisoners escape from from El Rodeo if the area was cordoned off? How is it that only now they have realized that dozens of prisoners were eligible to be released? The criminal court judges do not know if when we condemn a man to three months in jail, we are condemning him to death, because in Venezuela prison is a death sentence at random.

Sentencing judges could be moved to prisons in order to streamline processes. We can not forget that most Venezuelan judges are afraid. Repeating what was said by Couture, the Uruguayan jurist: In a country where judges are afraid, the people can not sleep. In Venezuela, no one can sleep peacefully and those that do, it is because they have not thought about the severity of deterioration in the administration of justice, because they have not noticed that if there are fearful judges who are eager to please those hold political  and economic power, all citizens are in danger of imprisonment and death.

No citizen in Venezuela has the assurance that a judge will respect their rights. Remember that if a judge agrees to the freedom of a person the government wants to maintain he can be removed and even imprisoned, as happened to Judge Maria Lourdes Afiuni. Most judges ado not have the professional or ethical strength to administer justice, and they do not hesitate to give up the freedom of a person in exchange for their tenure as Judges.

On the regression of Venezuela’s judicial system in the last few years:

The involution is such that the presidents of the criminal judicial circuits are instructed to tell the judges how to decide the cases.

And then when she is asked where these instructions come from, she says:

From the Supreme Court. So I’ve been told.

If there is no independent judiciary, there can be no rule of law.  I is impossible. There is no rule of law because there is no autonomy and independence of public powers, which is essential in a democracy. In Venezuela we have less democracy because we have fewer independent judges.

What can we expect from the judges if the majority of Supreme Court judges admit that they are politically engaged with the government? The highest authorities of the judiciary can not be committed to any government or with any political ideology.

I just saw the sentence against Oswaldo Alvarez Paz. The goal is to criminalize dissent.

The authorities of the Supreme Court proclaimed socialist ethics, but the salary is increased by a bonus of food, apparently, outside the law. I think the Emoluments Act is unconstitutional, but is in effect and we must comply it. Our salary was reduced to 12,000 Bolivars per month and that this resulted in absurd situations. For example, an assistant judge earns more than a judge and a retired judge earns more than an active one.

On her salary before it was cut:

A basic salary of 30,000Bolivars (about US$ 7,000) and a premium for experience.

There you have it, straight from the inside of the Court!!