The Devil's Excrement

Corruption is so rampant in Venezuela that the SEC caught a US company paying PDVSA employees some US$ 348,000 in commissions. The company admitted that it had made the payments. Of course, nothing has been done on this end, because if someone were to be accused or fired the lid of the whole cesspool could become undone.

And speaking of corruption, how about the Cabinet’s lawyer Marisol Plaza who was fired while I was away. The reason? She gave a legal opinion two years ago that the infamous Bandagro bonds, which have never been recognized by any Venezuelan Government since they started floating around twenty years ago, were legitimate. This decision was later reversed, but is now the bases for a suit asking for the Government to pay US$ 1.3 billion for them. Reportedly, someone fed her the wrong information on purpose. Other say she was paid to give that opinion. If the Republic loses, will she just get a slap in the hand of fired for her incompetence

Laureano Marquez makes fun of Chavez’ threat to burn the oil fields in today’s Tal Cual with his usual keen sense of humor:

Diary of a Kamikaze by Laureano Marquez

Day ONE: The invasion is imminent. Training begins tomorrow. The buddies have organized a farewell party.

The party was truly good.

We danced until late hours of the night and hit the drinks hard to prepare are souls for the destiny awaiting us.

The boss guaranteed that in the afterlife the party will continue and then we will have ten unopened bottles of 18 year old Scotch each. At the end of the meeting, Yefelson, John Fisyerald, Washinton Rodriguez and myself burned the US flag to get our attitude ready.

Day TWO: Today we did not go to training.

Day THREE: Today we took matters seriously.

We had a problem with the clothing because the co-op that makes the endogenous vests in which we were going to place the explosives stole the money and did not make them. The commander of the squadron says it does not matter that we can tie the sticks with masking tape directly on our bellies and we can put on a poncho from the Andes so as not to be noticed. The problem is that I have to do the El Palito refinery and I am not going to get into that heat bath with an Andean poncho on.

Day FOUR: The explosives technicians have yet to bring us the sticks. In any case, today we did a general practice run and we cut a number of brooms stocks, which we cut into little sticks to simulate the stuff. The feeling was truly uncomfortable.

Day FIVE: At last the explosives arrived (among them many Bin Ladens) withthe ponchos

Because the gringos should only find ashes we started burning the country with forest fires taking advantage of the heat wave.

Day SIX: Today we had a false alarm of the invasion because a pigeon activated the anti-aircraft system. We almost burned the oil fields.

Thanks God that most of us overslept and that for the few that did go, the explosives did not work.

Day SEVEN:The time is coming…they will bite the dust in defeat. The whole team is ready and operative, but we have had three days with no food in the camp. We did not meet today. If we get no food tomorrow, we are going to block the access to the oil wells and if they throw the Guard at us, we are going to use the explosives and apply to them the Plan “Leveled Earth”. I am starting to believe that the National Guard is controlled by the CIA.

Day EIGHT:Today they brought us hamburgers from McDonald’s. they were really good.

We are staring to think that even if they blow up the oil wells, the McDonald’s should remain standing. Since we had little else to do, after eating, we played sandlot baseball.

Day NINE: Since it does not look like the gringos will arrive today, we went to the river to make a fish stew. Just in case, we took all the equipment. The Governor of Miranda arrived in a surprise visit and Yefelson almost blew him up, because he thought he was a gringo with his blue eyes.

Thanks God he was eating and he does not let a plate of fish stew out of hid hands even for the homeland.

Day TEN: Today is the day. We went to the beach to wait for them. We were there until ten A.M. and they did not come. I think they are now afraid of us, because they saw us via satellite and they thought we were serious about the whole thing. I am glad we brought the dominoes and a cooler full of beers to kill time, which is also a gringo invention.

And the beat goes on at the revolution as reported in today’s Financial
times (Of course, everything is fine at PDVSA and oil production is
booming according to the Government):

Venezuela buys Russian oil to avoid defaults

Venezuela, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, has struck a $2bn
deal to buy about 100,000 barrels a day of crude oil from Russia until
the end of the year.

Venezuela has been forced to turn to an outside source to avoid
defaulting on contracts with “clients” and “third parties” as it faces a
shortfall in production, according to a person familiar with the deal.
Venezuela could incur penalties if it fails to meet its supply
contracts.

So we have a new Electoral Board (CNE) which at this times looks like three people that lean towards the Government and two that do not. I guess we could not have expected any different. However, I do not like at all that Tibisay Lucena is part of it. You can be for or against someone but that does not mean you will act according to what you are told, violate people’s rights and the law. Tibisay Lucena did all that in the last few years voting the party line at all times, she should not be there.I am glad Battaglini was not there. In my mind he was a perverse character, always operating in the shadows, but defending what he did at all times. He lobbied hard to repeat. Good Riddance.

Vicente Diaz, in theory one of the members who is not pro-Chavez, has already said the law should be fullfilled and all votes should be counted and the manual count contrasted with the electronic one. Good for him. I will not give the backgrounds of each member, I am sure you will find pages on that by the end of the day all over the place. Since I am an optimist, this CNE has to be better than the old one, at least two unethical people have been removed from it. However, I am not happy by the praise by the CNE’s new President German Yepez for the old CNE.

After some
very
inappropriate remarks at a press conference expressly held for that purpose yesterday by Venezuelan General Prosecutor Isaias
Rodriguez, giving out contradictory, premature and imprudent information about the
case of the priest found dead in a Hotel in Caracas, The Head of the Investigative
Police Marcos Chavez has
just given a press conference totally discrediting Isaias Rodriguez, as if
this was possible.

The press
conference was held to announce the detention of the man who supposedly murdered
the priest, who was the secretary of the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference. The
version of the investigative police is diametrically opposite to the sexual
innuendo and details contained in the General Prosecutor’s press conference yesterday,
despite Rodriguez’ assurances that he wanted to be very clear and all of the information
he was divulging had “been confirmed” and he was speaking out in order to stop
the “mediated matrix” that was being created by the media.

The Head
of the investigative police in contrast with Rodriguez said today that the main
theory at this time for the homicide was robbery by the suspect captured this
afternoon. Moreover, the same pharmaceutical product that the Prosecutor said
was “known to be used for sexual enhancement” was said by Marcos Chavez to have
been used to sedate the priest (Slight difference!). He also said that it was
the suspected murderer who checked into the hotel, while the Prosecutor General
said it was the priest himself.

Once
again, we see the world of politics and lies in which this sad character of the
revolution lives in without shame. Isaias Rodriguez has done nothing but manipulate
and lie in his position, skirting the responsibilities imposed on him. He has
not been independent and has repeatedly gone after political cases, persecuting
his enemies and protecting the supporters of the revolution. This case will change
nothing; Rodriguez is safe in his position to abuse and violate the rights of
all Venezuelans, as he serves the immoral revolution without question in what
is supposed to be an independent power.

Just to prove the point, the Prosecutor General, once again, immediately sought an interview over the radio and said “that 90% of what he said was true” as if this was a mathematical game and not the search for the truth in enforcing the law. Ninety percent just does not cut it when you hold his position and publicly bickering, talking and discussing cases is totally inappropiate. Moreover, his main point yesterday was that the murder was being blamed on the crime wave sweeping the country, which was not the case, but the police today is ratifying the accusation by the church that it was a robbery.

Earlier
yesterday, Rodriguez had said that he will try to prosecute potential
Presidential candidate Manuel Rosales, which was quickly dealt by Rosales today
who
said: “ They are getting scared very quickly…the only elements to follow a
case against me is that I have defeated Chavez a few times and I will continue
defeating him”, making Rodriguez today’s main punching bag in Venezuela.

This picture of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was taken during his Sunday reality/variety show “Alo Presidente” last Sunday which he transmitted from one of the headquarters of the Government’s popular market Mercal. It speaks for itself. I would like to open a contest, to thank all of my faithfull readers as I approach the one million page-read mark, for the best caption to the picture below which answers the question:

Why does Hugo Chavez have a bag of powdered milk on his head in the picture?

As Chief blogger, I appoint ghost blogger Jorge Arena as the judge for the best caption. The prize: Your choice of any book in the New York Times best seller non-fiction or fiction list.

While my entry is invalid, I start the contest with:

“It fell from the sky on his head and he did not even notice it.”

(Note: This is not photoshopped, this is a real picture)

The
meeting today between Presidential candidates Teodoro Petkoff, Julio Borges
and the Governor of Zulia and likely candidate Manuel Rosales, give me a good
opportunity to comment on the developments on the potential opposition
candidates during the month that I was away.

A lot of
people I think have been over analyzing the subject of the possible primaries.
There is very little history of primaries in Venezuela and while it is true that
Hugo Chavez has the popularity and the money to win outright in the December elections,
leaving cheating and such matters outside the discussion, there is still a lot
of time to change things between now and December. In fact, at this same point in time in 1998,
Irene Saez had 45% of the preferences of voters, while Hugo Chavez had only 10%
and in 1993, Oswaldo Alvarez Paz had just won the first open primary held by a
party in the country’s history, upsetting Copei’s favorite Eduardo Fernandez,
giving him a commanding lead in the race. Two months later Rafael Caldera,
Copei’s own founder, came back to Venezuela,
announced his candidacy, was embraced by the left and an overconfident Alvarez Paz not only lost the
election, but came in third, behind Caldera and Claudio Fermin.

But so
far, what I have seen is quite positive. Sumate comes out and proposes a
primary. Petkoff announces he is a candidate and talks about specifics. Borges
announces his program. Rosales suggests
he is ready to jump in with all his guns. People ask who anointed Sumate to do
the primary and Sumate responds that they are ready to do it only if wanted. All
three of these candidates meet and agree
that there is a need for a single candidate, ask the other two candidates to
join them and say that the single candidate may be chosen in a primary or by
whatever other method they may agree with. Thus, a positive political message
is being sent, something that has not been seen in local politics in quite a
long time. I can’t argue against that.

Can Chavez
manipulate the process? Of course he can, but some of these guys may not be
charismatic, but they are politically savvy and can fight back. In fact, by
agreeing on three or four topics for their own proposals, they can indirectly
show the lack of accomplishments by the Chavez administration. If they can hit a
cord, a lot of damage can be done to Chavez, his autocratic style and
inefficient and corrupt administration.

There are obviously dangers, but hey, this is not soccer
or a baseball game, you have to risk something and you may be wrong in your
strategy. Some may lose and some may win. The opposition candidates need to
continue playing the positive card to contrast themselves to Chavez and his
style. What they can not do is start blasting each other each day, wearing each
other down and setting up the winner in a plate to Chavez to feast on after a
single candidate is selected. So far, indications are that at least the three
candidates that met today understand this quite well.

I disagree with arguments such as the fact that primaries
are popularity contests that select the most popular person and not necessarily
the best one. Hey! That is what democracy is! Whether people vote with their
hormones, their guts or their stomachs is a fact of daily democratic life and
you have to live with that. How do you think we got stuck with Chavez? I also
fail to see how the winner of the primary will be mince meat for Chavez. On the
contrary, the victor, if in unity, should be strengthened as it typically
happens in most democracies with primaries. And even before, the opposition
needs to get people to get excited about going out and voting. If an equal
number of people that voted in the recall against Chavze went to the primary,
it could create a very touchy and tight situation for an Hugo Chavez who at
this time looks overconfident that he will win

Then, there is the pure democratic argument that I have made for years: Venezuela needs more democracy not less. I am still amazed that all of the major five candidates for President in 1998 were all self appointed and self annointed saviors, who ran without the benefit of any collective body larger than a few dozen friends choosing them. This was a disgrace for people who call themselves democrats and simply represented the summary of the history of Venezuela’s modern democracy, something Chavez said he was going to change and included in the new Constitution but has done nothing about, like with most of his promises. In this area, he has also been more of the same, denying his own party the democratic rights that it put into the new Constitution.

I also don’t buy the argument about Chavez sending his
people out to change the primary result. First, I don’t think he has the
machinery to pull it off, witness the parliamentary election low turnout. But I
also think that by the time the event takes place, one of the candidates will
have pulled a clear and irreversible lead.

All I am saying is that so far events have developed in a
much more positive manner than I thought possible a month ago. Moreover, the
opposition candidates are receiving wide coverage. If I had to choose a candidate in
terms of ability to establish a long term sensible program for the country, I
would choose Petkoff, but my feeling is that it is Rosales that has the best
chance at beating the autocrat. Petkoff will be an uncomfortable candidate for Chavez;
Chavez can’t question his leftwing political credentials. But the Government
seems more concerned about Rosales, as demonstrated by today’s
cynical statement by the Prosecutor General that he will ask the
Supreme Court to allow him to try Rosales for going to the Presidential Palace
on April 12^th. 2002, the day after Rosales expressed his clear
intent to run.

The fireworks have begun!

After
Chavez’s whim to have Venezuela withdraw from the Andean Pact seems to have
backfired among some of his allies who have called for Venezuela to change its
decision, the autocrat responded in his usual non-democratic and disrespectful
fashion, saying that he is willing to reconsider if both Colombia and Peru
withdraw their intention to join the free trade Treaty with the US.

Chavez’ decision reportedly took even the Foreign Minister by surprise. Venezuela does benefit from the Andean Pact and
certainly will have a difficult time benefiting from Mercosur, which we just
joined, not only because the other participating countries are better developed
than Venezuela
and the Andean pact countries, but also because Mercosur partners have already
been involved in it for years. Even worse for Venezuela,
the Andean Pact is actually a strong generator of jobs, since it is the
manufacturing sector which generates 70% of the employment in Venezuela. But Chávez
could care less about this. All he cares about is for his regional leadership,
how to project it and promote it. He does not believe in know-how or knowledge,
he relies in his gut feeling and political hates and desires. There are also
issues like respect and sovereignty that Chavez is violating with his demand,
which Chavez always appeals to whenever anyone gives an opinion, however bland,
about his Government or Venezuela.Cost and
inefficiencies are obviously not a problem for Chavez, as Venezuela began
on January 1st. to use all of the Andean Pact forms and formats, including
changing passports to the Andean passport, which was part of a long term plan,
which Chavez had to know about. This improvisation is captured very well in
today’s Tal Cual by Weil’s usually incisive cartoon:

(Women comes in with her hard to get new passport with the Andean pact format, just as man reads that Venezuela is withdrawing from it)

Crime has
become a very severe problem in Venezuela.
Last July I showed
some statistics prepared by Human Rights organization Provea, using official
Government data which showed an almost three fold increase in crime since
Chavez took over nationwide. The same statistics showed that some progress was
made on this issue in the mid 90’s. There is no single reason for this dramatic
increase in crime, but the Chavez administration has never made this an
important issue and up to a month ago, the autocrat himself would not even
mention the topic. Of course, the deterioration and politization of the
Venezuelan police has contributed dramatically to the problem, as the cleansing
of police forces of those not loyal to the process has removed many of the best
trained professionals in those forces. This has led not only to an increase in
crime, but the obvious involvement of police forces in criminal acts, as in the
recent Faddoul case, but also to a huge increase of a factor of FIVE in the
number of deaths caused by policemen during the same years.

The results are obviously tragic as more than 70,000 civilians have died in
criminal acts in the last seven years. This affects mostly the poor and the young,
which led last Saturday to a protest organized by a group of university
students to “lay down for life”. The protest by well-covered with
lots of pictures by Daniel,
so I will not go over the details, but it was a huge success and addressed a
very important problem for all Venezuelans. I complain a lot about the lack of
involvement by people in what is happening in Venezuela,
but participation was not only quite a success, but the picture below, shamelessly
stolen from Daniel’s blog, shows the level of commitment by some to demand the
respect of human rights in Venezuela.

-In this “democracy” things are not even discussed anymore between independent powers. On March 16th. Minister of Oil Ramirez sent a memo “ordering” the National Assembly to approve the contracts for the new oil partnerships.They obviously did, you don’t argue with the autocrat.

-Curiously, for the champions of “sovereignty”, the approved contracts include international arbitrage, as ordered by Ramirez.

-And the new Cuban/Venezuelan oil company in which Cuba has 51% allows for Cuba to sell oil in the international markets, essentially giving a “legal” framework to what had been happening all along. Nice deal, you buy oil at preferential prices and preferential interest rates, don’t even pay for it, and then turn around and sell it at international prices. Ahora PDVSA es del pueblo…cubano? (Now PDVSA belongs to the…Cuban people?)

-The total amount of the gasoline subsidy (gasoline is sold at 4.46 US$ cents per liter or 17 US$ cents per gallon) is 14.5% of the National Budget or three times what is spent on the “Misiones”. By the way, my share of the subsidy as one that is in the top 25% of the population by income is ten times larger than that of those in the bottom quartile.

-In an article in today’s Wall Street Journal, that newspaper suggests that Chavez will also nationalize the heavy oil partnerships. Given the huge amount of resources required to further exploit the Orinoco tar sands and the fact that PDVSA has no money to do it on its own, this would mean that there will be no more new heavy oil projects in the foreseeable future. .

As someone said today, Chavez is so sure of winning in December that he no longer even gives a damn about Venezuelans.