The Devil's Excrement

And on the second day, Hugo Chavez became his usual self,
lying, misrepresenting reality and blasting the media for their inaccuracies,
while spewing out a bunch of them without blinking.

I guess it was too much to ask that Chavez would in any
way change. But sometimes you wonder about him. Like
saying that he lost Petare (actually Sucre) because it is full of the well
to do rich and racist people. He mentioned a bunch of areas, which, while
middle class are not exactly even average middle class saying “these areas are
filled with rich people who on top of that are racist because they have blacks
that iron for them and are their drivers”. And then to top it all off, he
showed his ignorance by saying that these areas are “full of golf courses”.

I guess Chavez does not even know the Sucre municipality,
where as far as I know there are no golf courses, unless Izcaragua is inside
that municipality, but I don’t believe it is. In any case those that go to
Izcaragua mostly don’t live in Sucre anyway.

Because there is indeed some middle class in Sucre, but
certainly they are not very rich, nor well to do, nor do they have help. It is
an area of average to low middle class, except maybe in Los Chorros and maybe
in El Marquez. In fact, if I have an image of what I would like the average
Venezuelan family to be, it would be those in the areas Chavez was mentioning:
Honest middle class people, hard working and trying to improve their lives.

But apparently Chavez’ dream is to have all Venezuelans be
poor and dependent on the giveaways and handouts he may feel like giving them.

He did complain about his parties two Mayors and the fact
that there are problems picking up garbage and that one of them (Juan Barreto)
was in Paris giving conferences. But who pimped Barreto and Bernal all these
years? Who allowed them both to steal their municipalities blind? Who allowed
them to switch from the outsourced garbage system to the unworkable
cooperatives where the workers are neither owners nor employees?

The problem is that Chavez refuses to admit that he may be
at fault. He plucked both Bernal and Barreto out of thin air and in order to
thank them for their loyalty allowed them to ride his coattails to their
elections. Not happy with that, after three years of very mediocre performance,
he backed them again, allowing three more years of incompetent and negligent
Government with plenty of foreign travel involved.

And then Chavez responded t a question about whether he
was going to seek another Constitutional referendum to allow him to run again,
by blasting the reporter CNN’s Patricia Janiot, for saying that he had stated
that if the opposition won any of the Governor races. Chavez said his words
were manipulated by the media because he had never said such a thing.

Maybe Chavez does not remember his won words, here they are for history
and maybe someone should showed them to , there are no conditionals in his
words:

Despite this video, Chavez dared to say: “I never threatened anyone
with taking the tanks out if we lost and you know I would be incapable of doing
that (sic), if you know me you would know that I could not do it. (sic). I am
not crazy (sic).”

Out of touch or out of medication?

While I am satisfied with the performance of the
opposition yesterday, it does not mean that I am happy. Perhaps the most
important message from yesterday was that there were no real clear winners.
Some people scored victories, other losses, but not one group managed to do it
all.

To start with there is Hugo Chavez. He lost in that the
results of yesterday’s races should stop him from looking for another
referendum to change the Constitution so that he can be reelected forever. The
numbers simply say is not worth his time to even try it. In fact, if the
opposition did not do better it was because it was not united, but they will be
united if Chavez proposes again that he should be able to perpetuate himself in
power. Tonight Chavez suggested that the people could ask for such a
referendum, suggesting that we are likely to see another proposal in 2009. He
will suffer another defeat if he tries.

Chavez was also a winner, because he managed to stop the
opposition from winning beyond its traditional strongholds, even if it did
well. Chavez was a winner because his party the PSUV, managed to win a lot more
Mayoral races than the opposition. There is no other way to interpret that.

And last night, Chavez also looked like a winner,
accepting the victory of the opposition in certain states and respecting it.
Not speaking in a forced nationwide “cadena” , but from his party’s
headquarters, appearing conciliatory. But this all changed today when he went
back to his usual self, being aggressive against some winners and disrespecting
the people that voted for Carlos Ocariz in the Sucre municipality of Caracas.
As usual, the gentle, nicer Chavez seems to have a twenty four hour lifetime in
a country asking for some peace.

The opposition scored a victory also, in that it gained five
states and the Metropolitan Mayor, winning where 42% of Venezuelans live and a
little bit more than that in terms of voters. But the opposition lost too, in
that it appears that it did not gain as much as was thought in terms of municipalities,
but the numbers are not all in.

The opposition also lost, because it could have scored a
much larger victory if it had presented a more united front in places like
Bolivar and Yaracuy, where it could have won. But it was not meant to be, the
little caudillos and outdated politicians that hang on to what little is left
of their popularity and who placed their interests above that of the people,
hurt the opposition too much.

Chavez also lost, because he seems to lose in urban areas
and he also loses big where the middle class lives. Paradoxically, Venezuela is
basically an urban country, but Chavez loses in urban areas, while the
opposition seems to make no inroads in rural areas. Both groups should reflect
on this.

Oh, but there were some huge losers, people like Andres
Velasquez, Claudio Fermin, the Lapi family from Yaracuy, Aristobulo Isturiz,
Rojas Suarez and William Davila, who hopefully will never again run for
anything more important than their condo board.

On the Chavismo side, the Governor of Miranda State
Diosdado Cabello lost his reelection, a big blow to the aspirations of the man
once considered to be Chavez’ successor. Perhaps there is a lesson there for
other Chavista Governors elected last night, it is not all about politics, you
also have to work hard for the people.  Not rush to inaugurate some public works infrastructure the
week before the election, even if they were not completed. The people may b naive,
but not dumb.

And speaking of big losers, the so-called dissident
Chavistas did not win a single Governorship, despite the polls indicating they
could win as many as four. In one, Chavez’ own state of Barinas, the loser, another
Chavista, is claiming foul saying he has copy of all the results and he won and
suggesting the CNE violated its own rules when it announced the victory by
Chavez’ brother even before it had the required 85% of the tally sheets. He
claims he can prove and for once, it is nice to see a fight like this between
two Chavista forces and have the opposition not be involved.

As for winners, it was also like Night of the Living Dead,
with Ledezma rising from his political ashes to score a victory that seemed
quite difficult months ago when Leopoldo Lopez was banned from running for this
office. And Henrique Capriles, despite his dullness, was able to fill the shoes
of Enrique Mendoza who was also banned as way of stopping the opposition in
Miranda. Chavez clearly understood that he needed the bans in Miranda, the
Metropolitan Mayor and Tachira, but it did not work, all that work and strategy
went for nothing, all three places went to the opposition alternates, even if
none could match the excitement of the originals.

But the biggest winners in my opinion were the Governor-elect
of Zulia State Pablo Perez and the new elected Mayor of the Sucre municipality
in Caracas Carlos Ocariz. The first one, because he becomes Governor of
Venezuela’s largest state by population and his dynamic, young and fresh face,
with no connections to the past will be quite visible. He speaks well and will
ride his popularity on the structure left by Manuel Rosales there.  Ocariz on the other hand, will become
Mayor of much-neglected Sucre, an area ignored for too long and where hard
working Ocariz should be able to make things better for the people with the aid
of his fellow Mayors of the Metropolitan area, from which he can copy a lot
ideas and models. In Perez and Ocariz, we may have some of the leading future
leaders that the opposition so sorely needs.

Finally, the old parties are dead and Primera Justicia and
Un Nuevo Tiempo have consolidated their existence as the leading parties in the
country. The rest are largely irrelevant even if COPEI won Tachira. Perhaps it
is time for all the splinter groups left in the opposition to join these
groups, choose the one you prefer, ask for democracy and start working the
streets. This election does show that hard work (Trabajo de Hormiguita) pays
off, ask Ledezma, Ocariz, Capriles and Falcon if this is not the case.
Venezuela needs more politicians like that and not what I call living room
politicians”, which the opposition is full of. 

And don’t forget that winning this races gives the
opposition not only power and the possibility to show they can do a better job
for the people, but it also gives them a power base of resources to compensate
the overwhelming domination by Chavismo in the use (and abuse!) of resources
and the media to promote their cause.

Hopefully each side will understand what it gained or lost
in the regional elections. That may be the key to Venezuela’s and their own political future.

As expected the opposition wins Tachira and Carabobo for a total of five states and the Metropolitan Mayor.

We gain three states and the Metropolitan Mayor and we control States with 40% of the population where I get that number by adding the population of Libertador, assuming the Metropolitan Mayor is like  a Governor, but subtracting voters from the other municipalities.

Not bad indeed…

If I assume the opposition did win in Carabobo and Tachira as seems to be the case, I believe the opposition gains about the right amount at this time. If my assumption is correct, then the opposition will have gained Carabobo, Miranda and Tachira, as well as winning in the race for Metropolitan Mayor. Recall that Caracas has been a bastion of Chavismo since 1998 and now the opposition holds also four of the five municipalities in the city.

I think this is sweet. Sweet, because Chavez wasted his time banning Leopoldo Lopez and Enrique Mendoza as well as the guy from Tachira that would have won that state too. Sweet because Chavez lost ground we gained it and in a country that is mostly urban, we won in the most important urban areas.

Tonight, as news suuggested we may have chances in other states, I begain worrying that if the opposition won a huge victory, then the upcoming economic crisis may blamed in the oppsoition. After all, the opposition did not lose Sucre, a guy who a year ago was considered Chavista lost that state to another Chavista. And you could say the same about Guarico, Cojedes and Barinas. Would it have been nice to see the Chavez Royal family lose in their corrupted state? Of course, but it was not the oppsoition who lost.

But I want Chavez and his cohorts and his National Assembly to be in full power of the Nation when the ceonomic crisis hits. Last wee, Venezuela’s oil basket hit around US$ 41 per barrel. havez and Chavismo to pay for the mismanagement of the country: Thyey should preside over it. And to give you an idea, a Venezuelan barrel of oil costs now US$ 29 to produce, as four years of inflation and a fixed exchange rate have simply made local costs prohibitely large. Unless oil prices bounce back and no matter when Chief Economist Chavez decides to devalue, inflation shoudl hit another 50% next year. Chavez and his buddies should pay for it by being in charge, by assuming responsibility over the mess created under the autocrat.

Yes, Venezuelans will ahve a rough time next year and the one after that. But this will be the case no matter who is in charge, so let Chavez do it. Lt’s see if he has enough money as he claims he does. Let’s see if he still thinks buying all of those perfectly functioning companies to satisfy his ego was the right thing to do.

Meanwhile, the opposition now has a power base to work for Venezuela as those that divided it in some states lick their wounds and hopefully dissapear from the Venezuelan political map forever.Let these Governors work and show that they are better, much better and rational than Chavismo. That they can do better for the people. And let them show that people can’t  eat ideology and that not one man can decide for all of us.

Then, we should be able to win a majority and insure that Chavismo either changes or it will become another small political party.

So, it’s a sweet victory for the oppsoition and just as big as we needed (or even deserved) at this time

The Consejo Nacional Electoral finally issued its first bulltein at 11:47 PM . The first results are as follows, states without a final number are undecided. If the opposition wins Tachira and Carabobo, it will have been a good victory as it has the three most populous states in the country. However, the divisions hurt, Bolivar and  Yaracuy could have been won, but the victories in Miranda and the Metropolitan Mayor are certainly sweet. Chavez may claim victory, but he must be nervous :

Abstention 34.5%

95.67% of votes for the country

Undecided: Tachira, Carabobo

Opposition: Nueva Esparta (57.6%), Miranda (52.5%), and Zulia (53.5%)

Chavismo: Anzoategui (56.6%), Cojedes (51.5%) Delta Amacuro (55.54%), Bolivar (46.4%), Aragua (58.5%), Portuguesa (57%), Falcon (55.2%), Trujjilo (59.5%), Apure (56.4), Sucre (56.1%)Vargas (61,5%), Lara (73.1%), Barinas 49%, Guarico (54.3%), Merida (54%). Monagas (74.7%) and Yaracuy (57.46%)

Opposition wins Alcaldia Mayor (Metropolitan Mayor (52.4%)

10:40 PM Information remains consistent, talk of additional upsets, getting even weird, are people overly optimistic? CNE has 80% plus tabulated already and may give a bulletin within the hour.

9:06 PM I am hearing that the opposition is doing well and will surprise in two states and that Chavismo lost Barinas. If the opposition pulls off the Metropolitan Mayor, we are talking big upset for Hugo. I have this from two sources, one of which had a negative view coming into the election.  The best part is that they agree on the upsets even.

At 8 PM there are conflicts all over the place as to whether polling places should be closed or not. TV stations are shwoing both cases, centers where there are no voters and it is open or someone is trying to reopen them, or centers where the authorities want it to be shut down. Similarly, not all centers are allowing witnesses to come in which is another source of conflict.

I think is going to be a long night if you want to know all the details, in the end Chavez will say he won, unless he lost Miranda, Alcaldia Mayor and Barinas, the opposition needs all three to limit Chavez’ ability to claim victory.

If the opposition can win six to seven states plus the Alcaldia Mayor, then it can claim it gained a lot of ground and Chavez should be worried.Similarly, if the opposition loses Carabobo, Miranda or Zulia, it will be huge for Chavez. Overall, the opposition should have more votes and Chavez more states.

Will post as news comes in

(Top left voting sheets as people will see them in the machines. Right: Elderly line at a voting center)

Compared to the Constitutional Referendum lines today are long in most places I visited in Caracas, but this is likely due to the complexity of the vote more than anything else. On the top left you can see all of the choices people have on the machine. Someone who lives in Miranda State has 9 votes to complete: One Governor, One Mayor, one Metropolitan Mayor, three members for the Legislature of the State and one list for the same Legislature, one City Council member and one list for City Council. Add to this the dozens of small parties and the fact that you choose on the same sheet and it can indeed be confusing. For example, on the left above there are two sheets where you vote for Governor and three members of the Legislature and the list, if you want to separate your vote is quite complex.

I have yet to vote, I accompanied my mother to vote and even if people over 65 have priority it took her about 50 minutes in line and about three voting. Add the driving time back and forth and the fact that there is traffic near all polling places and it too all morning for her to vote. Later I went to see the lines and came to post after which I will go vote. (Strangely enough, I already wnet through the fingerprint process, at the center where I was I had to do that first, before I got in line, so that my vote is certainly randomized)

It looks like rain in Caracas later today and it is raining in the West of the country, which should be a factor.

I will tour polling places after I vote and report back.

As I begin to hear thunder again after a relatively dry
day, I can’t help but wonder about the bizarre events in Venezuela yesterday,
which make you wonder about the parody that this Government has become.

It appears as if somehow, certain rights have been
suspended in Venezuelan without anyone telling us about it.

According
to the Vice-Minister of Justice the Government “incauto”, which means
seized or confiscated, some Bs. 270 million in property from the Makled
brothers, which “will be passed on to the hands of the State”.

Now, I am not sure if the Makled brothers are guilty or
not. Just for background Aldala Makled is (was?) running for Mayor of Valencia
the capital of Carabobo State and about ten days ago, the same Vice-Minister said they had
found 400 Kgs. of cocaine at his brother’s farm. Because the candidate is
co-owner of the farm he was detained and their assets seized.

Note that the Makled brothers are rich and Aldala was not
running as part of the opposition, but as a candidate for his own small party.
He has irked Chavistas for using the same symbols and strategies as Chavez’
PSUV party, such as red shirts and giving away stuff to voters.

Among the assets seized are farms, companies, airplanes, yachts,
land, an airline (Aero postal), a foundation, cars, Hummers and a factory that
makes appliances.

I am not sure what laws this decision was based on, but a
time of such weak institutionality, to confiscate all these assets and transfer
them to the State without a trial and a sentence seems a little bit arbitrary
and certainly implies that the Chavez administration has already established
the guilt of these people before the fact.

Let alone that according to newspapers, the farm where the
drugs were supposedly found was run by Aldala’s brother who still at large and
the link to Aldala was only his ownership of it.

I am sure that some part of the Venezuelan legal code
allows this, but if it bothers me that this is done in this fashion, it bothers
me even more that I have yet to see anyone in the press wondering about this.