The Devil's Excrement

There is always something happening in Venezuela such that it is almost impossible to keep up with the news or report it all. From the lights going out at the end of both the last two games of the Venezuelan Championship (which Chavez has already said was sabotage), to Chavez calling day after day for a recall vote and the opposition ignores him, to the fact that Chavez’ Russian and Chinese buddies did not bid for the Carabobo heavy oil field, proving that for these New Age capitalists, the conditions were not attractive enough, i.e. profits did not look very good to bid for them. And how about Lula’s advisor Marco Aurelio Garcia saying that Venezuela’s electric network is quite deteriorated and Brazil would send advisors to help. Doesn’t he know this is not true and it’s all due to El Niño? El Niño Chavez, of course…

But as usual, something is happening behind the headlines in the economic front that needs to be reported:

1) Magical dual accounting

Only 21 days after the Government imposed a dual official exchange rate system, the Central Bank finally issued rules on how financial institutions will account for their assets in foreign currency. Think about it, usually you have an official rate and a parallel rate, all your assets in foreign currency, whether they are cash, bonds or even property, you account for at the official rate of exchange, i.e. until January 8th. you kept everything in foreign currency in your balance sheet at Bs. 2.15 per US$.

But now, we have a dual system and when the Government devalued it did not say how it should be done. People expected one rate or the other, but the Robolutionary Government in all its creativity and magical realism decided to have dual accounting rules, which not only make little sense, but should allow for some very creatve accounting.

So far the rules apply only to financial institutions, but we suspect they will be the same for all companies, financial or not:

i) All assets held in foreign currency will be accounted for at Bs. 2.6 per US$, except Venezuelan Sovereign bonds or other bonds issued by public entities, which will be accounted for at Bs. 4.3 per US$.

ii) The exception to the second part will be the so called TICC’s, inflation adjusted bonds which are denominated in US$, but whose capital and interest is paid in Bolivars at the official rate of exchange. The Government decided to this in order to save itself lots of money when making payment on these bonds which were supposed to “protect” you precisely from a devaluation. Thus, all companies that have no access to dollars at Bs. 2.6 per $, will have to value their bonds at this rate.

And you can bet (we don’t know yet) that dividends for those same companies will be repatraited at the higher rae of Bs. 4.3 per $ (i.e. they will give you fewer dollars). Thus, the Government as we say in Spanish “se pago y se dio el vuelto” (The Government paid and made change for itself at the same time)

But in an economy full of distortions, here is a new one, you can do a lot of creative accounting with these rules. Let me give you an example: Suppose your company lost money in 2010, say 1.5 million Bolivars, but you have one million dollars in an account abroad in cash. That million dollars is accounted for at Bs. 2.6 per dollar. Well, two days before the end of the year you buy two million dollars worth of Venezuela or PDVSA bonds and voila, you just made Bs. 1.7 million in profit by doing that since the bonds are valued at Bs. 4.3 per $.

Or suppose you are a bank and you made what Chavez would think is “too much” (i.e. a profit). Since banks have a nice portfolio of Venezuelan bonds, they can sell it and lose a bundle to “erase” some of the profits. (They go from bons at Bs. 4.3 per dollar to cash at Bs. 2.6 per dollar, weird, no?)

It’s magical accounting, courtesy of the revolution. In the end another distorsion…

2) And Giordani’s magical modelling

And Minister Giordani said that he expected GDP to gro wby 3 to 4% in 2010. Scary stuff, no? In 2009, when oil prices were low, he said Venezuelan GDP would grow by 4% in 2009, an error of some 170% given that the economy shrank by 2.9%. Well, if he is using the same spredsheet or model, then we could be shrinking by even a larger amount. Even worse, he is now Minister of both Planning and Finance!!!

3) More brokers intervened, more to come

Last week, three more brokers were intervened for losing their equity. Thus despite the assurances that the financial crisis was over, we have had three banks and four brokers intervened so far in 2010. I understand that more brokers are being examined with a magnifying glass and some may roll in the next few weeks. Additionally, I am still waiting for the bank Chavez said was in bad shape to fall.

And the guy in charge of intervening U21 said that there are no assets there to compensate anyone, but somehow nobody complains. Who had money there?

Stay Tuned!

Here is a translation of the press release by Amnesty International asking the Venezuelan Government to respect the rights of all Venezuelans to meet and express themselves as well as calling for the investigation of who was responsible for the dead and injured during the protests:

Following recent acts of violence occurring during the student protests in different cities for and against the waiver of RCTV International, Amnesty International called on the authorities to guarantee the right of assembly and expression for all people , and to ensure that the death of students Yosinio Carrillo Torres, 16, and Marcos Rosales, and the injuries suffered by dozens of other people, including demonstrators and members of law enforcement, are investigated and those responsible brought to justice.

The authorities must unequivocally condemn these serious abuses immediately and ensure that the police intervene only to protect the integrity and life of all persons seeking to exercise their legitimate right to meeting.

The state has a duty to maintain order always making sure that security forces use force, including the use of firearms, only when it is strictly necessary and in accordance with a principle of proportionality, without infringing in any torture or punishment cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, such as specified by international standards of human rights and the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

“The right to assembly is a fundamental right, but not a right to violent protest. Demonstrators and their leaders must ensure that no use of violence, “specified Amnesty International.

What happened during the the last few days is not an isolated event. In the past 13 months when protests have increased markedly in Venezuela about 600 protesters were injured, at least 14 with gunshot wounds, and 9 protesters are dead. According to reports, most were killed by security forces, armed groups of civilians who are government supporters who claim their actions or by unidentified civilians.

Amnesty International is extremely concerned by the deterioration of freedom of expression in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. All rights, including the right to freedom of expression and assembly must be respected and society must realize that they were respected.

The non-renewal or suspension of licenses of television and radio, as happened in 2007 with RCTV and last year when it revoked the license to 34 radio stations, together with the recent suspension of four cable television channels, including RCTV Internacional, shows disrespect by the authorities to the legitimate work of the media, especially when these are known for their editorial criticism of the government.

“While the media must abide by the provisions of the law, closing a media outlet should be a last resort and a measure that should only be implemented after being given all the guarantees of due process, including the right to present a defense and appeal, “said Amnesty International.

If the Venezuelan government is committed to the values of the rule of law it must promote, protect and respect the right to freedom of expression and assembly and celebrate the importance and positive contribution in a state of law and transparency play criticism, Amnesty says International.

Reader Deanna took a stab at translating Laureano Marquez’ article in Tal Cual which is here in Spanish (see previous post), not bad at all!. Thanks! For those that don’t speak Spanish, here it is:

Venezuela without Esteban by Laureano Marquez in Tal Cual

A Venezuela without Esteban is difficult to imagine, but all the scientists agree in pointing out that the day when the President will leave the government is nearer everyday and they have made a documentary for the History Channel which will relate how Venezuela will be when the Head of State is no longer…

…FIRST DAY WITHOUT ESTEBAN: People can’t really believe it and they begin to live in a state of confusión.  Pro-former government armed groups destroy all that’s left of the country (which fortunately was very Little)…

Some who are already completely crazy continue applauding in Miraflores  and screaming UH AH…Martha Colomina and Miguel Angel Rodriguez take the plaza Bolivar with a group of motorcyclists and surround Lina Ron…Venevision declares itself furiously anti-Chavez.

…FIRST MONTH WITHOUT ESTEBAN: Some people have not reacted yet, thinking that he will return at any moment.  People stop buying dollars like crazy.  Most of the militant members of PSUV say that they never imagined that the government did all those atrocities that were beginning to be uncovered and that they didn’t know…Humanitarian aid arrives in the country…

…SIX MONTHS WITHOUT ESTEBAN: …Nicaragua and Cuba claim their monthly allowances before the Court of The Have.  The first investors arrive in the country.  The Chavista deputies begin to notice that the laws they had approved are really antidemocratic because now they are being applied to them, and they contribute in the effort to change them.  All the political prisoners who had been judged arbitrarily or detained without trial are now free.  Esteban continues living in Cuba with the excuse that without him “in Venezuela no one lives” and tries singing in the Tropicana.

…TEN YEARS WITHOUT ESTEBAN:…The first signs of economic reactivation begin to appear.  There are now foreign investors with more confidence.  Venezuela’s international image begins to improve and after two periods of political alternability without trouble, the people begin to believe in the solidity of democracy.  Venezuelans who left the country during  the government of Esteban begin to return “en masse” attracted by this good international image and by the reform of social security which guarantees a decent health system for all citizens.  Sugar can again be found in the supermarkets.

… …TWENTY YEARS WITHOUT ESTEBAN:…Fidel Castro dies officially and Raul asks Esteban to leave Cuba.  Esteban returns to the country.  Jose Vicente Rangel denounces in his Sunday program the corruption of his government and gives the names of those who bécame rich except one.  The ex-president goes for an audition in Venevision to lead Sabado Sensacional, which to this day is still without a Master of Ceremonies, but the channel portrays him negatively (¿)(le pinta una del tamaño de la colina) and denounces the atrocities of his government and the repugnant complicity of some people.  Esteban dedicates himself to the family estates in Barinas, in the middle of constant protests from his workers for better salaries and capitalist exploitation.

…ONE HUNDRED YEARS WITHOUT ESTEBAN:…The end of the Venezuelan 20^th century and the beginning of the 21^st is now only a bad memory.  The period is studied as an example of what should not be done with a country.  Many historians say that Venezuela entered the 21^st century when Esteban lost his power.  People are surprised to see the videos of how he ruled the country, how he treated the citizens and his own ministers.  Many believe that it is a joke from the oldest comic show of Venezuelan television, Radio Rochela, which is again on the air in open telepathic signal.

The ex-president goes for an audition in Venevision to lead Sabado Sensacional, which to this day is still without a Master of Ceremonies, but the channel portrays him negatively (¿)(le pinta una del tamaño de la colina) and denounces the atrocities of his government and the repugnant complicity of some people.  Esteban dedicates himself to the family estates in Barinas, in the middle of constant protests from his workers for better salaries and capitalist exploitation.

For those that like to argue that RCTV was shut down because the law said so, let me remind you that the company went to the Supreme Court in 2007 to contest the shutdown of its air wave concession and has yet to hear from any of the suits and injunctions that have been brought to in fron of the Highest Court of the land since then. Some “Justice”, no?

Which brings us to the curent case, in which PSF’s and fanatics also parrot all the stuff about the “Law” and “legality” in a country in which this is quite rare, if it exists at all.

And yesterday RCTV Internacional’s lawyers went to the Supreme Court once again to appeal the decision by CONATEL, not that they necessarily expect an answer, given the recent history of the biased Supreme Court (controlled?)

The legal argument is quite simple if you are willing to take the time, even my favorite PSF’s and trolls should be able to understand them, if they bother to read them, which I doubt:

First of all, the “Law” did not include any provisions for cable and satellite operators. These are regulations created “a posteriori” by the regulator that defined what is a national broadcaster or not. As you know, they said that if a company produces more than 70% of its content, it is consider “National” and has to carry Chávez long and boring speeches whenever he feels he has to tells us something, however inmaterial.

This arbitrary regulation was decreed on December 22nd. 2009.  Because Art. 24 of the Venezuelan Constitution says very clearly: No legalislative disposition can have a retroactive effect, then, this became the law or the regulation only on that date,not earlier. It would be illegal to apply it earlier.

But RCTV Internacional was shut down on Jan. 23d. based on Conatel’s evaluation on the 90 days prior to the shut down, despite the fact that since Dec. 22nd. RCTV Internacional has broadcast less than the 70% of its programming made in Venezuela, in order to be considered an international cable or satellite channel and thus not be required (by LAW!) to broadcast Chávez’ “Cadenas”.

In fact, despite the claim by the Minister of Telecommunications that RCTV has not gone to the regulator, on Jan. 13th. RCTV laywers handed in 5 boxes of documentation showing that RCTV has adjusted its programming, so as not to be considered a national broadcaster.

But Chavismo is not known for its respect of its own Constitution or the Law, just for the fanatical parroting of the official line (As given by the Dictator) without any thought or interpretation.

The question is whether we will ever hear or not from the Supreme Court. Call me skeptical, but I doubt it, not as long as Chávez controls the destinty of all of its members.

Yesterday, during the introduction of Apple’s new product the Ipad, it appeared as if the company joined the Evil Empire as millions saw the demo of the iPad showing the New York Times page and right there on the middle right side, the headline:

“Anti-Chavez channel is taken down”

If paranoid Hugo saw that picture, I am sure he would reach the same conclusion…

Of course, those on the other side feel it was the other way around, the good guys at Apple are actually on our side and wanted to show it!!!

(To M.G., thanks!)

This week the Venezuelan Nazional Guard unveiled a new weapon in its fight to injure and hurt protesting students. As can bee seen in the picture below, Guards showed up yesterday in at least two cities of the country with a chain with hooks at the end, meant to entangle and injure the students. Such hooks are surely to tear muscle and skin and break a few bones in the process. The guards did not use their new weapons in their debut day, perhaps to their chagrin.

Respect for the “people” and their rights have truly reached a new low under Hugo Chávez

For a man intent into taking Venezuelan into the Dark Ages, it was a remarkable admission that modernity can be a threat to Hugo Chavez and his fake revolution. As students used the Internet and its tools like Twitter as wel as other modern tools like SMS messaging to mobilize and communicate strategy instantly, Hugo Chavez made his second attack on the Internet in a single week, calling the rumors and use of this technology “terrorism”:

A week ago Chavez had said that his supporters had to watch out for the Internet and tonight he came on TV wearing a suit, rather than his usual red garb and began reading messages (which were too long to be from Twitter), calling it terrorism (right at the end, minute 3:50 or so)

Can Chavez really expect that his trusted friend and confidant resigns as Vice-President and Minister of Defense for “personal reasons” (and his wife as Minister of the Environment) and there will be no rumors?

Chavez repeated again his wish, which the opposition has paid absolutely no attention to, that to get rid of him his opponents had to call for a recall referendum, a tool that would not only be distracting, but quite difficult to achieve as the recall votes would have to exceed the number of votes he got in his Presidential reelection in 2006. (Chavez has made such a call four times in the last three weeks and seems frustrated by the lack of even a response) This would be difficult given the resources of the Government as well as the difficulty of mobilizing the voters at this time. The opposition wants to concentrate in the legislative elections in September, letting Chavez ride the harvest of his own incompetence until 2012 when his term expires.

The truth is that it is the Government has the weapons in this fight and is the one that has sponsored the violence against the students, who in turn have managed to use peaceful means to stop the violence like today at Government’s TV station VTV. But it was the Tupamaros who caused most of the violence in Merida, aided by the local law enforcement agencies. And it was Chavez who was seen mingling with Lina Ron in his Saturday rally, a woman that has led armed attacks on marches and was imprisoned in January 2009 for leading a violent attack against Globovision. Chavez can’t attack the opposition on the protests as the students have led the protests and do not respond to the political leaders of the opposition parties.

In the end it is ironic how Chavez evokes the fundamentalism of his Iranians buddies, who have also referred to the Internet and Twitter as terrorists, which is mocked in this hilarious cartoon below:

But in the end, besides feeling the threat from a weapon Chavez does not control or understand totally, maybe his key problem is that he could never make adequate use of it. For a man accustomed to uninterrupted speeches of six to eight hours, it must be simply impossible to even consider the possibility of communicating anything in 140 characters.

(It’s El Niño’s fault? Ja! Ja! Ja!)

Today’s El Nacional has this table compiled from the country’s Electric Corporation which shows the performance of the different thermoelectric power plants managed by CADAFE:

As you can see, of the total generation capacity of 4,507 MW installed, barely 941 MW or 20.9 % of the installed capacity, demonstrating that the problems we are having have little to do with the level of the Guri dam or the atmospheric phenomenon El Niño, but have  more to do with the sheer incompetence and the lack of investment in maintenance of “Er Niño Chávez” and the people he has surrounded himself with, mostly mediocre military who can not tell the difference between a MW and a MHz.

But the sheer incompetence of the robolution can bee seen right there in that table, the Josefa Camejo plant in Falcón State was started and built by the Chávez administration, but it only produces a fraction of its potential because someone forgot to build the associated transmission lines. Thus, the plant produces too much for the nearby cities and is not part of the interconnected system, running at a lower capacity. Way to go Hugo!

The remarkable thing is that Chávez continues to blame the problem on the Guri dam and on the projects for hydroelectric power plants that he stopped in order to favor thermoelectric projects that either don’t exist and/or work as well as the table above shows.

There are so many things going on in Venezuela tonight, that it is better to let pictures tell some of the stories as we await the detailed news.

In Caracas, this is the way people are watching the Caracas-Magallanes game of the finals of Venezuela’s baseball seaosn:

In Merida, a city of students, confrontations between police and students leads to the death of a student, a real tragedy no matter which side he is on. At this hour, the city is a battleground, students burn tires, more than 30 cars have burned and nothing will bring that young man to life now:

Meanwhile, far from all this mess, in Washington DC a “Chavez Tas Ponchao” sign was placed in front of the Venezuelan Embassy at 2409 California Ave.:

Oh yeah! I forgot, the Minister of Defense and Vice-President resigned today. So did the Minister of the Environment and the President of Banco de Venezuela who also had a position as “Something” for Public Banking. We now have Reyes Reyes as VP, a really radical General as Minister of Defense, and incompetent Jackie Farias, she of the water system (Don’t we have water shortages?) and a terrible job as Head of the Caracas Government, will now protect our Enviroment (from Chavez?)

Just another day in the failed robolution, more when I can digest all this. (Or when it can be digested)

Tonight’s third game of the Magallanes Caracas series became a hot bed for protests, from Chavez Tas Ponchao (Chavez you’ve struck out!) to these people with red muzzles with the RCTV T-shirts. Funny how Venevision barely showed the protest while sports TV station Meridiano showed all the posters and people protesting. Marcel Granier of RCTV today publicly accused Gustavo Cisneros, owner of Venevision, to be in cahoots with Chavez.

Hope the series goes the seven games. Additionally the Caribbean Series will take place in Margarita Island and I hope the protests extends there